Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Wednesday
Wednesday November 12, 2008
8:00 PM EST - ESPN2
4 STAR SELECTION
Central Michigan +3½ over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The Chippewas are back on the road to try to tame the Huskies in another Wednesday night Mid-American Conference football game. Central Michigan is off a big non-conference victory, as they stormed back to score nine straight points in the final quarter to upset Big Ten Indiana 37-34 on the road last weekend.
Meanwhile, Northern Illinois was crushed 45-14 by Ball State in a non-Saturday game last week.
Here we have a very rare situation with a Central Michigan team on a 5-game winning streak being a road underdog to a Northern Illinois team off a blowout loss. The Chippewas should continue their solid play, as they are now 10-0 ATS (+14.5 ppg) off scoring 35+ points and not a road favorite of 3+ points or underdog of 17+ points.
While some may expect a letdown by Central Michigan off beating the Hoosiers, MAC teams are 6-0 ATS (+19.6 ppg) off a SU win against a Big 10 opponent in a game they weren’t an underdog of 13+ points since 1999.
We also find the Chips active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
Play ON a conference road underdog off 5 SU wins and not an ATS win of 20+ points in its last game vs. an opponent off a SU loss not seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite of more than 13 points.
Such teams have been perfect since at least 1980, going 16-0 ATS since then, beating the spread by more than 11 points per game.
While Northern Illinois has enjoyed a great season and is headed for a bowl games, they also have their weak spots, as they are 0-7 ATS (-12.6 ppg) as a favorite off a SU loss.
The Chippewas are a veteran team used to big games, including MAC Championship Games and Bowl Games. That experience will serve them well hers, as they outlast the Huskies in a tough, hard-fought contest.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 NORHTERN ILLINOIS 27
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