Service Plays Sunday 9/14/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

4* Carolina 31-17
3* Houston 28-13
2* Tampa 27-6
2* New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3* Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WILD BILL

Saints pk (5 units)
Lions +3 (5 units)
Over 45 Lions-Packers (5 units)
Jacksonville -6 (5 units)
Indy -1 (5 units)
Tampa -8 (5 units)
Miami +7 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -5 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego -1 (5 units)
Eagles +7 (5 units)
Under 47 Eagles-Cowboys (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Armvin Sports Nfl

9/14/2008 Indianapolis -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY by 14 over Oakland
TAMPA BAY by 20 over Atlanta
OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Carolina game



SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
KANSAS CITY 24 - Oakland 10—Third start overall and first on the
road for JaMarcus Russell, who will experience the unique “pleasure” of trying to direct his team amid the cacophany of arguably the NFL’s noisiest stadium. Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; check status) finally beginning to face opposing QBs with even less experience than his own. Raider RBs (Fargas, McFadden, Bush) imposing, but Oakland OL and WRs not. Will count on improving young Chiefs’ defense and K.C.’s crowd to fluster Russell into mistakes. (07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1) (07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)
(07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-44-2)


TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 6—A rookie QB (Matt Ryan) on a rebuilding
team (Atlanta) with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) is NOT a good
combination for facing the most-developed of the usually-confusing, two-deep, zone-blitz defenses now simply dubbed the “Tampa Two” scheme throughout football. Especially with that combination on the road, and especially when the Bucs dominated the Falcs LY (before Michael Turner, however), winning twice by a total score of 68-10! T.B. offense perfectly average (worse than average if Jeff Garcia & Joey Galloway not in tune), but stop unit expert at producing opponent mistakes.
(07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2) (07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2) (07-Tampa Bay -3 31-7, TAMPA BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 17-12)



OVER THE TOTAL Chicago 27 - CAROLINA 26—Kudos to Steve
Smith-less Carolina and to Jake Delhomme (and his surgeons) for their lastplay victory at San Diego. However, the running of rookie Matt Forté (123 yards) and the nearly-mistake-Bonus Play of Kyle Orton (13 of 21, no ints.) was a big boost not only to the Bear offense, but to the Chicago defense, which was both injured and overworked LY. Must be impressed with Lovie’s depth on the DL especially with DTs Harris and Dvoracek both healthy, plus impressive thirdround pick Marcus Harrison of Arkansas. With Jake back for Panthers, however, will look “over” again in Charlotte.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT FERRALL

Washington PK over Saints<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O></O>
<O> </O>
Detroit +3 from Packers at Ford Field<O></O>
<O> </O>
Carolina -3 to Chicago<O></O>
<O> </O>
RAMS +9 from Giants in St.Louis--upset with the number<O></O>
<O> </O><O> </O>
Tampa -8 to Atlanta--don't be suckered by the Falcons--they still are going to blow<O></O>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO Confidential Kick-Off

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average


10 MIAMI at *Arizona

Late Score Forecast:

MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

(Sunday, September 14)

Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

*** EZWINNERS NFL ***

5 STAR: (219) PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
(Risking $550 to win $500)
7:15PM Central Time

3 STAR: (202) CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
(Risking $330 to win $300)
12PM Central Time

2 STAR: (197) NEW ORLEANS (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Phenom

NY Giants
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Green Bay
Seattle
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Miami at Arizona (Sunday 9/14 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Miami +7 (-110)


Last Sunday the Cardinals had ample opportunity to blow out the Niners as they had a five-turnover advantage. But they ended up in a close game at home vs a team they were supposed to beat. Arizona could not move the ball in the red-zone and cash in on five extra chances. Their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes vs an average offense, and still gave up plenty of yards. Not likely they will be +5 in turnovers here again. Miami was within one play of beating the Brett Favre hyped Jets, as Pennington drove them down to the Jets 18 late, but was picked off to end their hopes. Pennington still finished with 26 completions for 251 yds and 2 TDs, so the Dolphins immediately have a huge upgrade at QB as compared to the one-win team from 2007. Statistically the Fins played the Jets to a dead heat, and overall they looked like a better team than the Cardinals. This line is based on a 1-15 Dolphin team from a year ago (that happened to lose in week one). But the Cards don't deserve to be this chalky after last week's performance. Last year they were favored at home by 6 over Carolina and lost, 10 over San Francisco and lost, and 11 over Atlanta and had to go to OT to get the win. Miami is much better, and I'll back them with the points here.
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[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 09/14/08 - 4:05 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 SEA -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 209 SFX
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks will turn things around against division-opponent San Francisco on Sunday - thanks to an active defense and the 12th man. After all - Seattle blitzed the 49ers to death last season, outscoring them 47-3 in the two meetings.



Seattle also is a dominant 8-1 ATS win winning at home within the division the past three years - covering the spread by an average of 12 points.



San Francisco is being led by QB J.T. O'Sullivan, as the offense fell to one of the worst NFL road teams (Arizona) mainly due to five turnovers. Definitely not an easy task to now travel to the NFL's loudest stadium and correct things on offense.



The 49ers managed to average just 11 points per game in 12 of their last 14 games and that will continue in facing BY FAR - the best defense in their division.



Seattle still has a solid enough running game to display with new running back Julius Jones making his debut and Hasselbeck has the ability to bounce back from a rusty performance better than anyone in the National Football League.



The Seahawks make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games - marking head coach Mike Holmgren's 100th home victory of his distinguished career.

 

[B.S.S.]

Looking For The Late Steam From Sportswire
Thanks

 

[ymmit2nd]

Jimmy is stepping out with his first five-star play of the season in the NFL.
Ungraded
Handicapper: Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals on 09/14/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Miami Dolphins
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Miami showed a lot of grit in its season opener, hanging around for much of the game against Brett Favre and his New York Jets. See no reason why the Dolphins should be this big a dog against Arizona. Miami lost six games last year by a field goal or less. The Dolphins are 15-3-1 as non-division dogs of five points or more and they are 8-4-1 as pups against NFC opponents. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS after beating a division foe by double digits and 4-12 ATS at home off a SU&ATS win. They have also come up short in their last seven at home versus the AFC-East ATS. I'm grabbing the points with Miami

 

[ymmit2nd]

Double Black Diamond Selection! Tommy Dutch's NFL Play of the Month!
Ungraded
Handicapper: Tommy Dutch
League: NFL
Event: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns on 09/14/2008 at 5:15PM
Condition: Cleveland Browns
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Take the Browns! We're catching a bunch of points at home in a game between two teams I have rated essentially even. This is a Browns team which went 7-1 at home last season and improved in the offseason. Pittsburgh went 3-5 on the road last season including a big win at Cleveland in the first game when the Charlie Frye experiment was still in effect. The results from Week 1 help give us tremendous line value in this matchup between divisional rivals. These two teams know each other inside out. The statistical concern is that Pittsburgh was so successful running the football, while Cleveland could not stop Dallas on the ground. That's true but familiarity and a fired up Cleveland team at home are more than enough to compensate. Cleveland is expected to be a contender in the North and the Browns' season is measured on how they play against the Steelers. In the last meeting between the two teams Cleveland blew a 21-9 halftime lead and missed a field goal as time expired in a 31-28 loss. The Steelers were successful running the ball against the Browns last year and will try to establish themselves on the ground again. The Browns improved defensive front failed to impress in Week 1 but it was a tired unit. After the Browns fell behind against Dallas they were playing catch-up, throwing the ball ineffectively and putting the defense on the field for the majority of the game. The Browns rushing game was effective when used and will be the immediate focus in this contest. If established the passing game will open up and the Browns will be the right side. Cleveland will bring an A effort which the Steelers did not see against the Texans. Don't put too much stock in one game. Look for these divisional rivals to bang heads all night in a close contest. Take the Browns plus the points!

 

[Urlacher]

Doug Williams NFL Picks Sept. 12

Cleveland +7, -- Take the Browns at home vs. the Steelers. Don't get off of the Cleveland bandwagon just yet. I expect a monster game with more of their offensive weapons back in action.


Pats +1.5, -- Do you really think Bill Belichick will lose to Mangini? I don't. Is this the Cassell generation? Probably not. Still, take the Patriots (as dogs?!). Bet on the system, not the QB.


Arizona +7, -- Sometimes it just seems too obvious. Take Warner and the cards to stomp the fish at home.

Buffalo +5 -- The Bills might not beat the Jags on the road, but I do see them keeping it within a field goal.
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[Urlacher]

Sports MarketWatchNFL Week 2 - Early Moves9/12/2008 11:01 AM ESTby Daniel FabrizioSportsInsights.com Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch! Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 2 Recapping Last Week It was a solid opening NFL weekend for the sports betting industry. All sportsbooks reporting a healthy first week handle. JC, head lineman at Skybook, put it best, “It was good to finally have the buzz back of an NFL Sunday in comparison to the grind-it-out feeling of MLB.” Most sportsbooks retained a little less than 1% of their handle. The Public was up big after the 1pm games, and then began to give it all back after the 4pm. The Sunday night Chicago at Indy game was huge for the books. Chicago , a +10 point underdog, winning outright on the road, broke up a lot of parlays and saved the books from a long day of payouts on Monday. Our Games to Watch started the season off in the hole, going 1-2. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0, but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 0-3 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regular Season with a (26-19-2 = 57.8%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public won 50% of their games, going 6-6. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled out of the gate, going 1-2. View Last Week’s Column:Sports Marketwatch - Sports Betting News Info from Sportsbooks Betting Industry Free 7 Day Trial!*If you enjoy reading the Sports Marketwatch, try SportsInsights.com Premium Pro membership for 7 Days Free.NFL WEEK 2 We anticipate Indy, New Orleans , Green Bay , and Pittsburgh to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.NFL Week 2 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch 207 Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers This game caught the attention of our oddsmaker contacts immediately. Public money on Atlanta has dropped the line all the way from Tampa Bay -9 to the key number of -7. SportsInsights.com's exclusive betting percentages capture the imbalance of bets, and show that a surprising 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the visiting dog Falcons. It's rare that the public piles onto a visiting dog -- and rare for the NFL MarketWatch to select a favorite. However, sometimes the sports marketplace presents value on favorites.This match-up is a good example of selling on good news. Atlanta had a surprise opening weekend win over Detroit . At the same time, this is a good example of buying on bad news. Note that the Tampa Bay Bucs suffered a tough loss to New Orleans in Week 1. We'll use this combination of "selling good news" and "buying bad news" to grab a good NFL contrarian value. We'll "bet against the public" and grab the 2 points of line value. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 -105 (Skybook) 199 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions This is our Pepto Bismol play of the week. MarketWatch readers know that we often need bad teams to "not stink." In this game, we are cashing in on Green Bay ’s strong Monday Night Football (MNF) performance in the previous week. This means several things:A huge audience watched a convincing GB win. QB Aaron Rodgers, who took the reins over from Brett Favre, had one of the highest completion percentages in history -- in their game as a starter. The MNF spotlight and sparkling results add fuel to the Green Bay-Favre-Rodgers story. The MNF appearance also means one less day of preparation for this week's game against Detroit . Detroit, in their opening Sunday, was less stellar. The Lions lost 34-21 to non-powerhouse Atlanta team -- and the game wasn't even as close as the score. Before you could blink, Atlanta ran the score up to 21-0 by scoring 3TDs in the first quarter! The public is taking notice of Green Bay's strong performance and Detroit's poor performance by piling back onto the Pack's back. A huge 85% of bets are landing on the visiting Packers. We'll take a shot to Pepto and get down on Detroit +3.Detroit Lions +3.5 (Sports Interaction) 191 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs SportsInsights' proprietary sports marketplace tools flagged this game for "smart money." Early sharp action on Oakland pushed this line from Oak +4 to Oak +3.5. Notable in this line movement is the fact that almost 70% of the bets are taking KC. With two-thirds of the bets landing on KC, the line actually moved in the direction of Oakland. This means that some big money came in early and moved the line down from Oak +4 to Oak +3.5. Big money is also typically "smart money." We'll bet against the public and join the "early sharps" in this match-up. Note that Oakland got "beat up" by Denver late Monday night -- so we'll be buying the Raiders after "bad news." We like getting as much value as we can! Oakland Raiders +3.5 So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch: Games to Watch (1-2-0) Tampa Bay Bucs -7 Detroit Lions +3.5 Oakland Raiders +3.5 It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch. Enjoy the games! Daniel Fabrizio President SportsInsights.com

 

[Urlacher]

Does anyone have the Pointwise Phone plays? Thanks

 

[ymmit2nd]

2008-09-12 RON RAYMOND'S NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Tennessee Titans /Cincinnati Bengals Over 37 -110

 

[ymmit2nd]

Joyce Sterling
NFL Sunday 9/14

Washington +1
10 STAR Game of the Week
They improved on both sides of the ball last season.
They have had 9 days of rest. They can take advantage Saints vulnerable secondary.
The return of defensive backs Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs for the team's home opener will also help. Smoot left Thursday's game with a hip pointer and Springs missed it with a bruised shin, but both are expected to face the Saints' strong air attack.
New Orleans will be lacking one of its biggest playmakers for at least the next month. Receiver Marques Colston had surgery on his left thumb this week and will miss four to six weeks after sustaining ligament damage during his team's 24-20 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday.

This is Zorn's home debut and his team will be ready

St. Louis +9
Defending Super Bowl Champs are just 35-55 ATS as non-division road favorites the next year. When favored in road openers, 1-7 ATS off 1 win.
The Rams turn things around
Rams are 7-1 ATS as September road dogs.
Take the big points at home.

Atlanta +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have to play without their signal-caller Jeff Garcia.

Atlanta QB Ryan, only attempted 13 passes in his debut, but completed nine of them for 161 yards without an interception..
NFL road dogs that rush for 150 or more yards are 312-67-9 ATS.
Atlanta rushed for over 300 yards vs Lions last week.
Take the points

 

[ymmit2nd]

TheProSource NFL FB


Colts -1 **Top Play **
Colts OVER 43 **Top Play**
Chargers - 1 **Top Play **
Houston -4.5
GL !


Indianapolis - 1 **Top Play InterConf GOM**
at Minnesota 1 pm et
NFL teams which lost to a non-division opponent by 7 pts
or more, when they were favored by 7 pts or more rebound
strongly the following week.
These teams are 15-7 the L6Ys, almost 70%, and 63-35
ATS since 1980.
Extremely strong Wk 2 specific situation to:
PLAY AGAINST any NFL Gm 2 NON DIV team AT HOME
that is OFF A LOSS in Gm 1. Our Play ON team must also
be off a loss in their Gm 1...14-37 S1980, 73% for 27 years
when the posted line is in this range.
If our Play Against host lost Gm 1 to a DIVISION opponent,
when playing a winless NON-DIVISION foe in Gm 2, & the
line on the game is in this spread range, they are just 4-17
ATS, 81%..including 1-15 ATS if they were an UNDERDOG
in Gm1 and scored what the Vikes did in the loss.
..the tighteners get us an almost perfect 94% for 27 years.
Another GM 2 specific spot to:
Play AGAINST a Wk 2 HOME team that Played in the
Monday FB gameWk1...17-9 S1987.
extra info
The Vikes have been tough as a home underdog but they
are on a short week and off a HUGE media circus marquee
Monday nite game vs their hated post Favre-GB rivals.
The Colts, and especially Manning, looked uncomfortable
in their new stadium in Gm1. Mannings knee survived the
post-op test. Peyton and Co will be more comfortable in
Gm2, especially since they will benefit from playing in a
dome again. Would rather bank on Manning to bounce
back then young Vike QB Tavaris Jackson. Indianapolis
caught a few tough breaks in the opener. The key players
should be less rusty and more relaxed with the hype of
the opening game in a new stadium out of the way... and
Mannings knee surviving the test. The Colts have been
a strong road team and the Vikes are still a risky play on
team right now.
Minny has covered just 3 of their last 10 Gm 2's, is 2-8
last 10 home off an away.
Colts have won and covered 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9
against NFC opposition.


Minnesota OVER 43 **Top Play Inter-Conf TOM **
vs Indianapolis 1 pm et
One of our top Over systems. The 6 yr run of 14 overs in
16 chances brings the 13 yr record to 34-5 OVER, 87%.
Thi system will come up maybe 2 or 3 teams a season.
At one point, it had rattled off 12 Overs in a row.
The Vikes are "over" 7 of their last 9 at home, OV 5 of the
last 6 after playing GB
Colts were 6-1 OV lst season off an ATS loss, are 10-5 OV lst
15 off a SU loss.


San Diego - 2 ** Top Play AFC West GOM **
at Denver 4:15 et
Game 2 specific system to :
Play AGAINST a Wk 2 HOME team that Played in the
Monday FB gameWk1...17-9 S1987.
We have a rare and almost perfect set up here to:
Play ON any AWAY favorite in a DIVISION game that is
off a straight up HOME loss by 3 or less...19-6-1
IF the team is a favorite in this spread range, and is also
playing a team with Denvers WL mark from LY, 13-2-1.
thats close to 90%.
extra info
Success has been a spoiler for Denver who is 27-47 ATS
off a SU win S2000. Denver is just 4-10 L14 at home.
Defeat has been an adrenaline shot for the Bolts. SD is
12-3-2 ATS off a SU loss. SD is 22-10 as rd fav since ’92
We think Denvers dream of padding the top rung of the
AFC West with SD's home loss and the Bronco's road win,
will turn into a nightmare here. Denver faces a short week,
and we expect a much better effort from the Bolts on both
sides of the ball. Denver is no longer the dominant home
team of past years which gives us a great line here.


Houston - 4.5 regular play
vs Baltimore 4:15 et
Not a big system game. When we see a team that lost
badly last week laying over a FG to a team off an upset
home win, we have to follow the Vegas tip and explore why.
The Texans were overwhelmed early in the game last week
at Pittsburgh and never recovered. Baltimore won at home
last week vs a marginal Bengals team. here we go...
The Ravens hit the road here with a new HC and Joe Flaco
at QB. The Texans play in a retractable Domed stadium
(that should be closed for this one due to the weather), and
this is the first time the Ravens will be playing under a roof
in 28 games. These are BIG disadvantages for the Ravens
vs a Houston team that is starting to protect it's home field
with tenacity, going 6-2 SU / ATS last season and 10-4 their
last 14 at reliant Stadium. The Texans fend off some tough
teams here..keep in mind that they play the Colts, Jags and
Titans each season...very tough competition.
The solid debuts for the new Ravens, Coach John Harbaugh
and QB Joe Flacco came at home against a bad team.
The Ravens defense must be respected, but the Texans have
the pass rushers that will force mistakes vs a green offense.
Houston can score points here....they averaged 28 ppg last
year at home, and never scored under 20. We don't see the
Ravens having the horses to keep up.
Houston has 3 division games next, but Baltimore is in a
Cinci - Cle Divison sandwich with the Steelers up next.
A bit of a line to clear, but the SU winner in Houston games
in Sept is 18-2 ATS. HC Kubiak is 7-1 here vs a team entering
off a win.
Not the greatest systems we have but :
Play AGAINST road teams off a SU home dog win andthey
rushed for 150 plus yds ...65%