SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (52-35) at St. Louis (49-39)
This N.L. Central rivalry continues with two veteran pitchers scheduled to square off as the Cubs send southpaw Ted Lilly (9-5, 4.56 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium to take on the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse (10-2, 3.67).
Chicago got a boost from the return of ace Carlos Zambrano on Friday with a 2-1 victory over the Cardinals, moving 3½ games ahead of St. Louis in the N.L. Central. The two teams have split four games this season after the Cubs won 11 of 16 last year. Despite last night’s win, the Cubs are still on slides of 3-8 on the road, 0-7 as a road ‘dog, 2-6 on the highway against right-handed starters and 2-4 against teams from the N.L. Central.
Meanwhile the Cardinals are just 2-6 in their last eight at Busch Stadium, but they are on positive streaks of 13-3 on Saturdays and 4-2 against N.L. Central Division foes.
Lilly is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three outings, and the Cubs have won his last five starts, including Monday when he held the Giants to two runs over eight innings of a 9-2 victory in San Francisco. He beat the Cards back on May 3 when he gave up three runs over seven innings of a 9-3 victory, improving to 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA in seven lifetime starts against St. Louis.
Lohse is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Busch Stadium this season and he allowed just one unearned run over seven innings of a 7-1 home win over the Mets on Monday. The Cardinals have won eight of his last nine starts, and the right-hander has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in eight of those outings. Lohse was on the opposite side of that May 3 start against Lilly and gave up eight runs on nine hits in six innings, falling to 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.
The Cubs are on runs of 6-0 when Lilly opposes teams with a winning record, 4-0 when he gets four days of rest and 5-2 when he pitches on Saturday. St. Louis is on streaks of 6-0 when Lohse faces a team with a winning mark, 4-0 when he toils at home and 5-1 when he goes on four days’ rest.
For Chicago, the over is 7-2 in its last nine against right-handed starters, 5-2 against winning teams, 8-3 overall and 7-3 on the highway. For the Cardinals, the over is 11-4-1 as a favorite, 9-3-1 as a home favorite and 5-2-2 at home against southpaws. However, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry and 5-1-1 in the past seven clashes in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (52-37) at N.Y. Yankees (45-42)
The Red Sox have taken the first two of this four-game weekend set and now send young Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.75 ERA) to the hill to face the Yankees and veteran right-hander Mike Mussina (10-6, 3.87) in the Bronx.
Boston won Friday’s Fourth of July contest 6-4 after taking Thursday’s series opener 7-0. The Red Sox have now won five of the last six meetings between these two and three straight in New York. The two straight wins to start this series come on the heels of Boston’s five-game road losing skid.
New York has lost four of five on this current homestand and five of six overall, and the Yankees are just 1-5 in their last six games as chalk. On a positive note, Joe Girardi’s club is 5-1 in its last six Saturday outings and it is on a 39-12 roll in the third game of a series.
The Red Sox are 5-3 in Masterson’s eight starts this season, but in Tampa Bay on Monday he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings of a 5-4 loss.
The Yankees have lost three of Mussina’s last four starts, and they’re also 0-5 in his last five against the Red Sox as he’s allowed 23 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings. For his career, Mussina is 19-17 with a 3.80 ERA in 54 starts against Boston.
New York is 4-1 with Mussina on the hill on Saturday and 5-0 when he starts the third game of a series. Boston is on skids of 10-21 on the road against winning teams and 5-10 as a ‘dog.
The under is 7-4-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall, 6-2 in the Yankees’ last eight overall, 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 at home and 13-5 in their past 18 versus A.L. East foes. With Mussina on the hill, the under is 4-1 in his last five and 10-4-1 when he faces a team with a winning record at Yankee Stadium. Conversely, the over has been the play in five of the last six series battles between these rivals this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Toronto (41-46) at L.A. Angels (52-34)
The Angels send the hottest pitcher in baseball to the hill today when John Lackey (6-1, 1.44 ERA) takes on the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay (9-6, 2.90) in a battle of aces at Angels Stadium in Anaheim.
Jered Weaver delivered a quality start for the Angels on Friday and the offense carried him to an 8-2 victory. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight meetings with Toronto and five of the last seven when the Blue Jays have sent Halladay to the mound. Overall, the Angels are on hot streaks of 5-1 against the A.L. East and 62-25 in the second game of a series, while the Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 on the road and 1-4 in their last five on Saturdays.
Lackey is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home this season. Only twice this year hast the right-hander allowed more than one earned run in a game, and in his most recent effort on Sunday, he shut out the Dodgers over 8 2/3 innings, giving up three hits in a 1-0 Angels’ win. For his career, Lackey is 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA in nine starts against Toronto, and in two starts versus the Jays this season he’s allowed two earned runs in 15 innings with Los Angeles winning both games.
Halladay is coming off a complete-game shutout in Seattle on Monday, limiting the Mariners to four hits in a 2-0 Toronto win, snapping a string of three straight Blue Jays’ losses with Halladay on the hill. He’s 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, and in his last one he gave up three runs on 12 hits over eight innings of a 3-0 loss last August.
Toronto is 68-33 in Halladay’s last 101 starts and 35-16 when he gets four days of rest, but they are just 2-5 in his past seven on Saturday and 6-13 in his last 19 on grass. The Angels are 36-15 in Lackey’s last 51 outings and 40-18 in his last 58 as a home favorite.
The under is on runs of 16-6 when Halladay is an underdog, 12-4 when he’s a road pup, 13-3-2 when Lackey is a favorite and 5-1-1 when Lackey works in front of the home crowd.
As a team, the Blue Jays have stayed under in 43 of their last 67 against the A.L. West. The under is also 45-21-5 in the Angels’ last 71 overall, 28-14-3 in their last 45 as a home favorite and 35-16-4 in the second game of a series. Finally, even though last night’s game topped the total, the under is still 39-13-5 in the last 57 meetings between these teams, including 19-8-2 in the last 29 when playing in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER<!-- / message -->
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (52-35) at St. Louis (49-39)
This N.L. Central rivalry continues with two veteran pitchers scheduled to square off as the Cubs send southpaw Ted Lilly (9-5, 4.56 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium to take on the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse (10-2, 3.67).
Chicago got a boost from the return of ace Carlos Zambrano on Friday with a 2-1 victory over the Cardinals, moving 3½ games ahead of St. Louis in the N.L. Central. The two teams have split four games this season after the Cubs won 11 of 16 last year. Despite last night’s win, the Cubs are still on slides of 3-8 on the road, 0-7 as a road ‘dog, 2-6 on the highway against right-handed starters and 2-4 against teams from the N.L. Central.
Meanwhile the Cardinals are just 2-6 in their last eight at Busch Stadium, but they are on positive streaks of 13-3 on Saturdays and 4-2 against N.L. Central Division foes.
Lilly is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three outings, and the Cubs have won his last five starts, including Monday when he held the Giants to two runs over eight innings of a 9-2 victory in San Francisco. He beat the Cards back on May 3 when he gave up three runs over seven innings of a 9-3 victory, improving to 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA in seven lifetime starts against St. Louis.
Lohse is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Busch Stadium this season and he allowed just one unearned run over seven innings of a 7-1 home win over the Mets on Monday. The Cardinals have won eight of his last nine starts, and the right-hander has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in eight of those outings. Lohse was on the opposite side of that May 3 start against Lilly and gave up eight runs on nine hits in six innings, falling to 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.
The Cubs are on runs of 6-0 when Lilly opposes teams with a winning record, 4-0 when he gets four days of rest and 5-2 when he pitches on Saturday. St. Louis is on streaks of 6-0 when Lohse faces a team with a winning mark, 4-0 when he toils at home and 5-1 when he goes on four days’ rest.
For Chicago, the over is 7-2 in its last nine against right-handed starters, 5-2 against winning teams, 8-3 overall and 7-3 on the highway. For the Cardinals, the over is 11-4-1 as a favorite, 9-3-1 as a home favorite and 5-2-2 at home against southpaws. However, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry and 5-1-1 in the past seven clashes in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (52-37) at N.Y. Yankees (45-42)
The Red Sox have taken the first two of this four-game weekend set and now send young Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.75 ERA) to the hill to face the Yankees and veteran right-hander Mike Mussina (10-6, 3.87) in the Bronx.
Boston won Friday’s Fourth of July contest 6-4 after taking Thursday’s series opener 7-0. The Red Sox have now won five of the last six meetings between these two and three straight in New York. The two straight wins to start this series come on the heels of Boston’s five-game road losing skid.
New York has lost four of five on this current homestand and five of six overall, and the Yankees are just 1-5 in their last six games as chalk. On a positive note, Joe Girardi’s club is 5-1 in its last six Saturday outings and it is on a 39-12 roll in the third game of a series.
The Red Sox are 5-3 in Masterson’s eight starts this season, but in Tampa Bay on Monday he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings of a 5-4 loss.
The Yankees have lost three of Mussina’s last four starts, and they’re also 0-5 in his last five against the Red Sox as he’s allowed 23 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings. For his career, Mussina is 19-17 with a 3.80 ERA in 54 starts against Boston.
New York is 4-1 with Mussina on the hill on Saturday and 5-0 when he starts the third game of a series. Boston is on skids of 10-21 on the road against winning teams and 5-10 as a ‘dog.
The under is 7-4-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall, 6-2 in the Yankees’ last eight overall, 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 at home and 13-5 in their past 18 versus A.L. East foes. With Mussina on the hill, the under is 4-1 in his last five and 10-4-1 when he faces a team with a winning record at Yankee Stadium. Conversely, the over has been the play in five of the last six series battles between these rivals this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Toronto (41-46) at L.A. Angels (52-34)
The Angels send the hottest pitcher in baseball to the hill today when John Lackey (6-1, 1.44 ERA) takes on the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay (9-6, 2.90) in a battle of aces at Angels Stadium in Anaheim.
Jered Weaver delivered a quality start for the Angels on Friday and the offense carried him to an 8-2 victory. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight meetings with Toronto and five of the last seven when the Blue Jays have sent Halladay to the mound. Overall, the Angels are on hot streaks of 5-1 against the A.L. East and 62-25 in the second game of a series, while the Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 on the road and 1-4 in their last five on Saturdays.
Lackey is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home this season. Only twice this year hast the right-hander allowed more than one earned run in a game, and in his most recent effort on Sunday, he shut out the Dodgers over 8 2/3 innings, giving up three hits in a 1-0 Angels’ win. For his career, Lackey is 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA in nine starts against Toronto, and in two starts versus the Jays this season he’s allowed two earned runs in 15 innings with Los Angeles winning both games.
Halladay is coming off a complete-game shutout in Seattle on Monday, limiting the Mariners to four hits in a 2-0 Toronto win, snapping a string of three straight Blue Jays’ losses with Halladay on the hill. He’s 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, and in his last one he gave up three runs on 12 hits over eight innings of a 3-0 loss last August.
Toronto is 68-33 in Halladay’s last 101 starts and 35-16 when he gets four days of rest, but they are just 2-5 in his past seven on Saturday and 6-13 in his last 19 on grass. The Angels are 36-15 in Lackey’s last 51 outings and 40-18 in his last 58 as a home favorite.
The under is on runs of 16-6 when Halladay is an underdog, 12-4 when he’s a road pup, 13-3-2 when Lackey is a favorite and 5-1-1 when Lackey works in front of the home crowd.
As a team, the Blue Jays have stayed under in 43 of their last 67 against the A.L. West. The under is also 45-21-5 in the Angels’ last 71 overall, 28-14-3 in their last 45 as a home favorite and 35-16-4 in the second game of a series. Finally, even though last night’s game topped the total, the under is still 39-13-5 in the last 57 meetings between these teams, including 19-8-2 in the last 29 when playing in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER<!-- / message -->
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