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Bettorsworld
3* South Carolina +7 over Georgia
We should have sent this game out when the numbers came out on Sunday Night when there were still +8's on the board. Bookmaker.com, the first to post the lines each week, opened up at 8. Every point helps and it's essential to get the best number on any play you make. But still plenty of value left getting a touchdown in this match up. This play is pretty much an automatic. The SEC is still one of the strongest, if not the strongest conference in College Football. All one needs to do is glance at any SEC teams schedule from a year ago, or any year for that matter, and you'll learn to expect the unexpected. It's perhaps the most exciting conference with some of the best games year in and year out.
When you look at any game, you first have to throw the pointspread out the window. You're first question should always be, can the team I'm looking to back, win this game? Particularly in the case of an underdog. You should never look at a dog, and play the game because you think a team can hang within a number. That's a losing approach. Heck, if you can predict that a team is going to lose but by less than 7, well, you deserve an award. The ideal betting situation is to back a dog that can win straight up, making the points a bonus. So, can South Carolina beat Georgia?
To answer that, let's take a look back to last year. Early season handicapping is much different than mid to late season handicapping where you can use a statistical approach, common opponents and such. Two games into a season, you need to make assumptions based on the first two games, often against weak opponents however in some instances you can take a look at the prior year.
We first need to recognize that these teams are largely intact from a year ago. Georgia returns 8 on offense and 9 on defense while South Carolina returns 7 on offense and 10 on defense. In looking back to last year, you can perhaps understand why SC is a 7 point home dog this week as we have two teams that have gone in different directions since midway last year. Georgia won 7 straight and is 2-0 already this year while SC is 1-6 going back to last year and their collapse down the stretch and are coming off a loss at Vandy where they didn't look good at all. But it's not as if they weren't competitive. There's a two point loss to Clemson and an overtime loss to the Vols thrown in there. But the pressure is on Spurrier for sure. There are high expectations for this years team.. The talent is there. Any shortcomings will fall squarely on the shoulders of the Ol Ball Coach. (By the way the Vandy loss shouldn't surprise anyone. We've pointed out numerous times already this year that Vandy beats good teams EVERY year. Last year Georgia only squeaked by Vandy by a field goal)
Much has been made about Spurrier and his struggling offense. But these very same things have been said since he's been at SC. His teams have started slow offensively. This offense will get going. There's a lot to be said about starting the season against weak opposition the way Georgia and many other teams do. There's no preseason in College ball. It takes a few games to get the kinks out. Look for the SC offense to get better each week. Since we're backing SC this week, now would be a good time for improvement.
Prior to each season we do an evaluation of all the teams in each conference. Heading into this year, we had South Carolina pegged as a "good" SEC team. What does "good" mean? It means a record of anywhere from 6 wins on up to 9 or so, with the ability to beat any other SEC team on any given day. We had Georgia pegged as "very good". Very good translates into a 9 or 10 win season and with a few bounces, who knows. But it won't be easy. It never is in the SEC. We're not going to back off our opinion that you'll be hearing plenty more from South Carolina this year. There's just no reason to expect otherwise. They figure to continue to get better on both sides of the ball each week. Their key starters have played together as a team for some time now and will continue to grow as a team. The same can be said for Georgia. We expect a tough, smash mouth SEC game here with the outcome in doubt after 3 quarters. There's simply too much on the line here for both teams to expect anything else. We'll gladly take +7 here and look forward to seeing a much better SC team than we have seen thus far. Gamecocks star receiver Kenny McKinley is listed as doubtful for this game due to a hamstring injury which of course is huge, but we're still going to take our chances here in a game that has all the makings of a last second field goal to win it. 3* South Carolina +7
2* Georgia Tech +7 over Virginia Tech
It should come as no surprise to see us keying in on the same teams several times throughout the year. Every year we're presented with opportunities where perhaps teams just aren't getting the respect in the line that they deserve while others, are getting respect based on reputation and past history rather than what they have done this year. In this instance, we have a little of both. Virginia Tech is a very good program. They win 10 or 11 games every year and recruit well. They also field one of the best defensive units in the country year after year.
Virginia Tech suffered some major losses in offensive personnel this year. Key targets are gone. There's uncertainty at QB and it's showed through two games. They lost their opener to East Carolina and struggled last week against Furman managing just a field goal in the first half and only 68 yards through the air the entire game. Now that's cause for concern considering we are talking about Furman, who last year gave up 54 points to Citadel and 49 to Elon.
Virginia Tech was outgained by East Carolina 211-139 thru the air and 158-104 on the ground. Last week against Furman they gave up 213 passing yards while getting most of their yardage on the ground in a game which saw the first down edge go to Tech by just one, 14-13. These aren't Virginia Tech like numbers two games into the season. Now they'll have to deal with Paul Johnsons triple option in their very first conference game of the year. To be fair Virginia Tech started slow last year as well, getting blown out by LSU 48-7 but ended up winning 11 games and the ACC championship.
But there appears to be an opening here for Georgia Tech to take a shot. This offense figures to give teams fits all year, especially early in the year and especially a defense with lots of new faces. With both of these squads doing most of their damage on the ground, we have another situation where the game figures to be shortened with the outcome in doubt heading into the 4th quarter. Sound familiar? We used that approach last week with the BC game. As a bettor, if you can put yourself in a position to win a game, straight up, heading into the 4th quarter, while taking +7 with a dog, you'll find yourself winning more games than you lose. The trick is finding the games that figure to be close.
Concerns? Yes. Our biggest concern is Georgia Tech's turnovers. They turned the ball over like crazy in their spring game and in scrimmages and resumed the turnover plague last week against BC. Virginia Tech has made a living off of turnovers for many years. Georgia Tech needs to do a much better job of holding on to the ball. If they blow this one, you can be sure it will as a result of key turnovers.
Also note Paul Johnsons pointspread success on the road while at Navy. He was 18-8 against the number as a road dog the past 8 years there and the option attack played a big role in that success. Georgia Tech + 7
1* Fresno pk -110 over Wisconsin 1st quarter
1* Fresno pk -105 over Wisconsin 1st half
In perhaps the 2nd best game of the week, Wisconsin travels west to take on Fresno State in a non conference affair. Several things point to this as a potential upset game, although with Wisconsin only favored by a deuce I guess it wouldn't be much of an upset. Fresno State and coach Pat Hill have been known for 12 years as willing to take on anyone, anywhere. Thru the years, they have done just that and have pulled off some great upsets along the way. Pat Hill is a master motivator in getting his kids to buy into the us against them mentality. The "we get no respect" approach if you will and long before this season started billed this game as the biggest game in the history of the program. Think Fresno and it's fans will be pumped?
Of course anytime a team like Fresno gets to host a BCS school like Wisconsin, it's huge. It truly is a chance for Fresno to insert itself into the national picture and earn some respect, which makes Pat Hill's motivational job kind of easy actually. Over the years Fresno has knocked off some Giants. The highest ranked team ever to come into Fresno to play a game was Oregon State back in 2001. They were ranked #10, just like Wisky is now, and left with their tail between their legs after losing to Fresno 44-24. Also in 2001, they traveled to Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers 32-20 and then returned the following year and lost a 2 point decision. Since then they have knocked of Kansas State, lost a close shootout to USC and almost beat them while USC was ranked #1, almost beat Oregon twice and had a few 9+ win seasons.
But a closer look also shows us that Fresno hasn't always been competitive against big time programs. During this time there have also been some lopsided losses. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Boise, Hawaii, LSU and Oregon all beat Fresno comfortably. In fact they have lost more games to big time programs than they have one, so perhaps the wins get magnified and the losses kind of get swept under the rug. While they are a dangerous team, it's not as if they have a spotless record of upsetting big schools, or for that matter even playing them close.
Certainly when looking at their schedule a year ago, there's nothing to suggest that they are a force to be reckoned with judging from having been in shootouts with teams like Nevada, Idaho and Utah State. Of course the schedule is always the knock on teams like Fresno and always will be, magnifying the importance of these opportunities.
Wisconsin not exactly dominant a year ago either. A good year, but not great. They had their share of shootouts as well, with the likes of Mich State and Illinois and didn't put away teams they should have. Since both return a large number of starters, judging from last year, the door would seem to be open for Fresno here. Can't tell much from either teams performances so far this year as Wisky beat two cupcakes and we really don't know who good, or bad, Rutgers is yet.
We've already mentioned the emotional angle here. Motivational edges in college ball are huge. But there can also be a downside at times. There are times when the motivation isn't enough to last 60 minutes and talent takes over. We've all heard of the story about the 90 lb woman who was able to lift a car off the ground to save her child. That same woman could never repeat that feat under normal circumstances. Well, we're going to use that approach here. We simply aren't certain about the Fresno talent level. It's possible that once the adrenalin wears off and the talent on the field takes over, Fresno may have a tough time dealing with Wisconsin's size. Getting pounded by 300 pounders all day long can have that kind of affect.
But there's no doubt that Fresno will be sky high to start the game under that state, could probably play with anyone in the country for 15 or 30 minutes. So we're going to make two small 1* plays here on the 1st quarter and the 1st half.1* Fresno pk -110 over Wisconsin 1st quarter & 1* Fresno pk -105 over Wisconsin 1st half
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