SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) at (1) Cleveland (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who coasted through the first two rounds of the playoffs as the top overall seed, return to action for the first time in more than a week when they open the Eastern Conference finals at Quicken Loans Arena against the Magic.
Cleveland has had an eight-day break since sweeping Atlanta out of the playoffs with an 84-74 road win, earning its second straight 4-0 series victory. However, the Cavs barely came up short as a 10½-point road favorite, failing to cash for the first time in the postseason. Newly crowned MVP LeBron James had 27 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in the series-clincher in Atlanta, Delonte West chipped in 21 points and six assists, while center Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The Cavs have ridden their defense in the playoffs, allowing a league-best 78.1 ppg while scoring 94.9 ppg, with the 16.8 margin of victory also leading all playoff participants. Offensively, James is averaging a playoff-best 32.9 ppg, with Mo Williams ranking as Cleveland’s second-leading scorer at 14.8 ppg. James is also notching 6.8 assists (sixth) and 9.8 rebounds (10th) per contest.
Orlando survived a seven-game battle with Boston, staving off elimination with victories in Games 6 and 7, culminating with Sunday’s 101-82 rout as a 2½-point road underdog, giving the SU winner a 7-0 ATS mark in the second-round series. Dwight Howard had yet another double-double, with 12 points and 16 boards to go with five blocks, but Hedo Turkoglu was the difference maker with 25 points – hitting 4 of 5 from three-point range – along with a dozen assists.
Orlando hit 51.4 percent overall from the floor in Game 7 and an eye-popping 61.9 percent from long distance (13 of 21), while holding Boston to 39.2 percent shooting overall and 25 percent from three-point range (4 of 16).
Howard has been the catalyst for Orlando throughout the playoffs, averaging a team-leading 20.3 points and playoff-leading 16.6 rebounds, and Rashard Lewis is putting up 19.9 ppg.
The Magic are on a 10-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in each of their last five games in Cleveland. This year, Orlando went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Cavaliers, capped by a 116-87 home blitzing as a 3½-point chalk on April 3. Cleveland won its lone home game against Orlando 97-93 on March 17, but the Magic covered as a 6½-point ‘dog. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
Cleveland is 43-2 SU (32-13 ATS) at home this year, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs (all double-digit wins). Orlando is 31-17 SU (29-18-1 ATS) on the road (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS in the postseason).
The Cavaliers are on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-1 overall, 37-14 at home, 6-0 in the Eastern Conference finals, 8-1 going on three or more days’ rest and 18-5 as a playoff chalk.
The Magic are on ATS upticks of 5-1 against the Central Division and 15-6 as a road pup, and they won and covered in two of their four games at Boston in the conference semifinals. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 overall and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on the highway.
The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 6-1 overall (all from the favorite’s role), 16-5-1 as a home chalk and 20-8 following a break of three days or more. Likewise, Orlando carries “under” streaks of 22-8 overall, 7-2 with the Magic catching points on the road and 7-3 when the Magic are a playoff ‘dog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings overall and four of the last five clashes at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (21-16) at St. Louis (22-17)
Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00) is set to return to a big-league mound for the first time in more than a month when he pitches against Ryan Dempster (3-2, 4.65) and the Cubs in the middle game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis snapped a three-game slide with Tuesday’s 3-0 victory over Chicago. Despite yesterday’s triumph, the Cardinals remain on slides of 5-10 overall, 3-6 at home, 3-8 against right-handed starters, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-5 versus N.L. Central rivals. The only positives for Tony LaRussa’s squad: It is 4-1 in its last five Wednesday outings and 19-7 in its last 26 as a home chalk.
Even though they came up short on Tuesday, the Cubs are still 11-5 in their last 16 games, yet they’ve split six games on the highway during this stretch. They’re also 5-2 in their last seven against right-handed starters, but they’ve lost seven of their last eight as an underdog.
This is the third series of the year between these hated rivals, with St. Louis now holding a slim 4-3 lead.
Carpenter was pulled from his most recent start on April 14 at Arizona after three scoreless innings because of a pulled ribcage muscle that landed the oft-injured right-hander on the disabled list. He’s allowed just one unearned run and five hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in 10 innings of work, including a 2-1 home victory over the Pirates in his 2009 debut on April 9.
Although Carpenter hasn’t pitched much in the last 18 months because of injuries, the Cardinals still sport several positive streaks with the former Cy Young winner on the mound, including 75-29 overall, 40-13 at home, 52-21 as a favorite and 36-15 against division foes. In 14 career starts against Chicago, Carpenter is 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA, and St. Louis is 4-1 in his last five home outings versus the Cubs.
Dempster is coming off Thursday’s 11-3 home victory over the Padres, as he yielded just two runs and three hits in seven innings. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled on the road this year, going 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings. In fact, Chicago has lost six of Dempster’s last seven road starts and seven of his last eight when he’s an underdog.
Dempster has faced the Cardinals twice already this season, getting a no-decision in both games as he gave up a total of seven runs in 12 innings (5.25 ERA), with the Cubs winning 7-5 at home and losing 4-3 on the road. Dempster is 6-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 15 saves in 39 lifetime appearances (13 starts) against St. Louis.
The over is 5-2 in Dempster’s last seven starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on Wednesday, 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five overall and 5-1 in Carpenter’s last six Wednesday affairs. However, with Carpenter pitching, the under is on streaks of 35-17-1 at home and 4-1 when facing Chicago in St. Louis.
The over is 4-1-1 in the season series so far, but the under is still 5-1-1 in the last seven battles at Busch Stadium. For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 on the road, 5-2 against right-handed starters and 11-5-1 as a road underdog. ... Conversely, the Cardinals carry “under” trends of 4-2 overall (all against the N.L. Central) and 7-2-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (27-15) at Boston (22-17)
Blue Jays rookie Brett Cecil (2-0, 1.80) goes for his third straight victory when the southpaw makes his first ever appearance on the Fenway Park mound, while the Red Sox will counter with Brad Penny (3-1, 6.69).
Boston eked out a 2-1 victory over Toronto last night in the first of several meetings between these A.L. East foes. The Jays had a four-game winning streak snapped with that result, yet they’ve still surrendered three runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games, including the last six in a row. Cito Gaston’s crew is on solid surges of 12-6 overall, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 16-6 in the second game of a series. However, the Rays are just 5-7 in their last 12 road games and 1-5 in their last six as an underdog.
Boston has dropped four of five … The Red Sox offense has been pedestrian of late, producing four runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, and they’ve gone nine straight contests without tallying more than five runs. Still, Boston carries positive trends of 78-33 at home, 17-7 as a favorite, 8-2 against southpaw starters, 38-18 at home against lefties and 5-1 in divisional contests.
Boston is 5-1 in the last six clashes with Toronto.
Cecil, who was called up at the beginning of this month, has surrendered a total of five runs (four earned) in his first three big-league starts, walking four and whiffing 15 in 20 innings. He did give up a season-high three runs – including his first two home runs – in six innings in his most recent start against the White Sox on Friday, but still earned a 6-3 home win. In the left-hander’s lone road start, he scattered five hits and two walks over eight scoreless innings en route to a 5-0 victory at Oakland on May 10.
Penny has been idle since Thursday when he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings at the Angels, getting a no-decision as Boston eventually lost 5-4 in 12 innings, dropping to 1-3 in Penny’s last four starts. The veteran right-hander, in his first season with the Red Sox, is 2-0 in three starts at Fenway Park despite a bloated 7.63 ERA, with Boston winning all three games.
Penny pitched against Toronto twice in interleague play with the Dodgers back in 2007, allowing one earned run in each start while totaling 14 2/3 innings (1.23 ERA). He’s faced the Jays four times, but in the last three he’s 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA.
Toronto is on “over” stretches of 10-5 as an underdog, 14-7 on the road and 5-0 on Wednesday. Boston is 6-1-1 “under” in its last eight overall, but otherwise the Sox are riding “over” streaks of 7-4-1 at home, 17-7-2 as a chalk, 11-4 versus southpaw starters, 17-5 on Wednesday and 2-0-1 with Penny pitching at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) at (1) Cleveland (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who coasted through the first two rounds of the playoffs as the top overall seed, return to action for the first time in more than a week when they open the Eastern Conference finals at Quicken Loans Arena against the Magic.
Cleveland has had an eight-day break since sweeping Atlanta out of the playoffs with an 84-74 road win, earning its second straight 4-0 series victory. However, the Cavs barely came up short as a 10½-point road favorite, failing to cash for the first time in the postseason. Newly crowned MVP LeBron James had 27 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in the series-clincher in Atlanta, Delonte West chipped in 21 points and six assists, while center Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The Cavs have ridden their defense in the playoffs, allowing a league-best 78.1 ppg while scoring 94.9 ppg, with the 16.8 margin of victory also leading all playoff participants. Offensively, James is averaging a playoff-best 32.9 ppg, with Mo Williams ranking as Cleveland’s second-leading scorer at 14.8 ppg. James is also notching 6.8 assists (sixth) and 9.8 rebounds (10th) per contest.
Orlando survived a seven-game battle with Boston, staving off elimination with victories in Games 6 and 7, culminating with Sunday’s 101-82 rout as a 2½-point road underdog, giving the SU winner a 7-0 ATS mark in the second-round series. Dwight Howard had yet another double-double, with 12 points and 16 boards to go with five blocks, but Hedo Turkoglu was the difference maker with 25 points – hitting 4 of 5 from three-point range – along with a dozen assists.
Orlando hit 51.4 percent overall from the floor in Game 7 and an eye-popping 61.9 percent from long distance (13 of 21), while holding Boston to 39.2 percent shooting overall and 25 percent from three-point range (4 of 16).
Howard has been the catalyst for Orlando throughout the playoffs, averaging a team-leading 20.3 points and playoff-leading 16.6 rebounds, and Rashard Lewis is putting up 19.9 ppg.
The Magic are on a 10-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in each of their last five games in Cleveland. This year, Orlando went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Cavaliers, capped by a 116-87 home blitzing as a 3½-point chalk on April 3. Cleveland won its lone home game against Orlando 97-93 on March 17, but the Magic covered as a 6½-point ‘dog. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
Cleveland is 43-2 SU (32-13 ATS) at home this year, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs (all double-digit wins). Orlando is 31-17 SU (29-18-1 ATS) on the road (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS in the postseason).
The Cavaliers are on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-1 overall, 37-14 at home, 6-0 in the Eastern Conference finals, 8-1 going on three or more days’ rest and 18-5 as a playoff chalk.
The Magic are on ATS upticks of 5-1 against the Central Division and 15-6 as a road pup, and they won and covered in two of their four games at Boston in the conference semifinals. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 overall and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on the highway.
The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 6-1 overall (all from the favorite’s role), 16-5-1 as a home chalk and 20-8 following a break of three days or more. Likewise, Orlando carries “under” streaks of 22-8 overall, 7-2 with the Magic catching points on the road and 7-3 when the Magic are a playoff ‘dog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings overall and four of the last five clashes at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (21-16) at St. Louis (22-17)
Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00) is set to return to a big-league mound for the first time in more than a month when he pitches against Ryan Dempster (3-2, 4.65) and the Cubs in the middle game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis snapped a three-game slide with Tuesday’s 3-0 victory over Chicago. Despite yesterday’s triumph, the Cardinals remain on slides of 5-10 overall, 3-6 at home, 3-8 against right-handed starters, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-5 versus N.L. Central rivals. The only positives for Tony LaRussa’s squad: It is 4-1 in its last five Wednesday outings and 19-7 in its last 26 as a home chalk.
Even though they came up short on Tuesday, the Cubs are still 11-5 in their last 16 games, yet they’ve split six games on the highway during this stretch. They’re also 5-2 in their last seven against right-handed starters, but they’ve lost seven of their last eight as an underdog.
This is the third series of the year between these hated rivals, with St. Louis now holding a slim 4-3 lead.
Carpenter was pulled from his most recent start on April 14 at Arizona after three scoreless innings because of a pulled ribcage muscle that landed the oft-injured right-hander on the disabled list. He’s allowed just one unearned run and five hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in 10 innings of work, including a 2-1 home victory over the Pirates in his 2009 debut on April 9.
Although Carpenter hasn’t pitched much in the last 18 months because of injuries, the Cardinals still sport several positive streaks with the former Cy Young winner on the mound, including 75-29 overall, 40-13 at home, 52-21 as a favorite and 36-15 against division foes. In 14 career starts against Chicago, Carpenter is 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA, and St. Louis is 4-1 in his last five home outings versus the Cubs.
Dempster is coming off Thursday’s 11-3 home victory over the Padres, as he yielded just two runs and three hits in seven innings. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled on the road this year, going 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings. In fact, Chicago has lost six of Dempster’s last seven road starts and seven of his last eight when he’s an underdog.
Dempster has faced the Cardinals twice already this season, getting a no-decision in both games as he gave up a total of seven runs in 12 innings (5.25 ERA), with the Cubs winning 7-5 at home and losing 4-3 on the road. Dempster is 6-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 15 saves in 39 lifetime appearances (13 starts) against St. Louis.
The over is 5-2 in Dempster’s last seven starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on Wednesday, 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five overall and 5-1 in Carpenter’s last six Wednesday affairs. However, with Carpenter pitching, the under is on streaks of 35-17-1 at home and 4-1 when facing Chicago in St. Louis.
The over is 4-1-1 in the season series so far, but the under is still 5-1-1 in the last seven battles at Busch Stadium. For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 on the road, 5-2 against right-handed starters and 11-5-1 as a road underdog. ... Conversely, the Cardinals carry “under” trends of 4-2 overall (all against the N.L. Central) and 7-2-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (27-15) at Boston (22-17)
Blue Jays rookie Brett Cecil (2-0, 1.80) goes for his third straight victory when the southpaw makes his first ever appearance on the Fenway Park mound, while the Red Sox will counter with Brad Penny (3-1, 6.69).
Boston eked out a 2-1 victory over Toronto last night in the first of several meetings between these A.L. East foes. The Jays had a four-game winning streak snapped with that result, yet they’ve still surrendered three runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games, including the last six in a row. Cito Gaston’s crew is on solid surges of 12-6 overall, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 16-6 in the second game of a series. However, the Rays are just 5-7 in their last 12 road games and 1-5 in their last six as an underdog.
Boston has dropped four of five … The Red Sox offense has been pedestrian of late, producing four runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, and they’ve gone nine straight contests without tallying more than five runs. Still, Boston carries positive trends of 78-33 at home, 17-7 as a favorite, 8-2 against southpaw starters, 38-18 at home against lefties and 5-1 in divisional contests.
Boston is 5-1 in the last six clashes with Toronto.
Cecil, who was called up at the beginning of this month, has surrendered a total of five runs (four earned) in his first three big-league starts, walking four and whiffing 15 in 20 innings. He did give up a season-high three runs – including his first two home runs – in six innings in his most recent start against the White Sox on Friday, but still earned a 6-3 home win. In the left-hander’s lone road start, he scattered five hits and two walks over eight scoreless innings en route to a 5-0 victory at Oakland on May 10.
Penny has been idle since Thursday when he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings at the Angels, getting a no-decision as Boston eventually lost 5-4 in 12 innings, dropping to 1-3 in Penny’s last four starts. The veteran right-hander, in his first season with the Red Sox, is 2-0 in three starts at Fenway Park despite a bloated 7.63 ERA, with Boston winning all three games.
Penny pitched against Toronto twice in interleague play with the Dodgers back in 2007, allowing one earned run in each start while totaling 14 2/3 innings (1.23 ERA). He’s faced the Jays four times, but in the last three he’s 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA.
Toronto is on “over” stretches of 10-5 as an underdog, 14-7 on the road and 5-0 on Wednesday. Boston is 6-1-1 “under” in its last eight overall, but otherwise the Sox are riding “over” streaks of 7-4-1 at home, 17-7-2 as a chalk, 11-4 versus southpaw starters, 17-5 on Wednesday and 2-0-1 with Penny pitching at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take Kansas City (-115) over Cleveland
1.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-140) over Seattle
1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-170) over Oakland
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-105) over Houston
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-150) over Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (-130) over Pittsburgh
Today's Totals
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Cleveland at Kansas City
Note: This is my Total of the Week.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Philadelphia at Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Pittsburgh at Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 L.A. Angels at Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Toronto at Boston
1-Unit Play. Take Kansas City (-115) over Cleveland
1.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-140) over Seattle
1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-170) over Oakland
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-105) over Houston
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-150) over Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (-130) over Pittsburgh
Today's Totals
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Cleveland at Kansas City
Note: This is my Total of the Week.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Philadelphia at Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Pittsburgh at Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 L.A. Angels at Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Toronto at Boston
