Wunderdog
Connecticut at New York
Pick: New York -1
The Eastern Conference Semifinals will begin in New York as the Connecticut Sun take on the New York Liberty. The Sun opened the season looking like the class of the WNBA with an 8-1 start, but the finish was a very pedestrian 13-12 mark, which included losses in three of their last four games. What is most eye-opening here is the Sun has failed to beat a team with a winning record on the road since June 20! They have averaged losing these games by 6.5 points a game. The Liberty suffered two losses to the Sun during their opening 8-1 run, but when these teams met later in the season, the Liberty won at Connecticut by six points, as a 5.5 point dog. The Liberty has not only bridged the gap between them and the Sun at the beginning of the season, but is valued here at home especially in a game they just basically have to win to get the cover.
Connecticut at New York
Pick: New York -1
The Eastern Conference Semifinals will begin in New York as the Connecticut Sun take on the New York Liberty. The Sun opened the season looking like the class of the WNBA with an 8-1 start, but the finish was a very pedestrian 13-12 mark, which included losses in three of their last four games. What is most eye-opening here is the Sun has failed to beat a team with a winning record on the road since June 20! They have averaged losing these games by 6.5 points a game. The Liberty suffered two losses to the Sun during their opening 8-1 run, but when these teams met later in the season, the Liberty won at Connecticut by six points, as a 5.5 point dog. The Liberty has not only bridged the gap between them and the Sun at the beginning of the season, but is valued here at home especially in a game they just basically have to win to get the cover.
Wunderdog
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play. Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City -201 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2)
The Royals are currently playing well, and have the good feeling of a team out of any playoff contention as they have won six straight, which makes it fun to go to the ballpark. The same can't be said for Seattle which has now lost seven straight in a row and nine straight on the road. Zack Grienke has pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last six starts, and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those six outings. Ryan Feieraband has not pitched well at all, as he brings a 5.79 ERA into this one with an even-worse 9.88 road ERA. The Royals may be in last place in the AL Central, but they have more wins against left-handed pitching than any other team at 32-22. I like Royals for the sweep.
Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +185 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.6)
Atlanta has been completely lost on the road, but they enter this one with the same home record (41-36) as the Phillies’ road mark. Cole Hammels has pitched well this season, but in his last six road starts the Phillies have managed just two wins. Consider those two wins were over the worst two teams in the NL in Washington and San Diego - he hasn't beaten a decent team on the road since before the All-Star break. Jo Jo Reyes has not pitched well this season, but his last home start he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings, and may have found something to build on. The oddsmakers like to pile on the chalk with teams in a pennant race, turning the value the other way, so I'll back the Braves here.
Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +183 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.5)
The Mets’ bullpen is in shambles. They have already blown 27 saves on the season and leading 8-2 last night, they needed eight relievers to hold off the Nats, winning 9-7. Johan Santana has been robbed of six wins this season, because the bullpen could not close the game. It has lead to him throwing more pitches (112.5 avg in his last six), than Mets’ ownership would like to see, and may start costing him down the stretch. The high pitch count still hasn't gotten him past the seventh inning in any of the games and he has left to a no decision in three of them. Tim Redding has started 19 games in which he allowed three or less runs, and the Nats have won four of his last five starts. The Mets fell apart last year and show signs of doing so again - blowing a four-game lead in just a week, and their pen can't be trusted. The value is on the Nats here.
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play. Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City -201 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2)
The Royals are currently playing well, and have the good feeling of a team out of any playoff contention as they have won six straight, which makes it fun to go to the ballpark. The same can't be said for Seattle which has now lost seven straight in a row and nine straight on the road. Zack Grienke has pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last six starts, and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those six outings. Ryan Feieraband has not pitched well at all, as he brings a 5.79 ERA into this one with an even-worse 9.88 road ERA. The Royals may be in last place in the AL Central, but they have more wins against left-handed pitching than any other team at 32-22. I like Royals for the sweep.
Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +185 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.6)
Atlanta has been completely lost on the road, but they enter this one with the same home record (41-36) as the Phillies’ road mark. Cole Hammels has pitched well this season, but in his last six road starts the Phillies have managed just two wins. Consider those two wins were over the worst two teams in the NL in Washington and San Diego - he hasn't beaten a decent team on the road since before the All-Star break. Jo Jo Reyes has not pitched well this season, but his last home start he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings, and may have found something to build on. The oddsmakers like to pile on the chalk with teams in a pennant race, turning the value the other way, so I'll back the Braves here.
Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +183 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.5)
The Mets’ bullpen is in shambles. They have already blown 27 saves on the season and leading 8-2 last night, they needed eight relievers to hold off the Nats, winning 9-7. Johan Santana has been robbed of six wins this season, because the bullpen could not close the game. It has lead to him throwing more pitches (112.5 avg in his last six), than Mets’ ownership would like to see, and may start costing him down the stretch. The high pitch count still hasn't gotten him past the seventh inning in any of the games and he has left to a no decision in three of them. Tim Redding has started 19 games in which he allowed three or less runs, and the Nats have won four of his last five starts. The Mets fell apart last year and show signs of doing so again - blowing a four-game lead in just a week, and their pen can't be trusted. The value is on the Nats here.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Colorado
2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.
What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.
For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!
Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!
Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.
While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.
Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.
Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.
Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:
First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.
Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!
Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!
Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Colorado
2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.
What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.
For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!
Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!
Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.
While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.
Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.
Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.
Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:
First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.
Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!
Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!
Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
These are today's plays:
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
5 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (+$113) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
11:35PM Central Time
5 STAR: (918) OAKLAND (+$104) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $500 to win $520)
2:35PM Central Time
These are today's plays:
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
5 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (+$113) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
11:35PM Central Time
5 STAR: (918) OAKLAND (+$104) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $500 to win $520)
2:35PM Central Time
