Teddy Covers | CFB Side Sat, 11/29/14 - 12:30 PM
Dime bet Boston College -11.5 vs Syracuse
Analysis: 1* Take Boston College
I’ll let Syracuse head Coach Scott Shafer makes the case for Boston College here. Shafer’s quotes speak volumes about the hapless Orange as they hit the highway for their meaningless (for them) season finale:
Shafer: “We’ve been through a rash of injuries that I’ve never been around in my 24 years of coaching….Just looking at the depth chart, seeing who we’re playing, who we’re moving around, it’s been difficult that way,. Preseason depth chart, we’re starting a quarterback that was third or fourth. Middle linebacker, third or fourth guys, frankly, wide receiver, the whole line really, it’s just been crazy. One of those crazy years.
Shafer’s ‘trying to keep it upbeat’ quote doesn’t inspire much confidence either: “I don’t look at it as we’re staggering into the last game. I look at it as we’re fighting with a lot of youth and inexperience into the last game. What a great way to introduce a lot of young guys that are playing a little bit earlier than we thought they were going to in a great rivalry in this conference.”
Syracuse has been playing non-competitive football for the last month, losing each of their last four games while failing to score more than 17 points in any of them. Meanwhile, Boston College, at home on senior day, is playing with real confidence after taking mighty Florida State to the wire last Saturday. With 124 combined career starts on their offensive line, the Eagles are ranked #11 in the country at running the football, more than capable of wearing down Syracuse’s tired defense as this game progresses. Look for Tyler Murphy’s dual threat capabilities to lead the home favorite to a comfortable double digit victory here against a foe without much gas left in the tank. Take Boston College.
Pick Made: Nov 28 2014 8:58AM PST
CFB Side Sat, 11/29/14 - 3:30 PM
Double-dime bet Minnesota 15.0 vs Wisconsin
Analysis: 2* Take Minnesota
Here’s what I wrote last week supporting Minnesota as a double digit underdog at Nebraska; a game they won in outright fashion. While the quality of opposition gets stronger this week, the point spread is higher and the Gophers can still lose this game by two touchdowns and still cash our winning bet.
“The betting markets have been lagging behind Minnesota all year, and they haven't recognized that it's Minnesota, not Nebraska that controls their own destiny in the conference -- the Gophers will get a rematch against Ohio State in the Big 10 title game if they win their last two regular season games. Head coach Jerry Kill, talking about the steady improvement of the program. "Our kids are a different team than what we've been. We've gotten much better. Winning on the road in the Big Ten or anywhere is not easy to do. That's what we have to do to put ourselves in position to win our (division)....We're in a situation where we're playing for something in November." Kill said he laid out Minnesota's path to the division title right after last week's spread covering loss to Ohio State. "It's better to be in control of your own destiny than to have to see somebody else win or lose and so forth. We're excited about the opportunity of being in the situation we're in. At the same time you have to go take advantage of it."
The betting markets are very concerned with the status of Minnesota’s star running back David Cobb, knocked out of last week’s game with a hamstring injury. I like the Gopher’s chances to cover regardless of whether Cobb plays or not. It’s not like Minnesota doesn’t have other solid backs, with Berkley Edwards, Donnell Kirkwood and Roderick Williams all capable of moving the chains. And the Gophers defense contained Ameer Abdullah last week, so I’m not expecting Melvin Gordon to run wild on them here. Minnesota held Wisconsin to 20 points on 324 total yards last year. A similar performance on Saturday would be no surprise to this bettor in a game that has all the makings of a ‘down to the wire’ type contest. Take Minnesota.
Pick Made: Nov 28 2014 9:00AM PST
CFB Side Sat, 11/29/14 - 1:00 PM
Dime bet Colorado 9.5 vs Utah
Analysis: 1* Take Colorado
This is Colorado’s role. The Buffaloes have covered the spread in all three recent meetings with Utah, pulling off one outright upset and losing by only a TD in the other two meetings, cashing by a combined 49 points in those three games. The Buffs have already covered as home dogs this year against the likes of Arizona State and UCLA, continuing their solid ATS record at home in the Mike McIntyre era.
Colorado is winless in PAC-12 play and McIntyre isn’t very happy about it, focusing on this matchup with the Utes as their chance to finally break through: “Week-in-week-out, we’ve played better in the Pac-12 this year than we did last year, and we got one Pac-12 win last year. This year, I definitely think we should have had four or five (conference wins), and we didn’t. So, I think it will eventually come, there’s no doubt about it. We want to win every game we play, but we definitely want to win this one.”
And frankly, Colorado might have the better offense here, not typical of home underdogs in this point spread range. After being benched for a half last week, starting QB Sefo Liufau is good to go this Saturday. MacIntyre: “Sefo is getting to practice this whole week. The week before, he didn't get to practice the whole time. He looks back to his old self." Liufau: “Their front seven, especially, they're up there with some of the best in the league. That's totally fine. I expect us to put some points up. We need to be consistent for four quarters and get the win."
Utah’s offense hasn’t been able to put up points all year, a team that’s been carried by their defense and special teams. The Utes haven’t won a game by more than three points since September, and they haven’t scored 30 in any of their last six contests, a team devoid of skill position talent. And, after a surprising start to the season, Utah’s ‘competing for a PAC-12 title’ dreams have been shredded in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. If the Utes manage to win this one at all, don’t expect it to come by margin! Take Colorado.
Pick Made: Nov 28 2014 9:01AM PST