STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/31/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 5/31/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 30)
San Antonio's Tim Duncan put it best, "This is the craziest series I've ever been involved in." The Spurs connected on 57.5 percent in Game #1 and 50.0 percent in Game #2, averaging 117.0 PPG at home to take a 2-0 lead in the series. However, Serge Ibaka's unexpected return when the series shifted to Oklahoma City made a HUGE impact. Oklahoma City looked like a new team, playing with renewed confidence and energy, OKC's youngsters rolled past their veteran counterparts in Games #3 and #4 to tie the series at two-all. The Thunder appeared to have things figured out, as OKC played a more physical defensive style in Games #3 and #4 plus used its length and athletic ability to disrupt the Spurs' normally precise offense.
That is until the Spurs got to return home Thursday night. The first quarter ended 32-all but San Antonio opened a 10-point lead by halftime. The Spurs then doubled that advantage, taking a 20-point lead into the 4th quarter, before extending the lead even further in an eventual 117-89 victory. San Antonio was back to playing its game, shooting 51.3 percent as a team, including a blistering 13 of 26 on threes. The Spurs started Matt Bonner in place of Tiago Splitter to draw Ibaka out of the paint and it worked early. It also helped defensively, as Ibaka attacked Bonner but missed his first FIVE shots on a series of running hooks. Duncan also was able to help defensively, rolling over to block a layup attempt by Ibaka.
Duncan and Ginobili both played poorly in Game #4 but each one responded with excellent Game #5 efforts. Duncan had 22 and 12, while Ginobili made 7 of 9 shots for 19 points (also added four rebounds and six assists). That DEEP San Antonio bench won "the battle of the reserves," 55-to-26! Ibaka was totally neutralized (six points and two rebounds in 27 minutes), while Durant added a 'quiet' 25 and Westbrook, off that 40-point game, scored a modest 21. The Thunder scored only 34 points in the second half, after scoring 32 points alone, in the first quarter.
The Spurs have won SEVEN straight home games by at least 15 points, dating back to Game #7 of the first round against Dallas. That is the longest such streak in National Basketball Association playoff history! The Thunder may have erased a 2-0 best-of-seven series deficit by tying the series 2-2 but they are now down 3-2 and must win Game #6 at home and then Game #7 at San Antonio, to capture the series. NBA playoff history tells us that teams down 0-2 which "get even" at two-all, have gone on to win just 15 of 70 previous series (that's just 21.4%).
Thursday evening marked another win and cover by the home team here in the conference finals. That makes it 9-1 straight-up and versus the number, after home teams just barely won 50 percent of their games SU the first two rounds (38-34 or .528). Home teams were a woeful 27-43-3 ATS (that's 39.1%!) those first two rounds but have fought back to stand 47-35 (.573) for the postseason to-date, going 36-43-3 ATS (45.6% or minus-11.3 net games). Over players have had the best of it so far this postseason but under bettors have now won THREE nights in a row, staying under by one point, a half-point and one point, respectively! Still, the tally since the start of the 2014 playoffs is 46 overs and 36 unders, a 56.1% edge favoring over bettors. "Zig-Zaggers" won with the Spurs Thursday night and remain a "small winner" since the beginning, at 36-29-3 ATS (plus-4.1 net games).
We are back in South Beach for Game #6 of the Eastern Conference finals Friday night, as the Pacers look to take Step No. 2 in an attempt to accomplish the improbable, come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a best-of-seven series. There have been 222 teams in NBA history to have fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series but just EIGHT of those teams (a 'whopping' 3.6%) have come back to win. Making it even tougher on Indiana is the fact that the Pacers will need to make their 3-1 comeback versus the two-time defending champs, looking to join the Celtics and Lakers by reaching a FOURTH straight NBA Finals. The Pacers realize that this journey seems like "a bridge too far" but their Game #5 win broke some new ground (the Heat had been a PERFECT 7-0 in Game Fives when holding a 3-1 lead in the LBJ/Wade/Bosh era, which began in 2011), so maybe the Pacers are "on to something?"
Then again, maybe they aren't. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra almost never holds a practice the day after a road game, especially when the team plane lands around 3:30 a.m. However, Spoelstra deviated from the norm on the day before Game #6 of this East title series, not for any one on-court issue but rather so the two-time defending NBA champions could relieve some frustration. "Clear heads ...and to connect," Spoelstra said. "We didn't want to leave it all to tomorrow. There were some things we wanted to go over, and for time's sake, splitting it up was a little bit more efficient."
Incredibly but we guess predictably these days, the talk on the off day wasn't so much about Paul George scoring 37 points to lead his team to a season-saving win, or even how LeBron James was held to seven points (a career playoff-low) on a night that he was rendered silent for long stretches because of foul trouble. Rather, the buzz was almost entirely about Lance Stephenson, who has simultaneously become a Heat frustration and Internet sensation.
Images of his already-infamous ear-blowing stunt were widely distributed on social media moments after it occurred in Game #5 and he didn't back down Thursday when asked about his desire to pester the Heat. "Just playing ball, man, having fun and enjoying the moment," Stephenson said. Spoelstra didn't react when Stephenson, who said James was showing signs of "weakness" earlier in the series, crashed the Heat huddle. Much like his players, Spoelstra didn't bite when asked about the excitable Pacer guard's attempts to throw Miami off its game. ESPN carries Friday evening's game at 8:30 PM EST, with the Heat favored by 7 1/2 points (total is 182 1/2).
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Western Conference Finals
#523 SAN ANTONIO @ #524 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -4, Total: 206.5) - The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from returning to the National Basketball Association Finals but have a dubious streak to overcome if they are to end the Western Conference finals on Saturday night. San Antonio owns a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns to Oklahoma City, where the Spurs have lost nine consecutive games dating back to March 16, 2012. The Thunder easily won Games #3 and #4 at home and look to force a Game #7 in San Antonio.
The Spurs rolled to a convincing 117-89 victory in Game #5 as the home venue continues to be the most important facet of the series. San Antonio has won its three home games by an average of 26.7 points and lost the two outings in Oklahoma City by an average of 11. Thunder star Kevin Durant isn’t looking at a Game #6 win as a mere formality despite Oklahoma City’s long home-court domination of the Spurs. “We’re guaranteed 48 more minutes,” Durant told reporters. “It’s been an up-and-down series but we’ve got to find a way to come with it in Game #6.”
•ABOUT THE SPURS (73-26 SU, 53-46-0 ATS): Veteran power forward Tim Duncan was back on his game with 22 points and 12 rebounds after averaging 12.5 points and seven boards in the two losses in Oklahoma City. He shot a series-best 8-of-13 from the field in Game #5 and played with an extreme level of determination. “Just wanted to put a better one on the floor and, obviously, didn’t want to go down three games in a row,” Duncan said afterward. Duncan had more room to operate inside due to the decision to stretch the floor by starting perimeter-oriented Matt Bonner over center Tiago Splitter.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (69-31 SU, 52-45-3 ATS): Oklahoma City’s longtime home dominance means nothing when the ball tips off in Game #6, and failing to win a 10th straight time would equate to a disappointing end to the season. The Thunder looked bad in Games #1 and #2 but bounced back, and coach Scott Brooks is at a loss to grasp the one-sided nature of each contest in the series. “It’s interesting, you really can’t explain it because both teams are really good and both teams compete, but it’s the way it is,” Brooks said after Game #5. “We have to regroup and come back better in a few days. We’ve always had a great comeback with better energy and better defensive attitude, and that’s what we’re going to have to come back with.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Spurs SG Danny Green was just 4-of-16 shooting in the two previous games in Oklahoma City – he is 17-of-27 (including 15-of-23 from 3-point range) in the games played in San Antonio.... Thunder PG Russell Westbrook had 21 points in Game #5 – well below the 40 he put up in Game #4 – and is averaging 25.4 points in the series.... San Antonio G Manu Ginobili is 14-for-23 from 3-point range in the series while averaging 15.2 points.... OKC is 12-4 versus the spread (75.0%) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Spurs are 25-16 against the spread (60.9%) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game, including 21-11 ATS (65.6%) 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 609 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 366 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 514 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 466 times. In 1000 simulated games, 558 games went under the total, while 442 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 605 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 373 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under first half total, while 454 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-42 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-37 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 84 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 45-43 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--45 of 86 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Spurs are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Under is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Under is 5-0 in Thunder L5 after allowing 100 points or more LG.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), revenging a blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(72-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.9%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (74-37 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 97.4 (Average point differential = +5.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 45 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (197-203).
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