John Ryan
Money Line: -113 Philadelphia Flyers
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Flyers as they host the Bruins set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 making 18.4 units since 2003. Play against road dogs of +100 to +150 against the money line revenging a same season loss versus opponent and is well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days. Boston is a weak 80-109 against the money line (-54.3 Units) against poor defensive teams opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year since 1996. Philadelphia is a solid 16-8 against the money line (+9.3 Units) after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games this season. Take the Flyers.
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Money Line: -113 Philadelphia Flyers
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Flyers as they host the Bruins set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 making 18.4 units since 2003. Play against road dogs of +100 to +150 against the money line revenging a same season loss versus opponent and is well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days. Boston is a weak 80-109 against the money line (-54.3 Units) against poor defensive teams opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year since 1996. Philadelphia is a solid 16-8 against the money line (+9.3 Units) after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games this season. Take the Flyers.
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DR BOB
one NBA Best Bet and a possible NCAA Best Bet.
Rotation #717 Phoenix (-5) 3-Stars at -6 or less.
Michigan State is a Strong Opinion at +6 or +6 1/2, but the Spartans are a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 (-1.10 odds or better). Lean with Oklahoma +7.
3 Star Selection
***Phoenix (-5) over SACRAMENTO
06:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 717
The Suns have gone back to their old style of up-tempo play under new coach Alvin Gentry, who took over after the All-Star break. The result has been much better offensive efficiency and worse defense, but the lack of defense has not been a problem when facing bad teams. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS under Gentry when facing a team with a losing record and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Sacramento. The Kings are just 4-16-1 ATS this season at home against teams with a win percentage of greater than .333 as long as they are not an underdog of 8 points or more and the Suns will certainly be focused after losing consecutive games at Portland and at Utah last night. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS this season as a road favorite while playing the 2nd of back-to-back nights, so I don’t see last night’s overtime game in Utah being an issue. That overtime game has actually given us some line value, as the line has gone from -6 down to -5 points and my ratings favor the the Suns by 6 ½ points in this game. Phoenix also applies to a solid 109-45-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is 51-14 ATS when the opposing team has a win percentage of less than .333. I’ll take Phoenix in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ points.
NCAA Possible Best Bet
Michigan State (+6 ½) over Louisville
11:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 719
Louisville sure was impressive in their 103-64 round 3 win over Arizona, but the Cardinals failed to cover in their first two NCAA Tournament games and their most recent win appears to have over-influenced the line. Louisville is a very good team and the Big East has represented itself well in this tournament, but there is no way to justify the Cardinals being favored by 6 ½ points. Using all games for each team for the entire season I get Louisville by 3.3 points, but Michigan State struggled a bit in 6 games without C Goran Suton – registering 2 of the team’s 6 losses for the season without their big man. Michigan State is 25-4 with Suton in the lineup and I get Louisville by 2.7 points using the Spartans games with Suton. Louisville appears to be a better team now than they were early in the season, but I still get Louisville by just 3.9 points using games since conference season started in early January. The only way I come close to the line of 6 ½ points is if I only use Louisville’s games during their current 13 game winning streak - I get Louisville by 6 points doing that. Using only the games since their last loss is heavily biased in Louisville’s favor and I still can’t justify a line of 6 ½ points. Big East teams have out-played their ratings by an average of 2.3 points during the post-season and if Big East teams are truly 2.3 points better than my ratings suggest then I would get a fair line of Louisville by 5 points (2.7 + 2.3). Regardless of how I crunch the numbers there is no way to justify Louisville being favored by 6 ½ points and I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take MSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better). I will also lean with the Under since my math projects a total of 131 points.
Oklahoma (+7) over North Carolina
02:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 721
North Carolina is the best team in the nation with Ty Lawson in the lineup, but Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin is the best player in the nation and the Sooners are capable of beating any team when he’s playing well. North Carolina should be on alert because Griffin has been unstopable during the Sooners tournament run, making an incredible 27 of 37 shots (73%) while averaging 30.3 points and 14.7 rebounds. My ratings only favor North Carolina by 4 ½ points, with a total of 165 ½ points, and I’ll lean with Oklahoma plus the points.
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one NBA Best Bet and a possible NCAA Best Bet.
Rotation #717 Phoenix (-5) 3-Stars at -6 or less.
Michigan State is a Strong Opinion at +6 or +6 1/2, but the Spartans are a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 (-1.10 odds or better). Lean with Oklahoma +7.
3 Star Selection
***Phoenix (-5) over SACRAMENTO
06:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 717
The Suns have gone back to their old style of up-tempo play under new coach Alvin Gentry, who took over after the All-Star break. The result has been much better offensive efficiency and worse defense, but the lack of defense has not been a problem when facing bad teams. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS under Gentry when facing a team with a losing record and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Sacramento. The Kings are just 4-16-1 ATS this season at home against teams with a win percentage of greater than .333 as long as they are not an underdog of 8 points or more and the Suns will certainly be focused after losing consecutive games at Portland and at Utah last night. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS this season as a road favorite while playing the 2nd of back-to-back nights, so I don’t see last night’s overtime game in Utah being an issue. That overtime game has actually given us some line value, as the line has gone from -6 down to -5 points and my ratings favor the the Suns by 6 ½ points in this game. Phoenix also applies to a solid 109-45-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is 51-14 ATS when the opposing team has a win percentage of less than .333. I’ll take Phoenix in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ points.
NCAA Possible Best Bet
Michigan State (+6 ½) over Louisville
11:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 719
Louisville sure was impressive in their 103-64 round 3 win over Arizona, but the Cardinals failed to cover in their first two NCAA Tournament games and their most recent win appears to have over-influenced the line. Louisville is a very good team and the Big East has represented itself well in this tournament, but there is no way to justify the Cardinals being favored by 6 ½ points. Using all games for each team for the entire season I get Louisville by 3.3 points, but Michigan State struggled a bit in 6 games without C Goran Suton – registering 2 of the team’s 6 losses for the season without their big man. Michigan State is 25-4 with Suton in the lineup and I get Louisville by 2.7 points using the Spartans games with Suton. Louisville appears to be a better team now than they were early in the season, but I still get Louisville by just 3.9 points using games since conference season started in early January. The only way I come close to the line of 6 ½ points is if I only use Louisville’s games during their current 13 game winning streak - I get Louisville by 6 points doing that. Using only the games since their last loss is heavily biased in Louisville’s favor and I still can’t justify a line of 6 ½ points. Big East teams have out-played their ratings by an average of 2.3 points during the post-season and if Big East teams are truly 2.3 points better than my ratings suggest then I would get a fair line of Louisville by 5 points (2.7 + 2.3). Regardless of how I crunch the numbers there is no way to justify Louisville being favored by 6 ½ points and I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take MSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better). I will also lean with the Under since my math projects a total of 131 points.
Oklahoma (+7) over North Carolina
02:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 721
North Carolina is the best team in the nation with Ty Lawson in the lineup, but Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin is the best player in the nation and the Sooners are capable of beating any team when he’s playing well. North Carolina should be on alert because Griffin has been unstopable during the Sooners tournament run, making an incredible 27 of 37 shots (73%) while averaging 30.3 points and 14.7 rebounds. My ratings only favor North Carolina by 4 ½ points, with a total of 165 ½ points, and I’ll lean with Oklahoma plus the points.
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Lee Sterling
San Antonio at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +1.5
This is Lee Sterling and I've been in the top three for winning percentage for a long time now. If you want winning picks then I'm your guy. In NBA today I'm clearly behind New Orleans because they are getting healthier and they need this game in the worst way for their confidence. Most teams get beaten by San Antonio because they have no PG to guard Parker but New Orleans does and can get a lot of easy baskets in transition versus a tired and slow San Antonio squad. New Orleans big on Sunday night.
San Antonio at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +1.5
This is Lee Sterling and I've been in the top three for winning percentage for a long time now. If you want winning picks then I'm your guy. In NBA today I'm clearly behind New Orleans because they are getting healthier and they need this game in the worst way for their confidence. Most teams get beaten by San Antonio because they have no PG to guard Parker but New Orleans does and can get a lot of easy baskets in transition versus a tired and slow San Antonio squad. New Orleans big on Sunday night.
For those of you wondering about Tim Trushel's packages, the Sportsmemo website has all the pricing info as well as a posting forum (where I post frequently) where Tim will often answer questions people have regularly about anything re: the Sportsmemo services. It's such a different quality environment from the other phony services because the Sportsmemo group actually interact with all the listeners/bettors via the forum. Speaking of Tim Trushel, he is on an incredible 31-7 (82%) NBA run. Won an easy under in the Portland game last night with his latest play.
