THE SPORTS ADVIORS
MIDWEST REGIONAL
(at Indianapolis)
(2) Michigan State (29-6, 19-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) Louisville (31-5, 22-14 ATS)
After a couple of shaky performances in the first two rounds of the Big Dance last weekend, Louisville came out Friday and proved why it received the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, waxing Arizona 103-64 and covering easily as a 9½-point favorite. The Cardinals are riding a 13-game winning streak (9-4 ATS), and have advanced to their second consecutive regional final.
In Friday’s other regional semifinal, Michigan State survived its second consecutive scare, rallying from a 13-point first-half deficit for a 67-62 victory over No. 3 seed Kansas, covering as a one-point favorite. The Spartans, who barely held off USC 74-69 as a four-point chalk in a second-round contest, are 3-0 SU and ATS in the Tournament and 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in their last 10. Tom Izzo’s squad is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2005, when it lost the national championship game to North Carolina.
Louisville built up a 21-point halftime lead against the 12th-seeded Wildcats and outscored them 54-36 over the final 20 minutes. Five players scored in double digits for the Cardinals, who shot 57.6 percent from the field (14-for-29 from three-point range) and held Arizona to 38.1 percent shooting.
Goran Sutton had a season-high 20 points and nine rebounds to pace Michigan State against the Jayhawks, but it was the play of guard Kalin Lucas that proved the difference, as he scored seven – including going 5-for-5 on free throws – in the final 49 seconds. Michigan State won despite getting outshot 45.3 percent to 39 percent and despite getting outrebounded 31-26, but the Spartans were nearly perfect from the foul line (16-for-17) and had just 13 turnovers while forcing 19.
The Cardinals reached the regional final last season, falling to North Carolina 83-73 as a 5½-point underdog and they’re once again shooting for their first Final Four appearance since 2005. Coach Rick Pitino owns a 38-12 SU Tournament record while coaching Providence, Kentucky and Louisville.
Under coach Tom Izzo, Michigan State is now 30-10 SU in the Tournament, reaching four Final Fours, seven Sweet 16s and winning one national championship (2000). The last time the Spartans were in the regional final was in 2005, when they beat Kentucky 94-88 in overtime, covering as a 1½-point chalk.
These teams last met on Jan. 2, 1999, with Michigan State prevailing 69-57 as an 8½-point favorite.
Louisville, which failed to cash in its first two Tournament games last weekend, ended ATS droughts of 0-4 in non-conference play and 0-3 in the Big Dance with Friday’s rout of Arizona. Also, the Cardinals have failed to cash in five straight games against the Big Ten. On the bright side, they remain on positive ATS streaks of 39-19-1 overall (17-7-1 last 25), 15-7 as a chalk, 21-7-1 when giving less than seven points, 7-2-1 as a Tourney favorite, 4-0 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament and 11-4 on Sunday
Michigan State is on a host of positive pointspread runs, including 5-1 overall (4-1 at neutral sites), 5-0 in non-conference action, 11-4-1 in neutral-site games, 20-8-1 in the Big Dance, 8-3-1 as an underdog and 4-0 on Sunday. However, the Spartans have failed to cash in five of their last seven against the Big East.
The Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 13-7-1 in non-conference games, 7-3-1 as a neutral-site chalk, 15-5 after a victory of more than 20 points and 6-1 after scoring in triple digits in the previous game. Likewise, Michigan State comes in on “under” stretches of 10-4 overall, 38-18-1 as an underdog, 22-6 when catching less than seven points, 9-4 as a neutral-site pup, 8-3 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SOUTH REGIONAL
(at Memphis, Tenn.)
(2) Oklahoma (30-5, 16-13-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (31-4, 14-19-0 ATS)
North Carolina exploded offensively for the third straight time in the Tournament, pounding No. 4 seed Gonzaga 98-77 on Friday, easily cashing as a 7½-point favorite as it improved to 3-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. The Tar Heels, who have scored 101, 84 and 98 points in this event, are back in the regional final for the third straight season and a victory today would put them in the Final Four for the second consecutive year and the third time since 2005.
Oklahoma also moved to 3-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance by easily dispatching third-seeded Syracuse 84-71 as a one-point favorite. The Sooners, who were eliminated in the second round of the Tournament last year, are back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2003 and are seeking their first Final Four berth since 2002.
Four of UNC’s five starters reached double digits in scoring Friday, with Tyler Hansbrough going for a game-high 24 points along with 10 rebounds, while gimpy point guard Ty Lawson once again shook off an injured toe and poured in 19 points with nine assists. The Tar Heels shot 53 percent from the floor, made 11 of 19 three-point tries (58 percent) and dominated the boards (40-28 rebounding edge). Roy Williams’ squad is averaging 94.3 ppg in the Big Dance while shooting 50.2 percent.
The Sooners seemingly couldn’t miss against Syracuse, shooting 54.2 percent while going 9-for-21 (43 percent) from long range. Big man Blake Griffin (12-for-15 shooting, 30 points, 14 rebounds) was marvelous as usual, and he got a lot of help from guard Tony Crocker (28 points on 9-for-17 shooting). Oklahoma is averaging 79.7 ppg and shooting 54.4 percent in the Tournament.
North Carolina, playing in the Big Dance for the 41st time, started last year’s Tournament 4-0 SU and ATS, including an 83-73 victory over Louisville as a 5½-point favorite in the Elite Eight.
Oklahoma is in its 26th NCAA Tournament and last played in the regional final in 2003, when it lost to Syracuse 63-47 as a three-point underdog. The previous year, the Sooners were upset in the Final Four, falling 73-64 to Indiana as a seven-point favorite.
North Carolina has cashed in three straight games for the first time since a 3-0 ATS run that carried over from late November to early December, and the Heels – who entered this tourney in a 7-17 ATS drought – haven’t enjoyed a 4-0 ATS run all season. Furthermore, they continue to be in ATS funks of 0-5 on Sunday, 3-7 against winning teams, 3-9 as a favorite of less than seven points, 2-7 after a SU win and 2-8 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, UNC is on positive pointspread runs of 7-1 in the Tournament (all as a favorite), 37-15 in non-conference action, 5-2 versus the Big 12 and 9-3 at neutral sites.
The Sooners have now cashed in four of their last five Tournament games, and they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven at neutral venues. However, as an underdog, OU is in pointspread slumps of 7-20-1 overall, 2-6 at neutral sites and 4-12-1 when catching less than seven points.
The over is on runs of 13-5 for North Carolina on Sunday, 6-1 when North Carolina is favored by less than seven points, 13-6-1 for North Carolina after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 for Oklahoma in the Tournament, 13-5-1 for Oklahoma in non-conference play and 10-3 for Oklahoma after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (58-14, 38-34 ATS) at Atlanta (42-31, 40-32-1 ATS)
The Lakers continue a seven-game Eastern Conference road swing when they make their only visit of the season to Philips Arena for a date with the playoff-bound Hawks.
Los Angeles clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with Friday’s 103-95 win in New Jersey, barely covering as a seven-point favorite. The Lakers have won five in a row and eight of their last nine, and after an 0-3 ATS stretch at home, they’ve cashed in each of the first four games of this road trip (all as a favorite). Phil Jackson’s team has been doing it with defense lately, holding six of the last nine opponents to 96 points or fewer while surrendering just 83.7 points per game in the last three.
The Hawks have followed up seven-game SU winning streak by dropping three of their last four, with all three losses coming against elite NBA competition – 102-96 at Cleveland, followed by a pair of home defeats to the Spurs on Wednesday (102-92) and the Celtics on Friday (99-93). Prior to those latter two setbacks, Atlanta had won eight straight home games (7-0-1 ATS). Also, the two non-covers against San Antonio and Boston came on the heels of an 8-0-1 ATS run.
The Lakers pounded Atlanta 96-83 as an 8½-point home favorite in the first game after the All-Star break on Feb. 17. L.A. has won two straight and four of five in this rivalry, but the loss came in last year’s visit to Philips Arena, which the Hawks won 98-95 as a 3½-point underdog. The host is 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the Lakers are 8-3 SU and ATS during this stretch. Finally, the winner has cashed in each those 11 head-to-head matchups.
Los Angeles has gotten the money in six straight road games and is on further pointspread tears of 4-0 overall, 8-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 after a spread-cover. However, the Lakers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 contests when playing on one day of rest, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Southeast Division and 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus winning teams.
Atlanta has failed to cash in five of its last six against Pacific Division foes, but otherwise the Hawks are on spread-covering streaks of 8-2-1 overall, 10-2-1 at home, 9-2 against winning teams, 6-1-1 against the Western Conference and 7-2-1 when going on one day of rest, and they’re 12-6 ATS as an underdog of less than five points.
The Lakers carry “under” streaks of 6-1 overall, 7-3 on the highway, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-0-1 on Sunday, and the under is 7-1 in Atlanta’s last eight Sunday affairs. However, the Hawks are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 at home and 6-3 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Antonio (48-24, 36-34-2 ATS) at New Orleans (44-27, 30-39-2 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Hornets face a must-win situation at New Orleans Arena if they’re going to run down the Spurs for first place in the Southwest Division.
New Orleans has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive upset losses to the Nuggets at home (101-88 as a four-point favorite) and the Knicks on the road (103-93 as a 4½-point chalk). The Hornets now trail the Spurs by 3 ½ games and the second-place Rockets by two games in the division standings. Once again, the Hornets are struggling on the offensive end, as they’ve been held under triple digits in eight straight games and 13 of the last 16. Meanwhile, after limiting 14 straight opponents to 97 points or less, Byron Scott’s club has seen the last two eclipse the century mark.
The Spurs have taken advantage of New Orleans’ slump by winning three straight games, as the offense has come to life by scoring 107, 102 and 111 points after averaging 85.7 ppg in the previous six outings. On Friday, San Antonio had no trouble with the Clippers, winning 111-98 and holding on for the cover as an 11½-point home chalk. The Spurs have cashed in their last two contests, following an 0-5 ATS slump.
These teams had a thrilling seven-game Western Conference semifinal playoff battle last spring, with the Spurs winning the last two games both SU and ATS to take the series. New Orleans got a tinge of revenge in this season’s first meeting Dec. 17, winning 90-83 as a two-point home favorite, but San Antonio answered with a 106-93 rout as a 7½-point home chalk on Jan. 31.
Including the playoffs, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 clashes both SU and ATS in this rivalry, with the winner covering each time out. Also, the favorite is on an 8-1 ATS roll, and San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to New Orleans, with the lone cover coming in Game 7 of last year’s postseason series.
Despite cashing in its last two games, San Antonio is still on ATS slumps of 2-5 on Sunday, 1-4 against the Western Conference and 3-9-1 when coming off a double-digit loss. The Hornets are in pointspread nosedives of 2-5 overall, 1-7 after a SU defeat, 5-12 after a non-cover and 0-4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous contest.
The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these clubs and 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in New Orleans. Additionally, the Hornets are on “under” streaks of 8-0 overall, 5-0 at home, 5-0 against the Western Conference, 4-0 in divisional games and 6-0 when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, San Antonio has followed up a 5-0 “under” stretch by topping the total in its last three.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER
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