Craig Davis
Tuesday's Lineup
30 DIME ---- BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Shields as listed pitchers)
Remember last week when I told you to side with the Baltimore Orioles over Tampa Bay when James Shields was on the mound? Remember that the game was played in Tampa where the Rays dominate? Remember that the Orioles won the game, 8-7, at +240 money? Those of you who were with me that day remember it well, and you'll see again tonight why I'm not ever in favor of backing James Shields when listed as a favorite. No longer is he "Big Game" James like he was in 2008. In fact, this entire pitching staff is a shell of what it was last year when they helped the Rays get to the World Series. And if you're looking at Shields' overall ERA... don't.
The first half of his season and the second half are complete opposites (3.42 ERA vs. 4.95 ERA) and it's no surprise to see his ERA around 4 as we approach September. Shields hasn't won a game since August 8th at Seattle, and even in that win he wasn't spectacular (5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER). He's lost 4 of his last five starts and the Rays have dropped five of his last six starts. His fastball seems to have lost a little velocity and teams are really starting to sit back and wait for his predictable change up. Shields' last outing vs. Toronto resulted in a loss as he allowed 8 hits and 5 ERs in 8 innings of work and I see a similar result tonight.
As for Brett Cecil, Toronto's starter, it's true... he has been beaten around in two of his last three outings, but in his one and only start against Tampa Bay he lasted seven full innings, allowing four hits and one earned run in a Toronto win. His home record and ERA is clearly better at home than it is on the road and with the pressure square on the shoulders of the Rays and Shields, I believe you'll see Cecil pitch looser than he has in his last start against Boston. The Rays hit around 20 points better at home than they do on the road (.258) and given the results of Cecil's and Shields' last start vs. the other team, I think the best play on the board tonight is Toronto, PLUS money, over James Shields and the Tampa Bay Rays.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME---------GL GUYS
Tuesday's Lineup
30 DIME ---- BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Shields as listed pitchers)
Remember last week when I told you to side with the Baltimore Orioles over Tampa Bay when James Shields was on the mound? Remember that the game was played in Tampa where the Rays dominate? Remember that the Orioles won the game, 8-7, at +240 money? Those of you who were with me that day remember it well, and you'll see again tonight why I'm not ever in favor of backing James Shields when listed as a favorite. No longer is he "Big Game" James like he was in 2008. In fact, this entire pitching staff is a shell of what it was last year when they helped the Rays get to the World Series. And if you're looking at Shields' overall ERA... don't.
The first half of his season and the second half are complete opposites (3.42 ERA vs. 4.95 ERA) and it's no surprise to see his ERA around 4 as we approach September. Shields hasn't won a game since August 8th at Seattle, and even in that win he wasn't spectacular (5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER). He's lost 4 of his last five starts and the Rays have dropped five of his last six starts. His fastball seems to have lost a little velocity and teams are really starting to sit back and wait for his predictable change up. Shields' last outing vs. Toronto resulted in a loss as he allowed 8 hits and 5 ERs in 8 innings of work and I see a similar result tonight.
As for Brett Cecil, Toronto's starter, it's true... he has been beaten around in two of his last three outings, but in his one and only start against Tampa Bay he lasted seven full innings, allowing four hits and one earned run in a Toronto win. His home record and ERA is clearly better at home than it is on the road and with the pressure square on the shoulders of the Rays and Shields, I believe you'll see Cecil pitch looser than he has in his last start against Boston. The Rays hit around 20 points better at home than they do on the road (.258) and given the results of Cecil's and Shields' last start vs. the other team, I think the best play on the board tonight is Toronto, PLUS money, over James Shields and the Tampa Bay Rays.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME---------GL GUYS
Jack Jones
15* on Pittsburgh Pirates +165
There is a lot of value on the Pirates as a pretty big underdog against the Phillies tonight. Pitt is playing well of late, winning 5 of their last 6 games, and they have one of their best starters on the mound tonight. Ross Ohlendorf has been a force for the Pirates when he throws in Pittsburgh. He is 8-2 in 13 starts at home with a 3.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP (the Pirates are 10-3 in those starts). Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies, and while he has been a solid addition to the rotation, he is only 3-3 in 10 road starts this season. The Phillies are good on the road, but the value is on the Pirates in Pittsburgh Tuesday night.
20* No-Brainer on San Francisco Giants -113
I'm taking the Giants over the Diamondbacks in what should be a pretty good pitchers' duel. Matt Cain has been exceptional for the Giants, going 12-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts for San Francisco. He's been even better at home going 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 starts at San Francisco (the Giants are 10-2 in those 12 starts). Arizona's Dan Haren have numbers that can compete with Cain's on the season, but Haren has struggled over his last 3 starts, collecting two losses, a 5.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have lost 7 of their last 8 games overall, and though they won their last time out, they are on the tail-end of a 10-game road trip, facing one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
15* on Pittsburgh Pirates +165
There is a lot of value on the Pirates as a pretty big underdog against the Phillies tonight. Pitt is playing well of late, winning 5 of their last 6 games, and they have one of their best starters on the mound tonight. Ross Ohlendorf has been a force for the Pirates when he throws in Pittsburgh. He is 8-2 in 13 starts at home with a 3.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP (the Pirates are 10-3 in those starts). Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies, and while he has been a solid addition to the rotation, he is only 3-3 in 10 road starts this season. The Phillies are good on the road, but the value is on the Pirates in Pittsburgh Tuesday night.
20* No-Brainer on San Francisco Giants -113
I'm taking the Giants over the Diamondbacks in what should be a pretty good pitchers' duel. Matt Cain has been exceptional for the Giants, going 12-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts for San Francisco. He's been even better at home going 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 starts at San Francisco (the Giants are 10-2 in those 12 starts). Arizona's Dan Haren have numbers that can compete with Cain's on the season, but Haren has struggled over his last 3 starts, collecting two losses, a 5.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have lost 7 of their last 8 games overall, and though they won their last time out, they are on the tail-end of a 10-game road trip, facing one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
Gina
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:05 p.m. est.
Washington Nationals (44-81) at Chicago Cubs (62-60)
R) Garrett Mock (2-5) vs. (R) Carlos Zambrano (7-4)
Washington's Garrett Mock (2-5, 5.10) is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. The Nationals are 3-7 in the right-hander's last 10 starts.
Chicago's Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.35 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs have won the right-hander's last 5 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 at home.
Washington Nationals have dropped six of their last seven games overall and the last six meetings against the Cubs, just 2-7 at Wrigley Field. Go with the struggling Cubs back at home tonight against the sorry Nationals. The Cubs are 8-4 in their last 12 games at home and have won Zambrano's last 5 starts against the Nationals.
Chicago Cubs -260
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:05 p.m. est.
Washington Nationals (44-81) at Chicago Cubs (62-60)
R) Garrett Mock (2-5) vs. (R) Carlos Zambrano (7-4)
Washington's Garrett Mock (2-5, 5.10) is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. The Nationals are 3-7 in the right-hander's last 10 starts.
Chicago's Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.35 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs have won the right-hander's last 5 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 at home.
Washington Nationals have dropped six of their last seven games overall and the last six meetings against the Cubs, just 2-7 at Wrigley Field. Go with the struggling Cubs back at home tonight against the sorry Nationals. The Cubs are 8-4 in their last 12 games at home and have won Zambrano's last 5 starts against the Nationals.
Chicago Cubs -260
Mr. A's
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:15 PM EST.
Houston Astros (61-63) at St. Louis Cardinals (72-54)
(L) Wandy Rodriguez (12-7) vs. (R) Adam Wainwright (14-7)
Oddsmakers: St. Louis as a -170 home favorite with the total listed at 7 'over'.
St. Louis Cardinals -170
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:40 PM EST.
Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51) at Colorado Rockies (71-54)
(L) Clayton Kershaw (8-7) vs. (R) Jason Hammel (8-7)
Oddsmakers: Los Angeles as a -120 road favorite with the total listed at 9½ 'over'.
Colorado Rockies +100
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:15 PM EST.
Houston Astros (61-63) at St. Louis Cardinals (72-54)
(L) Wandy Rodriguez (12-7) vs. (R) Adam Wainwright (14-7)
Oddsmakers: St. Louis as a -170 home favorite with the total listed at 7 'over'.
St. Louis Cardinals -170
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 8:40 PM EST.
Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51) at Colorado Rockies (71-54)
(L) Clayton Kershaw (8-7) vs. (R) Jason Hammel (8-7)
Oddsmakers: Los Angeles as a -120 road favorite with the total listed at 9½ 'over'.
Colorado Rockies +100
Vegas Informer
WNBA PLAYS
2 Unit Play. #653 Take Over 165 Sacramento at Atlanta (Tuesday 8/25 7:35 PM)
Atlanta is averaging 83.7ppg and tonight at home we should see the same kind of offense. Sacramento can score with anyone and lately the Monarchs have scored points on the road. Sacramento is 6-0 O/U in their last 6 road games. Atlanta is 8-3 O/U in their last 11 games.
4 Unit Play. #656 Take Over 143 Washington at Seattle (Tuesday 8/25 10:05 PM)
The Seattle Storm is 10-3 at home and have won three straight over Washington at KeyArena by an average of 15.3 points. Wanted to play Seattle but with the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Seattle 6 of them have gone “Over” the total.
These are all the picks for the WNBA today.
WNBA PLAYS
2 Unit Play. #653 Take Over 165 Sacramento at Atlanta (Tuesday 8/25 7:35 PM)
Atlanta is averaging 83.7ppg and tonight at home we should see the same kind of offense. Sacramento can score with anyone and lately the Monarchs have scored points on the road. Sacramento is 6-0 O/U in their last 6 road games. Atlanta is 8-3 O/U in their last 11 games.
4 Unit Play. #656 Take Over 143 Washington at Seattle (Tuesday 8/25 10:05 PM)
The Seattle Storm is 10-3 at home and have won three straight over Washington at KeyArena by an average of 15.3 points. Wanted to play Seattle but with the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Seattle 6 of them have gone “Over” the total.
These are all the picks for the WNBA today.
Al DeMarco
Tuesday's Play
5 Dime - Atlanta (Jurrjens) - 1 1/2 Runs over San Diego (Latos)
San Diego rookie Matt Latos had won four straight starts and held foes to a .190 average before facing St. Louis on August 14. In that contest, the Cards roughed up the 21-year-old hurler, collecting eight hits and seven runs in four-plus innings. Latos fared worse in his next start five days later against the Cubs, lasting just 3.2 innings, departing the scene after allowing five runs and walking four batters.
Latos beat the Braves on August 3 at home, yielding six hits and two runs over seven innings, but tonight he's facing an Atlanta team that's playing much better, having won 13 of its last 18. And the Braves have dominated the series - despite that August 3 loss - winning 19 of the last 25 meetings overall.
The Braves send Jair Jurrjens to the mound to face a San Diego club that's batted just .160 while scoring a total of eight runs in its last five games. In all, the Padres have lost eight of their last 11.
Jurrjens, who carries a 2.81 ERA in 13 home starts into the contest, beat the Padres in his lone start against them last May in Atlanta, a game in which he yielded one run on seven hits while fanning eight over six innings.
The Braves bounced back from a series opening loss at home to Florida to take the final two games against the Marlins over the weekend, giving them four wins in their last five outings. Considering San Diego's offensive woes of late combined with Latos' recent struggles, and Jurrjens' effectiveness this season (2.99 ERA on the year), it's worth laying the 1 1/2 runs to make Atlanta a manageable home favorite at a significantly reduced price.
Tuesday's Play
5 Dime - Atlanta (Jurrjens) - 1 1/2 Runs over San Diego (Latos)
San Diego rookie Matt Latos had won four straight starts and held foes to a .190 average before facing St. Louis on August 14. In that contest, the Cards roughed up the 21-year-old hurler, collecting eight hits and seven runs in four-plus innings. Latos fared worse in his next start five days later against the Cubs, lasting just 3.2 innings, departing the scene after allowing five runs and walking four batters.
Latos beat the Braves on August 3 at home, yielding six hits and two runs over seven innings, but tonight he's facing an Atlanta team that's playing much better, having won 13 of its last 18. And the Braves have dominated the series - despite that August 3 loss - winning 19 of the last 25 meetings overall.
The Braves send Jair Jurrjens to the mound to face a San Diego club that's batted just .160 while scoring a total of eight runs in its last five games. In all, the Padres have lost eight of their last 11.
Jurrjens, who carries a 2.81 ERA in 13 home starts into the contest, beat the Padres in his lone start against them last May in Atlanta, a game in which he yielded one run on seven hits while fanning eight over six innings.
The Braves bounced back from a series opening loss at home to Florida to take the final two games against the Marlins over the weekend, giving them four wins in their last five outings. Considering San Diego's offensive woes of late combined with Latos' recent struggles, and Jurrjens' effectiveness this season (2.99 ERA on the year), it's worth laying the 1 1/2 runs to make Atlanta a manageable home favorite at a significantly reduced price.
Michael Cannon
Tuesday's Play...
25 Dime –
BRAVES (With Jurrjens) -1 ½ RUN LINE over PADRES (With Latos)
Take the Braves on the run line over the Padres tonight.
Atlanta has won 13 of 18 and is battling for a playoff spot. The Padres are 22 games under .500 and have lost 19 of 25 to Atlanta since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Two teams headed in decidedly different directions.
Jair Jurrjens will get the start for the Braves and he’s 10-8 with a 2.99 ERA on the year. The right-hander will be facing a Padres team that has been held to eight runs in their last five games while batting .160.
The Braves are averaging 5.6 runs per game in Jurrjens’ last 18 starts.
San Diego has lost eight of 11 overall and will start rookie Mat Latos. The right-hander was shelled in his last start and has lost two straight overall. Latos surrendered five runs, seven hits and four walks in just 3 2-3 innings in Wednesday’s 7-1 loss to the Cubs.
Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the league and should be able to win this game easily.
Take the Braves on the run line.
Tuesday's Play...
25 Dime –
BRAVES (With Jurrjens) -1 ½ RUN LINE over PADRES (With Latos)
Take the Braves on the run line over the Padres tonight.
Atlanta has won 13 of 18 and is battling for a playoff spot. The Padres are 22 games under .500 and have lost 19 of 25 to Atlanta since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Two teams headed in decidedly different directions.
Jair Jurrjens will get the start for the Braves and he’s 10-8 with a 2.99 ERA on the year. The right-hander will be facing a Padres team that has been held to eight runs in their last five games while batting .160.
The Braves are averaging 5.6 runs per game in Jurrjens’ last 18 starts.
San Diego has lost eight of 11 overall and will start rookie Mat Latos. The right-hander was shelled in his last start and has lost two straight overall. Latos surrendered five runs, seven hits and four walks in just 3 2-3 innings in Wednesday’s 7-1 loss to the Cubs.
Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the league and should be able to win this game easily.
Take the Braves on the run line.
Scott Delaney
Tuesday ...
30-Dime Cubs -1' Runs (Zambrano over Mock - There isn’t a better opportunity than right now for the Cubs, if they plan on playing deep into October that is. Coming off that series-finale win over the Dodgers, the Cubbies are back home off that 2-5 road trip and are in desperate need of a winning run. They’ve lost 12 of 17, they’re eight games back of St. Louis in the National League and they currently reside in fifth place in the wild-card race.
That’s the bad news.
The good … the lovable baby bears are 35-22 at Wrigley Field and are averaging 5.0 runs per game there. They’ve taken seven of nine when Washington is visiting the North Side and they’re on a 6-0 run against it overall – including a four-game road sweep in D.C. a little more than a month ago.
So after a day of rest from the Southern Cal excursion, I’m banking on this team to be motivated after Sunday’s 3-1 win over the NL West-leading Dodgers. I am also banking on a pitching mismatch of huge proportion, as Carlos Zambrano toes the slab after a stint on the disabled list, making his first start since leaving with back spasms in Miami on Aug. 1.
The Big Z is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in his last five starts while the power right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 outings against the Nationals, who have had no rest after losing 7-1 to Milwaukee last night at home.
Washington, which comes in after a 1-6 slide at home, will be playing its eighth game in as many days and 14th game the last 15 days.
This team won’t be prepared to challenge the Cubs, and that includes Nats right-hander Garrett Mock, who was tagged for seven runs (four earned) over 3-1/3 innings by these same Cubbies, losing his first start of the season on July 19.
All Cubs tonight, lay the run line with confidence.
Tuesday ...
30-Dime Cubs -1' Runs (Zambrano over Mock - There isn’t a better opportunity than right now for the Cubs, if they plan on playing deep into October that is. Coming off that series-finale win over the Dodgers, the Cubbies are back home off that 2-5 road trip and are in desperate need of a winning run. They’ve lost 12 of 17, they’re eight games back of St. Louis in the National League and they currently reside in fifth place in the wild-card race.
That’s the bad news.
The good … the lovable baby bears are 35-22 at Wrigley Field and are averaging 5.0 runs per game there. They’ve taken seven of nine when Washington is visiting the North Side and they’re on a 6-0 run against it overall – including a four-game road sweep in D.C. a little more than a month ago.
So after a day of rest from the Southern Cal excursion, I’m banking on this team to be motivated after Sunday’s 3-1 win over the NL West-leading Dodgers. I am also banking on a pitching mismatch of huge proportion, as Carlos Zambrano toes the slab after a stint on the disabled list, making his first start since leaving with back spasms in Miami on Aug. 1.
The Big Z is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in his last five starts while the power right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 outings against the Nationals, who have had no rest after losing 7-1 to Milwaukee last night at home.
Washington, which comes in after a 1-6 slide at home, will be playing its eighth game in as many days and 14th game the last 15 days.
This team won’t be prepared to challenge the Cubs, and that includes Nats right-hander Garrett Mock, who was tagged for seven runs (four earned) over 3-1/3 innings by these same Cubbies, losing his first start of the season on July 19.
All Cubs tonight, lay the run line with confidence.
