STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 26th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 8/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #22
•Masterson Struggles Again As Sinker Misbehaves: After winning a nearly five-hour struggle the night before, the Cardinals had little Sunday for well-traveled Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Jerome Willliams. Their own starter, Justin Masterson, had little or nothing for the Phillies either, and the result was a 7-1 loss that cost the Cardinals a chance to clinch a series against second-division opposition. One of the few positives was a stout relief outing by lefthanded rookie Nick Greenwood after Masterson had been peppered for five runs in three innings as he dropped to 2-2 with the Cardinals. The 2013 All-Star acquired from Cleveland has permitted four or more runs in four of his first five Cardinals starts after coming off the Indians’ disabled list, where he had landed with right knee inflammation. Masterson is slated for a start Saturday in one game of a doubleheader with the Chicago Cubs in St. Louis. But if that doesn’t go any better, the staff will have to reconsider his spot in the rotation in the September stretch.
It went downhill from the beginning for Masterson (6-8), who walked leadoff man Ben Revere to start the game. Revere was No. 2 in the National League batting race when the day began, but he hadn’t walked in 171 plate appearances since July 5. What followed over the next three innings was a smorgasbord of six hits, five of them singles, and two wild pitches. With his team down by five runs, manager Mike Matheny could go no longer with Masterson. “It was one of those days he didn’t have a good feel,” Matheny said. Both Matheny and Masterson contend he is close to regaining his Cleveland form and that of one starry night in Miami, when he pitched seven innings of scoreless ball, allowing three hits. “We want to see him get there as quick as possible,” said Matheny, But close rarely counts in baseball. “He’s not happy with what he’s seeing here,” Matheny said. “He came into a good situation, wanting to help us be better.”
•Pirates Send OF Polanco To Minors: The Pittsburgh Pirates sent outfielder Gregory Polanco to Triple-A Indianapolis on Monday. Polanco, 22, is widely considered one of the top prospects in Major League Baseball. Polanco, has a batting line of .241/.308/.349 with nine doubles, six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 64 games since being called up in June. He only has one hit in his last 30 at-bats. Travis Snider recently received more playing time at the expense of the struggling Polanco. Polanco had a batting line of .347/.405/.540 with 17 doubles, seven home runs and 15 stolen bases in 62 games with Indianapolis before his promotion. Before the season, he was ranked as the No. 10 overall prospect by Baseball America. The Pirates (67-63) are five games back in the National League Central and just 1 1/2 games behind the league's second wild-card spot. Polanco is expected to be brought back up when rosters expand Sept. 1. The Pirates recalled outfielder Jose Tabata from Triple-A and activated shortstop Clint Barmes off the 15-day disabled list. The team also designated infielder Jayson Nix for assignment.
•Stanton Not Only Choice For Red Sox This Offseason: Four years ago, midway through his final spring training as manager of the Atlanta Braves, Bobby Cox stood on the field before a game and joked that the only times he ever regretted his decision to retire were when he watched Jason Heyward take batting practice. Back then, Heyward was the consensus top prospect in baseball and, at age 20, the Braves’ Opening Day right fielder. He was baseball’s “Next Big Thing” before Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or Yasiel Puig was tagged with that label, carrying the burden of impossible expectations on his broad shoulders. And now, he should be the Red Sox’ next right fielder.
For all the fantasizing — and right now, that’s really all it is — about the Sox using their inventory of prospects and a few big leaguers to pull off a blockbuster for Giancarlo Stanton, there still isn’t any indication the Marlins are ready to trade their slugging MVP candidate and the most popular pro athlete in Miami since LeBron James took his basketball and went home to Cleveland. In time, the Marlins likely will be ready to talk. After all, Stanton is headed back to arbitration and could see his 2015 salary rise to $15 million. And forking over the $200 million or more that will be required to lock up the 24-year-old to a long-term deal would be out of character for owner Jeffrey Loria.
But Stanton also isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2016 season. With ace Jose Fernandez due to return next year from elbow surgery and an emerging group of young hitters, including outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, it makes more sense for the Marlins to take one shot at the division crown in a winnable National League East before unloading Stanton. The Braves probably won’t wait so long before moving Heyward, who can become a free agent after next season. And they already have tipped their hand that they don’t plan to keep him long term. In February, they locked up first baseman Freddie Freeman to an eight-year, $135 million extension one day after signing Heyward for only two years and $13.3 million.
Heyward hasn’t lived up to his lofty billing, batting .262 with a .784 OPS and averaging 17 homers and 57 RBI since debuting in 2010. Two years after going deep a career-high 27 times, he has only 10 homers and a .389 slugging percentage while seemingly being miscast as a leadoff hitter for most of the season. But Heyward can still be a middle-of-the-order force, assuming he’s able to fix the holes that exist in his unorthodox swing. He just turned 25 and hasn’t even entered his prime. Why shouldn’t those years come with the Red Sox? Heyward would be the left-handed bat the Sox need to balance out an offense that suddenly has a decidedly right-handed lean thanks to the additions of Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig and new Cuban center fielder Rusney Castillo.
He also sees his share of pitches and doesn’t tend to rack up high strikeout totals, keeping the line moving through the heart of the batting order. And Heyward plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, making him a safe bet to handle Fenway Park’s tricky right field as well as Shane Victorino did last season. Considering Heyward is a year closer to free agency than Stanton, the Braves’ expected return figures to be less. Contractually, it’s similar to when the Red Sox gave up slugging first base prospect Anthony Rizzo, top pitching prospect Casey Kelly and then-A-ball outfielder Reymond Fuentes for Adrian Gonzalez, who was one year from free agency when they acquired him and signed him to an extension.
If the Sox are able to execute a trade-and-sign of Heyward for a package of three or four players, including a top prospect or two, it presumably leaves them with enough assets in both the big leagues and the minors to still make a deal for one of the starting pitchers they will need to rearm the top of the rotation. Now imagine a Red Sox lineup that features David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Heyward, either Cespedes or Craig, and Xander Bogaerts batting behind table-setters Castillo and Dustin Pedroia. That’s an offense worth dreaming about. And it doesn’t even include Stanton.
•Injury Wave Crashes Over A's: Crushed 9-4 by the Angels on Sunday night, the Oakland A's fell one game behind Los Angeles in the American League West race. That wasn't even the worst news for the A's. Before the game, Oakland placed closer Sean Doolittle on the 15-day disabled list after an MRI exam revealed a strained right intercostal muscle. More bad news broke regarding John Jaso. The catcher, whose 2013 season ended July 25 because of a concussion, will go on the seven-day concussion disabled list Monday. He battled concussion symptoms since taking a hard foul ball off his mask Aug. 8 against Minnesota.
Third baseman Josh Donaldson hurt his left knee during his final at-bat Saturday night against the Angels, had an MRI exam Sunday and sat out the series finale. The MRI revealed no structural damage, and he is day-to-day. "It's just something you have to deal with," A's manager Bob Melvin said of the injuries. "Regardless, we feel like every time we take field no matter who we run out there, we feel like we're gonna win." With Doolittle, who has 20 saves, out for at least 15 days and possibly longer, A's manager Bob Melvin said he would pick a fill-in closer Monday. Right-handers Ryan Cook and Luke Gregerson are likely the top candidates.
"There are a number of guys who have experience in late-game situations," Doolittle said. "They are more than capable to figure out a way to get it done. One of the strong points of this organization is depth. It's another one of those scenarios that give guys a chance to step up. "I'm (mad), mainly because I can't be out there helping the team and going on the road with these guys." Doolittle was hurt throwing his second-to-last pitch Saturday night during his 20th save. After the game, he said he didn't believe the injury on his right side was serious, but the MRI showed enough damage to a small muscle between his ribs to land him on the DL.
Jaso said his concussion symptoms aren't nearly as bad as the ones he had last season, when he couldn't return to action. "I got hit pretty hard a while ago, and I've been kind of like muscling through the games and just kind of powering through," Jaso said. "But the symptoms kind of like escalated a little bit this past few days and got to the point where it was a little iffy if I could keep going back there behind the plate and catch. "I think we're going to give it a little bit of time to calm. It's one of those things where it takes a few days of being away from the work and being outside and straining my body and mind to let it calm down."
With Jaso headed for the DL and Stephen Vogt limited to emergency catching duty because of a lingering sore foot, the Oakland front office scrambled Sunday to fill the void. The A's landed veteran catcher Geovany Soto in a trade with the Texas Rangers for cash. Then in another deal, they acquired minor league catcher Bryan Anderson from the Cincinnati Reds for international-signing-bonus money. "He's been a starting catcher before, and he's a two-way guy," Melvin said of Soto, who will report Monday when the A's open a series at Houston. "He's not one you would say is a defensive specialist or just an offensive guy. He's able to do both. And based on the last couple years, going from an everyday role to non-everyday role, knows how to deal with that." Soto is a .248 career hitter with 92 home runs and 314 RBIs in 666 games, but he spent most of this season on the disabled list.
Around The League
--The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins completed a high-scoring series in style Sunday, with the Tigers (-138, Over/Under 9) romping to a 13-4 road victory and a split of the four-game set during Week #21. The teams went Over in all four confrontations, scoring a combined 73 runs in the series - an average of better than 18 per contest.
--Madison Bumgarner may find things a bit easier than normal (10:15 PM EST) Tuesday evening as he and the San Francisco Giants welcome the Colorado Rockies to town. Bumgarner has allowed 10 homers in 297 at-bats against members of the Rockies roster, but half have been hit by Carlos Gonzalez, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
--New York Yankees right-hander Brandon McCarthy looks to continue his hot play in the Bronx as he takes the hill (7:08 PM EST) Tuesday night against the host Detroit Tigers. McCarthy is 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA and is 3-5 Over/Under in his eight assignments since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks just prior to the trade deadline.
--New York Mets first baseman Lucas Duda is heating up heading into Tuesday night's series kickoff (7:10 PM EST) against the visiting Atlanta Braves. Duda hit a three-run homer, added a solo shot and drove in five runs for New York Sunday, and has racked up five homers and 11 RBIs over his past six games. The Mets has lost five of its previous six before accounting for its most runs and hits (14) since beating Philadelphia 11-2 with 15 hits July 30.
--Texas Rangers (1-5-3 Over/Under): The Rangers have one of the more interesting totals streaks going, with three pushes in a nine-game span - each a 6-3 Texas loss on a total of nine. Texas is 57-62-10 Over/Under for the season; the 10 pushes leads the American League.
--Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario (wrist) will take batting practice Monday and is expected to return to the starting lineup in the coming days. The Rockies are 12-14 straight-up, 13-10-3 Over/Under and -133 units for the season with Rosario out of the lineup.
--The Boston Red Sox have placed shortstop Xander Bogaerts on the seven-day concussion list after he was struck in the head in Friday night’s 5-3 setback versus the Seattle Mariners. Bogaerts was mired in a 1-for-23 slump prior to the injury, a stretch that dropped his average to .223 for the season.
--St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina and right-hander Michael Wacha are ready for the next step in their return from the disabled list. General manager John Mozeliak said Monday morning that Molina and Wacha will report to Double-A Springfield this week to continue their rehabilitation. Molina has been on the disabled list since July 10 with a torn ligament in his right thumb that required surgery. Wacha has been on the DL since mid-June with a stress reaction in his right shoulder. Wacha will throw live batting practice with Springfield on Wednesday.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Cardinals-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Lynn is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts.
--Cole is 3-1, 3.54 in his last five starts.
--Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.
--Pirates lost nine of their last twelve games.
--Over is 7-2 in last nine Cardinal games.
•Nationals-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Gonzalez is 0-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
--Hamels is 4-1, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
--Nationals won 12 of their last 14 games.
--Phillies are 12-6 in their last eighteen home games.
--Six of last nine Washington games went over the total.
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Wood is 2-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
--Gee is 0-5, 5.71 in his last seven starts.
--Atlanta won seven of last ten games, but lost last two.
--Mets lost five of their last seven games.
--Last five New York games went over total.
•Cubs-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Wood is 0-5, 6,71 in his last nine starts.
--Cueto is 5-1, 2.45 in his last six starts.
--Cubs won six of their last eight games.
--Cincinnati won last two games, after losing 10 of previous 11.
--Six of last eight Chicago games stayed under; over is 8-3-1 in Cincinnati's last dozen games.
•Dodgers-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Hernandez is 1-1, 3.71 in his last three starts for LA.
--Cahill is 2-0, 2.33 in his last four starts.
--Dodgers won three of their last four games.
--Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
--Seven of last ten Dodger games went over the total; four of last five Arizona games stayed under.
•Brewers-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Nelson is 0-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
--Ross is 5-5, 1.95 in his last eleven starts.
--Brewers won seven of their last ten games.
--San Diego lost six of its last eight games.
--Four of last five Milwaukee games went over total.
•Rockies-Giants - 10:15 PM
--De La Rosa is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
--Bumgarner is 2-1, 2.32 in his last four starts.
--Colorado won six of its last seven games.
--Giants lost last three games, are 10-24 in last 34 home games.
--Seven of last eleven Colorado games went over total.
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American League
•Red Sox-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--De La Rosa is 1-3, 5.35 in his last six starts.
--Dickey is 1-2, 5.11 in his last four starts.
--Red Sox lost eight of its last nine games.
--Toronto lost nine of its last twelve games.
--Four of last six Boston games went over total.
•Yankees-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--McCarthy is 5-2, 2.58 in his last seven starts.
--Porcello is 3-2, 2.47 in his last seven starts.
--Yankees won last five games, allowing 11 runs.
--Detroit won six of its last eight home games.
--Seven of last ten New York games stayed under total.
•Rays-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Cobb is 5-0, 1.16 in his last seven starts.
--Chen is 6-1, 2.96 in his last eight starts.
--Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
--Orioles lost last four games, scoring total of five runs.
--Seven of last ten Baltimore games stayed under.
•Twins-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Nolasco is 0-3, 9.20 in his last three starts.
--Duffy is 4-1, 3.44 in his last six starts, but has 5.68 RA in his last three.
--Minnesota lost six of its last nine games.
--Royals are 19-6 in last 25 games, but lost last two.
--Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over total.
•Athletics-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Hammel is 1-5, 7.31 in seven starts for Oakland.
--Keuchel is 0-2, 4.71 in his last three starts.
--Oakland won three of last four games, but lost seven of last nine road games.
--Astros lost four of their last five games.
--Five of last six Houston games stayed under total.
•Indians-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--House is 2-1, 1.83 in his last four starts.
--Quintana is 0-3, 5.89 in his last three starts.
--Cleveland won nine of its last thirteen games.
--White Sox lost last six games, allowing 33 runs.
--12 of last 13 Cleveland games stayed under total.
•Rangers-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Martinez is 2-3, 6.18 in his last five starts.
--Paxton is 3-1, 3.03 in six starts this season.
--Rangers are 4-3 in their last seven games.
--Seattle won 14 of its last 19 games.
--Three of last four Mariner games went over the total.
Interleague
•Marlins-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Eovaldi is 0-2, 7.36 in his last couple starts.
--Shoemaker is 3-1, 2.66 in his last four starts.
--Miami is 10-6 in its last sixteen games.
--Angels won nine of their last thirteen games.
--13 of last 18 Angel games stayed under the total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen is 12-3 in his team starts (80.0%) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. The left-hander has also logged an impressive 11-2 mark for the Orioles against AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs per game during the campaign.
Chen has won six of seven decisions over his last eight assignments while posting a 2.98 ERA in that span. The Taiwan native struggled in his last outing against the Rays on June 28, yielding five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings, and is 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-30 with a homer versus Chen, who has 109 strikeouts and 25 walks over 143 2/3 frames.
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