Just can't get any of these teams to play for me at the moment as the Cubs go down 3-2 after giving up a solo shot in the 8th. They'll play great the day before or after but not the day I have them.
So, if there's anyone out there following this, I gained 12.11 units in the first 11 days of the season and now have lost 11.27 in the last 7 coming into today. I tested a strategy last season that adjusts the team numbers for that day's starting pitchers which in theory would make the overall system even stronger. I tested it a little bit last year with legitimate success and have been testing it side by side with the regular numbers that I've been using all the way this season so far and the pitcher adjustments have been solidly better. I hadn't used these adjustments yet since I'm waiting for enough of a sample size to deem worthy of messing with what worked so well last year, even if it's an improvement in theory which I firmly believe it is.
This past week when the losing streak started, I started experimenting and laying off some plays that the pitching adjustments didn't agree with. Despite the consistent success I've seen from these adjustments (that I know is going to improve the overall body of work) I've managed to eliminate a 6-2 +4.76 unit mark from the normal plays, which has further accelerated the losing streak of the past week. I'm chalking that up to just an anomoly after only 8 games but it adds to the unpleasant feeling of the losing streak. Anyway, I expect those decisions to benefit the results in the long run.
Okay, so as to why I believe this streak may not be as bad as it looks. The culprit to this point has been the larger favorites. Now, before any of you say "See? Big faves are not profitable!" I'll go back to what I stated in the opening post of this thread, which is favorites last year with the same work hit over 65% (560 games worth) and produced over 87% of all the profit. I'll repeat...87% of all this system's profit last year was due to favorites. I let the results shape what prices I'm willing to lay.
More exactly though, the problem has been the home favorites over -150 and road favorites over -130. I go up to -180 and -160 respectively because that's where the system has shown it's profit window to max out at over 1,800 games last year. In fact, last year, home favorites between -150 and -180 and road favorites between -130 and -160 produced results of 126-54 +43.18 (the rest of the smaller faves and underdogs went 371-291 +91.06). This year the same bigger faves have gone 8-15 -15.00 while the rest have gone 53-39 +19.73. That's for all the qualifying plays from the system, including the 6-2 +4.76 I've eliminated recently.
Something that stands out is that I didn't start my data from last year until May 17th (as I stated in post #1), which is a year ago yesterday, so I don't know if the larger faves were this rocky up to this date last season. The reason I'm optimistic going forward during this rough stretch is that (A) we're just getting into the time of year that I started my data last year so things can be compared fairly now, but mainly (B) that as more games enters the database (and especially over different seasons) I may find that lowering the max money lines to -150 for home and -130 for road produces a higher profit margin, which would mean in the future that 8-15 -15.00 mark so far would never have happened. For now, I'm sticking with the limits where they are but I'll be watching closely but I may be adding these pitching adjustments permanently soon.
Yesterday: 0-1 -1.50
Season: 55-51 +0.84 units (each game = 1 unit)
Today
LA Dodgers +114
Seattle +125
