Jeff Benton Saturday's 20 Dime winner ... 20 DIME: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Braves
Ever so quietly, Jair Jurrjens has put together some incredible numbers and emerged as the Braves’ bona fide ace this year. No, his 9-7 record isn’t very attractive, nor is his team’s 11-11 mark when Jurrjens pitches. However, those records don’t come close to reflecting how strong the right-hander has been this season. For a more accurate depiction of Jurrjens’ abilities, get a load of these stats:
He has a 2.69 ERA, which is sixth-lowest in the National League; he has a 2.51 ERA in 11 home starts (including giving up just one run in his last three at home); he’s allowing barely a baserunner per inning (159 combined hits and walks allowed in 134 innings); and he has 93 strikeout against 48 walks overall (nearly a 2-to-1 ratio). Also, in Jurrjens’ 22 starts, he’s given up three earned runs or fewer 19 times, two earned or less 17 times and one or no earned runs on nine occasions, and he’s pitched at least six innings in 17 of his last 18 starts that weren’t interrupted by rain.
Jurrjens enters this game against the Dodgers on a roll, having given up a total of five runs and 17 hits in his last four starts covering 25 2/3 innings (1.75 ERA). The Braves won the first three of those games – beating Colorado 4-3 on the road and the Mets (11-0) and Giants (4-2 at home) – before suffering a tough 4-3 loss at Florida on Monday.
And for good measure, look at what Jurrjens did in two starts against the Dodgers last season: He gave up a run on three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 home win last April, then surrendered just a run on five hits over six innings of a 9-3 road victory last July. Those two runs allowed in 13 innings equates to a 1.39 ERA. By comparison, Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley also faced the Braves twice last season and went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA – including going opposite Jurrjens in that 9-3 Atlanta win in Los Angeles.
Speaking of Billingsley, the Dodgers’ ace has hit a big-time wall. Over his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 19 runs (all earned) in just 18 1/3 innings (9.33 ERA). L.A. split those four games, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis on Monday, and the Dodgers are just 3-5 in his last eight trips to the mound (2-3 on the road). One sure sign that the hard-throwing Billingsley isn’t right: He has 11 walks against 16 strikeouts during his four-start funk after enjoying a 115-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18 starts.
With this game being played at night, it’s also interesting to note that Billingsley’s ERA under the lights (4.40) is nearly twice as high as Jurrjens’ ERA in night games (2.52). Throw in the fact that the Braves have won 11 of their last 14 home games, eight of their last 11 as a favorite, and five straight games against the N.L. West with Jurrjens starting, and I’ll lay this very reasonable price – especially considering this a very tough spot for the Dodgers, who are wrapping up a seven-game road trip with a less-than-desired night game, after which they’ll board a long red-eye flight back to L.A.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA, IRONHORSE AND MYSELF-------------GL GUYS
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too bad for this play...was on it...no dice
still made some JACK on the day though
if this would have hit...woulda hit my 5 team parlay too
hno:more winners shall come tomorrow!
If by puss you mean intelligent, responsible, successful manager, then I agree. Take it from a Cubs fan who watched Dusty kill the careers of Prior and Wood; Prior being the one that had the talent to be one of the greatest ever, one of the saddest things to ever happen to a great guy. Man what I'd do for him to be healthy and in a Cub uniform, or anywhere for that matter. Just unfair that he never got to be what he could've.
