Randall the Handle
Rams (3-5) at Cardinals (7-1)
LINE: ARIZONA BY 7
If you think St. Louis’ upset win in San Francisco will somehow springboard this team into relevance, think again. The Rams displayed their usual, inadequate offence that tallied a paltry 105 yards passing and less than 100 yards of rushing. QB Austin Davis threw for a touchdown (more of a hitch and run for a touchdown) but tossed two interceptions. St. Louis caught the 49ers flat footed and clumsy. That bodes well for this play. Is it not safe to say that Arizona is clearly a better team than San Francisco right now? At very worse, equal? If so, how were the Niners a 10½-point choice when hosting this same visitor a week ago but the legitimate Cards, the only team sporting just one loss on the year, are just a seven-point pick here? Bruce Arians has his team playing at a high level. People forget that these Cardinals were 10-6 a year ago but missed the playoffs. They have won 14 of their past 17 games. Now they’ll play a division weakling that is travelling on consecutive weeks and arrives here sporting the 29t-ranked defence in the NFL. The Rams are hurting both offensively and defensively. Arizona won’t have a hard time taking advantage.
TAKING: CARDINALS –7
Giants (3-5) at Seahawks (5-3)
LINE: SEATTLE by 10
The Giants have been in prime time games four times already this season. They lost three of those games by a combined 64 points. In the public’s eye, they rank with the bottom feeders and bettors are not anxious to get behind them. That, along with Seattle still perceived as a powerhouse has inflated this pointspread. It all works for us. This is not the same Seahawks teams that beat the Giants 23-0 in December of last season, before winning the Super Bowl. Seattle is having trouble on its offensive line and its passing game ranks 31st in a league of 32. Seeing that defence is the Giants’ biggest issue, this matchup could go well for the visitors as they won’t have a Colts, Cowboys or Eagles offence (New York’s past three opponents) to deal with. Seattle’s defence remains decent but it is not the ball hawking unit from a year ago either. Comparing the Seahawks’ first eight games from last season, they are down 11 takeaways and 15 sacks at same halfway point. Seattle’s past two home games had them losing to Dallas and beating the Raiders by six points. Spotting double digits is giving current group unwarranted respect.
TAKING: GIANTS +10
Bears (3-5) at Packers (5-3)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 7½
The Bears have been less than tame lately, losing four of five before their week off including a 38-17 drubbing at home to these Packers. Not exactly the best scenario for Chicago to suddenly become The Avengers. However, we’re not so sure that Green Bay isn’t being overrated, especially in a divisional tilt. The Bears actually have the higher ranked offence in both passing and running. Defensively, things aren’t much different as Chicago has allowed less yards overall while Green Bay has the worst run stopping unit in the league. In that first meeting, it was a pair of Jay Cutler blunders that opened the door to the lopsided score but we can’t ignore the inability of the Packers defence. The Bears ran for 235 yards in that game, an incredible number considering that the game had blown open, forcing Chicago to go airborne. We won’t ignore Chicago’s defensive woes, of which there are plenty, but taking better than a touchdown to an opponent we’ve seen get chewed up by other potent offences is a sensible way to go. Bears have fared better on the road than home this year and the visitor is on a current 4-0 run versus the spread in this rivalry.
TAKING: BEARS +7½
Dolphins (5-3) at Lions (6-2)
LINE: DETROIT by 3
Folks are unaccustomed to the Lions having a top-rated defence but we’re not completely sold yet. The only winning team that Detroit has defeated were division foe Packers. It was just before their break that these Leos had to fight back from 21-0 to sneak by the lowly Falcons on a last second re-kick. Don’t get us wrong, Detroit is a formidable opponent but prefer to side with an ascending Miami squad that finds itself in a groove. These fishies have a very good defence, an unheralded pass rush and QB Ryan Tannehill is leading an offence that has scored at least 24 points in five straight games. Tannehill has also posted outstanding passer ratings in three of his past five games.
TAKING: DOLPHINS +3
Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (5-3)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 1½
Kyle Orton has won three of four starts since taking over for E.J. Manuel last month. He’s found a rhythm with WR Sammy Watkins as the pair have hooked up for 281 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo’s past two games. The Chiefs are on a roll but road favourites at this venue have frequently left town with an increase in their loss column. The Bills have had the luxury of two weeks to prepare for this home contest and they’ve been successful as a lesser team, currently on an 8-3 ATS mark after their rest week. With similar styles, cautious ball control and equal records, this one figures to be close. That being the case, taking home points with the undervalued, underappreciated Bills is the value play.
TAKING: BILLS +1½
49ers (4-4) at Saints (4-4)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 5
It’s tough to fade the Saints at the Superdome, with 20 straight wins there and failing to cover just once. However, while San Francisco’s offence is in a terrible funk, its defence remains stingy. It’s never a bad thing to be taking significant points with a No. 2 overall defence, one that is ranked second in passing yards allowed and fifth in run yards. The 49ers made a visit here last year and lost by three on the final play of the game. While New Orleans has won consecutive games, we just can’t ignore earlier losses to the Falcons and Browns. Also, teams that suffered straight up losses after being favoured by 10 or more and are underdogs in subsequent game, have covered 10 of past 12 times this occurred.
TAKING: 49ers +5
Titans (2-6) at Ravens (5-4)
LINE: BALTIMORE by 9½
The Ravens are back home after losing two important divisional road games, so expect them to be all business for this one, as they’ve suddenly sunk to the basement of their tight AFC North division. The last three visitors to M&T Bank Stadium have all been soundly defeated, none of them coming within 19 points of their unwelcoming hosts. The Titans fit right in as they are a talentless bunch and now will have rookie QB Zack Mettenberger making his first road start. Before Ben Roethlisberger ripped this Baltimore secondary with six passing touchdowns, the Ravens had allowed the least amount of passing TD’s in the league. Facing this popgun offence, things should revert back, at least for this day.
TAKING: RAVENS –9½
Steelers (6-3) at Jets (1-8)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 5
It almost feels irresponsible backing the Jets here in their current form but this is the NFL, which stands for No Free Lunch and nothing is this easy. Yes, the Steelers have been terrifyingly awesome these past two weeks with Ben Roethlisberger throwing for six touchdowns in each game. However, Pittsburgh’s current three-game win streak was on their own turf and prior to the home stand, they had dropped a 31-10 decision at Cleveland after barely getting by the dreadful Jaguars 17-9. QB Michael Vick gives the Jets a better chance to win than Geno Smith did and under Vick’s guidance last week, the Jets actually outgained the Chiefs. Vick also developed chemistry with Percy Harvin, finding the talented receiver 11 times for 129 yards.
TAKING: JETS +5
Falcons (2-6) at Buccaneers (1-7)
LINE: ATLANTA by 1½
Must we? Last time these two hooked up, it was over before the first TV commercial aired as Atlanta coasted to a 56-14 thumping of the Bucs. But that was in Atlanta and while winning there is becoming less common these days, the Falcons lone road win in the past year and half occurred in Toronto against the Bills. Also in that first meeting, Tampa was without two of its better defenders with Gerald McCoy and Mason Foster both missing. QB Josh McCown returns as the starter after healing from an injury and while he may be a modest thrower at best, he certainly gives his side a better chance to win than Mike Glennon did. Bucs have something to prove here. Not so sure the Falcons can say the same.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +1½
Broncos (6-2) at Raiders (1-8)
LINE: DENVER by 11
After being shown who is boss in their loss at New England, we could find the Broncos in an angry mood. But even so, Denver is still required to play back-to-back away games and they have another one on deck. That’s not the best scheduling arrangement for spotting double-digit road points, a bankroll killer at the best of times. The Raiders have to be feeling a bit better about themselves after closing to within six points at Seattle after trailing 24-3 at halftime. QB Derek Carr is coming along nicely and he’ll have his guys fighting to the end, maybe finding a back door like they did last week.
TAKING: RAIDERS +11
Panthers (3-5-1) at Eagles (6-2)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 6½
QB Nick Foles wasn’t playing so well. Mark Sanchez came in last game and did a decent job in relief. Players are happy with Sanchez. Yadda yadda yadda. He’s Mark Sanchez and when the heat is on, he’s like a snowman in a sauna. More importantly, he causes turnovers (two intercepts last week) and the Eagles are a team that already sits at a disturbing minus-10 in giveaway/takeaways. The Panthers will be anxious to welcome back three offensive lineman that had been out with injury, clearly affecting QB Cam Newton and Carolina’s run game. The Eagles have the same issues, this week starting their sixth O-line combination and now with Sanchez back there, giving away these points can’t be recommended.
TAKING: PANTHERS +6½
Cowboys (6-3) vs. Jaguars (1-8) @ London, England
