Should I hedge..or just let it ride?

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> san antonio up 2-0 ..hedge with new jersey. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


IF SA wins the first two games...the probability for them winning the Championship is historically ~98%...thus, I would NOT recommend hedging IF such occurs.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> the biggest mistake a lot of gamblers make is weaken their position by turning a good number stale. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Disagree...

The most common mistake by a gambler is NOT removing/minimizing risk...until the Championship is decided one cannot determine which "number" is good, since the ONLY good one, is the one which cashes.
 

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8 - I would suggest keeping your own records so you can see what we are talking about. When you take a hedge like this see how much it costs you over time. When you see guys like Doc, Strut and others tell you something like this it is worth thinking about. This is a rather simplistic view and not mathematically porportional but maybe it will make sense.

Say you go the horse track and in a race with 26 horses you lay $50 on a horse you really like at 13-1. Before the race goes off it is now down to your horse and one other horse. Now you are still getting 13-1 money in a two horse field plus you have the best horse anyway. Your horse is favored to win!!! Do you stay pat on that $50 ticket or do you bet some on the other side to ensure a profit? Smart gamblers are going to keep every cent they have on your bet, don't get off any. As noted above unless it is a bankroll type decision where you have too much exposure you always look for these kinds of situations! As gamblers we survive on getting the best of a number! When you get it you do not give it away!!

Anyway you asked so this is my thought. We all think diffently as we all want different things out of our bets, some play for enjoyment. In the log run though if you want to win you maximize when you have the best of it, not minimize. My old man told me once, I don't care how big your bankroll is if you are making bets on stuff where there is negative expectation you will go broke eventually. The only relative factors in this is how big your bets are, how often you bet and big your bankroll was to begin with. For instance even if you are only playing poker and taking the worst of it against better players you will go busted eventually if you live long enough. Try and take value when you get it. As gamblers we get too cute sometime for our own good, including me. You look for situations where you have the best of it, don't pass on it. If you give it away when you have value you are making a mistake. Either way good luck with it and nice position to be in.....
 

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I would hedge depending on how much you have on it. Real life example I Be 100-1 on the ducks to win the cup for $50 to win $5000, if I hadn't hedged that bet before this series started I would have felt as though I lost $2000(approx amount I locked in hedging) not just $50.00. Other thing you could do is bet NJ the first game, If nj loses don't bet again until they are tied again and you might win both bets if you take the points in the first game without the ML.GL
 

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From now on you can just call me "Trotter"...aka Richard Dreyfuss
suomi.gif


You guys are awesome man..lots of good points, and information in here.

LET'S GO SPURS!!!!
 

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I was going to start a thread to see if you ended up hedging or not. Hope you ended up keeping all the value you had.....

Good job.
 

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