Spive..lookin good my man! You are going to enjoy this series no matter what arent ya? Just from a fan's prospective who would you like to see win?
Judge...I hear what you are saying and I respect your advice a ton..but there is that part of me that is saying, "hey you called it in the beginning now dont puss out!!"
Judge...I hear what you are saying and I respect your advice a ton..but there is that part of me that is saying, "hey you called it in the beginning now dont puss out!!"
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Spive..lookin good my man! You are going to enjoy this series no matter what arent ya? Just from a fan's prospective who would you like to see win? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Only a "fan" of "profit"...easy answer, San Antonio +600, pays MORE than +470.
Only a "fan" of "profit"...easy answer, San Antonio +600, pays MORE than +470.
Certainly agree with Judge...in that you hedge your position to at least remove your risk.
But as previously stated, I believe you will find a better price, than currently being offered on NJ at some point during the series...thus, recommending waiting at the moment.
It's your money, its your decision...just be smart in whatever you decide to do.
But as previously stated, I believe you will find a better price, than currently being offered on NJ at some point during the series...thus, recommending waiting at the moment.
It's your money, its your decision...just be smart in whatever you decide to do.
8 - Stay pat with that unless you have huge numbers involved and it is significant to your bankroll. You are getting much the best of it right now, don't give any of that away.
One of the most overused moves we all do as gamblers is be too quick to hedge. It's a real BR drainer.....
One of the most overused moves we all do as gamblers is be too quick to hedge. It's a real BR drainer.....
BTW yes I have done it before myself but VERY rarely. Every time I mention this someone reminds me of last year's Barbary Coast contest where I had the first 14 games in a row right and needed the Monday night game for a possible pay out of $40,000.
Ended up two of us hit it so the pay-out only ended up being 20k each, before my 7k hedge. LOL. Actually I would do the same thing all over again. Worked out for me I had a nice hedge + a nice middle shot. I could have won both sides plus gave me the hedge, since a card only cost $20 at the first of the year it was hard not to hedge in that situation. However just hedging out on nice value bets like this or locking up a profit on a 3 team parlay or something like that is the wrong move IMO.
Ended up two of us hit it so the pay-out only ended up being 20k each, before my 7k hedge. LOL. Actually I would do the same thing all over again. Worked out for me I had a nice hedge + a nice middle shot. I could have won both sides plus gave me the hedge, since a card only cost $20 at the first of the year it was hard not to hedge in that situation. However just hedging out on nice value bets like this or locking up a profit on a 3 team parlay or something like that is the wrong move IMO.
Now I am realy leaning twoards sticking with it...Spive..waiting til later games for nets at a better price would mean that they would be down agame or two which would make my Spurs play look even better correct? I got a few days to think about it still so we will see what happens...The only reason why I was thinking abot it in the first place is that i think the Nets have a healthy shot. Experienced Finals team with a very solid squad..Spurs have shown signs of shakiness in a couple of series IMO. I respect all of your opinions very much and I thank you again for your responses.
8
8
Something to consider in the future, regarding futures...
You had SA in the west...who lost the first game and then won the next 3...possessing a very high probability of reaching the finals.
In the meantime, NJ won the first two games ON THE ROAD...the probability of NJ reaching the finals after winning the first two games of a 7-game series in the semi-finals on the road historically is very close, if not 100%!
That is WHEN you wanted to make the hedge purchase (as I did/IMO) on NJ +470 to win the Championship.
"VALUE/PROFIT" has now been realized in doing such (regardless if SA won) as indicated by CURRENT series odds:
NJ +277
SA -307
...If Dallas would have reached the finals, I suspect the odds would have even been better than the current SA odds, to profit with a DAL hedge on NJ.
Hoping you understand.
You had SA in the west...who lost the first game and then won the next 3...possessing a very high probability of reaching the finals.
In the meantime, NJ won the first two games ON THE ROAD...the probability of NJ reaching the finals after winning the first two games of a 7-game series in the semi-finals on the road historically is very close, if not 100%!
That is WHEN you wanted to make the hedge purchase (as I did/IMO) on NJ +470 to win the Championship.
"VALUE/PROFIT" has now been realized in doing such (regardless if SA won) as indicated by CURRENT series odds:
NJ +277
SA -307
...If Dallas would have reached the finals, I suspect the odds would have even been better than the current SA odds, to profit with a DAL hedge on NJ.
Hoping you understand.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by docdekay:
thanks pat. the biggest mistake a lot of gamblers make is weaken their position by turning a good number stale.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Thanks Doc, you are absolutely right as well....
thanks pat. the biggest mistake a lot of gamblers make is weaken their position by turning a good number stale.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Thanks Doc, you are absolutely right as well....
