Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton
Saturday's MLB winners ...
15 Dime: GIANTS on the run line (-1 1/2 runs over Padres)
NOTE: The Padres switched starting pitchers overnight from Luis Perdomo to Tim Stauffer. However, that switch doesn't change my opinion about this game at all and I want you to stick with this play on the Giants on the run line.
5 Dime: Yankees-Angels OVER the total... NOTE: Pettitte (New York) and Weaver (Los Angeles) must start this game or this play is VOID!
Giants (-1½ runs)
Let’s see, the Giants no-hit San Diego last night and have won the first two games of this series by the combined tally of 17-3. On top of that, they own the second-best record in the National League and are trotting out All-Star right-hander Matt Cain (10-2, 2.42 ERA) in this contest. Meanwhile, after last night’s embarrassing 8-0 loss, the Padres are now 16 games under .500, in last place in the N.L. West, they have the third-worst record in baseball and their pitching staff is in such disarray that they’re being forced to go down to the minor leagues and call-up journeyman Tim Stauffer, who hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2007 and is 4-7 with a 6.37 ERA in 17 career major-league appearances (eight starts).
Uh, you’re damn right I’m backing the Giants on the run line here!
In taking the first two games of this series, San Francisco is now 6-2 on its current homestand and has won 14 of its last 21 overall, including nine of 11 at home. With Cain on the hill, the Giants are 12-5 this season, including 8-1 at home where the right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.32 ERA. Of San Francisco’s 12 wins with Cain on the hill, 10 have come by multiple runs. That includes an 8-3 home rout of these Padres back on April 21, when Cain scattered nine hits and two runs over six innings, striking out five without walking a batter.
For his career, Cain has a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 16 starts against San Diego, with eight quality starts in his last 10 against the Padres, including seven games in which he held the Friars to two runs or fewer. Yes, Cain’s record is just 4-5 in those 16 starts against San Diego, but that’s because prior to this season, Cain absolutely had the worst luck of any starting pitcher in baseball, mostly due to poor run support. This season, though, the Giants are averaging more than 4.7 runs per game behind Cain, including an even 5 runs per game at home.
Cain comes into this game off of back-to-back gems against the Cardinals and Marlins, allowing a single earned run in each contest. In fact, Cain has allowed one or zero runs in eight of his last 10 starts and has given up more than two runs in a game just four times in 17 outings this season! No wonder he’s headed to the All-Star game, eh?
Bottom line, folks: By getting no-hit by a Giants pitcher who had been 2-8 with a 5.30 ERA this season, the Padres once again proved that they’re still THE worst offensive squad in baseball. In fact, their .232 team batting average is a full 10 points lower than the club that’s right above them (Oakland). Simply put, if they couldn’t hit Jonathan Sanchez last night – and don’t forget they were no-hit through six innings by Tim Lincecum in Thursday’s series opener, they’re not hitting Cain tonight.
Throw in the fact that the Padres have now lost six in a row and nine of 10 overall as well as 17 of 21 against right-handed starters, while the home team has won all 10 meetings this season in this rivalry and 15 of the last 18 since last summer, and this one’s a no-brainer. San Francisco cruises to yet another blowout victory behind Cain!
Yankees-Angels OVER
I’m aware of the fact that Andy Pettitte has pitched much better on the road than at home (his ERA is nearly three runs lower on foreign turf). And I’m also aware of the fact that Jered Weaver has been tough as nails at home this season with a 1.91 ERA and dynamite in day games as well (1.12 ERA).
However, I’ve gotta play the percentages here. For starters, these two pitchers squared off on May 1 at Yankee Stadium and the final score was 10-9, with Pettitte (five runs allowed) and Weaver (four) accounting for nearly half the runs allowed. Also, since return to the Bronx in 2007, Pettitte hasn’t fared well at all against the Angels, giving up 29 earned runs in six starts covering 34 1/3 innings (7.60 ERA), and Weaver has a 7.36 ERA in his last four starts against New York, all four of which have topped the total.
Now get a load of these numbers: After last night’s 10-6 win over New York, the Angels rank first in all of baseball in team batting (.282 average), sixth in runs scored (442) and fifth in on-base percentage (.346). New York is tied for second with the Dodgers in team batting (.276) and leads the league in runs scored (477), home runs (127) and on-base percentage. On the other hand, New York (4.43 ERA) and Los Angeles (4.76 ERA) are near the bottom of the standings in pitching. Not only that, but just three teams – the Nationals, Orioles and Indians – are giving up more baserunners per inning than these two clubs.
Finally, these squads have met four times this season and all four have been double-digit slugfests (11, 19, 12 and 16 runs scored) and 14 of the last 18 head-to-head meetings have gone OVER the total. In fact, 15 of the last 20 clashes have cracked the 10-run barrier. Add to all this the fact it will be a nice, warm Southern California afternoon – when the ball tends to jump out of Angel Stadium – and we’re looking at another Yankees-Angels slugfest. Play it OVER the total.
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME !!!
