Craig Davis
Tuesday's Lineup
30 Dime ---- CAVALIERS
10 Dime ---- RUTGERS
CLEVELAND --- This game has absolute blowout written all over it, and luckily we're backing the right side of this lopsided affair. The Cavs beat the Clips by 17 back in late-January, holding yet another opponent to under 100 points while scoring 112 themselves. That's the great part about backing a team like the Cavs whenever you get the chance. They are one of the few teams in the NBA that actually has the ability to score over 100 points per night while playing very good on the other end of the floor.
The Clippers, on the other hand, are one of the league's worst teams and stand at a disastrous 15-48 on the season. Right now these two teams have different things in mind at this point in the season and it plays right into our hands. First off, the Cavs are fighting for home court advantage in the Eastern Conference and trying to have the league's best record to get home court in the Finals (should they make it that far). After Boston handed them a defeat last week, that put the two teams in a virtual deadlock for best record in the East. With a win tonight they can put a small separation between themselves and the Celtics and they realize that it's teams like the Clippers that can play the role of spoiler if Cleveland doesn't bring its A-game. You can bet everyone from LeBron James to Anderson Varajeo and everyone in between is going to do whatever it takes to win, and dominate, a lesser opponent like the Clippers tonight. They realize how important having home court advantage is (just look at their home record) and they won't let this one get away.
The Clippers are looking at things differently. They're first trying to figure out what they've got on their bench for next season along with the fact they're looking at the draft lottery and how many ping pong balls they can get. They're in a dogfight with Sacramento, Oklahoma City and Washington for the league's worst record right now... and I'm not saying they'll try to lose tonight, but you know that has to be in the back of their minds.
Tonight's game is the first of a three-game, West Coast road trip for the Cavs and they usually start these road trips hot. The Cavs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs. teams from the West and 20-8 in their last 28 vs. teams with a losing record while the Clippers are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 coming in off a SU loss. Cavs rout the Clippers in my strongest NBA play in a few weeks.
RUTGERS --- This one is as much about going AGAINST Notre Dame as it is backing Rutgers... maybe even more so. Look, I know the Irish has more talent and SHOULD be able to name their score against the Knights, but that just hasn't been the case recently and a big part of that is because they simply don't play defense. They'd rather outscore everyone they play on the offensive end rather than actually having to give some effort on the other end of the floor.
Big East teams are scoring an average of 75 PPG vs. the Irish while shooting over 43%. You won't get much pressure defense from Notre Dame, you won't see them forcing turnovers and you won't see them blocking many shots (they rank last in that category in the Big East). The only meeting between these two took place a couple of weeks ago in South Bend when the Irish were lucky to come away with a five-point win.
Rutgers stud Mike Rosario is coming off a poor shooting night in his last game so you can bet he's been working on fine-tuning a few things before tonight's matchup. When they last met he scored 20 points despite shooting just 4 of 12 from downtown. And for Notre Dame, I'm sure they'll get another double-double from Luke Harangody, and that's expected, but the Knights need to do a better job of trying to find ways to frustrate Kyle McAlarney and Tory Jackson.
Notre Dame has failed to cover 11 times in their last 15 games vs. Big East foes and 12 times in their last 16 overall. Rutgers, meanwhile, has dominated ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Irish, covering nine of the last 10. Notre Dame wins, but barely, giving the Knights yet another ATS cover.
BOUGHGT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
