STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 9/22/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #26
When it comes to clinching Major League Baseball teams, bettors beware. Teams that secure playoff berths with games to spare have a tendency to tinker with their rosters heading into the postseason, and that has had a significant impact on the outcomes of their games over the past three years. Here are three trends worth monitoring when it comes to betting on - or against - teams that already know they're headed to the playoffs:
•In The Playoffs? Take It Easy
In each of the past three years, teams that have clinched a division title or wild-card berth have performed well below their previous winning pace for the remainder of the regular season. Last season, teams entered their stretch of largely meaningless games with a cumulative .590 winning percentage but won at just a .520 clip the rest of the way. The difference was less pronounced in both 2012 (.578 to .545) and 2013 (.598 to .569), but still significant to bettors.
"While they're still playing for home-field advantage, if teams have already clinched a spot, then the games generally no longer mean quite as much," says StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo. "This can sometimes lead to regulars getting some extra rest and/or to a dropoff in overall intensity level."
Bettors should bear this in mind when considering how to approach the five teams that have already secured their division: Washington, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Angels. The Orioles finish against three likely non-playoff teams in Boston, the Yankees and Toronto, and will almost assuredly give their regulars some rest. The same may apply to the Nationals, who end with seven straight home games against the Mets and Marlins. The Angels finish with six road games against Oakland and Seattle - both fighting for a playoff spot - and should face a steady stream of regulars in both series, making them likely underdogs throughout.
•Value As An Underdog
While division and wild-card clinchers lose virtually all value as a favorite the rest of the way, they're still hot plays as underdogs. Last year's top teams went 6-4 as underdogs down the stretch, while clinchers finished 11-11 as dogs in 2012 and 6-6 in 2011. That doesn't necessarily make them a super-hot play moving forward, but consider that underdogs this season are converting at just under 43 percent this year - and haven't been higher than 43.14 percent over the past three years. With no clincher underdog winning percentage lower than 50 percent in any of the previous three seasons, they do represent a slightly better play compared to the norm.
Given the three teams presently locked into playoff spots, only the Angels appear to be obvious underdog candidates. The money-lines for the other two teams will depend heavily on whether they decide to rest starting pitchers or position players. Los Angeles probably won't be favored in any of its final six games, unless the Athletics and/or Mariners somehow fall out of playoff contention before then.
•Shrinking Totals
Totals bets are always a dicey proposition, but there's evidence - at least in the short-term - to suggest that clinchers play lower-scoring games down the stretch. The qualifying teams posted a 19-29-2 Over/Under mark in 2013 and a 20-34-1 Over/Under record in 2012. Even an Over-heavy result in 2011 - teams went 27-21-3 - comes with an explanation. The Milwaukee Brewers (5-0 O/U down the stretch) were playing for National League playoff seeding and boasted a pair of sensational offensive weapons in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (who was still competing for the batting title.), while the Detroit Tigers (11-4-1 O/U down the stretch) led the majors with a .280 average and had incredible lineup depth.
So why the strong Under results? "Likely just a product of watered down talent with September call-ups taking may spots in the order," says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor. "Pitchers aren't given quite as much rest, as it's generally better for them to stay on schedule leading up to the postseason."
Around The League
--The New York Yankees reinstated right-handed starter Masahiro Tanaka from the 60-day disabled list and he returned to the mound Sunday from a potentially serious elbow injury because he wanted peace of mind. That reassurance began in the bullpen when catcher Brian McCann and pitching coach Larry Rothchild saw a sharp split-fingered fastball and other pitches. Then it continued on the mound when Tanaka pitched 5 1/3 encouraging innings helping the New York Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays.
Tanaka's (13-4) first outing since July 8 in Cleveland was the featured attraction for the Yankees, who were 34-31 while he was rehabbing from right elbow inflammation that also was diagnosed as a partial tear of ulnar collateral ligament. "It's been a while since I've been out there," Tanaka said. "But overall I'm pretty satisfied." Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155 million contract with the Yankees last winter.
--Tim Bogar is the runaway favorite to be named manager of the Texas Rangers, according to USA Today. Bogar took over as interim manager of the Rangers when Ron Washington resigned on Sept. 5. The Rangers lost five of their first six games under Bogar, but responded with a season-high seven straight wins. After going 53-87 under Washington, the Rangers are 8-6 since Bogar took over. Bogar, 47, is 362-266 as a minor league manager. He has been manager of the year in three different minor leagues over five seasons. He has never been a full-time major league manager.
--Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman dropped his appeal of a six-game suspension from Major League Baseball. His ban was reduced to five games. Stroman, 23, was suspended and fined on Wednesday for throwing a pitch that sailed over the head of Baltimore Orioles batter Caleb Joseph during Monday's game. Stroman's pitch occurred a half-inning after Joseph blocked the plate as Toronto's Jose Reyes slid home.
--Houston Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel likely made his last start of the season on Saturday night, although no definitive decision has been made. Keuchel reached a career-high 200 innings for the season after working eight innings against Seattle. If Keuchel is shut down, rookie right-hander Nick Tropeano will likely start the season finale against the Mets in New York.
--Detroit Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who has not pitched since Aug. 8 because of a right pectoralis major strain, threw a simulated game Sunday, and he could be activated soon. Catcher Alex Avila, who has been out a week with a concussion, hit in the simulated game. If he feels good Monday, he would take concussion tests and be cleared to play if he passes.
--Boston Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli missed his fourth straight game with injuries to his finger and back. He hopes to return at some point during the final week of the regular season.
--New York Mets second baseman Dilson Herrera will likely miss the rest of the season after straining his right quad beating out an infield hit in the sixth inning on Saturday. The 20-year-old rookie, who hit a two-run homer earlier, had a .220 average with three homers and 11 RBIs in 18 games after being promoted from Double-A Binghamton.
--Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko was out of the lineup but said it had nothing to do with the hand injury that sidelined him from Sept. 2 until Friday. The Rays aired a short video tribute to Konerko, set to retire after this season, on the scoreboard during the game.
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Pirates-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Liriano is 3-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.
--Harang is 1-4, 5.34 in his last five starts.
--Pirates won nine of their last eleven games.
--Atlanta lost eight of its last nine games.
--Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
•Cardinals-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Wainwright is 4-0, 1.69 in his last four starts.
--Wood is 1-3, 5.46 in his last six starts.
--Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
--Cubs lost three of their last four games.
--Five of last seven St Louis games stayed under.
•Giants-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Peavy is 4-0, 1.33 in his last four starts.
--Haren is 3-1, 2.61 in his last five starts.
--Giants lost six of their last eight games.
--Dodgers won six of their last nine games.
--Four of last five San Francisco games stayed under total.
•Rockies-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Matzek is 4-1, 1.56 in his last five starts.
--Stults is 1-4, 5.86 in his last five starts.
--Colorado won last six games, scoring 61 runs.
--San Diego won six of its last seven games.
--Seven of last nine Colorado games went over total.
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MLB Super Situation Super Play
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American League
•Mariners-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Paxton is 3-2, 2.18 in his last five starts.
--Happ is 0-3, 4.74 in his last three starts.
--Mariners lost six of their last nine games.
--Toronto lost eight of its last ten games.
--Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total.
•Royals-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Duffy is 0-1, 3.54 in his last four starts; he left his last start in first inning with shoulder problems.
--Carrasco is 5-1, 1.17 in his last eight starts.
--Royals are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
--Indians won five of their last six games.
--Extra inning suspended game will be finished before scheduled game.
--Under is 7-1 in last eight Carrasco starts.
•White Sox-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Bassitt is 0-1, 5.16 in his three starts this season.
--Lobstein is 1-0, 3.68 in his four starts this year.
--White Sox lost seven of their last ten road games.
--Detroit won six of its last nine games.
--Over is 5-1-2 in last eight White Sox games.
•Orioles-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Chen is 3-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.
--Pineda is 1-3, 3.16 in his last four starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
--New York won four of their last five games.
--Seven of last ten Yankees games stayed under the total.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Tropeano is 1-1, 3.60 in his first two MLB starts.
--Holland is 1-0, 0.99 in four starts this season.
--Astros won last two games, are 4-6 in last ten.
--Rangers won eight of their last nine games.
--Six of last seven Texas games went over total.
•Angels-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Wilson is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts.
--Samardzija is 1-2, 1.89 in his last five starts.
--Angels lost four of their last six games.
--Oakland is 12-26 in last 38 games not started by Lester.
--Eight of last eleven Oakland games stayed under the total.
Interleague
•Diamondbacks-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Collmenter is 2-1, 1.26 in his last five starts.
--Nolasco is 0-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost its last six games, allowing 41 runs.
--Minnesota lost 19 of its last 27 games.
--Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over the total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen is 13-3 in his team starts against the money line (81.2%) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs per game on the season this season. The southpaw has also notched a remarkable 15-4 ledger on the year against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse, along with 9-1 mark versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.
Chen has won four straight decisions and enters tied for fourth in the American League in wins. He continued his winning streak by allowing two runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings against Toronto last Monday, improving to 8-1 at home since a season-opening loss at Camden Yards. Chen gave up four runs and nine hits in five innings in his only meeting with the Yankees this year and owns a 5.76 ERA in eight career encounters.
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