JEFFERSON-SPORTS 5-0 yesterday, all coll. hoops
NCAA HOOPS 48-24 (67%)
NFL 42-21-1 (66%)
Good 5-0 yest, lets build from there,
NFL
ATLANTA-2.5 -125
Revenge game here for Falcons. Ryan and Turner played their worst game against the Bucs early on. We have been on the Falcons a lot this year, especially at home. Bucs coming off a short week to face a good, young, revenge minded Falcons team that will have a lot of home cooking going on. Carolina may have exposed the Bucs a little as well. I expect a great effort from the Falcons and Matt Ryan has been sensational for a rookie. Huge game to get in the playoff hunt for Falcons being a game back. Big day for the franchise. They have been one of the best teams in the NFL at home putting up 32 points a game. FALCONS-2.5
ARIZONA CARDS-2.5 -125
This line will probably go up so get on it soon and get the 2.5. Tav. Jackson will be starting for the Vikes. I do not trust him yet. Before he was benched he was just completing a little over 50% of his passes. We also have a banged up Allen for the vikes which is a big loss if your best pass rusher is not 100% going against Warner. Quietly the Cards have the 10th best D in the NFL. Everyone talks about Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, but this D can play. They will still be pumped to play because they are still playing for seeding. The crowd will be excited because they have clinched a playoff berth. They will put 8 in the box to stop AP and Tavaris should be good for a couple of mistakes. Just need a FG to win ARIZ-2.5
another update around 930 pac, remember we are on the
Ravens-2.5 as well (from other day)
NCAA HOOPS 48-24 (67%)
NFL 42-21-1 (66%)
Good 5-0 yest, lets build from there,
NFL
ATLANTA-2.5 -125
Revenge game here for Falcons. Ryan and Turner played their worst game against the Bucs early on. We have been on the Falcons a lot this year, especially at home. Bucs coming off a short week to face a good, young, revenge minded Falcons team that will have a lot of home cooking going on. Carolina may have exposed the Bucs a little as well. I expect a great effort from the Falcons and Matt Ryan has been sensational for a rookie. Huge game to get in the playoff hunt for Falcons being a game back. Big day for the franchise. They have been one of the best teams in the NFL at home putting up 32 points a game. FALCONS-2.5
ARIZONA CARDS-2.5 -125
This line will probably go up so get on it soon and get the 2.5. Tav. Jackson will be starting for the Vikes. I do not trust him yet. Before he was benched he was just completing a little over 50% of his passes. We also have a banged up Allen for the vikes which is a big loss if your best pass rusher is not 100% going against Warner. Quietly the Cards have the 10th best D in the NFL. Everyone talks about Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, but this D can play. They will still be pumped to play because they are still playing for seeding. The crowd will be excited because they have clinched a playoff berth. They will put 8 in the box to stop AP and Tavaris should be good for a couple of mistakes. Just need a FG to win ARIZ-2.5
another update around 930 pac, remember we are on the
Ravens-2.5 as well (from other day)
Trace Adams
2500* - NY Jets, 1000* - Tennessee Titans 2 weeks ago, after the Jets had routed Tennessee at Tennessee, Brett Favre and company looked like a lock to win the AFC. My how things have changed, as New York has suffered back-to-back losses to Denver, and at San Francisco to come back to the pack. But, and this is a big BUT...the Jets still control their own destiny!
A win and cover today against the fading, and faded Bills is way in order, as Buffalo has just 1 win and cover in their last 7 games, and their offense has been held to just a field goal in each of their last pair of losses.
Injuries have taken their toll on Buffalo, and it is doubtful to me that after losing their big division showdown with Miami last week, the Bills are going to be too inspired on the road today once they get behind.
This one will turn into a rout before long. New York won a 26-17 decision at Buffalo as the 5-point dog back on November 2nd, as the Jets forced some timely turnovers en route to the upset win.
Expect New York to use the same formula they used in that win Sunday afternoon. Pounding the running game with Jones, and Washington against the banged up Bills defense, and Favre mixing in some safe play-action to open this game up.
The line may seem a little "steep", but with Buffalo's offense showing just 17-points or less in 5 of their last 7 games (including the loss to the Flyboys), the Bills just aren't in the hunt come the end of this one.
Lay it, lay it, lay it!
2500♦ One-and-Only AFC Game of the Year on the New York Jets!
2500♦ - New York Jets
I am still scratching my head over the line in today's Titans-Texans game!?!?!?!?
Either this is the biggest sucker play, or NOBODY believes in this 12-1 Tennessee team?
Well, I am sold on the Titans, as not only are they 12-1 straight up, but they are 11-2 against the spread this season. Included is a 31-12 rout of Houston as the 4 1/2-point home favorite back on September 21st, the Titans 5th straight win, and cover against Houston.
Houston appears to be coming on strong, and lots of folks are intrigued by their "upset" win at Lambeau Field last week, but Matt Schaub did turn it over a few times, and Houston's recent uptick comes against some bad teams - see Jacksonville, and Cleveland!
The Titans are a perfect 6-0 against the spread on the road this year, and a win today secures home-field advantage through the playoffs! With games against the Steelers, and the Colts on-deck, you can bet that Jeff Fisher WANTS this to be the clincher.
Lay the small road wood.
1000♦ - Tennessee Titans
2500* - NY Jets, 1000* - Tennessee Titans 2 weeks ago, after the Jets had routed Tennessee at Tennessee, Brett Favre and company looked like a lock to win the AFC. My how things have changed, as New York has suffered back-to-back losses to Denver, and at San Francisco to come back to the pack. But, and this is a big BUT...the Jets still control their own destiny!
A win and cover today against the fading, and faded Bills is way in order, as Buffalo has just 1 win and cover in their last 7 games, and their offense has been held to just a field goal in each of their last pair of losses.
Injuries have taken their toll on Buffalo, and it is doubtful to me that after losing their big division showdown with Miami last week, the Bills are going to be too inspired on the road today once they get behind.
This one will turn into a rout before long. New York won a 26-17 decision at Buffalo as the 5-point dog back on November 2nd, as the Jets forced some timely turnovers en route to the upset win.
Expect New York to use the same formula they used in that win Sunday afternoon. Pounding the running game with Jones, and Washington against the banged up Bills defense, and Favre mixing in some safe play-action to open this game up.
The line may seem a little "steep", but with Buffalo's offense showing just 17-points or less in 5 of their last 7 games (including the loss to the Flyboys), the Bills just aren't in the hunt come the end of this one.
Lay it, lay it, lay it!
2500♦ One-and-Only AFC Game of the Year on the New York Jets!
2500♦ - New York Jets
I am still scratching my head over the line in today's Titans-Texans game!?!?!?!?
Either this is the biggest sucker play, or NOBODY believes in this 12-1 Tennessee team?
Well, I am sold on the Titans, as not only are they 12-1 straight up, but they are 11-2 against the spread this season. Included is a 31-12 rout of Houston as the 4 1/2-point home favorite back on September 21st, the Titans 5th straight win, and cover against Houston.
Houston appears to be coming on strong, and lots of folks are intrigued by their "upset" win at Lambeau Field last week, but Matt Schaub did turn it over a few times, and Houston's recent uptick comes against some bad teams - see Jacksonville, and Cleveland!
The Titans are a perfect 6-0 against the spread on the road this year, and a win today secures home-field advantage through the playoffs! With games against the Steelers, and the Colts on-deck, you can bet that Jeff Fisher WANTS this to be the clincher.
Lay the small road wood.
1000♦ - Tennessee Titans
NORM HITZGES
December 12-16
Triple Play--Carolina -7.5 vs Denver
Double Plays
Atlanta -3 vs Tampa
San Francisco +6.5 vs Miami
Dallas/NY Giants Under 45
Single Plays
Houston +3 vs Tennessee
Baltimore -2 vs Pittsburgh
Kansas City +5 vs San Diego
Arizona -3 Minnesota
Washington/Cincinnati Under 36.5
Miami/San Francisco Under 41.5
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 34.5
Philadelphia/Cleveland Under 39.5
December 12-16
Triple Play--Carolina -7.5 vs Denver
Double Plays
Atlanta -3 vs Tampa
San Francisco +6.5 vs Miami
Dallas/NY Giants Under 45
Single Plays
Houston +3 vs Tennessee
Baltimore -2 vs Pittsburgh
Kansas City +5 vs San Diego
Arizona -3 Minnesota
Washington/Cincinnati Under 36.5
Miami/San Francisco Under 41.5
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 34.5
Philadelphia/Cleveland Under 39.5
IC Sunday Research
5 Unit Going Today
IC Research Report:
Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
Note, that the Wide receiver in Jones will be out this game due to a suspension and that Fred Taylor is expected to miss action. The line opened up at -2 offshore and in most places sits at -2.5. The total has gone down from 46 to 45. GB seems to be the public fav here as over 70% are backing them on the road and why not after the loss to the Texans at home. The Jags have lost their last four covers while GB has lost their last 3 covers. I lean on GB as well as they seem to be playing with a lot more heart and motivation than Jacksonville right now who seems to have packed it in, but I can’t take any team that is backed by the public over a tune of 70%.
Lions vs. Colts
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. No thanks either way here.
Falcons vs. Bucs
Currently, this line sits at -3 for the home Falcons who up to thus far has lost just one game at home. The Falcons lost to the Bucs earlier this year so this is a revenge game for Atlanta. The line opened up at -3 in books and has not budged a bit and the total has done down slightly from 45 to 44.5. You might be surprised to learn that Atlanta is actually receiving 60% of the public support. Garcia has thrown for over 2200 yards while Ryan has thrown for nearly 3000 yards. Remember, Tampa Bay beat this team 24-9 and easily covered the 7 point chalk against Atlanta in their last game earlier this year. Both teams come off division losses in which Tampa Bay lost 23-38 at Carolina and Atlanta lost 25-29 at New Orleans. Remember, Atlanta is 5-1 at home (TB is 6-0 at home btw) and did beat division leading Carolina 45-28 at home. Atlanta has not lost back to back covers over the last ten games. I lean on the Falcons here as if I’m not mistaken, NFC South teams at home have won over 90% of the games straight up this year.
Seahawks vs. Rams
Hasselbeck is downgraded to doubtful and Seneca Wallace is expected to start. Don’t count out Wallace as a scrub though as remember he led the Seahawks to nearly a win at Miami and an easy cover on the road in that game. Hence, the Rams see themselves as a home dog as Seattle comes off a big effort against NE unsuccessfully. By the way, I think Jim Mora Jr. is a poison and a terrible coach that will inflict complete and total mediocrity to this team as he can’t coach worth a lick and has made it quite apparent that his first coaching job was not the Seattle job but rather the Washington job in college. The total opened up at 43and has come downs slightly to 43. The Rams of course have Bulger back and I know that 61% favor the Seahawks here but I like Seattle as well. Seattle has lost six straight games and frankly I think this is a tough call either way but Seneca Wallace usually has a way of covering games when he starts as the Hawks never given up from start to finish. But, I’ll likely just stay away as I think this game is a crap shoot.
Bills vs. Jets
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Edwards is listed as doubtful so it seems that J.P. will get the start. The total has not moved from 41 but the line has moved from -7 for the Jets to -7.5 and even -8 at some books. The Jets are 8-5 and this is a bigger game than most realize as there is a big difference from being 9-5 and 8-6. The Jets beat Buffalo 26-17 earlier this year on the road and easily covered the 5 point dog tag. Buffalo comes off losing 3-16 to Miami as well as 3-10 to San Fran at home. The Jets have lost back to back games and up last week hadn’t lost back to back games in quite some time. As per this game, I would love to take the Jets here off back to back losses and who knows, they might cover and 65% of the public could be right. Having said that though, Losman makes his return here and this could be a game where he steps up for his squad. The line keeps going up and Buffalo does have revenge against this team as well. Why is it so hard to believe that Buffalo could come with some revenge, they come off back to back home losses but have also lost 6 of their last 7. For me, this game is no play. In part because Losman could take advantage of the situation and the Bills could be competitive with revenge, but I certainly would not want to go against the Jets who come off back to back losses and will look to avoid losing 3 in a row for the first this year and the Jets are due for a breakout due to the frustration over the last two games.
Steelers vs. Ravens
Ravens sit as a -2 point favorite which I’m sure Pitt is aware of and the total sits at 34.5. This is a big game for both teams as they very well could meet in the playoffs. But, having said that, I would never want to test the chip on the Steelers shoulder for being placed as a dog here. Remember, the Steelers went into New England and won 33-10 as a 1 point dog. This team has won their last 4 games and 5 of 6. Heck, they covered at Jacksonville, Cincy, Washington and New England. Baltimore however has covered their last 7 of 8 including defeating the Redskins, Eagles and Raiders over their last 3 home games and easily covering the spread. Having said that, the Ravens come off a very big win on Sunday Night Football and this will be a tough spread for them to cover coming off a national television game such as that. I know the Ravens have revenge, but I actually lean a bit on the Steelers to win this game outright. I think a 1.5 unit play on the ML is worth the risk here.
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Note, that Ferotte is listed as doubtful for this game and it seems that Jackson will get the start in this all important game. Remember the Vikings come off a squeaker at Detroit and now hit the road to face the Cardinals. DT Allen is listed as probable for the Vikings and they have two more defensive lineman who are listed as possible depending on suspension situations and the league. I want to take the Cardinals very badly in this game, but this is also the biggest public play of the day as over 76% of the public backs the Cardinals here as Jackson stinks. Yet, such was the case when the Vikings were at New Orleans and all sorts of shadiness happened so that the Saints not only lost the cover but the game as well. The Vikings were the same team to win big at Jacksonville even though they didn’t look impressive against Detroit. This is a much more must win game for the Vikings as compared to the Cardinals who really have no competition in their division. I lean on the Cardinals as Warner’s potential for offense is far greater than Tarvaris Jackson who wouldn’t be good enough to start for the top 50 collegiate schools in the nation, nevertheless for the Vikings. But, having said that, how do you wager on a team that has over 76% of the public’s backing?
Patriots vs. Raiders
Note that Cassell is questionable after the death of his father. O’Connell would be the starter if Cassell does not play. If it is O’Connell that starts as compared to Cassell the line would move from down from NE -7 to NE -3.5. Speaking of public backing, the current consensus has the Patriots backed by over 80% in this game. I can easily see the Raiders getting up for this game as it is the Patriots but the Pats have had no trouble covering against the Dolphins on the road or at the Colts. This team was fortunate to defeat the Seahawks on the road however. Oakland comes off back to back losses including outright losses to the Chiefs and a burial at San Diego. It is important to this game obviously if Cassell starts as compared to O’Connell. Nevertheless, once again, tough to back any team that has the public backing of 80%.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Note that Jerry Jones basically called Marion Barber a sissy so I expect a strong game from Barber. And, why wouldn’t Jones do that? You wouldn’t expect anything less from a guy that is desperate to go back to the playoffs as he has shelled a lot of money out this year only to see Romo go out for a few games and now this team scratching and clawing against the Bucs and Falcons for the last two playoff spots. Running Back Jacobs is listed as questionable for the Giants while although Barber is listed as questionable, I am fairly confident he will play after being called out by the owner the previous week. Adam Jones is OUT for this game but considering he has stunk this year anyway and might be more of a distraction, this could be a good thing for this team. Well, this game can’t get any bigger for the Cowboys. This team is 8-5 and fighting for the playoffs. Thee Cowboys have revenge against the Giants from getting blown out earlier this year at NY when Johnson was the QB. The Cowboys have not lost back to back covers since Romo came back. If I’m not mistaken, the Giants have not lost back to back covers all year and they would love to be the reason why Dallas essentially is knocked out of the playoffs. After all, if the Falcons win against the Bucs and the Cowboys lose to the Giants, mark my words, Atlanta will go dancing. After all, the Cowboys would be a full game behind and then have to face the Ravens at home and Eagles on the road. The Falcons close with the Vikings on the road and the Rams at home and can go 1-1 and secure the playoff spot because the Falcons will likely have the better conference record. Remember, the Giants have a lot to prove as well as they have been taking a lot of heat for losing to the Eagles at home as many are openly questioning this receiving core of this team which I’m sure Coughlin has addressed in practice. I know it sounds a bit anti-climatic here but I lean on the Giants here on a bounce-back as that has been one of the best plays in all the NFL over the last two years. Heck, the Giants are 10-3 ATS this year and I just don’t think the Cowboys are all that – their offense is rock solid, their defense is highly questionable in my book but with Burress out I think this team does lose a big play threat downfield and note that Jacobs is banged up for this game for the Giants and is listed as questionable. Plus, Barber was called out last week so he will have a big game, no thanks, staying far away from this game.
Browns vs. Eagles
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Winslow is listed as doubtful. Well, the Eagles come off the biggest win of the season at the Giants and now face a 14 point spread. Lol. Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS over their last six games but did win at Buffalo outright earlier this year. Philly comes off back to back covers winning big against Arizona as well as the Giants on the road. I think the Eagles offense will put up around 30 to 35 points here but the question is what will the Eagles defense do as it relates to this cover. Once again, when you come off a big public win such as what the Eagles did, it is very tough to step up the next game against an inflated line and cover. This is Monday Night Football and remember what the Browns did last time on MNF – they defeated the Giants themselves outright at home as 9 point dogs. They were led by Anderson in that game much the same way when they defeated the Bengals on the road with Anderson. Stollworth faces his old team here and although Winslow is listed as doubtful for this game, this team still has Braylon Edwards and an up and coming tight end as well. Dorsey attempted nearly 45 pass attempts at Tennessee and this team I think did very admirably against the Titans. I lean on the Browns here but I just can’t go against the Eagles who are playing with a chip on their shoulder, in particular, McNabb is ever since he was called out and questioned openly by the media and made fun of because of the tie against the Bengals on the road. The public is on the over to a tune of 70% as well.
Sunday's Comp Selection:
#305. Detroit Lions +17 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm est).
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. But, the Lions have had solid success covering on the road and I like them here with Orlovsky as he is a much better player overall and I think the Lions will make it interesting and likely lose by 10-13 points here. It's enough for me to take a shot on them as my comp selection. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
5 Unit Going Today
IC Research Report:
Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
Note, that the Wide receiver in Jones will be out this game due to a suspension and that Fred Taylor is expected to miss action. The line opened up at -2 offshore and in most places sits at -2.5. The total has gone down from 46 to 45. GB seems to be the public fav here as over 70% are backing them on the road and why not after the loss to the Texans at home. The Jags have lost their last four covers while GB has lost their last 3 covers. I lean on GB as well as they seem to be playing with a lot more heart and motivation than Jacksonville right now who seems to have packed it in, but I can’t take any team that is backed by the public over a tune of 70%.
Lions vs. Colts
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. No thanks either way here.
Falcons vs. Bucs
Currently, this line sits at -3 for the home Falcons who up to thus far has lost just one game at home. The Falcons lost to the Bucs earlier this year so this is a revenge game for Atlanta. The line opened up at -3 in books and has not budged a bit and the total has done down slightly from 45 to 44.5. You might be surprised to learn that Atlanta is actually receiving 60% of the public support. Garcia has thrown for over 2200 yards while Ryan has thrown for nearly 3000 yards. Remember, Tampa Bay beat this team 24-9 and easily covered the 7 point chalk against Atlanta in their last game earlier this year. Both teams come off division losses in which Tampa Bay lost 23-38 at Carolina and Atlanta lost 25-29 at New Orleans. Remember, Atlanta is 5-1 at home (TB is 6-0 at home btw) and did beat division leading Carolina 45-28 at home. Atlanta has not lost back to back covers over the last ten games. I lean on the Falcons here as if I’m not mistaken, NFC South teams at home have won over 90% of the games straight up this year.
Seahawks vs. Rams
Hasselbeck is downgraded to doubtful and Seneca Wallace is expected to start. Don’t count out Wallace as a scrub though as remember he led the Seahawks to nearly a win at Miami and an easy cover on the road in that game. Hence, the Rams see themselves as a home dog as Seattle comes off a big effort against NE unsuccessfully. By the way, I think Jim Mora Jr. is a poison and a terrible coach that will inflict complete and total mediocrity to this team as he can’t coach worth a lick and has made it quite apparent that his first coaching job was not the Seattle job but rather the Washington job in college. The total opened up at 43and has come downs slightly to 43. The Rams of course have Bulger back and I know that 61% favor the Seahawks here but I like Seattle as well. Seattle has lost six straight games and frankly I think this is a tough call either way but Seneca Wallace usually has a way of covering games when he starts as the Hawks never given up from start to finish. But, I’ll likely just stay away as I think this game is a crap shoot.
Bills vs. Jets
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Edwards is listed as doubtful so it seems that J.P. will get the start. The total has not moved from 41 but the line has moved from -7 for the Jets to -7.5 and even -8 at some books. The Jets are 8-5 and this is a bigger game than most realize as there is a big difference from being 9-5 and 8-6. The Jets beat Buffalo 26-17 earlier this year on the road and easily covered the 5 point dog tag. Buffalo comes off losing 3-16 to Miami as well as 3-10 to San Fran at home. The Jets have lost back to back games and up last week hadn’t lost back to back games in quite some time. As per this game, I would love to take the Jets here off back to back losses and who knows, they might cover and 65% of the public could be right. Having said that though, Losman makes his return here and this could be a game where he steps up for his squad. The line keeps going up and Buffalo does have revenge against this team as well. Why is it so hard to believe that Buffalo could come with some revenge, they come off back to back home losses but have also lost 6 of their last 7. For me, this game is no play. In part because Losman could take advantage of the situation and the Bills could be competitive with revenge, but I certainly would not want to go against the Jets who come off back to back losses and will look to avoid losing 3 in a row for the first this year and the Jets are due for a breakout due to the frustration over the last two games.
Steelers vs. Ravens
Ravens sit as a -2 point favorite which I’m sure Pitt is aware of and the total sits at 34.5. This is a big game for both teams as they very well could meet in the playoffs. But, having said that, I would never want to test the chip on the Steelers shoulder for being placed as a dog here. Remember, the Steelers went into New England and won 33-10 as a 1 point dog. This team has won their last 4 games and 5 of 6. Heck, they covered at Jacksonville, Cincy, Washington and New England. Baltimore however has covered their last 7 of 8 including defeating the Redskins, Eagles and Raiders over their last 3 home games and easily covering the spread. Having said that, the Ravens come off a very big win on Sunday Night Football and this will be a tough spread for them to cover coming off a national television game such as that. I know the Ravens have revenge, but I actually lean a bit on the Steelers to win this game outright. I think a 1.5 unit play on the ML is worth the risk here.
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Note, that Ferotte is listed as doubtful for this game and it seems that Jackson will get the start in this all important game. Remember the Vikings come off a squeaker at Detroit and now hit the road to face the Cardinals. DT Allen is listed as probable for the Vikings and they have two more defensive lineman who are listed as possible depending on suspension situations and the league. I want to take the Cardinals very badly in this game, but this is also the biggest public play of the day as over 76% of the public backs the Cardinals here as Jackson stinks. Yet, such was the case when the Vikings were at New Orleans and all sorts of shadiness happened so that the Saints not only lost the cover but the game as well. The Vikings were the same team to win big at Jacksonville even though they didn’t look impressive against Detroit. This is a much more must win game for the Vikings as compared to the Cardinals who really have no competition in their division. I lean on the Cardinals as Warner’s potential for offense is far greater than Tarvaris Jackson who wouldn’t be good enough to start for the top 50 collegiate schools in the nation, nevertheless for the Vikings. But, having said that, how do you wager on a team that has over 76% of the public’s backing?
Patriots vs. Raiders
Note that Cassell is questionable after the death of his father. O’Connell would be the starter if Cassell does not play. If it is O’Connell that starts as compared to Cassell the line would move from down from NE -7 to NE -3.5. Speaking of public backing, the current consensus has the Patriots backed by over 80% in this game. I can easily see the Raiders getting up for this game as it is the Patriots but the Pats have had no trouble covering against the Dolphins on the road or at the Colts. This team was fortunate to defeat the Seahawks on the road however. Oakland comes off back to back losses including outright losses to the Chiefs and a burial at San Diego. It is important to this game obviously if Cassell starts as compared to O’Connell. Nevertheless, once again, tough to back any team that has the public backing of 80%.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Note that Jerry Jones basically called Marion Barber a sissy so I expect a strong game from Barber. And, why wouldn’t Jones do that? You wouldn’t expect anything less from a guy that is desperate to go back to the playoffs as he has shelled a lot of money out this year only to see Romo go out for a few games and now this team scratching and clawing against the Bucs and Falcons for the last two playoff spots. Running Back Jacobs is listed as questionable for the Giants while although Barber is listed as questionable, I am fairly confident he will play after being called out by the owner the previous week. Adam Jones is OUT for this game but considering he has stunk this year anyway and might be more of a distraction, this could be a good thing for this team. Well, this game can’t get any bigger for the Cowboys. This team is 8-5 and fighting for the playoffs. Thee Cowboys have revenge against the Giants from getting blown out earlier this year at NY when Johnson was the QB. The Cowboys have not lost back to back covers since Romo came back. If I’m not mistaken, the Giants have not lost back to back covers all year and they would love to be the reason why Dallas essentially is knocked out of the playoffs. After all, if the Falcons win against the Bucs and the Cowboys lose to the Giants, mark my words, Atlanta will go dancing. After all, the Cowboys would be a full game behind and then have to face the Ravens at home and Eagles on the road. The Falcons close with the Vikings on the road and the Rams at home and can go 1-1 and secure the playoff spot because the Falcons will likely have the better conference record. Remember, the Giants have a lot to prove as well as they have been taking a lot of heat for losing to the Eagles at home as many are openly questioning this receiving core of this team which I’m sure Coughlin has addressed in practice. I know it sounds a bit anti-climatic here but I lean on the Giants here on a bounce-back as that has been one of the best plays in all the NFL over the last two years. Heck, the Giants are 10-3 ATS this year and I just don’t think the Cowboys are all that – their offense is rock solid, their defense is highly questionable in my book but with Burress out I think this team does lose a big play threat downfield and note that Jacobs is banged up for this game for the Giants and is listed as questionable. Plus, Barber was called out last week so he will have a big game, no thanks, staying far away from this game.
Browns vs. Eagles
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Winslow is listed as doubtful. Well, the Eagles come off the biggest win of the season at the Giants and now face a 14 point spread. Lol. Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS over their last six games but did win at Buffalo outright earlier this year. Philly comes off back to back covers winning big against Arizona as well as the Giants on the road. I think the Eagles offense will put up around 30 to 35 points here but the question is what will the Eagles defense do as it relates to this cover. Once again, when you come off a big public win such as what the Eagles did, it is very tough to step up the next game against an inflated line and cover. This is Monday Night Football and remember what the Browns did last time on MNF – they defeated the Giants themselves outright at home as 9 point dogs. They were led by Anderson in that game much the same way when they defeated the Bengals on the road with Anderson. Stollworth faces his old team here and although Winslow is listed as doubtful for this game, this team still has Braylon Edwards and an up and coming tight end as well. Dorsey attempted nearly 45 pass attempts at Tennessee and this team I think did very admirably against the Titans. I lean on the Browns here but I just can’t go against the Eagles who are playing with a chip on their shoulder, in particular, McNabb is ever since he was called out and questioned openly by the media and made fun of because of the tie against the Bengals on the road. The public is on the over to a tune of 70% as well.
Sunday's Comp Selection:
#305. Detroit Lions +17 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm est).
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. But, the Lions have had solid success covering on the road and I like them here with Orlovsky as he is a much better player overall and I think the Lions will make it interesting and likely lose by 10-13 points here. It's enough for me to take a shot on them as my comp selection. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Steven Budin-CEO SUNDAY'S PICK 25 DIME
NEW YORK GIANTS
Note From Steve Budin:
This price has been +3 across the board almost the entire week.
If you have New York +3, I suggest you buy up the 1/2 point to +3 1/2 so you get the win should New York only lose by three.
If for some reason you get New York at +2 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy up the 1/2 point to +3 so you get the push should New York only lose by a field goal.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself
NEW YORK GIANTS
Note From Steve Budin:
This price has been +3 across the board almost the entire week.
If you have New York +3, I suggest you buy up the 1/2 point to +3 1/2 so you get the win should New York only lose by three.
If for some reason you get New York at +2 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy up the 1/2 point to +3 so you get the push should New York only lose by a field goal.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself
Ferrall - paid plays(confirmed)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK:
BALTIMORE -2.5 to Pittsburgh
JETS -7.5 to Bills
INDY -17 to Lions
WASHINGTON -7 to Cincy
BEST BETS OTHERWISE:
MIAMI -6.5 to 49ers
CAROLINA -7.5 to Denver
ARIZONA -3 to Minnesota
NEW ENGLAND -7 to Oakland
TOP UPSETS (PLENTY OF THEM THIS WEEK):
KC +6 from San Diego
HOUSTON +3 from Tennessee
ST.LOUIS +2.5 from Seattle
TAMPA +3 from Atlanta
JACKSONVILLE +2.5 from Green Bay
Ferrall sunday night (confirmed)
1st HALF: DALLAS -1
GAME SPREAD: DALLAS -3
GAME TOTAL: OVER 45
PLAYS OF THE WEEK:
BALTIMORE -2.5 to Pittsburgh
JETS -7.5 to Bills
INDY -17 to Lions
WASHINGTON -7 to Cincy
BEST BETS OTHERWISE:
MIAMI -6.5 to 49ers
CAROLINA -7.5 to Denver
ARIZONA -3 to Minnesota
NEW ENGLAND -7 to Oakland
TOP UPSETS (PLENTY OF THEM THIS WEEK):
KC +6 from San Diego
HOUSTON +3 from Tennessee
ST.LOUIS +2.5 from Seattle
TAMPA +3 from Atlanta
JACKSONVILLE +2.5 from Green Bay
Ferrall sunday night (confirmed)
1st HALF: DALLAS -1
GAME SPREAD: DALLAS -3
GAME TOTAL: OVER 45
