Service Plays Sunday 7/27/14

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Jeff clement

7* arizona/ philadelphia over 8.5 (-125)
underdog of the day new york mets +125
8* baltimore -105
8* Detroit Tigers
 
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Jeff Clement

Jeff's MLB Road Warrior 8 Unit Play!

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels

8 Unit Detroit Tigers -105

Detroit(57-44) vs. Los Angeles Angels(62-41). R.Porcello(12-5) ERA 3.42 vs. H.Santiago(2-7) ERA 4.02. The Tigers are 8-2 last 10 Porcello road games and 8-2 last 10 road games as an underdog. The Angels are 2-9 last 11 Santiago starts against teams with winning records and 0-4 last 4 Santiago home starts as a favorite. Detroit is a 8 Unit Play!
 
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The Padres and Braves have split their first two games of this series and Sunday sees two lefty’s go head to head in Atlanta. Eric Stults gets the nod for the Padres and has had an awful season up to this point in 2014. He is 3-12 in 20 starts and ranks 4th worst in the NL with a 5.00 ERA and 3rd worst with a lofty 1.46 WHIP. Stults has struggled even more in his 11 starts away from San Diego, going 0-8 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Stults has given up 20 HR in 2014 and ranks worst in the NL in terms slugging percentage against with .496.

The Braves give the ball to Mike Minor, who has been roughed up to the sound of 12 ER on 21 hits over 9 IP innings in his last two outings. Minor is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 8 starts away from Turner Field this season. Just like Stults, Mike Minor gives up a lot of HR with Minor surrendering 10 homers in eight starts at home in 2014.

Although the Padres have been cold with the bat in 2014, they have hit a purple patch recently by hitting .282 and averaging over 5 runs per game over the last week. The Braves are just 3-14 (.214) with RISP in the opening two games of this series and have left 18 runners on base. I like both teams to put runs on the board tonight and with the goal at 7.5, I see great value in taking the Over in this match up.

San Diego Padres / Atlanta Braves Over 7.5
 
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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Arizona @ PHILADELPHIA

Arizona -109 over PHILADELPHIA

(Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

Roberto Heredia Hernández (formerly Fausto Carmona) still isn’t fooling anyone. His biggest problem is his inability to find the strike zone. Hernandez has the worst BB/K split in the majors in terms of ratio among pitchers with at least 10 starts. In 106 innings, Hernandez has walked 54 batters while striking out just 71. Hernandez has posted a horrific hr/f of 11% for two years running. A drop in control, struggles vs. lefties and dominant start/disaster start split all hint that a disastrous second half might be in the cards, just like last season.

Vidal Nuno really isn’t much better but at least he throws strikes and is in much better form. The “change of scenery” theory in which traded players are invigorated may apply here. Nuno has a BB/K split in his last five starts of 7/24 in 27 innings. He’s posted a 3.29 ERA over that span and has a good chance to keep it going here. The real story behind this wager however, is that the Diamondbacks are simply playing much better and scoring a lot more runs. The Phillies went off for nine runs on Friday but that was only their third win in 11 games. They’ve also scored three runs or less in six of those 11 losses. Philadelphia’s .224 batting average at home against lefties is the fourth worst mark in the majors. By contrast, Arizona is hitting .280 over their last 15 games, which is the second best mark in the NL. They are also 9-6 over that span and have scored 15 runs over the first two games of this series. On Friday they scored five times but between Mark Trumbo and Miguel Montero, batting 5th and 6th respectively, that pair left 12 runners stranded. The Snakes could’ve tripled Friday’s output. The Diamondbacks could be in for a strong second half, as they grossly underachieved in the first half and now they’re heating up. As a small favorite here, one has to like their chances.


Miami @ HOUSTON

Miami +103 over HOUSTON

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)

The Marlins have won six of seven and the first two games of this series while the Astros have dropped four straight and seven of their last nine. Over their last three games, Houston is hitting .198 and has scored four runs. Collin McHugh returns to the rotation after rehabbing from a finger injury. McHugh was performing poorly before going down. He gave up 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts - all losses. In fact, he has not posted a victory since June 3. McHugh had a nice run early in the year which has led to his 3.28 ERA but don’t expect it to continue. Formerly Colorado’s waiver fodder and NYM farm-hand, Houston picked up Collin McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level, in December and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's been able to stick around. Dude caught lightning in a bottle for a brief time but the league has caught up to him.

Jacob Turner is high on our radar as a prime breakout target. Jacob Turner was the key to the Anibal Sanchez trade in the summer of 2012. Turner was demoted to the pen to work some things out and in his reinsertion into the rotation last Tuesday he pitched five strong innings against Atlanta. He’ll likely get stretched out a little more here. His average fastball velocity is +1.2 mph vs. 2012 and ‘13. He has a high 12% swinging strike rate, so his 8K/9 potential is right there. He also has outstanding command against both LH and RH bats. Turner comes in with an elite groundball rate in his career of 52%. This year it’s a point higher at 53%. At age 23 with a 1st-round pedigree and nasty stuff, he is most definitely a pooch worth backing against the reeling and free-swinging Astros.


Pittsburgh @ COLORADO

COLORADO +107 over Pittsburgh

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

For whatever reason, the Pirates are the only team in MLB that has trouble scoring runs at this launching pad. Pittsburgh has been outscored in the first two games of this series 16-2. Previously, they played here last August and got swept, scoring seven runs in three games. That’s five straight losses at this venue for the Bucs, where they have scored nine runs in those five games. Furthermore, this has been a house of horrors for Edinson Volquez. In seven games started at Coors over the last three years, Volquez has allowed 52 hits in 32 innings for a BAA of .362. In those 32 frames, he’s walked 19 batters, surrendered 33 runs and has been tagged for six jacks. His record at Coors in the last three years reads as follows: 1-5 W/L record, 9.19 ERA, .362 oppBA, 2.42 WHIP. He’ll now face a Rockies team is seeing beach balls and that leads the NL in many offensive categories over the past 15 games that include a team batting average of .290 with 19 bombs. Volquez has to be feeling a little anxious about starting here because he basically pitches with the sacks full every inning before getting rocked. Should the Pirates really be favored based on their own and Volquez’s performances here recently? We think not.
 
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The Padres and Braves have split their first two games of this series and Sunday sees two lefty’s go head to head in Atlanta. Eric Stults gets the nod for the Padres and has had an awful season up to this point in 2014. He is 3-12 in 20 starts and ranks 4th worst in the NL with a 5.00 ERA and 3rd worst with a lofty 1.46 WHIP. Stults has struggled even more in his 11 starts away from San Diego, going 0-8 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Stults has given up 20 HR in 2014 and ranks worst in the NL in terms slugging percentage against with .496.

The Braves give the ball to Mike Minor, who has been roughed up to the sound of 12 ER on 21 hits over 9 IP innings in his last two outings. Minor is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 8 starts away from Turner Field this season. Just like Stults, Mike Minor gives up a lot of HR with Minor surrendering 10 homers in eight starts at home in 2014.

Although the Padres have been cold with the bat in 2014, they have hit a purple patch recently by hitting .282 and averaging over 5 runs per game over the last week. The Braves are just 3-14 (.214) with RISP in the opening two games of this series and have left 18 runners on base. I like both teams to put runs on the board tonight and with the goal at 7.5, I see great value in taking the Over in this match up.

San Diego Padres / Atlanta Braves Over 7.5
 
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2* Colorado Rockies +105

We can't back Volquez at Coors, even against the beat up Rockies. Volquez is 0-6, with a 12.00 ERA in 7 starts against the Rockies. And opposite of him is Morales, who I actually like and he should eat up 6 or so innings today. Plus, the Pirates aren't hitting. And if they couldn't hit Matzuk or Anderson, I'm definitely not going to think they're going to hit Morales. In the end, the Rockies are hitting, the guys who are injured are giving other guys chances to step up, and I think the Pirates are going to get rolled today.

If you want my thoughts on other games, I DO like the UNDER tonight in the MLB game with it being Peavy's first start against Ryu...I see that one going UNDER. And I also like the Reds today +110. But the Reds aren't hitting well right now, and I can't take Latos to pitch like Cueto did yesterday. So what I'm going to do is play the afternoon games, then if we're up...I will play the UNDER tonight for 2*. This WON'T be an official play or one we'll track for records, but my job is to help us make money...and if we're up after the 3 afternoon games, I will play the UNDER on the Giants/Dodgers game.
 
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SleepyJ

How do you think the Dodgers are going to treat Peavy? When a pitcher has been traded away, i like to play against if i think we have some value. Let's face it. Peavy is a grinder and a baller but has a horrible record. I don't think he is that bad in reality. I do however think the Dodgers with Ryu on the mound at a price of -102 is a gift. Dodgers are playing well in SF. The Giants have struggled to hit the ball the last 4 games. I think SF can wake up the bats against Ryu but i dont think Peavy can silence this Dodger team. Dodgers are looking for a sweep here and to spoil this debut for a guy they can really take advantage of..I dont mind going against a guy making a move to another team. I'll be happy to back Puig, Ramirez & Ryu tomorrow.

Play LA Dodgers -102
 
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SportsCashSystem


extra bonus system for today:


Miami Marlins +105 over the Houston Astros (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 2:10 PM EST - Early Play ALERT
 
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Josh Daniels

3* Milwaukee Brewers

2* Colorado Rockies

2* Miami Marlins

1* Philadelphia Phillies

1* Toronto Blue Jays

1* Seattle Mariners
 
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Joe Gavazzi

5 Los Angeles Dodgers -115 (Ryu/Peavy)

5 Oakland Athletics -1.5/-25

4 New York Yankees -30 (Greene)

4 Washington Nationals Fister -20

3 Tampa Bay Rays Action -60

3 Kansas City Royals Action Even Money
 
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Carson K

Colorado Rockies

A few reasons why I like the Rockies on Sunday.

1. Volquez has been pitching well until his last start vs. LAD (5.2in 10h 5r). Not a good time for him to lose some confidence in his stuff.

2. Last season Volquez went out to Colorado 4 times. He went 0-3, 16.2in, 35h & gave up 25runs.

3. The Rockies starting line-up is hitting .384 vs. Volquez. That is with Gonzalez being a ? mark for 2mrw. If he is ready to go that is a big plus, he is 10-19 (.526ba) vs. Volquez.

4. Revenge: The Rockies were just swept last week by the Pirates.

5. Pitt is batting .244 vs. LHP.

6. Pitt is batting .227 in day games.

7. I believe Morales can go 6 innings. If he does that and only gives up 2 or 3 runs, we should be in good shape.

8. I can see most ppl taking Pitt thinking they can't lose again. When ppl bet like that, I like being on the other side.
 
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Wunderdog Sports

Free Pick

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers -121

The New York Mets are not a good road team, and a weak offensive one. The Mets are 4-9 in their last 13 road games, plus 9-19 in their last 28 games as a road underdog. New York starter Jacob deGrom has won three in a row, but it was against weak offensive teams. He still has a losing record for the season and has a 4.14 ERA on the road. He faces a powerhouse first-place Milwaukee offense, sixth in baseball in runs scored and fifth in slugging. Milawukee is on a 5-1 run, and the Brewers are 6-1 in their last seven games as a home favorite. The Mets are 1-4 in the last five meetings, and the home team holds all the cards again. Play Milwaukee!
 

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SpOrTs-JuNkiE's 07-27-14 ($500 Play of the Day!!)

TODAY IS A RARE TWO PLAY DAY!!
(5-0 L/5 plays)

BetThisPick


Play #1:

07-27-14: MLB: Arizona vs Phillies (1:35 pm est.)

$500 MLB Play: Arizona ML -110 (Bovada) <------ (Pending)

Key TRENDS for this game:
Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Phillies are 15-36 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 overall. Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
Phillies are 7-20 in their last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-12 in their last 16 games following a loss.
Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Phillies are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.
Phillies are 2-7 in their last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
Phillies are 2-9 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Phillies are 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 Sunday games.
Phillies are 2-5 in Hernandezs last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 2-6 in Hernandezs last 8 starts as an underdog.
Phillies are 1-4 in Hernandezs last 5 starts.
Phillies are 1-4 in Hernandezs last 5 starts on grass.
Phillies are 0-4 in Hernandezs last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 0-4 in Hernandezs last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 0-5 in Hernandezs last 5 home starts.
Phillies are 0-4 in Hernandezs last 4 starts as a home underdog.

Play #2:

07-27-14: MLB: Pirates vs Rockies (4:10 pm est.)

$500 MLB Play: Rockies ML +106 (Bovada) <------ (Pending)

Key TRENDS for this game:
Pirates are 15-31 in their last 46 during game 3 of a series.

Pirates are 36-83 in their last 119 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Pirates are 22-52 in their last 74 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Pirates are 1-10 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.

Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Rockies are 4-1 in Morales' last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 4-1 in Morales' last 5 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rockies are 7-3 in Morales' last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Colorado.
Home team is 8-3 in Hallions last 11 games behind home plate vs. Colorado.
Pirates are 6-20 in their last 26 games with Hallion behind home plate.
 

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