THE SPORTS ADVISORS
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Rutgers (11-20, 11-11 ATS) vs. Notre Dame (17-13, 8-16 ATS)
Notre Dame closed out a disappointing regular season with Friday’s 74-55 rout of St. John’s, cashing as an 11½-point home chalk. The Irish followed up seven-game losing skid by winning five of their last eight games, but they finished in a 4-12 ATS slump, alternating spread-covers in their last six.
Rutgers snapped an eight-game SU losing streak with Saturday’s 45-42 victory over South Florida, but came up just short as a 3½-point home favorite. The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover in three straight games after going 6-2 ATS in their previous eight (6-1 ATS as an underdog).
The Scarlet Knights went to South Bend, Ind., on Feb. 25 and put a scare into the Irish before falling 70-65. However, Rutgers easily covered as a 14-point road underdog, improving to 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, including a 72-65 upset win as a seven-point underdog in the 2005 Big East tournament.
Going back to the 2005 tournament loss to Rutgers, Notre Dame is 1-3 SU and ATS in opening-round Big East tournament games. The Scarlet Knights have won their last two opening-round contests (2-0 ATS), most recently qualifying for the event in 2005-06.
Rutgers is on ATS slides of 1-4 overall (all in the Big East), 2-5 on Tuesday and 1-4 at neutral sites. Aside from a 5-0 ATS run on Tuesday, Notre Dame carries nothing but negative pointspread slumps, including 4-12 overall, 4-11 in Big East play, 4-9 as a favorite this season, 2-5 at neutral sites and 3-7 against teams with a losing record.
The under is on streaks of 11-1 for Rutgers overall (all in conference), 5-2 for Rutgers on Tuesday, 6-0 for Rutgers after a non-cover, 4-0 for Notre Dame overall (all in conference), 4-0 for Notre Dame after a SU win and 4-1 for Notre Dame after a spread-cover. Also, the last two series meetings stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS and UNDER
South Florida (9-21, 16-13 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (16-14, 16-9 ATS)
South Florida went 1-7 SU down the stretch, including Saturday’s 45-42 loss at Rutgers, though it cashed as a 3½-point road underdog for its second straight spread-cover. The Bulls, who are appearing in their first Big East tournament, won just four of 18 conference games, with two of those wins coming against DePaul, which went winless in the Big East. Also, South Florida, which set a season-low for points scored at Rutgers on Saturday, tallied 62 points or fewer in 15 of 18 league games.
Seton Hall also struggled to the finish line, losing five of its last seven, though one of the Pirates’ victories came Saturday at Cincinnati, a 67-63 overtime triumph as a 6½-point underdog. On the bright side, Seton Hall capped the regular season on a 12-4 ATS run, all in Big East action, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and 3-0 ATS in the last three as a favorite. However, the school has lost four straight opening-round Big East tournament games (0-4 ATS) since 2004.
The Pirates crushed South Florida 75-60 as a seven-point home favorite on Feb. 25. Seton Hall has won all six meetings since the Bulls joined the Big East three years ago, getting the money in each of the last five. The winning team has averaged 80.2 ppg in the six head-to-head matchups.
In addition to ATS runs of 12-4 overall and 3-0 as a favorite, Seton Hall is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Tuesday, 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a spread-cover. The Pirates have failed to cover in 18 of their last 24 neutral-site outings, while South Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six at neutral sites.
The over is 5-1 in the six all-time series meetings. Also, the over is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five against teams with a winning record and 5-1 in Seton Hall’s past six against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SETON HALL and OVER
HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Cleveland State (24-10, 17-12 ATS) vs. (16) Butler (26-4, 16-11-1 ATS)
Butler advanced to the Horizon League tournament championship game for the fourth straight year by holding off Wright State 62-57 on Saturday, and the Bulldogs have now followed up a two-game slide with four straight wins. However, they failed to cash as a 10-point favorite against Wright State and are now in a 2-4 ATS funk (1-4 ATS as a favorite in conference play).
Cleveland State advanced to its second straight Horizon League title tilt with Saturday’s 73-67 upset win over Wisconsin-Green Bay as a one-point underdog. The Vikings have won three in a row and 11 of 13, going 12-1 SU in conference play during this stretch. The lone loss was a 58-56 setback at Butler as a seven-point underdog in the regular-season finale Feb. 28. Cleveland State also lost to the Bulldogs by two points at home way back on Dec. 4, 50-48 as a 2½-point chalk.
Butler has won four straight meetings in this rivalry and eight of the last nine (5-4 ATS). Last year, the Bulldogs crushed Cleveland State 70-55 as a 10-point favorite to claim their second consecutive tournament championship. Butler can match the Horizon League record of six tournament titles with a victory tonight.
The Vikings are in ATS slumps of 5-16 on Tuesday and 3-7 at neutral sites, while Butler has covered in 11 of its last 16 at neutral venues and 12 of its last 17 versus winning teams.
The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, but otherwise the “over” is on stretches for Butler of 7-2 in Horizon League action, 5-0 on Tuesday and 6-0 at neutral sites, while the over for Cleveland is on runs of 8-3 overall (7-3 in league play), 6-1 at neutral sites and 11-3 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER
NBA
Dallas (38-25, 30-33 ATS) at Phoenix (34-29, 24-37-2 ATS)
The Mavericks, losers of five straight road games both SU and ATS, kick off a four-game Western Conference road trip at America West Arena against the Suns, who return home after a winless four-game trip of their own.
Dallas used a big fourth quarter to crush the Wizards 119-103 as a 12½-point home chalk Saturday. The Mavericks have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games and alternated ATS wins and losses in their last 14. Rick Carlisle’s club has been a disaster on the highway recently, getting outscored 100-85 during their five-game SU and ATS road losing streak, scoring 87, 86, 76, 87 and 88 points against the Jazz, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder and Hornets.
Phoenix battled back from a double-digit halftime deficit at San Antonio on Sunday, but still came up short 103-98 as a 4½-point road underdog, ending its four-game journey to Orlando, Miami, Houston and San Antonio at 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. On the bright side, the Suns have won seven of their last eight at home (6-1-1 ATS), including the last three in a row SU and ATS. The winner is 25-1-2 ATS in the Suns’ last 28 games, including 12-1-1 ATS in its last 14 at home.
The home team has dominated the first two meetings of the season between these rivals, with Dallas rolling 112-97 as a four-point home chalk on Dec. 4 and the Suns returning the favor in Phoenix with a 128-110 rout as a seven-point favorite a month later. The host has won five of the last six meetings (4-1-1 ATS), and the winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 battles. Also in this rivalry, the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS In the last six and Phoenix is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven.
In addition to failing to cash in five straight road outings, the Mavericks are on pointspread declines of 1-4 against the Western Conference and 1-6 after a SU win, and they’ve gone 16 straight games without covering in back-to-back contests. Phoenix is on ATS tears of 6-1-1 at home, 12-5-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 after a non-cover.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads (2-0 this year), and four of the last five clashes at America West Arena have hurdled the total. Also, the over is on runs of 5-2 for Dallas overall, 9-4 for Phoenix overall, 4-2 for Phoenix at home and 5-2 for Phoenix against the Western Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER