Cajun-Sports
1* SELECTION
CONNECTICUT -10' over Virginia
The Big East's Huskies look to improve to 3-0 on Saturday when they host the ACC's Cavaliers, who are 1-1 on the season.
After getting blown out by top-ranked USC, 52-7, on opening weekend, Virginia grinded out a 16-0 win over 1-AA Richmond last weekend. This game will be the first road trip for the Cavs and their only non-conference road game this season.
In a rain-drenched game, Connecticut slipped by Temple in overtime last weekend, 12-9. Now, the Huskies are aiming for a 10th straight home victory, and would love to get it in revenge style for a 17-16 loss at Virginia last year.
Once again, the Cavaliers offense struggled against the Richmond Spiders, as Virginia's running "attack" was held to 91 yards and an average of 2.4 ypc. Peter Lalich went 21-of-39 for 204 yards and two INTs, and now he is out for this game with the Huskies, so that he can concentrate on legal problems and not be a distraction to the team.
If it weren't for junior tailback Donald Brown, UConn almost certainly wouldn't be shooting for 3-0 this weekend. Against Temple, Brown ran for a career-high 214 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown on the Huskies first possession of overtime.
At this point, both teams look to have better defenses than offenses; however, we like UConn's chances of continuing their good defensive play, while the Cavaliers are likely to cave according to the numbers. Under Al Groh, Virginia is a horrible 0-12 SU (-18.9) & 0-12 ATS (-14.3) on the road after allowing less than 14 points and not an ATS loss of 6+ points, as well as 0-5 ATS (-15.3 ppg) vs. non-conference opponents and not favored by more than 6 points.
In a strong dichotomy of angles, we find that the Cavs are 0-5-1 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points vs. opponents playing with revenge, while the Huskies are 9-0 ATS at home with revenge and not an underdog of more than 23 points.
The price is certainly right for Connecticut here, as they are 5-0 ATS (+31.6 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) as a favorite of more than 7 points and less than 30 points since 2004.
Finally, our database research shows that with a short week coming up before another home game, home favorites have taken care of business under the circumstances outlined by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a home favorite of 3-42' points before a lined home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win vs. an opponent not off a lined SU win.
Since at least 1980 these teams are 17-0 SU & 16-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average. The Huskies qualify as a PLAY ON team for the system and we like their chances here to roll over the Cavaliers for a solid SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 31 VIRGINIA 10
<!-- / message -->