NO SIR ,I SAID I BELIEVE HIS 300* SHOULD WIN BUT I NEED TO SEE WHAT HE IS PUTTING OUT I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT I DON'T NECESSARILY AGREE WITH ALL THE TOUTS OUT THERE,IF A PLAY MAKES SENSE I WOULD HAMMER IT IF IT DOES NOT I WOULD STAY AWAY WE ARE ALL BIG BOYS HERE SO KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN BE CAREFUL AND JUST OBSERVE EVERYTHING :wink: AND I MEAN EVERYTHING BE SMART MY FRIEND AND YOU WILL SEE WHAT I CAN SEE.
Mr A's
Thursday, September 18th, 2008 7:05 PM EST.
Chicago White Sox (84-67) at New York Yankees (81-71)
(R) Javier Vazquez (12-13) vs. (R) Mike Mussina (17-9)
Chicago's Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13) is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.
New York's Mike Mussina (17-9, 3.63 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 17-16 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 career starts against the White Sox.
The White Sox have lost seven of their last 10 road games and nine of its last 12 versus the Yankees.
Take the Yankees in the Big Apple. The Yankees are 7-2 in Mussina's last 9 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 at home. The right-hander has won five straight starts against the White Sox at home.
New York Yankees -130
Thursday, September 18th, 2008 7:05 PM EST.
Chicago White Sox (84-67) at New York Yankees (81-71)
(R) Javier Vazquez (12-13) vs. (R) Mike Mussina (17-9)
Chicago's Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13) is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.
New York's Mike Mussina (17-9, 3.63 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 17-16 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 career starts against the White Sox.
The White Sox have lost seven of their last 10 road games and nine of its last 12 versus the Yankees.
Take the Yankees in the Big Apple. The Yankees are 7-2 in Mussina's last 9 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 at home. The right-hander has won five straight starts against the White Sox at home.
New York Yankees -130
Thu, 09/18/08 - 8:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet303 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 304 Colorado
Analysis:
-2.5 at Bookmaker.com
We're getting TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE on a team that has a 34-6 record over its last 40 games - especially when considering that East Carolina is a Top 10 caliber team - displaying that in shutting down both Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks.
West Virginia has had two weeks to get prepared for this ESPN clash and will undoubtedly get back to is winnings ways and that's RUNNING THE FOOTBALL.
Why is this important you ask? Well the Colorado Buffaloes are 0-12-1 ATS when getting outrushed by an opponent during the Dan Hawkins' era, which includes an 0-4-1 mark at home.
That's trouble considering that West Virginia has outrused all 17 opponents on the road the past three years and 34 of its last 35 opponents overall. They've managed to produce 4,711 yards on the ground compared to just 1,591 for their opponents.
West Virginia still has some players that are not use to losing, as this is the first time the current senior class has been at a .500 record - which is VERY IMPORTANT when preparing for a game.
Finally - West Virginia relishes this type of road situation, as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games - covering the spread by 6.5 points.
triple-dime bet303 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 304 Colorado
Analysis:
-2.5 at Bookmaker.com
We're getting TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE on a team that has a 34-6 record over its last 40 games - especially when considering that East Carolina is a Top 10 caliber team - displaying that in shutting down both Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks.
West Virginia has had two weeks to get prepared for this ESPN clash and will undoubtedly get back to is winnings ways and that's RUNNING THE FOOTBALL.
Why is this important you ask? Well the Colorado Buffaloes are 0-12-1 ATS when getting outrushed by an opponent during the Dan Hawkins' era, which includes an 0-4-1 mark at home.
That's trouble considering that West Virginia has outrused all 17 opponents on the road the past three years and 34 of its last 35 opponents overall. They've managed to produce 4,711 yards on the ground compared to just 1,591 for their opponents.
West Virginia still has some players that are not use to losing, as this is the first time the current senior class has been at a .500 record - which is VERY IMPORTANT when preparing for a game.
Finally - West Virginia relishes this type of road situation, as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games - covering the spread by 6.5 points.
GINA
Thursday, September 18, 2008 7:10 p.m. est.
Houston Astros (80-71) at Florida Marlins (79-72)
(R) Alberto Arias (1-0, 1.93) vs. (L) Scott Olsen (7-10, 4.31 ERA)
The hot Florida Marlins have won their last seven games overall and the last four against the Houston Astros at home, including Wednesday's 14-2 pounding of Houston.
Go with the surging Marlins at Dolphin Stadium for a three-game sweep of Houston. Florida's southpaw Scott Olsen is 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA in two career starts against the Astros.
Florida Marlins -150
Thursday, September 18, 2008 7:10 p.m. est.
Houston Astros (80-71) at Florida Marlins (79-72)
(R) Alberto Arias (1-0, 1.93) vs. (L) Scott Olsen (7-10, 4.31 ERA)
The hot Florida Marlins have won their last seven games overall and the last four against the Houston Astros at home, including Wednesday's 14-2 pounding of Houston.
Go with the surging Marlins at Dolphin Stadium for a three-game sweep of Houston. Florida's southpaw Scott Olsen is 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA in two career starts against the Astros.
Florida Marlins -150
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Total
double-dime bet908 FLA / 907 HOU Over 8 Bookmaker
Analysis: Unfortunately the hurricane Ike didn't just cause damages on the social life of thousands of people, but also in the sports life of the city and the Astros were one of the victims. The Astros were the hottest team in the whole MLB until September, 11th. But then the hurricane Ike prevented the Astros from playing until September, 14th and then all the momentum was gone. The team lost 4 consecutive games, with the offense being awful with .000, .037, .152 and .182 of Batting average. For this game, I expect the team to improve a little bit in the offense and I'll explain why later, with the Marlins at the same time being in a great run and fighting for the postseason via wildcard. Yesterday's game ended with a Marlins win by 14-2 and for today, I expect an high scoring affair once again, but much closer.
The Astros will send Alberto Arias, who on his debut for the Astros against the Pirates went scoreless in 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits. Even though he had a great debut, I expect today's game to be much different, as first of all Houston was on-fire at the time of his debut, with an huge momentum, which gave a lot of confidence to Arias, while right now the team is currently on a losing streak and lacking confidence. And to make things even worse, they will face a team with a great momentum right now, with 7 wins in a row and when this team has confidence, they are extremely dangerous in the offense, with them being 19-9 Over after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
On the other side, the Marlins will send the southpaw Scott Olsen and this may be the solution for the offense of the Astros. Olsen comes from a quality start against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings, but he has been terrible lately, as he allowed 4-6-4-4-3-5 runs before this quality outing. So I wouldn't be surprised if he has another letdown today. That's good news for the offense of the Astros, which has been horrible lately, but we need to remember that they faced Zambrano, Lilly, Volstad and Nolasco, which didn't help them at all and today against Olsen, their task will be much easier.
Houston is 14-2 Over after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and I expect a good response from both offenses today. The line is at 8 runs, so it is accessible, having in account the scenario of this game. Take the over in here. Double Dime Pick!
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB RunLine
dime bet905 NYM -1.5 (-125) Bookmaker vs 906 WAS
Analysis: This play has as a basic fundament an important psychological analysis, which combined to a technical analysis makes the Mets an excellent option for this game. Yesterday's win over the Nationals was extremely important in psychological terms, as we all remember the collapse of the Mets at the end of last season, where the Mets didn't hold a decent lead over the Phillies and ended up out of the postseason. The team entered a similar situation lately, as the team before yesterday's game had lost 3 of their last 4 games and curiously the Nationals were the responsible team for the two previous losses of the Mets and coincidence or not, it was also the Nats the team which was the main responsible for the Mets' last season collapse. If we add the fact that the Mets were coming from yesterday's game with just 2 and 0 runs scored in their previous two games, their scenario for yesterday's game wasn't great. However the Mets won yesterday by 9-7 and this win was one of the most important of the season for them and the team will now come more confident for today's game. This was the psychological analysis of the team.
The technical analysis also gives an edge for the Mets today. Johan Santana will start and this means the bullpen will have some rest today, which is great news for the team. The Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts and he has been awesome in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts.
On the other side, the Nationals will send Tim Redding, who comes from three outings where he struggled and had an ERA of 4.58. He has already beaten this season his record for most innings in a season and probably that's the reason why he has been struggling lately.
The Mets have a great chance to win today, with their ace in the field. The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs LHP, which is a good sign for the Mets, which comes to this game with their confidence back. I predict another struggle for Redding today, with the Mets being 5-1 in their last 6 games during a Game 4 of a series. I expect an easy win for the Mets today, so I'll take them on the runline in here
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Money Line
dime bet909 STL (+124)Bodog vs 910 CIN
Analysis: Normally, one of my rules in handicapping MLB is to not try to guess when a losing streak of a team is going to end. Today the scenario for the Cardinals is exactly this one: the team is coming from 7 defeats in a row and they are getting too far from the Wildcard, which would give them a place in the postseason. On the other side, the Reds are in a good phase right now, having won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. Today that's the spot we find for this game and I think the Cardinals are an excellent dog for tonight and with a great chance to win.
They will send Kyle Lohse, who has been doing a good season with a 13-6 and 3.80 ERA record, even though he had a better first part of the season than the second one. However this game has some special conditions for Lohse, whose last outing was exactly against the Reds and in that game there was an incident, which originated a suspension for Lohse of 5 games. The situation was considered to be unfair, as the Cards manager later told:
"The other guy threw two balls at guys' heads," La Russa said. "I don't know, I'm just shocked."
So, I expect Lohse to have an excellent performance today, having in account this will be a revenge game for him and he comes to this outing with 7 days of rest.
On the other side, the Reds will send Edinson Volquez, who has been doing a tremendous season with 16-5 and 3.22 ERA, however on his last 3 outings, he had very long outings and sooner or later, this will have its consequences. He had 4.82 ERA in those 3 starts and in each game, he threw 117, 119 and 121 pitches, with just 4 days off to rest between games. This very high number of pitches will make him struggle and already on his last outing against the D-Backs, he showed that, as he allowed 6 walks, something not usual for him.
For this game, I expect a good outing for Lohse, which will want to take revenge from what they did to him in the last game, while Volquez is due a letdown, so having in account the price of the Cardinals today, we have an excellent spot that we can't refuse, so take the Cards to win today.
double-dime bet908 FLA / 907 HOU Over 8 Bookmaker
Analysis: Unfortunately the hurricane Ike didn't just cause damages on the social life of thousands of people, but also in the sports life of the city and the Astros were one of the victims. The Astros were the hottest team in the whole MLB until September, 11th. But then the hurricane Ike prevented the Astros from playing until September, 14th and then all the momentum was gone. The team lost 4 consecutive games, with the offense being awful with .000, .037, .152 and .182 of Batting average. For this game, I expect the team to improve a little bit in the offense and I'll explain why later, with the Marlins at the same time being in a great run and fighting for the postseason via wildcard. Yesterday's game ended with a Marlins win by 14-2 and for today, I expect an high scoring affair once again, but much closer.
The Astros will send Alberto Arias, who on his debut for the Astros against the Pirates went scoreless in 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits. Even though he had a great debut, I expect today's game to be much different, as first of all Houston was on-fire at the time of his debut, with an huge momentum, which gave a lot of confidence to Arias, while right now the team is currently on a losing streak and lacking confidence. And to make things even worse, they will face a team with a great momentum right now, with 7 wins in a row and when this team has confidence, they are extremely dangerous in the offense, with them being 19-9 Over after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
On the other side, the Marlins will send the southpaw Scott Olsen and this may be the solution for the offense of the Astros. Olsen comes from a quality start against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings, but he has been terrible lately, as he allowed 4-6-4-4-3-5 runs before this quality outing. So I wouldn't be surprised if he has another letdown today. That's good news for the offense of the Astros, which has been horrible lately, but we need to remember that they faced Zambrano, Lilly, Volstad and Nolasco, which didn't help them at all and today against Olsen, their task will be much easier.
Houston is 14-2 Over after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and I expect a good response from both offenses today. The line is at 8 runs, so it is accessible, having in account the scenario of this game. Take the over in here. Double Dime Pick!
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB RunLine
dime bet905 NYM -1.5 (-125) Bookmaker vs 906 WAS
Analysis: This play has as a basic fundament an important psychological analysis, which combined to a technical analysis makes the Mets an excellent option for this game. Yesterday's win over the Nationals was extremely important in psychological terms, as we all remember the collapse of the Mets at the end of last season, where the Mets didn't hold a decent lead over the Phillies and ended up out of the postseason. The team entered a similar situation lately, as the team before yesterday's game had lost 3 of their last 4 games and curiously the Nationals were the responsible team for the two previous losses of the Mets and coincidence or not, it was also the Nats the team which was the main responsible for the Mets' last season collapse. If we add the fact that the Mets were coming from yesterday's game with just 2 and 0 runs scored in their previous two games, their scenario for yesterday's game wasn't great. However the Mets won yesterday by 9-7 and this win was one of the most important of the season for them and the team will now come more confident for today's game. This was the psychological analysis of the team.
The technical analysis also gives an edge for the Mets today. Johan Santana will start and this means the bullpen will have some rest today, which is great news for the team. The Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts and he has been awesome in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts.
On the other side, the Nationals will send Tim Redding, who comes from three outings where he struggled and had an ERA of 4.58. He has already beaten this season his record for most innings in a season and probably that's the reason why he has been struggling lately.
The Mets have a great chance to win today, with their ace in the field. The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs LHP, which is a good sign for the Mets, which comes to this game with their confidence back. I predict another struggle for Redding today, with the Mets being 5-1 in their last 6 games during a Game 4 of a series. I expect an easy win for the Mets today, so I'll take them on the runline in here
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Money Line
dime bet909 STL (+124)Bodog vs 910 CIN
Analysis: Normally, one of my rules in handicapping MLB is to not try to guess when a losing streak of a team is going to end. Today the scenario for the Cardinals is exactly this one: the team is coming from 7 defeats in a row and they are getting too far from the Wildcard, which would give them a place in the postseason. On the other side, the Reds are in a good phase right now, having won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. Today that's the spot we find for this game and I think the Cardinals are an excellent dog for tonight and with a great chance to win.
They will send Kyle Lohse, who has been doing a good season with a 13-6 and 3.80 ERA record, even though he had a better first part of the season than the second one. However this game has some special conditions for Lohse, whose last outing was exactly against the Reds and in that game there was an incident, which originated a suspension for Lohse of 5 games. The situation was considered to be unfair, as the Cards manager later told:
"The other guy threw two balls at guys' heads," La Russa said. "I don't know, I'm just shocked."
So, I expect Lohse to have an excellent performance today, having in account this will be a revenge game for him and he comes to this outing with 7 days of rest.
On the other side, the Reds will send Edinson Volquez, who has been doing a tremendous season with 16-5 and 3.22 ERA, however on his last 3 outings, he had very long outings and sooner or later, this will have its consequences. He had 4.82 ERA in those 3 starts and in each game, he threw 117, 119 and 121 pitches, with just 4 days off to rest between games. This very high number of pitches will make him struggle and already on his last outing against the D-Backs, he showed that, as he allowed 6 walks, something not usual for him.
For this game, I expect a good outing for Lohse, which will want to take revenge from what they did to him in the last game, while Volquez is due a letdown, so having in account the price of the Cardinals today, we have an excellent spot that we can't refuse, so take the Cards to win today.
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:05 PMTony George | MLB Total
dime bet920 NYY / 919 CWS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Under 8.5 Yankees and White Sox
Earlier this month these two played 3 games and all 3 went under. Look for a pitchers duel tonight with Mussina for NY and Vasquez for the White Sox, whose last 3 starts his ERA is under 2. The White Sox as a team are hitting right handers at .247 in the last 10 games, and the Yanks hitting only .250 in the same timeframe. Not a whopping average by any stretch. 2 Good Picthers, 2 teams struggling at the plate, in a tightly contested game. NY has went under 6 out of their last 8 games, the Sox are 6-2 on unders with road starts for Vasquez.
Play 1 Unit on the Under tonight, check out my season ending, post season package in bases guys, a Money Maker! Tony, Thanks for for business.
dime bet920 NYY / 919 CWS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Under 8.5 Yankees and White Sox
Earlier this month these two played 3 games and all 3 went under. Look for a pitchers duel tonight with Mussina for NY and Vasquez for the White Sox, whose last 3 starts his ERA is under 2. The White Sox as a team are hitting right handers at .247 in the last 10 games, and the Yanks hitting only .250 in the same timeframe. Not a whopping average by any stretch. 2 Good Picthers, 2 teams struggling at the plate, in a tightly contested game. NY has went under 6 out of their last 8 games, the Sox are 6-2 on unders with road starts for Vasquez.
Play 1 Unit on the Under tonight, check out my season ending, post season package in bases guys, a Money Maker! Tony, Thanks for for business.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) PERKINS, G vs. (R) SHIELDS, J
Play: Over (8 -110)
Posted on: September 18, 2008 @ 10:57:47 AM EDT
2* (Top Play) OVER the total in Tampa Bay vs Minnesota @ 7:10ET – Shields vs Perkins – This line has now dropped to an 8 in most books and that means it’s “go time” with this one. Even if the best you can do in this match-up is an 8.5 this is still a fantastic value! We are getting tremendous line value here because this pitching match-up has many people thinking “under” when the reality is that this one has “over” written all “over” it. If the Twins can pound out 14 hits in yesterday’s game when they had to face Cliff Lee of the Indians, do you really think they’re going to have any trouble against James Shields of the Rays? Granted, Shields has some very impressive numbers for the Rays this season, particularly at home. However, he’s facing a Twins team that has given him problems in his career and Minnesota will also certainly be comfortable hitting against Shields at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay because the Twins are use to hitting indoors since their home games are played at the Metrodome in Minneapolis! Note that the Twins are hitting a stellar .287 on turf this season. Shields has been hammered at a .347 clip in his three career starts against the Twins and that includes getting roughed up in April of this year. Also note that, despite solid overall stats at home this season, Shields has allowed 33 hits in his last 28 innings at Tropicana Field. With the Twins coming off of a 14-hit day at the plate Wednesday they will stay hot here.
Speaking of being hot at the plate, the Rays are on a rock solid run! They’ve averaged over five runs per game in going 5-3 in their last eight games and they won’t slow down versus a struggling Glen Perkins tonight. The Twins southpaw has allowed at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts! He’s been particularly struggling in his last four starts as he’s allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 32 hits in just 20.2 innings of work. Now he must deal with a red-hot Rays club that is oozing with confidence after taking two of three from the Red Sox. Perkins is 5-1 on the road this season but be careful when evaluating a pitcher based on his record only. The fact is that Perkins has been roughed up on the road this season and that’s why he has a 4.91 ERA and a .305 BAA in his starts away from home. This is the first season that Perkins was ever used as a starter at the MLB level and he appears to be wearing down. Particularly disturbing about this for Twins fans tonight is that the Minnesota bullpen has been struggling badly! The Minnesota relievers are responsible for 10 of the Twins last 16 losses and they were the responsible party again in yesterday’s 6-4 loss. The fact that this total has dropped to an 8 is just “gravy” as this one easily earned my top play rating based on the situational edges noted above. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a Top Play selection
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) PERKINS, G vs. (R) SHIELDS, J
Play: Over (8 -110)
Posted on: September 18, 2008 @ 10:57:47 AM EDT
2* (Top Play) OVER the total in Tampa Bay vs Minnesota @ 7:10ET – Shields vs Perkins – This line has now dropped to an 8 in most books and that means it’s “go time” with this one. Even if the best you can do in this match-up is an 8.5 this is still a fantastic value! We are getting tremendous line value here because this pitching match-up has many people thinking “under” when the reality is that this one has “over” written all “over” it. If the Twins can pound out 14 hits in yesterday’s game when they had to face Cliff Lee of the Indians, do you really think they’re going to have any trouble against James Shields of the Rays? Granted, Shields has some very impressive numbers for the Rays this season, particularly at home. However, he’s facing a Twins team that has given him problems in his career and Minnesota will also certainly be comfortable hitting against Shields at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay because the Twins are use to hitting indoors since their home games are played at the Metrodome in Minneapolis! Note that the Twins are hitting a stellar .287 on turf this season. Shields has been hammered at a .347 clip in his three career starts against the Twins and that includes getting roughed up in April of this year. Also note that, despite solid overall stats at home this season, Shields has allowed 33 hits in his last 28 innings at Tropicana Field. With the Twins coming off of a 14-hit day at the plate Wednesday they will stay hot here.
Speaking of being hot at the plate, the Rays are on a rock solid run! They’ve averaged over five runs per game in going 5-3 in their last eight games and they won’t slow down versus a struggling Glen Perkins tonight. The Twins southpaw has allowed at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts! He’s been particularly struggling in his last four starts as he’s allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 32 hits in just 20.2 innings of work. Now he must deal with a red-hot Rays club that is oozing with confidence after taking two of three from the Red Sox. Perkins is 5-1 on the road this season but be careful when evaluating a pitcher based on his record only. The fact is that Perkins has been roughed up on the road this season and that’s why he has a 4.91 ERA and a .305 BAA in his starts away from home. This is the first season that Perkins was ever used as a starter at the MLB level and he appears to be wearing down. Particularly disturbing about this for Twins fans tonight is that the Minnesota bullpen has been struggling badly! The Minnesota relievers are responsible for 10 of the Twins last 16 losses and they were the responsible party again in yesterday’s 6-4 loss. The fact that this total has dropped to an 8 is just “gravy” as this one easily earned my top play rating based on the situational edges noted above. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a Top Play selection
