Pointwise NFL
DALLAS over Arizona RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Indianapolis RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 5
SEATTLE over Green Bay RATING: 5
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24 - (1:00) -- Raider bye week came at a good
time, as they blew 9-pt & 12-pt 4th quarter leads in their previous 2 games. As
a matter of fact, they were outscored 28-3 by the Bills, in their last outing. So
they've actually been in their past 3 games. The way to go thus far, is with the
visitor in Oakland games, as the guest is 4-0 ATS by 53½ pts. Third straight
HG for the Saints, who are in off Monday Nighter. At least 23 pts in each of
their last 9 games, but also 28.5 ppg in last 6 contests. Raiders 21-12 ATS as
RDs off 2 losses, while Saints are 0-10 ATS Oct HFs vs a foe off SU/ATS loss.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Miracle win & cover for Colts LW,
with 3 TDs in final 4:04 (68-yd fumble return, & TD off fumble). Indy still being
mauled, overland, with RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, 236-114, & 156-79, so
this can't be that easy, as the Ravens have FD edges of 21-8, 21-11, 16-11, &
22-14 thus far. Two straight 3-pt losses for Balt, after a 45-20 pt edge in its
first 2 games. The visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS in Colt games lately, & with the
Ravens ranking 3rd in rushing "O", as well as 1st in overall "D", they are worth
a long look. Baltimore is 13-7 ATS off scoring 14 pts or less. Down to the wire.
NEW YORK JETS 26 - Cincinnati 23 - (1:00) -- The man is something. No less
than 6 TD passes for Favre before Jet bye week. That's a career-high for him,
& ties him with Joe Namath for most ever by a Jet. Now 12/4 for the season.
Chance for NY to make a legitimate move with Cincy, Oakland, KC run. But
the Bengals shouldn't go down easily, as they've covered their last 2 RGs by
10½ & 7 pts, altho they do have an 855-385 RY deficit so far. Dog is 12-2 ATS
in Cincy games (10 upsets), & the guest is 7-2 ATS in NY tilts. Jets 1-9 ATS
in Oct vs non-division foes off a pair of losses. Despite Cincy's Dallas-Pitt SW.
TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- As we've written many times, we rarely
stray from the Bucs at home. And this year is no exception, as they've paid off
by 8 & 7½ pts in their 2 hosting opportunities to date. Garcia for Griese (shoulder),
& he was a nice 13-of-17 in that push. Panthers took full advantage of
the anemic Chiefs LW, in 34-0 blowout (441-127 yd edge), which boosts an
"O" which was ranked just 23rd at gametime. Check Williams with 123 RYs &
3 TDs. But Bucs are 9-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 HGs, vs an opponent off a pair of
wins, as well as 24-13 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less. Tampa, as division host.
MINNESOTA 34 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the 14-pt opening line
on this one seems juicy, especially with the Vikes coming in off a Monday Night
appointment. But backing the Lions is a quick trip to the poor house. Check
their current 1-11 SU run, as well a their 2-10 ATS slide. They've been stung
for 35.9 ppg in their last 10 outings, & are simply worse by the week. Can't
run, & can't stop the run (720-281 RY deficit), or anything else. Orlovsky for
Kitna LW, but no matter. Minny nothing special (1-6 ATS), but the fav is 4-0 in
Viking games this year, & they are 5-0-1 ATS in this series of late. Poor Lions.
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16 - (1:00) -- Bears sit atop the NFC Central, with their
fine early season play. They've been a very profitable play of late (+99 pts ATS
in their last 8 games), with Orton certainly earning his stripes. Threw for 324
yds & 2 TDs vs the inept Lions (no INTs). Couple of ointment flies, of course,
not the least of which is the success of the pup in Bear games of late: 6-1-1
ATS, as well as the fact that the host is 5-1 ATS in Falcon contests. Turner
now at 543 RYs, with Ryan 4/3 for the year. But Falcon "D": 28 ppg last 12.
Atlanta 4-19 ATS hosting winning teams, & 11-24 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.
HOUSTON 27 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Incredible loss for Texans LW, after leading
27-10 with 4:05 left, with 2 Rosenfels (for ailing Schaub) fumbles the culprits.
Two straight for oncoming Dolphs, behind 238 RYs from Brown, with Chad a
brilliant 39-of-49 in those 2 (37½ & 13½ pt covers). And they catch Houston
off 3 division games. But Texans averaging 31 ppg in last 6 hosters, with
Schaub's return ensuring a continuation. Miami is 14-25 ATS off a SU dog
win, while Houston is 17-10 ATS off a loss of <11 pts. Texans also 8-2 ATS off
a division game vs a foe off 2 wins. And Kubiak is 7-1 home vs a foe off a win.
WASHINGTON 36 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Would love to jump on the 15 pt line
posted here, but it makes little sense. Like the aforementioned Lions, you need
only look at the Rams' dismal record, namely a 3-16-1 spread log, while failing
to reach 17 pts on 14 occasions since LY, while allowing 38.4 ppg over their
last 7 outings. For example, they led Buffalo 14-6: lost 31-14. Four straight
wins & covers for the 'Skins, with a 649-273 RY edge in those 4. Portis: 266
RYs last 2 weeks (vs Dallas & Philly, no less), & Campbell a force. Rams are
10-22 ATS away vs winning teams, while 'Skins on 8-2 ATS run. Over early.
DENVER 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (4:05) -- Finally a bit of a defensive showing for
the Broncos, who entered their game with the Bucs, off allowing 38, 32, & 33
pts. But just a single TD by Tampa, altho Denver was outrushed at home for
the 1st time. The Broncos are averaging 31 ppg in their last 6 hosters, & rank
#1 in the NFL in total "O". The 'Ville in off being manhandled by Pitt: 415-213
yd & 28-14 FD deficits, altho the Jags did have the lead entering the final 2
minutes. Last 4 J'Ville games have been decided by 4, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so more
of the same here. Broncos 25-15 ATS at home with line between -3 & +3 pts.
Philadelphia 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:15) -- Call similar score to LW's Pat/
49er contest. Check the overwhelming stat advantage of the Patriots: 25-12
FD, & 377-199 yd edges. O'Sullivan: 3 TDs, but also 3 INTs; Gore: from 212
RYs to just 54. This is 3rd of 6 grinders for SanFran, but the Eagles enter this
one off no less than 4 wars, losing the last 2. And note just a FG over the final
52:47 vs the 'Skins (203-58 RY deficit). Thus, a quick chance for redemption,
as well as a return to the right track. The Niners are 2-8 ATS off scoring >20
pts, & losing, & are 12-21 ATS off a spread loss as a dog. Philly bounceback.
Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 23 - (4:15) -- Now or never for the Seahawks, who
have a huge score to settle with the Packers, who administered a 42-20 playoff
pounding LY. As usual, home/away dichotomy in Seattle contests is firmly
entrenched. In their 2 RGs, the 'Hawks have a 78-16 pt deficit, but are at 34.2
ppg in their last 5 hosters. And the homer is 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
Rodgers (shoulder) played for the Pack vs Atlanta, but a crucial INT did them
in. Sure, McCarthy is 8-1 ATS vs opponents off a SU non-division loss, but
have to see Seattle taking advantage of 26th rated Packer defense. Revenge.
SAN DIEGO 29 - New England 15 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Triple revenge shot for the
Chargers, who not only lost to the Pats during the '07 regular season, but also
in the '06 & '07 playoffs. May have been peeking a bit to this one, in LW's 17-
10 loss to the Dolphins, as they had averaged 34.5 ppg in their first 4 games.
And note a current 11-3 ATS run for SD, with 1 of those misses by a single pt.
The Pats are on a 2-8 ATS run, reaching 20 pts in just 1 of their last 5 outings.
A solid showing at SanFran, but Chargers are another matter. They are 13-4
ATS off a SU loss, as well as 16-6 ATS off being upset. Grab this "must-win".
