Service Plays Sunday 11/30/08

[bktoy97]

Cappers access
t bay
clev
minn

 

[ymmit2nd]

North coast

nfl total pow
sf/buf over 43

 

[ymmit2nd]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NHL:

1* Rangers -1.5 +130

NBA:

2* Pistons -3

NFL:

2* Tampa Bay Bucs -4
2* Steelers +1
2* Chiefs/Raiders over 41
2* Broncos/Jets over 47
3* Packers -3
3* Steelers/Patriots over 39

 

[patriots12]

NYJ or NYG?

Giants 24-13

 

[Confession.pt3]

Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet398 WAS 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 397 NYG
Analysis: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. I'll take the points but I look for an inspired effort by the revenge-minded Skins and for them to hand the Giants just their second loss of the season.

404 CLE 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 403 IND
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND.

402 CIN 7.0 (-105) Bodog vs 401 BAL
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Computer Plays

23-12-1 65.71%



Another 2-1 week last week...love this card.

Emotional factors working for us here...big time.
Good luck!
NFL Sunday, November 30


1:00 PM ET Green Bay -3



1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -4


8:15 PM ET Chicago +3.5


23-12-1 65.71%

 

[Hap]

Handicapper: Tony Karpinski
Cornell vs. Indiana U (NCAAB) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-105 Cornell Play Title: 10* College Hoops Game of the Month
I like Cornell to get a big win against the Big Ten.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Denver Broncos (+9) at New York Jets

Power Rating Projection:

New York Jets 29 Denver Broncos 19
Statistical Projections

Denver Broncos 21

Rushing Yards: 82
Passing Yards: 267
Turnovers: 2 New York Jets 29

Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Jets 35 Denver Broncos 26


San Francisco 49ers (+6½) at Buffalo Bills

Power Rating Projection:

Buffalo Bills 29 San Francisco 49ers 22
Statistical Projections

San Francisco 49ers 20

Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 3 Buffalo Bills 23

Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Buffalo Bills 37 San Francisco 49ers 30


New Orleans Saints (+3½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Power Rating Projection:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 New Orleans Saints 20
Statistical Projections

New Orleans Saints 26

Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 291
Turnovers: 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 260
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 23

Angle: Short Preparation Week [Teams playing with less than a full week of preparation time ]
Go against New Orleans Saints ( Underdog (or PK) on the road, Covered at home in previous game, 16-26, 38.1% )
Historical trend: Take New Orleans Saints ( Domination by underdog, 10-4, 71.4% )

Carolina Panthers (+3) at Green Bay Packers

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 24 Carolina Panthers 19
Statistical Projections

Carolina Panthers 20

Rushing Yards: 138
Passing Yards: 164
Turnovers: 2 Green Bay Packers 23

Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 218
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 30 Carolina Panthers 17
Green Bay Packers (1 star)


New York Giants (-3½) at Washington Redskins

Power Rating Projection:

New York Giants 25 Washington Redskins 19
Statistical Projections

New York Giants 26

Rushing Yards: 161
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 1 Washington Redskins 18

Rushing Yards: 127
Passing Yards: 207
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Giants 27 Washington Redskins 21


Miami Dolphins (-8½) at St Louis Rams

Power Rating Projection:

Miami Dolphins 27 St Louis Rams 19
Statistical Projections

Miami Dolphins 30

Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 298
Turnovers: 1 St Louis Rams 18

Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 240
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Miami Dolphins 33 St Louis Rams 24

Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Miami Dolphins ( No additional conditions, 50-71-3, 41.3% )

Baltimore Ravens (-6½) at Cincinnati Bengals

Power Rating Projection:

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 18
Statistical Projections

Baltimore Ravens 24

Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 187
Turnovers: 2 Cincinnati Bengals 14

Rushing Yards: 76
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Historical trend: Take Baltimore Ravens ( Domination by favorite, 12-5, 70.6% )

Indianapolis Colts (-4½) at Cleveland Browns

Power Rating Projection:

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 21
Statistical Projections

Indianapolis Colts 25

Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 285
Turnovers: 1 Cleveland Browns 21

Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 204
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 24 Cleveland Browns 23


Atlanta Falcons (+5) at San Diego Chargers

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 23 Atlanta Falcons 18
Statistical Projections

Atlanta Falcons 22

Rushing Yards: 135
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 1 San Diego Chargers 24

Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 23 Atlanta Falcons 17


Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at New England Patriots

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 19
Statistical Projections

Pittsburgh Steelers 22

Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 252
Turnovers: 1 New England Patriots 18

Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 194
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Pittsburgh Steelers
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 18 Pittsburgh Steelers 17


Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Oakland Raiders

Power Rating Projection:

Oakland Raiders 19 Kansas City Chiefs 18
Statistical Projections

Kansas City Chiefs 19

Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 223
Turnovers: 2 Oakland Raiders 19

Rushing Yards: 140
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oakland Raiders 14 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Historical trend: Take Kansas City Chiefs ( Domination by visiting team, 13-3-1, 81.3% )

Chicago Bears (+3½) at Minnesota Vikings

Power Rating Projection:

Minnesota Vikings 19 Chicago Bears 18
Statistical Projections

Chicago Bears 20

Rushing Yards: 78
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 2 Minnesota Vikings 18

Rushing Yards: 110
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Chicago Bears
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings 14 Chicago Bears 13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

NEW ENGLAND –1 over Pittsburgh PINNACLE

Put pressure on Big Ben and he instantly becomes a very ordinary QB. The Patriots possess one of the best pass rushes in the league and they’ll make life miserable for this average offense. The Steelers have beaten a bunch of non-playoff teams that include Cincinnati, Houston, Cleveland, Jacksonville and San Diego by a point but when they played some playoff bound teams they lost. They were dominated by the Eagles early in the year and they lost to both the G-Men and the Colts. They have one notable road win this year against the Redskins but Washington’s stock has been on the decline for about a month now. The Patriots are coming on big time and now Matt Cassels looks as good as any QB out there. He’s thrown for 400+ yards in consecutive weeks and not many QB’s in the history of this game can make that claim. Cassels is playing with a ton of confidence and the receivers are now right behind him. He can also scramble, which gives the offense an even better look. New England at home laying a point feels so right against an offense that simply cannot keep pace. Play: New England –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).



Atlanta +1.83 over SAN DIEGO PINNACLE

Norv Turner and the whole Charger team just find ways to lose and they’re not very good to begin with. Have you ever witnessed a more inept coach then Turner because I sure haven’t. Last week against Indy he challenged an 8-yard completed pass in the first quarter on first and 10. Regardless of whether he was right or wrong, the challenge was useless and meant absolutely nothing at that point in the game. If it were overturned it would have been 2cd and 10. Big fu***en deal. You challenge on big plays Norm. You challenge in the fourth quarter with the game on the line Norv. You don’t challenge on a first and 10 in the first quarter on an eight-yard completion. Anyway, the Chargers are a mess. Mentally, this team is elsewhere and one must question how they’ll come out this week after losing again last week in a must-win game. What I do know is the Dirty Birds are getting better with each passing week but they’re still off everyone’s radar. They have a bruising and explosive running game, a great defense, an efficient and getting better with each game QB and most of all, they’re a team that can’t wait to get back out there and play together. The Falcons are about 100 times more dangerous and focused then the under-achieving and pathetic Chargers. Norv Turner has ruined another team. Keep the points. Play: Atlanta +1.83 (Risking 2 units).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Houston -3 vs Jacksonville

Single Plays

Indy -5 vs Cleveland
Denver +7.5 vs NY Jets
Oakland -3 vs KC
NY Giants -3.5 vs Washington
Green Bay -3 vs Carolina
Buffalo/San Francisco Over 42.5
NY Jets/Denver Under 47.5
Houston/Jacksonville Over 48.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

** NFL NEWSLETTERS PLAYS

HOT


LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (8-2)....NEW ENG
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (6-3-2)....NY GIANTS
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1-1)....
THE GOLD SHEET (21-15)... TENN ( W ) .... INDY ....SF/BUFFALO OVER
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (18-6) ...TAMPA ..GREENBAY....SD
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (16-10-1)... WASH ...OAK




COLD


ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (4-7)...NY GIANTS
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (7-12)... CAROLINA...NEW ENG
LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (21-31)... Tennessee/Detroit UNDER 44 ½ ....Arizona/Philadelphia OVER 46 ½ ....Denver/N Y Jets OVER 47 ½ ...N Y Giants/Washington UNDER 42
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 36 ½ ....Kansas City/Oakland UNDER 41 ½ ....Chicago/Minnesota OVER 42 ½ .....Jacksonville/Houston OVER 48

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (7-9-1).. BALTY
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (24-34-1) ...
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (8-11-1)... PITT
...



THE REST

BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (7-6).. ATL
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (0-0)...
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-6)..
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1-1)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-3)... ST LOUIS
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (6-7-1).... J’VILLE-HOUSTON “OVER”
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)... DENVER
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (15-16-1).. DENVER....SD...MINNY
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (7-7)... DENVER
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (8-7)... PHILLY ( W)
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (6-6)... CINCI
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (6-3).. PITT
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (5-4-1).. BALTY
POINTWISE 1* (0-0)...
POINTWISE 2* (2-3)... BALTY
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (19-16-1)... CLEVE...SD.....NEW ENGLAND
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (14-13-2).... CINCI...NY GIANTS...INDY
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-1)....
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (1-3).... DENVER
THE RED SHEET 89* (1-0)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-3).. KC / OAK OVER
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (9-11)... BALTY...PITTT

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dominic Brando Sports Sunday/Monday NFL Week 13 High Volume Program Report #1:

NFL Special 150 Unit Executive Max Out: #413 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-125 over Houston Texans
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #394 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3/-130 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #396 GREEN BAY PACKERS -2/-125 over Carolina Panthers
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #397 NEW YORK GIANTS -3/-115 over Washington Redskins
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #405 ATLANTA/SAN DIEGO GAME TOTAL UNDER 50/-130
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #408 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS PICK/-115 over Pittsburgh Steelers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly GreenSheet

5* Pitt
4* Balt
3* KC
2* J'ville
1* Giants

RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (+1) over New England
RATING 4 BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincinnati
RATING 3 KANSAS CITY (+3) over Oakland
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Houston
RATING 1 NY GIANTS (NL) over Washington


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2008
NY JETS (-9) Denver (47½) 3:15 PM
The Jets have delivered back-to-back huge wins over top level teams
but New York has been much less successful in the games that they
should win easily. The Jets have historically been terrible home favorites
and Denver is a team that seems to win when it is least expected. The
Broncos face long travel but own three road wins on the season and can
bounce back after last week’s disaster. JETS BY 4




BUFFALO (-7) San Francisco (42½) 12:00 PM
The Bills turned five turnovers into a 54-point effort last week as weeks
of frustration were unleashed on the Chiefs. Buffalo is still in the playoff
mix and this will be a critical game with the following three games away
from home. The 49ers could not hang with Dallas last week as the
running game has disappeared and cross country travel to a cold
weather venue could be problematic. BILLS BY 10




TAMPA BAY (NL) New Orleans 12:00 PM
The Bucs have impressed w ith the ability to rally back from deficits but it
is a dangerous line to walk. The Saints face a short week after Monday
night and New Orleans has not had great success in this series. Tampa
Bay lost the first meeting of the season in a very tight game and this
should be a critical game for the Bucs to deliver a big win and take
command in the NFC South. The Saints may finally get RB Bush back
but the Bucs are excellent against the pass. BUCCANEERS BY 13



GREEN BAY (NL) Carolina 12:00 PM
The Panthers are struggling on the road with the last three road games
against quality teams resulting in lopsided losses. The Packers face a
tight division race coming off a Monday night game and this is a critical
game for potential tie-breakers. Carolina’s defense is not the same away
from home and the Panthers will likely struggle in their first cold weather
game of the season. The Panthers have not lost consecutive games all
season long but this might be the spot for a team that could dissolve
after a hot start as the closing schedule is brutally tough with nothing but
playoff caliber teams remaining. PACKERS BY 7




NY Giants (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
The Redskins held on for a big win last week but recent wins have not
been impressive and the Redskins are struggling to score points, with an
average of just over 15 points per game over the last six contests. The
Giants have unquestionably been the best team in the league in recent
weeks, winning with ease for the most part through a very difficult midseason
schedule. The Giants dominated the first meeting between these
teams and New York has incredible S/U and ATS success in
Washington the past two decades. GIANTS BY 14




Miami (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Dolphins snapped a four-game winning streak in a game that was
much closer than the final result. The schedule ahead is still favorable
for Miami so the playoffs are definitely not out of the picture. The St.
Louis defense is in bad shape and the offense may be down to veteran
QB Green who threw four interceptions in relief last week. With no
running game and nothing to play for the Rams appear to be sunk and
Miami’s offense is capable of putting up a big number as the Dolphins
have covered in three straight road games. DOLPHINS BY 17



Baltimore (-7) CINCINNATI (36½) 12:00 PM
The Ravens offense did not have a great game last week but the scoring
chances were capitalized on, mistakes were avoided, and the defense
created big plays. Cincinnati has played respectably on defense in
recent weeks but the Bengals still own just one win on the year.
Baltimore has covered in just two of the last eight meetings in this
division series, including a narrow win earlier this year but the Bengals
can not be trusted to take care of the ball against the opportunistic
Baltimore defense that will shut down the run. RAVENS BY 13




Indianapolis (NL) CLEVELAND 12:00 PM
The Colts have climbed back into the playoff hunt with four consecutive
wins but Indianapolis has not been a strong road favorite. The QB
situation for the Browns is now unclear with Anderson coming back in
last week but the bottom line is the Browns scored only six points
against a lousy defense. The Browns have risen up to play well in some
of its biggest games as this will be a marquee match-up for a team with
a solid record in the home underdog role. COLTS BY 3




SAN DIEGO (NL) Atlanta 3:05 PM
The Falcons came up with a big division win last week but road success
has not yet occurred for this young team. The Chargers have lost four of
the last five games and at 4-7 things are looking bleak. The Chargers
defense has been marginal and the offense has not been able to
produce. The Chargers have lost both games against the NFC South
this season and the division continues to prove it may be the strongest in
the league. Atlanta can deliver the upset. FALCONS BY 3




NEW ENGLAND (-1) Pittsburgh (40) 3:15 PM
The Patriots delivered a big revenge win last week but the defense has
been a concern as Miami put up huge numbers against the Patriots.
Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the NFL and the Steelers have
had extra time to prepare for this game. Pittsburgh has not had success
in this series but they have been a good road team and a great
underdog. New England’s home field edge has been non- existent and
QB Cassel won’t have big numbers this week. STEELERS BY 10




OAKLAND (-3) Kansas City (41) 3:15 PM
The Raiders had a great performance last week but turnovers helped the
cause and the Raiders offense is still going to struggle to score. The
Kansas City defense has had many problems but last week’s lopsided
result was the result of the turnovers on offense. The Chiefs are moving
the ball and scoring points and should be the better team in this matchup
despite just one win on the year. CHIEFS BY 10



MINNESOTA (-3½) Chicago (41½) 7:15 PN
These teams combined for 89 points in the first meetings this season but
this should be a different type of game with both teams focused on
running the ball and stopping the run. Minnesota had just 226 yards of
offense last week and the Bears have shown the ability to shut down
running games. Chicago has struggled in this building however and the
Bears are facing a third consecutive week on the road. VIKINGS BY 7




MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2008
HOUSTON (-3) Jacksonville (48½) 7:35 PM
The Jaguars had a nightmare start last week with two early fumbles.
Jacksonville moved the ball effectively but could not make up the deficit.
Houston won last week despite scoring just 16 points but the Texans lost
to Jacksonville earlier this season and the Jaguars have actually won
three of the last four road games with two of those wins against playoff
contenders. Houston is 0-3 ATS the last three at home and the defense
can not be trusted, allowing nearly 27 points per game. JAGS BY 7

 

[ymmit2nd]

ATS LOCK
12 Giants -3
This play is reduced from 25 unit play!
6 Indy -4
4 Pitt +1 1/2
4 Minn -3
BB
3 Wake Forest

ATS FINANCIAL
4 N O +4 1/2
4 Over 47 Den/Jets
BB
3 Fresno St -7 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach


NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEW ENGLAND - 1 over Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh is rested following last Thursday''s win over Cincinnati and at 8-3 lead the AFC North by a game. The Patriots were impressive in gaining revenge at Miami last week, taking control in the second half of their 20 point win. QB Matt Cassel continues to impress and became the first New England QB to pass for over 400 yards in consecutive games last week as he's being given a greater part of the playbook. Pittsburgh has not been sharp on offense as QB Ben Roethlisberger continues to deal with a banged up shoulder. This is also a negative scheduling spot for the Steelers as they take to the road after 3 straight home games to face a team playing with confidence as they've overcome injuries on both sides of the football. The Pats are playing with need and they know how to win big games late in the season. As was the case last week, the price is cheap. New England wins 23-17.






Other Featured NFL Selections :

Denver + 8 over N Y JETS - Both teams were involved in underdog upset wins last week as the Jets knocked off unbeaten Tennessee while AFC West leading Denver was upset at home by lowly Oakland. The Jets have a potent offense that should exploit the Broncos' vulnerable defense. But Denver should also be able to put up points, making this a potential shootout. Off of the embarrassing home loss, the Broncos should play well and have won their last 2 road games straight up, as underdogs in Cleveland and Atlanta. At the same time the Jets could be susceptible to overconfidence following that win at Tennessee and the increasing talk among the fans and media in New York about a Jets/Giants Super Bowl. Not so fast. The Jets are clearly better than they were expected to be but they - and QB Brett Favre - are also vulnerable to week to week inconsistency. Just as the Broncos succumbed to overconfidence last week, look for the Jets to be sluggish here as they struggle for the win. They are the better team. N Y Jets win but by just 27-24.



SAN DIEGO - 5 over Atlanta - As much as Atlanta has exceeded the pre season expectations, San Diego has fallen that far short. Yet at 4-7 they can still catch Denver for the ARC West title and if they do make the Playoffs the Chargers have the talent to be factors. This is a poor scheduling spot for Atlanta with a pair of Division games on deck. They are also on the road for the first time in a month following 3 home games. The Chargers also have a pair of Division games on deck and are playing with greater need. They have beaten a pair of Playoff contenders at home -- New England and the Jets -- by double digits so we know the capability exists. It will be hard to argue against anyone who supports the Falcons as their stats match up favorably with San Diego's. Atlanta has played reasonably well on the road although their best efforts have come at home. San Diego is a very talented team, capable of breaking out against any foe. A win here and their hopes for the Playoffs remain alive. A loss and we can safely play against the Chargers the rest of the way. Look for a super effort from the Chargers' LaDanian Tomlinson as he faces his former backup Michael Turner (who is having the far better season). Unable to win the close games this season, San Diego can't afford to keep this one close and should be aggressive on both sides of the football. San Diego wins 31-17.



MINNESOTA - 3 over Chicago - Both teams are tied atop the NFC North at 6-5, just a game ahead of Green Bay in a Division likely to produce just one Playoff team. Chicago won a wild 48-41 game when the teams met in Chicago in mid October. Since that meeting the Vikes have won 3 of 4 with a ground game that has been resurgent. Minnesota has rushed for over 120 yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Chicago is playing their third straight road game while Minny is playing their only home game in a 5 week stretch, off of a pair of road games and with 2 more on deck. The teams are close statistically but the Vikes have edges both in rushing offense and rushing defense. They are also playing with tie breaker need, seeking to avoid a season sweep. They've won 5 of the last 6 at home against Chicago, all by 5 points or more. That, combined with the frenzied crowd on this Sunday night prime timer give the Vikes the intangibles edge as well. Minnesota wins 23-13.




Best of the NFL Totals

Tennessee/Detroit UNDER 44 ½
Arizona/Philadelphia OVER 46 ½
Denver/N Y Jets OVER 47 ½
N Y Giants/Washington UNDER 42
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 36 ½
Kansas City/Oakland UNDER 41 ½
Chicago/Minnesota OVER 42 ½ Jacksonville/Houston OVER 48

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


5 BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over Arizona by 14
Forget about sending you kid to school to get a major in the sports
agent market. There’s an immediate opening for a sports psychologist
in the greater Philadelphia area. Applicants should send their resumes
to the Eagles front offi ce, attention: Andy Reid. If there has ever been
a team with a more fragile psyche than these Birds we can’t remember
when. How a team with a Top 10 ranked offense and a Top 10 ranked
defense can be 5-5-1 on the season mystifi es players and shrinks alike.
Nonetheless, they are still alive and (barely) breathing in the NFC Wild
Card race. The bottom line is they need this game like macaroni needs
cheese. The clincher is Reid’s 16-2 ATS career mark in games in which
the Eagles are .500 or less on the season and playing off a SU and ATS
loss of more than 7 points! With the Cardinals sitting pretty atop the
NFC West Division perch, we’ll stay at home with these Turkeys, err
Eagles, here tonight. Velveeta!



4 BEST BET
Denver over NY JETS by 6
A tip of the sombrero to Brett Favre and the Flyboys. Not only did
they put a halt to Tennessee’s ten-game win skein, they maintained
the top spot in the AFC East, one of only two divisions in the league
that fi nds every member sporting a winning record. Today they host
the AFC West Division leading Broncos in a game in which both teams
do complete role reversals. And because of it, this game comes packed
with extra value. Not that Mike Shanahan needs it. That’s confi rmed by
his 5-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 3 points off a division loss with
the Broncos. Interestingly, teams who knock off a 10-0 or greater team
are just 1-3 SU and ATS in their next game when facing an opponent
off a loss. After soaring to new heights, look for the Jets to crash land
today



3 BEST BET
WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 7
This game depends on which pair of glasses you choose to look
through. Frontrunners alike see a defending champ out in front of the
pack, mowing down anything in their path en route to another ticket
to the Super Bowl. Others choose to focus in on a team mired in a
battle for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs with revenge against a team
with a fat three-game division lead. What we see is a team that plays
to the level of competition like clockwork. Under head coach Jim Zorn
the Skins are 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS against losing teams and 4-2 SU and
ATS against .500 or better opposition. In fact, they’ve gone toe-to-toe
against three undefeated teams and have won and covered all three
games. Tie that in to Tom Coughlin’s dismal 3-9 ATS career mark as a
division favorite in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including
1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS if his team scored 28 or more points in its previous
game, and just like that we can see clearly now





Thursday, November 27th
Tennessee over DETROIT by 10
It used to be the ole Butterball and the Lions went together like giblets
and gravy on Thanksgiving Day. Not so these days, however, as Detroit has
choked on the wishbone 5 of the last 6 Turkey Day games. And while they
dress up here today as a near-cousin to the infamous ‘Ugly Pig’, it’s an oinker
whose lost the bacon in 7 of 11 games this season. While the Titans are
6-0 ATS as road favorites against .333 or less opposition, they must right
themselves off their initial loss of the season just four days ago. Given the
fact that the seven teams who suffered their fi rst loss of the campaign after
starting 10-0 or better are just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) since 1980, it’s probably best
to pass this game by and load up on the pumpkin pie instead.



DALLAS over Seattle by 13
Another heinous holiday hookup fi nds the 2-win Seahawks taking on the
suddenly resurgent Cowboys in Big ‘D’ on Thanksgiving Day. Thursdays have
been good days for the Boys who are 15-5 ATS as chalk and 9-1 ATS when
facing losing teams. They are also 14-2 ATS as home favorites in November
against sub .500 squads. Before over-basting the bird, though, you should
know that Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in games off back-to-back losses when taking
on a .500 or greater opponent. After having been beaten like a ‘drum’ in the
stats (0-8) since the Bye Week, we’d like to ‘stick’ with the team playing the
better ball but with double-digit home favorites just 4-17 ATS this season,
we’ll load up instead on the whipped cream to go with the pumpkin pie and
sit back and watch.



BUFFALO over San Francisco by 7
This game is a contrast of form over function and it has us pulling out our hair.
For openers, the Bills have been ultra formful this season, going 4-0 SU and
ATS against sub .333 or less opponents and just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against
.333 or greater opponents. Toss in the West Coast woes when playing games
in Eastern Time Zones this season and this game looks like Buffalo wings for
everyone. The function we can’t overlook is the fact that the Niners own
both the better offense and the better defense in this contest. And we will
seldom, if ever, buck that. Your move.



TAMPA BAY over New Orleans by 3
A rematch from the season opener for both teams in which the Saints beat
the Bucs, 24-20, in New Orleans as 3-point favorites. It’s hard to overlook
the Saints’ recent 13-3 ATS mark as division roads dog of 3 or more points,
especially when they trail Tampa and Carolina by two full games in the NFC
South Division race. Then there’s the fact that teams off a Monday Night
performance in which they scored 49 or more points are 4-0 SU and ATS in
their next game since 1980. Given the fact that the Bucs have held 4 of their
last 5 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yardage, and with NFC South Division
teams now an eye-opening 20-2 SU and 16-5-1 ATS at home this season, we’ll
back off the pedal for the time being.



Carolina over GREEN BAY by 3
The Pack limps back to Lambeau off Monday night’s shellacking at New
Orleans having to not only lick their wounds but also overcome a bevy of
numbers in Carolina’s favor. The fi ve teams that have allowed 49 or more
points under the Monday night lights since 1980 are just 1-4 SU and ATS
in their very next game. To make matters worse, the Cheeseheads are 0-6
ATS as favorites after allowing 35 or more points when facing an opponent
off a loss. Carolina’s 16-1 ATS mark as a dog in non-division games against
an opponent that surrendered 28 or more points in its last game fi ts like a
glove.



Miami over ST. LOUIS by 3
The Dolphins obliged rather nicely on these pages in our 5* call on the
Patriots, leading the way to a 6-0 assault on our College and NFL side play
Best Bets last week. St. Louis, however, let us down on the Late Phones, when
Marc Bulger left the game against the Bears, rendering the Rams punchless.
The dilemma here is we’d love to fade the Fish in a role they’ve yet to cover
this year (0-4 ATS as favorites) but without knowing Bulger’s status we’re
landlocked. Our best guess is that Miami’s 0-11 ATS mark as a favorite in
games off a loss will fi nd us residing under the Arch by kickoff.



Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 1
When the Bengals dropped their season opener at Baltimore, 17-10, as 2-
point road favorites this year it sent them into an 8-game winless skein. For
all intents and purposes their season was fi nished before it even began. For
the Ravens, it signaled the start of the Joe Flacco era and the rookie has not
disappointed. He’s 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in division play. Today, the roles have
changed as Flacco goes out as a road favorite for the fi rst time in his young
NFL career. That could be a problem. Looking at Balto’s 0-5 ATS mark as road
favorites before back-to-back home games and Cincinnati’s 6-1 ATS record
under Marvin Lewis against division opponents off a double-digit victory, we
wouldn’t be surprised in the least should the Bengals repay the Black Birds.



Indianapolis over CLEVELAND by 3
Colts’ recent emergence has them back in the playoff picture and that is
not a good thing for fellow post-season aspirants. The problem here today
is that they just got the game they wanted, a playoff revenge win at San
Diego last week, and they’ll now be going outdoors on the shores of Lake
Erie the fi nal week of November. The latter is never a good place for climatecontrolled
(read: dome) teams to be. While the Browns have seen another
season fritter away, the fact of the matter is they’ve had a few moments
this season (beat the Giants and won at Buffalo two weeks ago as puppies).
Don’t discount their chances here today, especially against a Colts squad that
is 0-4 SU and ATS as road favorites in games off a SU underdog win. We’ll
likely be ordering up a Brownie sundae here today.



SAN DIEGO over Atlanta by 1
Yee gads. Had these two teams met on opening week of the 2008 season
the Chargers would likely have been AT LEAST 14-point favorites! Here it is
12 weeks later and the number has been more than sawed in half. Does that
spell value for the beaten and bruised Bolts or is it a ‘buy sign’ for the highfl
ying Falcons? We vote for the latter as underdogs with better offenses and
better defenses are certainly our cup of tea. Can’t dismiss the fact that the
Dirty Birds are 6-0 ATS as dogs in November against opponents off back-toback
defeats. Until San Diego gets its act back in order – and that may never
happen as long as Norv Turner roams the sidelines in La Jolla – we have
to take advantage of a team playing on name and reputation against an
opponent that’s fl at-out playing.



Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND by 3
Another possible playoff preview kicks off in Foxborough where the Patriots
return home off last week’s revenge romp over Miami to host the Steelers.
While New England has held the upper hand in this series, covering the
number in 7 of the last 8 meetings, it’s the Steel City crew that brings a
tough-as-nails top-ranked defense into this fray. It’s also Bill Belichick that
brings an 0-3 ATS career mark into this contest when playing off a SU division
revenge win in which his team covered the line by more than 17 points. Rest
assured Patriot QB Matt Cassel will NOT toss for more than 400 yards for the
3rd straight game against this defense. Grab the points.



OAKLAND over Kansas City by 1
Do you see what we see? Oakland as a favorite? Yikes! The truth of the
matter is there is no way on God’s green earth the Chiefs warrant being
favored to any team in this league. They tried it once this season (against
these Raiders) and lost the game straight-up, 23-8. Oakland assumes the role
for the fi rst time in 2008 after having gone 0-9 ATS laying points since 2005
(1-8 SU). Not surprisingly, the Black-n-Silver is 2-15 ATS as divisional home
chalk. Considering that the visiting team in this series is 10-0 ATS, you know
what we have to do here. Yes, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet
and JUST DO IT.



MINNESOTA over Chicago by 7
This week’s Sunday night fi ght fi nds the Vikings hosting the Bears in a NFC
North division duel of 1st place foes in the Metrodome. Minny lost a shootout
fi ve weeks ago, a game in which they actually outgained Chicago, 439-327.
While the team trends come largely in the Bears favor, the stats back up
Minnesota as they own the better offense and the better defense. Until last
week’s win over the quarterback-less Rams, Chicago had been outgained in
each of its previous six contests. Playing in their 3rd straight road game, we
see Da Bears going into the dumper here tonight



Monday, December 1st
HOUSTON over Jacksonville by 6
On the surface this certainly looks like the right spot to ask the Jaguars to
snap their losing ways. The problem, though, is they are playing rotten
football while the Texans are still fl ying under the radar, having outgained
8 of their last 9 opponents. Houston has also been the breadwinner in this
series, going 7-2 ATS the last 9 games, including 5-1 ATS as a host. Toss in a
measure of revenge from a 30-27 overtime loss earlier this year and it will be
no surprise to us when Jack drops to 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday night
appearances. Houston, we’ve got no problem with you.






NFL TOTALS

3* Bengals
4*UNDER Bills OVER
5*Jets UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS


(BAL #24vs CIN #21 CIN #32 vs BAL #2) BAL’s defense & special teams once again came up big as they
forced PHI to bench McNabb for the 1st time in his career. While CIN has 3 extra days rest they have a slew
of injuries on both sides of the ball & lost any momentum from the JAX/PHI games in the loss to PIT. PP gives
BAL a convincing 347-186 yd edge here & we’ll side with a more physical defense & rush attack here.
4★ RAVENS 28 BENGALS 10


(SEA #31 vs DAL #8 DAL #10 vs SEA #28) DAL started off slow vs SF down 6-0 in the 1Q but reality set
in & they outgained SF 388-145 over the fi nal 3Q. DAL is 5-2 ATS on Thanksgiving & have won the L/2 by
a 32-7 margin. SEA is off an emotional game vs former QB Coach Zorn & several other assistants & now
have to travel on a short week with an undersized speed defense vs a very large offense. PP gives DAL a
432-207 yd edge & the stats rankings back it up for a decent play here.
3★ COWBOYS 30 SEAHAWKS 14



DEN #3 vs NYJ #13 NYJ #11 vs DEN #29) The Jets come in off 2 quality wins vs NE & TEN & have a rather
easy slate the rest of the way. DEN beat an inconsistent CLE team & upset ATL only to give away a game
to OAK. While PP only forecasts a 428-334 yd edge the Jets have a big spec teams edge & TO edge here.
Both the side & total are attractive plays here & the early forecast is favorable to both.
3★ JETS 40 BRONCOS 16
3★ JETS/BRONCOS: OVER


NYG #5 vs WAS #3 WAS #13 vs NYG #5) The Giants deactivated RB Jacobs (knee) & pulled WR Burress
(hamstring) early vs ARZ. The defense kept the pressure on Warner all day & converted 2 TO’s into 10
pts & their special teams gave them an avg start at the NYG 44. WAS struggled to put away SEA LW &
RB Portis is only at 75% right now & their best DL DE Carter may miss. PP gives WAS the yardage edge
but the Giants are the proven better talented team here & the play.
3★ GIANTS 26 REDSKINS 14

(TEN #23 vs DET #31 DET #28 vs TEN #7) DET blew a 17-0 1Q lead vs TB LW & gave up 35 straight points.
DET was outgained 245-93 over the fi nal 3Q & its very possible that this game won’t be sold out. They catch an
angry TEN team off its 1st loss on a short week. PP only gives a 346-301 yd edge here & while 1 loss doesn’t
wipe out 10 wins the stats don’t refl ect the talent difference here which keeps this from being stronger.
1★ TITANS 31 LIONS 16



(MIA #8 vs STL #30 STL #29 vs MIA #19) STL is back to playing at the same level they were under Linehan
& were outFD’d 14-5 & outgained 267-62 at the end of the 1H down 24-3. The don’t have a home edge &
could be without RB Jackson (0-8 SU & 2-6 w/o him), LT Pace & QB Bulger (concussion) here. MIA played
a good game vs NE LW despite the score & take a huge step down here. PP only gives MIA a 21 yd edge
here who are an AF for the 1st time in 2 years here. MIA is the better team with playoff hopes while STL has
packed it in & the road team is worth a small play.
1★ DOLPHINS 27 RAMS 19

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

4*NY Giants over WASHINGTON - WAS was in a bad spot in the 1st meeting with a rookie HC, a young QB in a new system & on the road vs a division rival that was celebrating its Super Bowl win on National TV. The Giants won 16-7 as a 4.5 pt HF but it should have been much worse (354-209 yd edge) as they settled for 1 TD & 3 FG’s on their 1st 4 drives which went inside the WAS 30. The Giants are 14-2 ATS on the road incl playoffs. WAS is 5-11-1 ATS at home. There are 7 common foes with the Giants going 6-1 SU & ATS with a 380-278 yd edge & 33-20 avg score. WAS is 5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS with a 331-264 yd edge & 18-18 avg score. The Giants have a big advantage with a healthier & deeper RB unit that outrushed the common foes 189 (5.4) to 89 (3.9) vs WAS beat up RB unit headed by Portis who admitted before the SEA game that he was only at 75%. WAS also saw DE Carter their best pass rusher taken off the field & his status is unknown. The Giants continue to play at a dominant level & get another win vs a quality foe here. FORECAST: NY Giants 24 WASHINGTON 13



3*NEW ENGLAND over Pittsburgh - NE dominated PIT 34-13 as a 10.5 pt HF LY after a member of the PIT defense guaranteed a win vs the Patriots. PIT tried to slow down the NE offense with a 181 (5.7) to 22 (2.4) rush edge but NE had 399 yds passing (70%) with a 4-0 ratio. PIT has 3 extra days to gameplan & heal as RB Parker (knee), WR Holmes (concussion) & DE Keisel (knee) were KO’d LW. This is PIT’s 1st road game in 3 Wks after losing to IND by 4 (-3 TO’s), beating SD by 1 despite a 410-213 yd edge in favorable weather (albeit a bad official call cost them) & was slow starters vs a CIN team without 7 starters. While PIT does have extra rest but the offense continues to struggle scoring points avg just 19 ppg the L5W going 1-4 ATS in that span. The run game has produced just 3.2 ypc the L5 games & now try to move against a NE squad that is allowing just 3.2 ypc TY & held MIA’s #9 rush offense just 62 yds (3.3) LW. The Patriots offense is in “Brady like” mode as they’ve topped 500+ yds in B2B weeks for the first time in their history. Moss was back in his productive mode with 125 yds (15.6) LW & Welker added 120 yds (15.0) as Cassell finished with a career high (415 yds 70% 3-1). While the PIT defense has been exceptional look for NE to stay motivated off a previous home loss to the Jets.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 Pittsburgh 20






2*TAMPA BAY over New Orleans - The Saints beat the Bucs 24-20 as a 3 pt HF in the season opener TY & improved to 3-7 ATS vs TB. NO had a 438-352 yd edge as Brees shredded the TB defense with 343 yds passing (72%) with a 3-1 ratio. TB punted on 7 of their first 8 drives (7 FD 120 yds) & only converted two 3rd Dns on the day. NO is off LW’s MNF game vs GB & it’s not known if RB Bush returned or if RB Deuce or DE Smith will be susp here. TB is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home TY with a 344-217 yd edge & 24-11 avg score. TB #1 RB Graham (563 yds 4.3) who had sacrificed some of his carries to fill in at FB for 3 games was lost to an ankle sprain & that will hurt their #30 red zone offense. This is NO’s 5th road game in 7 Wks & they are only 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road with the only SU win being vs KC. NO only has a 397-370 yd edge with a 29-23 scoring deficit in those games. Not including Wk 1 NO is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs .500 or better teams with a 31-22 losing margin while TB is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS vs .500 or better teams TY with a 21-14 avg score. TB’s red zone issues are a concern here esp vs a very potent NO team but the Saints defense is very beat up & travelling on a short week. The home team is the play here in a lower scoring game. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 20 New Orleans 10



2*Tennessee over DETROIT - Thanksgiving. DET is the 13th team in NFL history to start a season 0-11 & get an angry Titans team that was dominated at home by the Jets. The Lions have lost their L4 Thanksgiving games SU & ATS by a 33-13 avg score. TEN has all the edges here with the #23 & #7 units (+11 TO’s) vs DET’s #28 & #31 units (-7 TO’s). TEN is 15-4-1 ATS on the road, 8-2 ATS vs a foe with a losing record while DET is 6-0 ATS as a DD dog (3-0 TY). DET hasn’t sold out its L3 HG’s & could be blacked out here. While TEN’s CB’s are a little thin (only 2 healthy CB’s LW) due to injury TEN’s #8 pass defense has a 7-16 ratio & is backed up by the #6 pass rush vs DET’s OL that is 32nd in sacks allowed. TEN was outgained 409-281 LW at home & was -21:30 TOP. Culpepper (144 ypg 51% 2-5 L3W) was benched LW for poor play after blowing a 17-0 lead but reinserted after QB Stanton was KO’d with a concussion. DET was outgained 245-93 over the final 3Q allowing 38 unanswered pts & once again could be without both starting DE’s & C Raiola for the 3rd Wk. LW’s loss was the worst thing that could have happened for DET as they will now have the full focus of the Titans on a national stage who are 8-2 ATS after a SU loss. FORECAST: Tennessee 34 DETROIT 10




OTHER GAMES


DALLAS 31 Seattle 17 - DAL is 5-2 ATS on Thanksgiving winning the L2 by a 36-7 margin. This is the 2nd Thursday game the Seahawks have played under Holmgren losing 24-14 as a 9.5 pt HF in 2006. DAL has the #10 & #8 units (-6 TO’s) vs SEA’s #31 & #28 units (-4 TO’s). DAL comes into the game with lots of momentum while SEA just had an emotional game vs former QB Coach Jim Zorn. DAL is 3-7 ATS as a DD fav under Phillips while SEA is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more under Holmgren. DAL has won the yardage battle in 7 of 8 games with Romo under center with a 392-292 yd edge & 28-22 avg score. After being outgained 154-25 in the 1Q vs SF, DAL went 383-150 over the final 3Q. SEA has been outgained in 5 of 6 games with Hasselbeck at the helm by a 385-207 margin & outscored 28-20. Both teams have pass defense issues (DAL #12 15-5 ratio SEA #31 16-5 ratio) but SEA lost DE Kerney for the year and 13 of their 26 sacks have come in 2 games vs SF TY. DAL has a huge edge with Owens (6-3 218), Williams (6-3 211) & Crayton (6-0 203) vs a SEA secondary with only 1 CB above 5-11. Look for DAL to use their size advantages to wear down SEA & make big plays in the 2H to get the win. Turkey Day Play: DALLAS



PHILADELPHIA 27 Arizona 24 - ARZ is off a potential playoff preview vs the Giants while PHI lost a must win game vs BAL in an embarrassing fashion. ARZ is 8-16-1 ATS in EST games & 10-21 ATS as a non-div dog. PHI is 9-5 ATS as a non-div fav. Poor starts have killed PHI as they have generated 7 pts & a total of 9 FD in 1st Q of the L5W. McNabb simply hasn’t gotten into a rhythm with 113 yds (35%) 0-1 & a 33.1 QBR in the 1Q over the L5W. PHI was dominated in LW’s loss to BAL as their only score came on a 100 yd KR for a TD. McNabb was benched after a horrible 1H (59 yds 44% 0-2) but Kolb was just as bad in the 2H (73 yds 44% 0-2). Warner (326 ypg 71% 13-4 since Jets) will face a PHI secondary that has given up a 6-1 ratio the L4W. ARZ also benefits from having faced the same style of zone blitzing defense that DC Johnson runs just LW vs the Giants. ARZ has outgained foes 410-294 on the road TY (3-3 SU & 3-2-1 ATS) & put up 371 yds vs the Giants. PHI is in turmoil right now after the debacles of the L3W & both teams will likely get a very hostile reaction from the crowd here. While Reid will likely give McNabb one more shot here we’ll side with the Over for now & wait to see if RB Westbrook will be available before choosing a side.
Turkey Day Play: OVER



NY JETS 34 Denver 27 - The Jets are off B2B marquee victories vs NE & TEN while DEN is off 3 straight games (2-1 SU & ATS) vs inexperienced 1st or 2nd year QB’s backed up by the #26, #24 & #25 defenses. DEN now makes a huge jump vs Favre (216 ypg 75% 5-1 L3W) who is finally playing within the Jets system. The Jets are 11-6-1 ATS as a HF & DEN is 3-8 ATS as an AD. The Jets are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS at home with a 335-286 yd edge (+5 TO’s). Favre gets to face the #25 pass defense with a 15-4 ratio that is 22nd in sacks by (20). RB Jones has avg’d 116 ypg (4.2) the L3W & gets a DEN defense that just gave up 158 yds rushing (3.9) to OAK. After 2 solid games vs CLE & ATL Cutler was tripped up by OAK as he only had 204 yds passing (43%) with an 0-1 ratio with a season low 49.8 QBR. The Jets #26 pass defense is vulnerable with a 15-9 ratio but they are helped out by the #3 pass rush (35 sacks). The Jets will be reading a lot of press clippings about how their big FA spending is coming thru & that signing Favre has paid off by taking over the AFC Eas. We’ll call for the Jets to win by 7 for now as we want to see how the line shakes out with the Jets off a big win & DEN off their big loss.




BUFFALO 34 San Francisco 20 - This is the 3rd road game in 4 Wks for SF who is 3-27 SU in games starting at 1:00 EST & 8-24-1 ATS away in the EST. BUF is 6-2 ATS hosting an NFC foe. These teams are fairly equal to each other with the Bills having the #19 & #17 units (-4 TO’s) vs the 49ers #22 & #23 units (-13 TO’s) & both have top 5 special teams units. BUF is off a huge “get right” game vs KC as Edwards had 3 yds passing (75%) with a 2-0 ratio vs the #32 defense. He now gets to face a SF defense that imploded after a strong 1Q allowing 388 yds to DAL. RB Gore was held to just 32 total yds (1.6) & while BUF is allowing
114 ypg rush (4.3) they beat STL 31-14 who still incorporates big chunks of the Martz philosophy. SF is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS TY vs .500 or better teams losing by an avg score of 30-20 TY. BUF is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS vs teams .500 or worse TY with a 30-20 score. With both teams being fairly close statistically its the small edges of BUF at home (upper 30’s, 40% snow showers forecast), SF’s #29 pass defense with a 12-3 ratio & just 6 sacks the L6W on a long flight East off a tough road game which gives the Bills the call here.




Carolina 28 GREEN BAY 27 - GB could be a little worn down here as they are off TEN, MIN, CHI & a possible
MNF shootout vs NO. CAR comes in having struggled to beat OAK & DET & Delhomme had a tough game vs ATL LW. Delhomme only had 83 yds (47%) in the 1H as CAR was looking up at a 17-3 deficit & behind 202-99 in yards. GB beat the Panthers 31-17 LY as a 9.5 pt HF but CAR was starting Testaverde & WR Smith (48 rec 17.8 TY) was out with a shin injury. GB had a 28-3 lead mid-3Q before losing interest & letting CAR make the game respectable. GB has a stout secondary as their #3 pass defense has an 11-16 ratio & 6 TD’s returned for int (#1 NFL). Rodgers has passed for 215 ypg (66%) with a 6-2 ratio the L5W as his dislocated shoulder has healed. GB is also getting improved play from RB Grant who has 103 ypg (4.5) the L4W. GB’s main weakness is that they give up 147 ypg rushing (4.9) which plays to CAR’s #6 rush offense that avg 134 ypg (4.4). Both teams are play on & strong playoff contenders but with GB on a short week here we’ll side with the dog with a power rushing game & #11 defense.



Miami 31 ST LOUIS 17 - Both teams are moving in different directions with MIA having the #8 & #18 units (+1 TO’s) vs STL having the #30 & #29 units (-11 TO’s) the L4W. While MIA has the worst special teams unit in the NFL STL went into LW’s game with the #32 red zone offense & #30 red zone defense. STL will likely be without LT Pace, QB Bulger (concussion) & RB Jackson’s (STL 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS w/o him) status is uncertain after a public spat with Haslett over his TC holdout. This is MIA’s 1st AF role since Thanksgiving 2006 & MIA is 1-4-1 ATS vs the NFC. STL is 1-7-1 ATS vs the AFC. STL is back to playing at the same level before Haslett took over. In STL first 4 games TY they went 0-4 SU & ATS being outgained 412-247 (-3 TO’s) losing by a 37-11 avg score. In their L4 games they have gone 0-4 SU & ATS being outgained 388-261 (-11 TO’s) losing by a 36-9 margin. STL has clearly quit on the season & now gets a MIA team that earned 392 yds & 28 pts vs NE LW. Pennington has cooled a bit the L4W (251 ypg 61% 4-3) but should fare well vs the #19 pass defense with a 16-6 ratio that is #32 with a 8.5 ypa. MIA remains in the playoff hunt for the AFC & should make short work of a STL team that has been outscored 123-13 in the 1H of the L4 games.



Baltimore 17 CINCINNATI 9 - BAL beat CIN 17-10 as a 1.5 pt HD to open up the season. BAL had a 358-154 yd edge as they played a simplified gameplan to protect Flacco who had just gotten the #1 spot by default 10 days price. BAL had a 229 (5.0) to 65 (2.

yd edge & CIN quit on the game when Flacco rushed for a 38 yd TD to end the 3Q. BAL is 1-4 ATS as a div AF. CIN is 2-5 ATS as a div dog. Any momentum CIN had built after 2 good games vs JAX & PHI came to a crashing halt vs PIT. CIN went into the game without 7 starters including WR Johnson (41 rec, 9.3) who was susp 1 game by the coaching staff & has been outgained 340-196 in 4 div games (0-4 ATS). BAL is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in div play with a 325-209 yd edge. After getting pushed around by the Giants the BAL defense was dominant LW as they forced McNabb out of the game holding him to 59 yds passing (44%) with an 0-2 ratio. They forced 5 total TO’s returning an int 108 yds for a TD, blocked a punt for a safety, had 2 sacks & held Westbrook to 34 total yds (2.1). While CIN should get its starting LT, LG & #3 OT back they don’t have the muscle on either side of the trenches & BAL is the play.




Indianapolis 24 CLEVELAND 23 - This is a huge flat spot for the Colts who are off 5 straight games vs probable playoff teams, div rival HOU who always plays them tough & a long SNF road game vs SD. LY CLE went 7-0 SU & ATS at home after the opening PIT loss with a 390-351 yd edge (+6 TO’s) & 30-20 avg score. TY CLE is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS at home & has been outgained 420-297 (-3 TO’s) & outscored 23-19 minus the NYG MNF game. CLE pulled QB Quinn after he had 94 yds (44%) with an 0-2 ratio & WR Edwards (40 rec, 16.5) dropped 4 balls bringing him to 17 on the year (#1 NFL). CLE couldn’t recover from 5 TO’s LW which set up 6 pts by HOU. They also fizzled in the red zone as on 4 drives inside the HOU 21 they had 2 FG’s, 1 missed FG & an int. CLE is 12-5 ATS as a dog while IND is 9-5 ATS as a non-div AF. IND has the #11 & #16 units (+4 TO’s) the L4W vs CLE’s #22 & #32 units (-1 TO’s) in the span. Manning has gotten his timing in the passing game back over the L3W with 271 ypg (63%) and a 7-0 ratio (104.0 QBR). He now faces CLE’s #28 pass defense which has a decent 14-15 ratio but only has 15 sacks (29th). CLE is a very inconsistent team TY & wins the games they have no right to show up (NYG, JAX, BUF) but loses the ones they should (DEN & HOU). We’ll call for IND to win by 1 & see if FS Sanders returns here & wait for the line.



Atlanta 28 SAN DIEGO 27 - SD is off LW’s must win vs IND & it’s not known if they managed to keep their season afloat. ATL bounced back from their loss vs DEN by beating CAR 45-28 with 28 4Q pts. They are rested coming off 3 straight home games & RB Turner (99 ypg, 4.3) returns to SD. QB Ryan is off another solid performance (259 yds 63%) & in ATL’s 7 wins he’s passed for over 61% with only ONE int while in his 4 losses he’s passed for only 51% (never topping 61%) with 5 int. SD #32 pass defense has been a huge disappointment TY & L4W they’ve allowed 382 ypg including a mind boggling 74% comp rate. While the SD’s offense used to cover up their defensive flaws the lack of a run game (83 ypg 3.7 L6 gms) has pressured Rivers to throw & he’s tossed multiple int in 5 of 7 games. SD’s defense led the NFL with 48 takeaways LY but is without a takeaway in 4 straight games. SD is 2-0 as a HF in their MNF & SNF games TY & 0-2 in Sun afternoon games losing to CAR outright & squeaking past KC as a 14’ point fav surviving on a stopped 2pt conversion. We’ll side with ATL getting points with SD off their SNF vs IND & having a Thurs game vs OAK on deck.



Kansas City 27 OAKLAND 23 - OAK beat KC 23-8 as a 3 pt AD in the 2nd Wk of the season. Injury & ineffectiveness forced KC to use 3 QB’s including Thigpen who had 151 yds (42%) with a 1-1 ratio in the game. OAK rushed for 300 yds (6.4) & held KC to 55 yds (2.9) rushing & HC Edwards admitted that “we got embarrassed at home.” KC is 5-2 ATS away vs a div foe while OAK is 2-9 ATS hosting a div foe. OAK is off a huge 31-10 win vs arch rival DEN as they scored their 1st offensive TD in 15 Qtrs (or 206 plays). KC was blown out at home 54-31 as they were -5 TO’s which set up 20 pts for BUF. They now take to the road where they have gone 0-5 SU & 3-2 ATS. KC has scored 19 or more pts in 5 straight games after doing it just once in their first six games. Neither team is very appealing as they are both rebuilding but with OAK being just 0-8 ATS as a HF & KC getting a little healthier LW (3 def starters back) & not quitting after being down 40-17 LW we’ll lean with the road dog here in a higher scoring game.



Chicago at MINNESOTA - CHI won a surprising 48-41 shootout in the 1st meeting as a 3.5 pt HF & the Bears has covered 7 of the L10. MIN had a 439-327 yd edge but CHI int’d Frerotte 4 times, blocked a punt for a TD & recovered 2 fumbles for TD’s in the game. The Vikings had a 155 (4.

to 53 (2.4) rush edge but CHI had great field position all day thanks to the TO’s. Both teams got satisfying road wins LW to keep the NFC North interesting & this game will have deep playoff implications.




Jacksonville at HOUSTON - The Jaguars needed OT to beat the Texans 30-27 & failed to cover as a 7 pt HF dropping to 3-10 ATS vs them. HOU held RB’s Jones-Drew & Taylor to 56 yds rushing (3.3) but gave up a 41 yd TD run via a direct snap on a fake punt for JAX’s 1st score. Both teams will go all out here as this HOU’s only primetime game TY & will have some momentum after getting their 1st road win in over a year LW. JAX is playing for pride after injuries derailed what was expected to be a playoff run in 2008 & this will be the Jaguars playoff game. Call for tonight’s Marquee Play on the Total at 1-900-438-9467 for just $15 after 3:00 pm ET. Currently Monday Totals Plays are 6-1 L/7W!!!




3★ Broncos/Jets OVER 47'
3★ 49ers/Bills OVER 44
3★ Giants/Redskins UNDER 44'*
2★ Panthers/Packers OVER 43*
2★ Ravens/Bengals UNDER 36'

 

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday, November 30, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed Selection:

NFL Hammer

Indianapolis -4 1:00 PM EST

If your line is -4.5 buy it down to 4. Get on this game quickly as the line is going to move up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 13 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (18-17 = 51.4%)

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns

Teams are scrambling for playoff spots and the cream is rising to the top. Some of the old reliable NFL powerhouses have been hot -- and the Indianapolis Colts are no exception. The Colts have rang up four wins in a row -- and the Public thinks they are the Colts of the past few years. More than 90% of all bets are taking the visiting Colts over the Cleveland Browns. That is huge! We also want our readers to note that a huge 95% of teaser / parlay bets are on the Colts; teasers and parlays typically represent very "square" bettors. The Public is all over the Colts and you know what that means: we want to "bet against the Public" and take the Cleveland Browns as a live home dog.

Note that before Indy's winning streak, they were 3-4. Even now, the Colt's "points for" minus "points against" is only 247 - 244 = +3. Even with the Public pounding their hard-earned money on the Colts, the sportsbooks have left the line solidly at Colts -4.5. The books look very content at taking the other side at Cleveland +4.5. We'll join the sportsbooks, bet against the Public -- and look for Cleveland to at least stay close in this game at home. If you shop around, you can find some +5's around.

Cleveland Browns +5

Atlanta Falcons vs San Diego Chargers

This match-up falls into out "buy low and sell high" mantra. We're selling Atlanta after its big win over Carolina -- and buying San Diego on its lackluster performance in the previous week against a resurgent Indy team. The Public noticed these performances and is taking Atlanta plus the points to the tune of 70%. You don't see the Public taking underdogs at this rate that often -- and this is the same reason that you don't often see our Sports MarketWatch pick favorites very often.

The NFL marketplace has been interesting for the Falcon-Charger game. The line opened at San Diego -5.5. We believe that the marketplace was surprised that the Public was on the underdog Falcons at the 70% rate they have been getting bets down on Atlanta. The line has been getting pushed down -- and you can now get the Chargers -4. The past few years, San Diego has been hyped as a Superbowl contender. The Public is disappointed in the Chargers and is starting to jump on the Atlanta bandwagon. We like the value of the 1.5 line movement (especially into the "key 4" number) -- as well as a San Diego team at home -- with its playoff-backs against the wall. Give the points.

San Diego Chargers -4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

NFL fans have been looking forward to this game! The Steelers are 8-3 and the Patriots are 7-4. New England is starting to pull it all together -- but because of their early-season difficulties, the Pats are just a 1 point favorite at home. We believe there is value on the Pats at home at -1 -- particularly because the Public remembers their early season slump.

NE QB, Matt Cassel, has been "coming into his own" and there is even talk of Tom Brady being on the trading block! There are also stories about Cassel making a huge name for himself -- and the potential for him signing a huge contract at some point in the near future (read: contract year!). Either way, New England is looking strong in the QB position and is gaining momentum at the right time of the season this year.

New England Patriots -1

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (18-17 = 51.4%)

Cleveland Browns +5
San Diego Changers -4
New England Patriots -1
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