3Daily Winners
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins (NFL)
Play: Point Spread: 1/-108 New Orleans Saints
Washington is looking like they are going thru growing pains after playoff season, starting over with new head coach. Today we look to Play Against home teams after one or more consecutive losses in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games. This system is sensational 23-4 ATS, 85.2 percent since 1998. Play New Orleans.
Cappers Watchdog (5-2)
Best Play - Indianpolis -1.5
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New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins (NFL)
Play: Point Spread: 1/-108 New Orleans Saints
Washington is looking like they are going thru growing pains after playoff season, starting over with new head coach. Today we look to Play Against home teams after one or more consecutive losses in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games. This system is sensational 23-4 ATS, 85.2 percent since 1998. Play New Orleans.
Cappers Watchdog (5-2)
Best Play - Indianpolis -1.5
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive-Sunday
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:08 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 5* Buffalo Bills +5.5
Analysis:
The Buffalo Bills travel to Jax to face the hometown Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. This contest features two teams that had surprising results in the opening week of the NFL season. One had good news and the other suffered a surprising 17 to 10 loss and that loss was handed to the host of this game by the Tennessee Titans.
The Bills opened their 2008 NFL campaign by defeating the Seattle Seahawks handily 34 to 10 using solid coaching, defense and outstanding special teams play. The offense also played well rushing the ball 29 times for 106 yards and 2nd year QB Edwards was 21 for 30 with 232 yards passing on the day.
Buffalo’s big win triggers a nice technical situation that tells us to Play On teams coming off a SU Win of 21 or more points in Week One, these teams have posted a record of 22-12 ATS! We also know that road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better from Week One than the home teams are a solid 12-5 ATS in Week Two.
The Jaguars were only able to rush the ball for 33 yards against the Titans in Week One. That is a huge problem for this team as they do not have the passing game to overcome a weak rushing attack. Their new wide receivers Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson have not provided the outside threat that the Jags had hoped for. Although Porter’s problem comes from an injury (hamstring) and he should rebound from that but maybe not in time to make a difference in this contest.
The Jags offensive line has been hit especially hard by the injury bug with three more added to that list after the Tennessee game. This does not include top backup Richard Collier’s absence due to gunshot wounds. The passing game of the Jags has also been affected as Jag’s QB David Garrard was sacked seven times in last week’s game.
For the Jaguars to be successful they must be able to run the football. This game presents them with two problems and the first being a solid Buffalo defensive unit and secondly their injuries suffered on the offensive line. There are just too many issues in the trenches to back a team that is giving up almost a TD to a team that is playing with as much confidence and momentum as the Bills.
Both teams’ performances last week trigger technical situations that solidify our selection on the Bills. We see that the League is 12-1-2 ATS (8.2 ppg) as a dog when facing a team with no wins after week one of the season. The League is 13-3-2 ATS (6.1 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The League is 3-20-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) as a favorite versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss on the road.
We also have two Power Systems that tell us that In Game 2, play AGAINST a team with a TOTAL of 37+ points off a SU loss averaging less than 3 yards per carry (not as an underdog of more than 7 points) in its last game 18-0 ATS since 1996. In Weeks 2-5, play AGAINST a winless team with a TOTAL over 32 points off an ATS loss with 35 rushing yards or less and allowing less than 190 rushing yards in its last game 15-0 ATS since 1996.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Bills have a 1.8 point advantage in today’s game. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) has the Buffalo Bills with a 0.97 point edge in today’s matchup. The combination of these factors along with strong fundamental and situational support we will make the Buffalo Bills our 5* NFL Game of the Week Selection!
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* BUFFALO BILLS +5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:37 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 4* New Orleans Saints -Pk
Analysis:
The Saints leave the Big Easy to pay a visit to our nation’s capital to face the host Redskins. The Saints enter this contest off a huge divisional win at home last week against the Buccaneers while the Skins were in New York for the season opener against the Giants on Thursday September 4th.
The Skins were not as fortunate as the Saints they lost to the Giants 16 to 7 and the score is not an indication of how bad the Skins played on offense. In fact they didn’t score their lone touchdown until the fourth quarter only had 13 ticks left on the clock.
Washington’s QB Jason Campbell has struggled with new head coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense. The west coast scheme requires rhythm and timing which is obviously missing from this offense. The Skins were outgained 354 to 209 by the Giants and Campbell was only 15 of 27 for 125 yards passing on the night.
When NFL teams struggle on the road in their previous game they do not bounce back well as this technical situation explains; The League is 5-23-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
On the defensive front the Skins are banged up across their line and we believe their secondary is overrated. This is not a good sign for the Skins as Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns against a much better Bucs defensive unit last week. Both he and the Saints appeared to be in mid-season form and are much more explosive than the Skins.
The fact that Saints QB Drew Brees had 300+ yards passing last week triggers a solid winning technical situation that states; The League is 20-8-2 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they had at least 300 yards passing. If our “Play On” team (Saints) is on the road the record is 17-4-2 ATS.
For the Saints Drew Brees has been outstanding over his last thirteen games throwing for an average of 295 yards per game with 69% completions and a 30 to 10 TD to INT ratio. That includes last week where Brees averaged 10.2 yards per pass play and the Saints averaged 7.6 yards per play on offense against a solid Buc’s “D”.
New Orleans has one glaring weakness and that is in their defensive secondary where they lack the necessary components to shut down their opponents passing game. The positive in that for this week’s match up is we don’t believe Jason Campbell has the grasp of the new offense or the ability to make the Saints pay for their inadequacies.
To defeat this Saints team you must either be able to shutdown their offense which their will be few with that ability or you must be able to score with them when your offense takes the field. Neither of those options are available to this Skins team, this bureau believes the Skins defense has little chance of stopping Brees and Company and we certainly don’t believe they could win a shootout with the Saints.
Data base research has uncovered a solid technical situation that backs our position on the Saints in today’s contest. It tells us to PLAY ON Favorites or Underdogs of less than 10 points in Week Two or Three coming off a home game (not MNF) and a fumble differential last season of less than zero, 104-37 ATS. Finally we have a technical situation that tells us to “Play On” teams in Week Two of the NFL season with a higher time of possession than their current opponent and their opponent had TYF <=350 and RYF <=125 in their last game, 72-22 ATS.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Saints have a 4.4 point advantage over the Skins in today’s match up. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) shows that the Saints are 5.6 points better than the Skins. Combine all the factors and we will back the Saints here as they move to 2-0 both SU and ATS on the season!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -Pk
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:52 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Analysis:
Tampa returns home after suffering a tough loss in the Big Easy last week to the hometown Saints 24 to 20. The Falcons were busy disposing of an awful Detroit Lions team in Atlanta to capture a Week One victory.
The Falcons face a much tougher task this week as they head south to Cigar City to play the Buccaneers. Falcon’s rookie QB Matt Ryan will be facing the Tampa Two which is otherwise known as the two-deep, zone blitz defensive scheme which the Tampa “D” has mastered.
Atlanta does have two outstanding running backs in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood who should be able to help take some of the pressure off of Matt Ryan in this game. Turner has averaged 5.9 yards per rush on 250 career carries which includes his 220 yard and 10.0 yard per carry performance last week.
Norwood has averaged better than 6.0 yards per carry on 216 carries he also performed well in their opener against the Lions putting up 93 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. With Norwood and Turners rushing performances against the Lions QB Ryan didn’t have to put the ball in their air much in that game. Ryan averaged 11.1 yards per pass play against Detroit but he only put the ball in the air 14 times. He has an average of 5.4 yards per pass play if we include what he did in the preseason.
We expect Ryan and his Falcon teammates to return to the real world on Sunday in Cigar City . The Buccaneers have the defensive prowess to bring their rushing attack back down to earth which in turn should have an impact on Ryan’s ability to throw the football.
The Bucs are not without issues, they lost starting QB Jeff Garcia to injury so Brian Griese will get the start on Sunday. Griese is familiar with Gruden’s system having played two seasons’ here back in 2004 and 2005. Griese averaged a solid 6.4 yards per play on offense during that time. His career numbers are also decent with 6.1 yards per play average.
The Bucs should also be able to rush the football against this Falcons defensive unit. Bucs running back Graham had 91 yards on just 10 carries against the Saints on Sunday in New Orleans . He should find the going much easier today as Griese will be able to spread the ball around.
The Falcons will field possibly one of the worst passing defenses in the league on Sunday. Griese, Graham and company should be able to put some points on the board against a Falcons defense that has some major issues.
On the technical front we know that the Bucs are 9-2 ATS off a division loss. The Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS as a favorite off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week. Tampa Coach John Gruden is 25-12-2 ATS as a favorite after a SU loss and 15-7-2 ATS in that role as the Coach of Tampa. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS off scoring 28 or more points in their last game and 1-6 ATS off a SU/ATS win. The Falcons are 2-11 ATS as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.
Data base research has uncovered a solid Power System that tells us to Play AGAINST a road underdog of 7+ points one game over .500% off an underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent off scoring less than 38 points in its last game, 12-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 15.3 points per game!
Our (TPI) Team Performance Ratings Index has Tampa with a 10.3 points per game advantage over the Falcons in today’s contest. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) is projecting a little lower number than if Jeff Garcia was getting the start on Sunday instead of Brian Griese but the edge is still more than enough for us to lay the chalk with the host as the PPI sees it the Bucs have a 9.6 point edge in this game.
Combine all the factors and we have a solid 4* Selection on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the get the win and cover on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -7
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday September 14 (NBC TV)
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:35 EST September 13
Grade / Prediction: 3* Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Analysis:
The Steelers take to the highway to face the Cleveland Browns on the NFL’s featured Sunday Game of the Week on NBC. The Steelers enter this contest off a big win in their opener while the Browns were upended by the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week One of the season.
Pittsburgh hosted the Houston Texans last Sunday to start their 2008 campaign and did so in fine fashion as they defeated the Texans 38 to 17. The Steelers rushing attack rushed the ball 39 times for 183 yards against the Texans defense. This allowed QB Ben Roethlisberger to attempt only 14 passes and completing 13 of them for an average of 7.6 yards per pass play.
The Steelers have dominated this series of late going 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS including 4-0-1 ATS in Cleveland . Pittsburgh has used solid defense along with a good rushing attack to accomplish this feat and we look for a repeat performance from both of them tonight.
Steelers RB Willie Parker and rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall make a powerful combo in the Steelers backfield while the Men of Steel will once again field a solid defensive unit in 2008.
Based on Game One’s performance the Cleveland Browns overachieved last season and definitely wont sneak up on anyone this season. Last season during the Brown’s run they were still unable to compete with the division’s best team and now Pittsburgh is healthy and ready to get off to a fast start in 08.
Cleveland’s recent additions of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers have not done much to improve the Brown’s defensive line in Week One and you have to wonder if they will be able to compete in the trenches of this game against a team known for winning those battles.
Technical support for our selection: Pittsburgh is 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings with the Browns overall. The Steelers are 19-6-3 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 15-5-4 ATS as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 14-4-2 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
POWER ANGLE: The Steelers are 12-0 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
POWER SYSTEM: Play AGAINST a home underdog with a TOTAL of 44+ points, 9-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 10.9 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:43 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 4* Atlanta / Tampa Bay Under 38
Analysis:
Atlanta heads south to face the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday afternoon in Tampa . The Falcons are coming in off a surprising performance last Sunday against the Detroit Lions while the Bucs ran into a hurricane motivated Saints team and lost in the Big Easy.
Tampa completely overwhelmed this Falcons team last season defeating them by a combined score of 68 to 10. The average yards per game were also in the Bucs favor by almost 100 yards per game with a 295 to 199 edge.
The Falcons have a new look this season with the third overall pick in last year’s draft Matt Ryan from Boston College under center. His season started off with a 62-yard touchdown pass to Michael ******* on his first attempt. The Falcons went on to defeat the Lions 34 to 21.
The key for Atlanta was their running game as they rushed for 318 yards against the Lions porous defense last week. Atlanta running back Turner had 220 yards rushing averaging 10 yards per carry. Their rushing attack was so successful that rookie QB Matt Ryan only attempted 13 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown.
Tampa on the other hand had to face a highly motivated New Orleans Saints team in the Big Easy. They are a much better team than who the Falcons faced in their first contest. Even though the Bucs lost they were only outgained by 86 yards on the day.
The Bucs will have a new starter under center on Sunday as Brian Griese gets the call because Jeff Garcia is out with an injury. We expect the Bucs to attempt to rush the football just as the Falcons will and this should lead to a low scoring affair.
The Bucs allowed fewer yards than any other NFC team last season and were one of three teams to hold opponents under 300 yards per game. Although they gave up a few big plays last week the Saints have many more playmakers than do the Falcons.
Tampa is 26-11 Under when installed as a home favorite and they are 7-1 Under during the month of September. The Bucs are also 13-3 Under their last 16 games overall. For the last three seasons the Falcons have gone Under in game two each year. They are also 10-3 Under their last 13 games overall and 6-2 Under their last 8. We also note that only eleven teams have rushed for 300 or more yards in the last decade and following their running wild they have gone a perfect 4-0 under in their next contest if installed as an underdog. Finally we know that game two teams who scored at least thirty-four in their last game are 42-19-3 Under and 8-1 Under the last nine games.
The combination of fundamental and technical indicators for this contest makes this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* ATLANTA / TAMPA BAY UNDER 38
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:43 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Cincinnati UNDER 37.5
Analysis:
The Titans head to the Queen City to face the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. Last season the Titans were installed as a 1.5 point road favorite in this contest and had their lunch handed to them in a 35 to 6 thumping by the Bengals.
Cincinnati enters this weeks contest off a road loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in Week One. They were outplayed in almost every facet of the game including being outgained 358 to 154 in total yards. Bengals QB Carson Palmer only had 99 yards passing and one interception.
Tennessee on the other hand was able to defeat the Jags at home to open the season. They outrushed the Jaguars 137 to 33 on 4.3 yards per carry while the Jags only managed 1.9 yards per rush on the day.
The Titans defense carried the day as they had seven sacks, forced three turnovers and held the Jaguars to 189 total yards which was good for third-fewest in the NFL in Week One. Cincinnati is all too familiar with stingy defense after suffering a 17-10 loss to Baltimore Sunday. The Bengals, who ranked in the top 10 in total offense each of the last two seasons, were held to eight first downs and an NFL-low 154 total yards.
Titans QB Vince Young sidelined by a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee, 14-year veteran Kerry Collins is expected to start on Sunday. Young struggled in his season opener, completing 12 of 22 passes for 110 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
On the technical front we see that the Titans are 8-1 Under after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, 9-2 Under in their first road game of the season their last 11 and 6-1 Under their last 7 before facing the Texans. Cincinnati is 6-2 Under during game two of the season their last 8, 8-2 Under their last 10 off a SU favorite loss and 11-3 Under their last 14 before facing a non-conference opponent. This series has seen the Under cash in five of the last six meetings overall.
The combination of both teams struggling on offense and the Titans always stingy “D” we expect another “Under” to cash in this series on Sunday afternoon in the Queen City.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* TENNESSEE / CINCINNATI UNDER 37.5
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:30 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 2* New York Giants -8
Analysis:
We used the Eagles last week as a FOUR-Star selection against this Rams team and won easily. We see no reason to back-off this “Play Against” team even though they will be at home for their opener in this contest.
The Rams only managed 8 first downs on offense and allowed 28 first downs to the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams defense gave up 522 yards to the Eagles offense last Sunday while their own offense could only manage 166 yards with just over 50 of those coming on their final drive of the game.
Just as we expected the Rams RB Steven Jackson’s holdout and hamstring issues caused him to be a non-factor in Sunday’s game with only 40 yards rushing with a 2.9 yards per carry average. Rams QB Bulger didn’t help matters with 14 of 26 for 130 yards passing on the day. The Rams are not very good upfront and we expect a similar type performance as they face a good Giants defense on Sunday.
The Giants had little trouble with their Week One opponent the Washington Redskins. The New York defense only allowed 11 first downs and a total of 209 yards of offense. In fact they held the Skins scoreless until the final seconds of the game.
New York’s offense had 32 rushes for 154 yards while Eli was 19 of 35 for 200 yards passing against the Skins. Not huge numbers but they were efficient and should have no trouble with a Rams defense that is over worked because of their offensive shortcomings.
On the technical front we see that ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 15-6 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. The NEW YORK GIANTS are 20-2 ATS on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Our Team Performance Ratings show the New York Giants with a 13.2 advantage over the St. Louis Rams in Sunday’s matchup. Even with the line movement from the 6 where it opened to the current line of 8 we still have decent line value based upon our TPR Index and our PPR Index.
Finally we have an NFL System that tells us:
In Week 2, play AGAINST a non-division team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) with a TOTAL over 37 points off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and before a road contest in its next game. 10-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 17.1 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* NEW YORK GIANTS 26 St. Louis Rams 12
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Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:08 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 5* Buffalo Bills +5.5
Analysis:
The Buffalo Bills travel to Jax to face the hometown Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. This contest features two teams that had surprising results in the opening week of the NFL season. One had good news and the other suffered a surprising 17 to 10 loss and that loss was handed to the host of this game by the Tennessee Titans.
The Bills opened their 2008 NFL campaign by defeating the Seattle Seahawks handily 34 to 10 using solid coaching, defense and outstanding special teams play. The offense also played well rushing the ball 29 times for 106 yards and 2nd year QB Edwards was 21 for 30 with 232 yards passing on the day.
Buffalo’s big win triggers a nice technical situation that tells us to Play On teams coming off a SU Win of 21 or more points in Week One, these teams have posted a record of 22-12 ATS! We also know that road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better from Week One than the home teams are a solid 12-5 ATS in Week Two.
The Jaguars were only able to rush the ball for 33 yards against the Titans in Week One. That is a huge problem for this team as they do not have the passing game to overcome a weak rushing attack. Their new wide receivers Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson have not provided the outside threat that the Jags had hoped for. Although Porter’s problem comes from an injury (hamstring) and he should rebound from that but maybe not in time to make a difference in this contest.
The Jags offensive line has been hit especially hard by the injury bug with three more added to that list after the Tennessee game. This does not include top backup Richard Collier’s absence due to gunshot wounds. The passing game of the Jags has also been affected as Jag’s QB David Garrard was sacked seven times in last week’s game.
For the Jaguars to be successful they must be able to run the football. This game presents them with two problems and the first being a solid Buffalo defensive unit and secondly their injuries suffered on the offensive line. There are just too many issues in the trenches to back a team that is giving up almost a TD to a team that is playing with as much confidence and momentum as the Bills.
Both teams’ performances last week trigger technical situations that solidify our selection on the Bills. We see that the League is 12-1-2 ATS (8.2 ppg) as a dog when facing a team with no wins after week one of the season. The League is 13-3-2 ATS (6.1 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The League is 3-20-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) as a favorite versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss on the road.
We also have two Power Systems that tell us that In Game 2, play AGAINST a team with a TOTAL of 37+ points off a SU loss averaging less than 3 yards per carry (not as an underdog of more than 7 points) in its last game 18-0 ATS since 1996. In Weeks 2-5, play AGAINST a winless team with a TOTAL over 32 points off an ATS loss with 35 rushing yards or less and allowing less than 190 rushing yards in its last game 15-0 ATS since 1996.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Bills have a 1.8 point advantage in today’s game. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) has the Buffalo Bills with a 0.97 point edge in today’s matchup. The combination of these factors along with strong fundamental and situational support we will make the Buffalo Bills our 5* NFL Game of the Week Selection!
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* BUFFALO BILLS +5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:37 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 4* New Orleans Saints -Pk
Analysis:
The Saints leave the Big Easy to pay a visit to our nation’s capital to face the host Redskins. The Saints enter this contest off a huge divisional win at home last week against the Buccaneers while the Skins were in New York for the season opener against the Giants on Thursday September 4th.
The Skins were not as fortunate as the Saints they lost to the Giants 16 to 7 and the score is not an indication of how bad the Skins played on offense. In fact they didn’t score their lone touchdown until the fourth quarter only had 13 ticks left on the clock.
Washington’s QB Jason Campbell has struggled with new head coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense. The west coast scheme requires rhythm and timing which is obviously missing from this offense. The Skins were outgained 354 to 209 by the Giants and Campbell was only 15 of 27 for 125 yards passing on the night.
When NFL teams struggle on the road in their previous game they do not bounce back well as this technical situation explains; The League is 5-23-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
On the defensive front the Skins are banged up across their line and we believe their secondary is overrated. This is not a good sign for the Skins as Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns against a much better Bucs defensive unit last week. Both he and the Saints appeared to be in mid-season form and are much more explosive than the Skins.
The fact that Saints QB Drew Brees had 300+ yards passing last week triggers a solid winning technical situation that states; The League is 20-8-2 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they had at least 300 yards passing. If our “Play On” team (Saints) is on the road the record is 17-4-2 ATS.
For the Saints Drew Brees has been outstanding over his last thirteen games throwing for an average of 295 yards per game with 69% completions and a 30 to 10 TD to INT ratio. That includes last week where Brees averaged 10.2 yards per pass play and the Saints averaged 7.6 yards per play on offense against a solid Buc’s “D”.
New Orleans has one glaring weakness and that is in their defensive secondary where they lack the necessary components to shut down their opponents passing game. The positive in that for this week’s match up is we don’t believe Jason Campbell has the grasp of the new offense or the ability to make the Saints pay for their inadequacies.
To defeat this Saints team you must either be able to shutdown their offense which their will be few with that ability or you must be able to score with them when your offense takes the field. Neither of those options are available to this Skins team, this bureau believes the Skins defense has little chance of stopping Brees and Company and we certainly don’t believe they could win a shootout with the Saints.
Data base research has uncovered a solid technical situation that backs our position on the Saints in today’s contest. It tells us to PLAY ON Favorites or Underdogs of less than 10 points in Week Two or Three coming off a home game (not MNF) and a fumble differential last season of less than zero, 104-37 ATS. Finally we have a technical situation that tells us to “Play On” teams in Week Two of the NFL season with a higher time of possession than their current opponent and their opponent had TYF <=350 and RYF <=125 in their last game, 72-22 ATS.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Saints have a 4.4 point advantage over the Skins in today’s match up. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) shows that the Saints are 5.6 points better than the Skins. Combine all the factors and we will back the Saints here as they move to 2-0 both SU and ATS on the season!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -Pk
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:52 EST September 12
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Analysis:
Tampa returns home after suffering a tough loss in the Big Easy last week to the hometown Saints 24 to 20. The Falcons were busy disposing of an awful Detroit Lions team in Atlanta to capture a Week One victory.
The Falcons face a much tougher task this week as they head south to Cigar City to play the Buccaneers. Falcon’s rookie QB Matt Ryan will be facing the Tampa Two which is otherwise known as the two-deep, zone blitz defensive scheme which the Tampa “D” has mastered.
Atlanta does have two outstanding running backs in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood who should be able to help take some of the pressure off of Matt Ryan in this game. Turner has averaged 5.9 yards per rush on 250 career carries which includes his 220 yard and 10.0 yard per carry performance last week.
Norwood has averaged better than 6.0 yards per carry on 216 carries he also performed well in their opener against the Lions putting up 93 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. With Norwood and Turners rushing performances against the Lions QB Ryan didn’t have to put the ball in their air much in that game. Ryan averaged 11.1 yards per pass play against Detroit but he only put the ball in the air 14 times. He has an average of 5.4 yards per pass play if we include what he did in the preseason.
We expect Ryan and his Falcon teammates to return to the real world on Sunday in Cigar City . The Buccaneers have the defensive prowess to bring their rushing attack back down to earth which in turn should have an impact on Ryan’s ability to throw the football.
The Bucs are not without issues, they lost starting QB Jeff Garcia to injury so Brian Griese will get the start on Sunday. Griese is familiar with Gruden’s system having played two seasons’ here back in 2004 and 2005. Griese averaged a solid 6.4 yards per play on offense during that time. His career numbers are also decent with 6.1 yards per play average.
The Bucs should also be able to rush the football against this Falcons defensive unit. Bucs running back Graham had 91 yards on just 10 carries against the Saints on Sunday in New Orleans . He should find the going much easier today as Griese will be able to spread the ball around.
The Falcons will field possibly one of the worst passing defenses in the league on Sunday. Griese, Graham and company should be able to put some points on the board against a Falcons defense that has some major issues.
On the technical front we know that the Bucs are 9-2 ATS off a division loss. The Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS as a favorite off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week. Tampa Coach John Gruden is 25-12-2 ATS as a favorite after a SU loss and 15-7-2 ATS in that role as the Coach of Tampa. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS off scoring 28 or more points in their last game and 1-6 ATS off a SU/ATS win. The Falcons are 2-11 ATS as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.
Data base research has uncovered a solid Power System that tells us to Play AGAINST a road underdog of 7+ points one game over .500% off an underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent off scoring less than 38 points in its last game, 12-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 15.3 points per game!
Our (TPI) Team Performance Ratings Index has Tampa with a 10.3 points per game advantage over the Falcons in today’s contest. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) is projecting a little lower number than if Jeff Garcia was getting the start on Sunday instead of Brian Griese but the edge is still more than enough for us to lay the chalk with the host as the PPI sees it the Bucs have a 9.6 point edge in this game.
Combine all the factors and we have a solid 4* Selection on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the get the win and cover on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -7
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday September 14 (NBC TV)
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:35 EST September 13
Grade / Prediction: 3* Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Analysis:
The Steelers take to the highway to face the Cleveland Browns on the NFL’s featured Sunday Game of the Week on NBC. The Steelers enter this contest off a big win in their opener while the Browns were upended by the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week One of the season.
Pittsburgh hosted the Houston Texans last Sunday to start their 2008 campaign and did so in fine fashion as they defeated the Texans 38 to 17. The Steelers rushing attack rushed the ball 39 times for 183 yards against the Texans defense. This allowed QB Ben Roethlisberger to attempt only 14 passes and completing 13 of them for an average of 7.6 yards per pass play.
The Steelers have dominated this series of late going 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS including 4-0-1 ATS in Cleveland . Pittsburgh has used solid defense along with a good rushing attack to accomplish this feat and we look for a repeat performance from both of them tonight.
Steelers RB Willie Parker and rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall make a powerful combo in the Steelers backfield while the Men of Steel will once again field a solid defensive unit in 2008.
Based on Game One’s performance the Cleveland Browns overachieved last season and definitely wont sneak up on anyone this season. Last season during the Brown’s run they were still unable to compete with the division’s best team and now Pittsburgh is healthy and ready to get off to a fast start in 08.
Cleveland’s recent additions of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers have not done much to improve the Brown’s defensive line in Week One and you have to wonder if they will be able to compete in the trenches of this game against a team known for winning those battles.
Technical support for our selection: Pittsburgh is 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings with the Browns overall. The Steelers are 19-6-3 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 15-5-4 ATS as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 14-4-2 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
POWER ANGLE: The Steelers are 12-0 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
POWER SYSTEM: Play AGAINST a home underdog with a TOTAL of 44+ points, 9-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 10.9 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:43 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 4* Atlanta / Tampa Bay Under 38
Analysis:
Atlanta heads south to face the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday afternoon in Tampa . The Falcons are coming in off a surprising performance last Sunday against the Detroit Lions while the Bucs ran into a hurricane motivated Saints team and lost in the Big Easy.
Tampa completely overwhelmed this Falcons team last season defeating them by a combined score of 68 to 10. The average yards per game were also in the Bucs favor by almost 100 yards per game with a 295 to 199 edge.
The Falcons have a new look this season with the third overall pick in last year’s draft Matt Ryan from Boston College under center. His season started off with a 62-yard touchdown pass to Michael ******* on his first attempt. The Falcons went on to defeat the Lions 34 to 21.
The key for Atlanta was their running game as they rushed for 318 yards against the Lions porous defense last week. Atlanta running back Turner had 220 yards rushing averaging 10 yards per carry. Their rushing attack was so successful that rookie QB Matt Ryan only attempted 13 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown.
Tampa on the other hand had to face a highly motivated New Orleans Saints team in the Big Easy. They are a much better team than who the Falcons faced in their first contest. Even though the Bucs lost they were only outgained by 86 yards on the day.
The Bucs will have a new starter under center on Sunday as Brian Griese gets the call because Jeff Garcia is out with an injury. We expect the Bucs to attempt to rush the football just as the Falcons will and this should lead to a low scoring affair.
The Bucs allowed fewer yards than any other NFC team last season and were one of three teams to hold opponents under 300 yards per game. Although they gave up a few big plays last week the Saints have many more playmakers than do the Falcons.
Tampa is 26-11 Under when installed as a home favorite and they are 7-1 Under during the month of September. The Bucs are also 13-3 Under their last 16 games overall. For the last three seasons the Falcons have gone Under in game two each year. They are also 10-3 Under their last 13 games overall and 6-2 Under their last 8. We also note that only eleven teams have rushed for 300 or more yards in the last decade and following their running wild they have gone a perfect 4-0 under in their next contest if installed as an underdog. Finally we know that game two teams who scored at least thirty-four in their last game are 42-19-3 Under and 8-1 Under the last nine games.
The combination of fundamental and technical indicators for this contest makes this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* ATLANTA / TAMPA BAY UNDER 38
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:43 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Cincinnati UNDER 37.5
Analysis:
The Titans head to the Queen City to face the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. Last season the Titans were installed as a 1.5 point road favorite in this contest and had their lunch handed to them in a 35 to 6 thumping by the Bengals.
Cincinnati enters this weeks contest off a road loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in Week One. They were outplayed in almost every facet of the game including being outgained 358 to 154 in total yards. Bengals QB Carson Palmer only had 99 yards passing and one interception.
Tennessee on the other hand was able to defeat the Jags at home to open the season. They outrushed the Jaguars 137 to 33 on 4.3 yards per carry while the Jags only managed 1.9 yards per rush on the day.
The Titans defense carried the day as they had seven sacks, forced three turnovers and held the Jaguars to 189 total yards which was good for third-fewest in the NFL in Week One. Cincinnati is all too familiar with stingy defense after suffering a 17-10 loss to Baltimore Sunday. The Bengals, who ranked in the top 10 in total offense each of the last two seasons, were held to eight first downs and an NFL-low 154 total yards.
Titans QB Vince Young sidelined by a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee, 14-year veteran Kerry Collins is expected to start on Sunday. Young struggled in his season opener, completing 12 of 22 passes for 110 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
On the technical front we see that the Titans are 8-1 Under after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, 9-2 Under in their first road game of the season their last 11 and 6-1 Under their last 7 before facing the Texans. Cincinnati is 6-2 Under during game two of the season their last 8, 8-2 Under their last 10 off a SU favorite loss and 11-3 Under their last 14 before facing a non-conference opponent. This series has seen the Under cash in five of the last six meetings overall.
The combination of both teams struggling on offense and the Titans always stingy “D” we expect another “Under” to cash in this series on Sunday afternoon in the Queen City.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* TENNESSEE / CINCINNATI UNDER 37.5
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 14
Game: New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:30 EST September 11
Grade / Prediction: 2* New York Giants -8
Analysis:
We used the Eagles last week as a FOUR-Star selection against this Rams team and won easily. We see no reason to back-off this “Play Against” team even though they will be at home for their opener in this contest.
The Rams only managed 8 first downs on offense and allowed 28 first downs to the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams defense gave up 522 yards to the Eagles offense last Sunday while their own offense could only manage 166 yards with just over 50 of those coming on their final drive of the game.
Just as we expected the Rams RB Steven Jackson’s holdout and hamstring issues caused him to be a non-factor in Sunday’s game with only 40 yards rushing with a 2.9 yards per carry average. Rams QB Bulger didn’t help matters with 14 of 26 for 130 yards passing on the day. The Rams are not very good upfront and we expect a similar type performance as they face a good Giants defense on Sunday.
The Giants had little trouble with their Week One opponent the Washington Redskins. The New York defense only allowed 11 first downs and a total of 209 yards of offense. In fact they held the Skins scoreless until the final seconds of the game.
New York’s offense had 32 rushes for 154 yards while Eli was 19 of 35 for 200 yards passing against the Skins. Not huge numbers but they were efficient and should have no trouble with a Rams defense that is over worked because of their offensive shortcomings.
On the technical front we see that ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 15-6 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. The NEW YORK GIANTS are 20-2 ATS on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Our Team Performance Ratings show the New York Giants with a 13.2 advantage over the St. Louis Rams in Sunday’s matchup. Even with the line movement from the 6 where it opened to the current line of 8 we still have decent line value based upon our TPR Index and our PPR Index.
Finally we have an NFL System that tells us:
In Week 2, play AGAINST a non-division team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) with a TOTAL over 37 points off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and before a road contest in its next game. 10-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 17.1 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* NEW YORK GIANTS 26 St. Louis Rams 12
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Panthers - 3 over Bears Top Play
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Panthers - 3 over Bears Top Play
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Brandon Lang's Free Pick
Brandon Lang's free pick is:
Pittsburgh and the Over (Teaser)
Free picks are NOT rated. They are not even considered worthy of being 1 dime releases. They are complimentary selections - picks I want to win and try to win, but ultimately picks that are not quite good enough to be premium plays
Brandon Lang's free pick is:
Pittsburgh and the Over (Teaser)
Free picks are NOT rated. They are not even considered worthy of being 1 dime releases. They are complimentary selections - picks I want to win and try to win, but ultimately picks that are not quite good enough to be premium plays
