VegasButcher - NFL Late Play
Arizona Cardinals -7
Here’s how the Rams have performed lately: blowout loss to SF, win against Seattle, blowout loss @ KC, win at SF. A blowout loss has been followed by a very strong effort in the following week. So now, STL is coming off another huge upset, this time on the road, and facing the team with a best record in the NFC the following week. Are we to expect a let-down? Quiet possibly. This is Rams’ 3rd straight road game. They lost their best WR Brian Quick for the season, which will make it even tougher to face Arizona’s stout secondary. And overall, I just think this is a big let-down spot for St Louis. My model has Cardinals at -10 in this game so there’s value on them from my perspective.
Arizona Cardinals -7
Here’s how the Rams have performed lately: blowout loss to SF, win against Seattle, blowout loss @ KC, win at SF. A blowout loss has been followed by a very strong effort in the following week. So now, STL is coming off another huge upset, this time on the road, and facing the team with a best record in the NFC the following week. Are we to expect a let-down? Quiet possibly. This is Rams’ 3rd straight road game. They lost their best WR Brian Quick for the season, which will make it even tougher to face Arizona’s stout secondary. And overall, I just think this is a big let-down spot for St Louis. My model has Cardinals at -10 in this game so there’s value on them from my perspective.
VegasButcher - NBA 18-12 Overall
Utah Jazz +3.5
The Jazz are 3-3 ATS but played HOU, DAL (twice), PHX, LAC, CLE. They have had three DD losses, but those came against DAL and HOU, two teams that rank top-10 in Offensive Efficiency. Detroit ranks 22nd there and 29th in eFG%. In addition, this team lost to a bad DEN team, to MIN, got creamed by BKN, barely held on at home against NYK playing on a b2b and barely beat MIL in their last game. The difference in the SOS’s is huge in this matchup and I think that will be evident here. Utah is a better team and I’ll grab the points with them in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5
The effort out of OKC’s players is commendable, and that is exactly why I’m making this play. These guys almost beat the Clippers with Westbrook leaving in the 2nd quarter, stayed with the Raptors at Toronto for pretty much the whole game, and then almost upset the Grizz at home last time out. These guys are playing hard. Kings are also playing extremely well but they are coming off a hard-fought double OT win @ Phoenix. In addition, OKC has the front-court depth and size to play Cousins tough, limiting him effectiveness tonight. Throw in the fact that Rudy Gay is very questionable with an illness, and this is a prime opportunity for the Thunder to grab their 2nd win, in front of their home fans.
Charlotte Bobcats -3
Bobcats rank 4th in Defensive Efficiency, while Lakers are dead last, and by a mile. In addition, MKG is back for the Bobcats which only makes this team better. I know Lakers had 4-days off prior to this game but they’re facing a playoff team tonight and at this short number I got to take a bite.
Utah Jazz +3.5
The Jazz are 3-3 ATS but played HOU, DAL (twice), PHX, LAC, CLE. They have had three DD losses, but those came against DAL and HOU, two teams that rank top-10 in Offensive Efficiency. Detroit ranks 22nd there and 29th in eFG%. In addition, this team lost to a bad DEN team, to MIN, got creamed by BKN, barely held on at home against NYK playing on a b2b and barely beat MIL in their last game. The difference in the SOS’s is huge in this matchup and I think that will be evident here. Utah is a better team and I’ll grab the points with them in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5
The effort out of OKC’s players is commendable, and that is exactly why I’m making this play. These guys almost beat the Clippers with Westbrook leaving in the 2nd quarter, stayed with the Raptors at Toronto for pretty much the whole game, and then almost upset the Grizz at home last time out. These guys are playing hard. Kings are also playing extremely well but they are coming off a hard-fought double OT win @ Phoenix. In addition, OKC has the front-court depth and size to play Cousins tough, limiting him effectiveness tonight. Throw in the fact that Rudy Gay is very questionable with an illness, and this is a prime opportunity for the Thunder to grab their 2nd win, in front of their home fans.
Charlotte Bobcats -3
Bobcats rank 4th in Defensive Efficiency, while Lakers are dead last, and by a mile. In addition, MKG is back for the Bobcats which only makes this team better. I know Lakers had 4-days off prior to this game but they’re facing a playoff team tonight and at this short number I got to take a bite.
