Stanford MDs: COVID-19 death toll estimates may be orders of magnitude too high

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We have a treasure trove of data on this virus which tells us exactly which sectors of the population are immune and which ones are at risk. The government just blew 2.2 trillion dollars (half band-aid, half pork "solutions") while forcing healthy immune productive citizens to remain idle, ergo driving the economy into the ditch. For how long? Weeks? Months? None of the "experts" can tell us.

Do you honestly believe this is the most efficient, effective way of dealing with this problem?

Like other members in the large family of corona viruses, this latest strain isn't going away. Are we going to repeat this stupidity in the fall when flu season starts up again?

Fluid question obviously so I'll just answer it in a simple way. On March 29th as we're talking, do I think a nationwide lockdown to flatten the curve and curb the growth of the virus is correct?

Yeah, as we see with the rapidly rising death rate, it has already begun to infect huge swaths of our cities. Even if the old people stay home (how would this work? Who is old? Who has pre-existing conditions? Do fat people stay home? Do diabetics?) This country has a degree of health issues in certain areas that other countries don't. Younger people in 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's can go to the ICU as well and having people die because they can't breathe in hallways en masse is not going to be good. We can debate death rates all day long, but what spikes the death rate is crowded hospitals.

I dunno how long it'll have to last (I don't really wanna debate this part but I think it'll be longer than shorter, the lockdown for the last few weeks has sucked) but once you get to that Mid March range and you are so far behind the curve, I think we just gotta take our medicine (no pun intended)

Hopefully we'll be far more prepared for this type of thing going forward so if/when it comes back, it won't be as lethal. Similar to 9/11 really. Might have a vaccine then, herd immunity, etc....I would imagine we never have to deal with something like this again but you never know.
 

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“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory has been won,” Trump said at an evening press briefing after suggesting that the coronavirus death rate would likely peak in two weeks.

Social distancing until April 30th.


 

Rx Normal
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Where is this treasure trove of data you speak of that tells us who the immune people are that can safely go back to work

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html

Further:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

-1x-1.png
 

Nirvana Shill
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Welcome to the life of a career bureaucrat, where being wrong gets you a promotion.

Run a useless model projecting a "worst case scenario" and release those numbers scaring the shit out of the public. Then when these spectacularly wrong predictions don't come to pass, tell us how their brilliance saved our lives.

From 1.2m-1.7m...now 100-200k...french kissing spreads AIDS...

I can't believe Trump is listening to this clown. :ohno:

no way these people would ever predict a lower projection..its always going to get bumped up …. just saying
 

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“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory has been won,” Trump said at an evening press briefing after suggesting that the coronavirus death rate would likely peak in two weeks.

Social distancing until April 30th.



"A wise and prudent decision" - President Fauci

Meanwhile, while Congress broke the bank with their 2.2 trillion "stimulus" a record 3.3m Americans filed for unemployment this week.

We are so screwed.

:neenee:
 

Rx Normal
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Welcome to the life of a career bureaucrat, where being wrong gets you a promotion.

Run a useless model projecting a "worst case scenario" and release those numbers scaring the shit out of the public. Then when these spectacularly wrong predictions don't come to pass, tell us how their brilliance saved our lives.

From 1.2m-1.7m...now 100-200k...french kissing spreads AIDS...

I can't believe Trump is listening to this clown. :ohno:

HA! Right on cue!

<yt-formatted-string force-default-style="" class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="word-break: break-word;">Dr. Birx Says Coronavirus Would Have Killed 1.6 - 2.2 Million Americans if Economy Not Shut Down</yt-formatted-string>

 

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HA! Right on cue!

<yt-formatted-string force-default-style="" class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="word-break: break-word;">Dr. Birx Says Coronavirus Would Have Killed 1.6 - 2.2 Million Americans if Economy Not Shut Down</yt-formatted-string>


Amazing, we are not even two weeks into these "lockdowns"/"shelter-in-place" and we did all that, did we?
 

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That is 1 of the few areas of political life where I sympathize with politicians.

If you take a massive preventive measure during crisis and it works, people will never see what you prevented but only what you sacrificed...

(unfortunately Keynesians use this argument to print a ton of money in the face of recessions and always say GD2 is/was at the doorstep, but I digress....)
 

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That is 1 of the few areas of political life where I sympathize with politicians.

If you take a massive preventive measure during crisis and it works, people will never see what you prevented but only what you sacrificed...

(unfortunately Keynesians use this argument to print a ton of money in the face of recessions and always say GD2 is/was at the doorstep, but I digress....)

Well sure. Vit-turd/Mango just started a thread on that very thing.
 

Rx Normal
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That is 1 of the few areas of political life where I sympathize with politicians.

If you take a massive preventive measure and it works, people will never see what you prevented but only what you sacrificed...

(unfortunately Keynesians use this argument to print a ton of money in the face of recessions and always say GD2 is/was at the doorstep, but I digress....)

Epidemiologists use the same playbook as economists.

As an Austrian, what do you make of all this central planning?
 

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Epidemiologists use the same playbook as economists.

As an Austrian, what do you make of all this central planning?

I think global pandemics rewrite the rules of ideology pretty quickly. Fed/state govts just deciding what is optimal messaging at this point and everyone is on board w/ this strategy for better or worse IMO.
 
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10 million abortions in 3 months?

January 2, 2020 – More than 42 million abortions took place globally in 2019 according to the tracking service Worldometers, once again finding abortion to be the single largest cause of death across the planet for the year.
 

Nirvana Shill
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Some here can articulate very well why we need to continue this shutdown..

Myself , make it pretty simple for you. We can't keep the economy shutdown much longer. The economic carnage from this so outweighs this Chinese virus..

Doubt anyone here posting was around during the depression . but we've all heard how bad that was Millions and millions of people won't be affected by this thing. Need to get that population back to work
 

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Welcome to the life of a career bureaucrat, where being wrong gets you a promotion.

Run a useless model projecting a "worst case scenario" and release those numbers scaring the shit out of the public. Then when these spectacularly wrong predictions don't come to pass, tell us how their brilliance saved our lives.

From 1.2m-1.7m...now 100-200k

When this thing started, one of the employees at my workplace was spouting off on a group text, and she would precede every comment with "as a nurse" as though that gave her some special credibility. Then she would go on to do everything she could to fear monger the rest of my peers and kept linking us to a facebook post by an Epidemiologist [FONT=Roboto, arial, sans-serif]she claimed to know, that was predicting some 14m+ deaths based on his exponential BS.

[/FONT]I sent a thoughtful, bulletpointed response questioning our workplace's claim to reopen by 4/6, explaining how many things we do on an everyday basis that have much more risk than this disease (yet we keep doing it), how inaccurate all estimates had been on all the previous viruses (in particular, Ebola, which went from 1.2 million to ending up with less than 11k), how no one was going to just give them money while they were unemployed (this dumbass nurse was pleading with people not to continue to work on the side claiming there were people that would help them financially...biggest load of horse manure I ever heard), and how hypocritical our workplace had been by not making any big deal of us working inches away from people just the day before and then after they closed telling us we had to incorporate the 6 foot rule (this had already been out there for 3 weeks previous). They also threatened to fire us if we attempted to work outside of our location, realizing that contractors can't even file for unemployment.

Ironically, everything I claimed in my text has come to fruition.

-We will be closed considerably longer than their claim
-None of their debt has been relieved and even though there is a 60 day non-eviction rule, they are not relieved of paying their rent
-The estimate has gone from a range of 1.2-1.6 million down to 200k (bravo, but the original claim was clearly bullshit)
-We still continue to do things (and die from them) that are much riskier (note Zit's post #48). I actually cited in my example driving (3000+ deaths per day), and food borne illnesses (5000+ deaths per year). Clearly Zit's post was even more extensive but it didn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out (I'm actually surprised it took that long to come up with this list)

When I pointed all these things out and asked "the nurse" if she had any comments, she went right back to her stupid link. I told her this was no way to have a rational conversation, and then she privately texted me a political rant about not comparing her to the impeached one and a bunch of other insane stuff that had absolutely nothing to do with anything I said. I told her I didn't have time for her insane partisan bickering and to keep her politics out of this. We haven't spoken since (can't say I'm losing any sleep over it). An absolute fucking lunatic. Unfortunately, it reminded me way too much of some of the posters on this forum who do everything they can to start an argument but don't address a thing that people say to them (rather they ignore them especially when they can't refute them). I'm not sure why people waste so much time with a group of posters that are close minded and intellectually rigid, but I think for some, it's like a sport to them (and clearly with as much time as people have now, it's a past time).
 

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