THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Dallas (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) at (2) Denver (7-2 SU, 9-0 ATS)
The Mavericks, after barely keeping their season alive with a last-minute, come-from-behind victory in Game 4, once again try to stave off elimination when they head back to the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 battle against the Nuggets.
Dirk Nowitzki poured in 44 points Monday, rallying Dallas from several double-digit deficits to claim a 119-117 victory as a 2½-point home chalk, cutting Denver’s series lead to 3-1. Nowitzki, who also had 13 rebounds, led six Mavs in double figures, with Josh Howard (21 points, 13 rebounds) and Jason Kidd (13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) contributing double-doubles. Dallas also killed Denver on the boards (50-34).
The Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony racked up 41 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, and Chauncey Billups had 24 points and seven assists. Denver hit a respectable 32 of 44 free throws (72.7 percent), but Dallas had one less attempt and made 36 from the charity stripe (83.7 percent). The Game 3 setback ended the Nuggets’ five-game winning streak, but they’re still 21-5 SU (17-9 ATS) in their last 26 games.
Dallas’ victory Monday was its first in eight attempts against Denver this season, but by barely getting the spread-cover Monday, the Nuggets are now on an 11-1 ATS roll (10-2 SU) in this rivalry (7-1 ATS this season). Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at the Pepsi Center, including a 14-point victory in Game 1 and a 12-point triumph in Game 2. However, the road team has still covered in five of the last seven head-to-head battles and the ‘dog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11.
Overall this season, Denver is 38-8 SU (28-17-1 ATS) at home, including an ongoing 15-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center (10-5 ATS). Dallas is 20-26 SU (23-23 ATS) on the road, including 2-3 SU and ATS in the postseason.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-5 overall, 16-4 against the Western Conference, 10-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-0 at home.
The Mavericks are on a 13-5 ATS run as a playoff pup, but their pointspread streaks turn negative from there, including 0-4 in this series, 2-5 on the highway and 8-20 against the Northwest Division.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 8-2 in second-round playoff games and 4-1 when catching points. Likewise, the over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 home contests, with the Nuggets favored in all 13. Finally, following a 4-0 “under” run in this rivalry, the last three games in this series have eclipsed the posted price, with Monday’s game soaring over the 210-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (22-12) at Philadelphia (16-14)
The Phillies will turn to struggling veteran Jamie Moyer (3-2, 7.26), who has just one quality start all season, in the middle game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia took Tuesday’s opener 5-3, winning for just the second time in its last six games and improving to just 3-4 in its last seven at home.
Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.59 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than a month when he takes the mound for the suddenly slumping Dodgers. Since Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating baseball’s substance-abuse policy, the Dodgers have lost four of five, which comes on the heels of a seven-game winning streak.
Philadelphia has won 12 of its last 14 games against left-handed starters is also 13-4 in its last 17 contests against the N.L. West, including knocking off Los Angeles in five games in last year’s National League Championship Series. Charlie Manuel’s club is now on a 9-1 run against the Dodgers and is 23-8 in the last 31 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, including playoffs, the home team is 12-2 in the last 14 Dodgers-Phillies battles.
Los Angeles is still on hot streaks of 20-9 overall, 16-8 after a loss, 7-2 against southpaw starters and 18-4 in the second game of a series. However, including their struggles against Philadelphia, they’ve lost 13 of their last 15 games against N.L. East foes, and they’re just 2-5 in Wolf’s last seven road starts.
Wolf has given up just two earned runs over his last three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings (1.04 ERA), but has nothing to show for it but three no-decisions. In fact, he hasn’t factored in a decision in five consecutive starts, with the Dodgers losing three of his last four, including an 11-9 home loss to the Nationals on Thursday. The veteran lefty has not given up more than four runs in any game this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in four road starts.
Wolf’s only career start against the Phillies – his former team – came last May when he was with the Padres. He allowed two runs in six innings, getting a no-decision as San Diego lost 3-2 in Philadelphia.
Moyer got bombed in his last two starts, both against the Mets, yielding 12 runs on 14 hits (five home runs) over eight total innings, with Philadelphia winning 6-5 at home and losing 7-5 on the road. The Phillies are still 4-1 in Moyer’s last five starts overall and 6-1 in his last seven at home, where the 46-year-old lefty is 1-1 despite a 7.02 ERA in three outings this season.
Moyer is 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA in 10 regular-season starts against the Dodgers, but that doesn’t include a 7-2 loss in last year’s NLCS when he got ripped for six runs in 1 1/3 innings in L.A. In his only other start against the Dodgers since he joined the Phillies, Moyer gave up 10 runs (all earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 road loss in 2007.
The Dodgers are on a bunch of “over” streaks, including 5-1-1 as an underdog, 5-2 against the N.L. East, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-0 when Wolf faces the N.L. East. Also, the over is 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven games against N.L. West foes and 5-0 in Moyer’s last five trips to the mound. Conversely, with last night’s game staying low, the under is now 11-3 in the last 14 Dodgers-Phillies clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (21-12) at L.A. Angels (16-15)
Off to a tremendous start to his season, Tim Wakefield (4-1, 2.92) takes the ball for the Red Sox as they continue a three-game set at Angel Stadium. Boston rallied from a 3-1 deficit on Tuesday and earned a 4-3 victory, improving to 4-1 in its last five and 6-2 in its last eight, including three straight road wins.
Rookie Matt Palmer (3-0, 3.06) goes for his fourth straight win in as many trips to the mound and the Angels, whose four-game winning streak (all at home) came to halt with Tuesday’s defeat. Although the bullpen blew last night’s game, Los Angeles has still held its last five opponents to a total of nine runs.
The Red Sox are on positive runs of 19-6 overall, 18-4 on grass, 11-1 against winning teams, 14-6 against the A.L. West and 5-0 with Wakefield pitching. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog, but 1-5 in its last six on Wednesday.
These teams have now split four meetings this season. However, going back to 2008, Los Angeles is still on a 10-2 run against the Red Sox in the regular season, but Boston eliminated the Angels 3-1 in a best-of-5 opening-round playoff series last October.
Wakefield made his 2009 debut at Angel Stadium on April 10, giving up three runs on six hits over six innings, losing 6-3. Since then, though, the veteran knuckleballer is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA in five starts, including a 13-3 home victory over Cleveland on Thursday in which he gave up two runs on four hits in six innings. Including last month’s loss to the Angels, Wakefield is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four road efforts.
Wakefield is now 9-13 with a 4.79 ERA in 29 career games (24 starts) against the Angels, including 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA in Los Angeles. The Red Sox are 2-7 in Wakefield’s last nine starts against the Halos and 0-5 in his last five at Angel Stadium.
Palmer gave up one run on two hits and three walks over 5 1/3 innings in Friday’s home start against the Royals, picking up a 4-1 victory. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA in two home games, and tonight marks his first career appearance against Boston.
With Wakefield on the hill, the “over” is on streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 on the road, 23-9-1 when he’s favored, 5-2-1 when facing the Angeles and 7-3-1 when pitching in Anaheim.
The high-scoring Red Sox carry “over” trends of 19-8-2 overall, 10-4-1 on the road, 12-6-2 against right-handed starters, 5-1 versus the A.L. West and 16-5 on Wednesday. Also, Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 4-2 against the A.L. East and 4-1 on Wednesday, but the Halos have stayed low in five straight games (all at home). Finally, the over is 7-4-1 in Boston’s last 12 games at Angel Stadium (2-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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