winning strak confirmed
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Jun 27 2008 8:10PM
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -121 5Dimes
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over MILWAUKEE
At first the question here was whether or not Seth McClung’s recent 3-1/2.55 run was one of an imposter. This is the same McClung, after all, that will have his 7-11/6.59 of 2005 and 6-12/6.29 of 2006 with Tampa Bay etched forever into editions of the Baseball Encyclopedia. But now we find that we do not have to make a dramatic judgment ourselves - the marketplace has done that for us, and it is to such an extreme that we can politely disagree, while getting excellent value to do so.
How does the above translate into actual baseball logic? A Minnesota team playing the best baseball of anyone in the game right now, is being favored by less than the Metrodome home field advantage in this setting. The market statement is that the Brewers with McClung and an erratic bullpen are a better overall package than the Twins, with a rejuvenated Nick Blackburn on the hill, and one of the best bullpens in the game behind him. That easily gets us in play.
Yes, McClung’s recent run has been solid, including a home win over Minnesota two starts back. But that means that it is a quick second look for a lineup that can now read his offerings much better, and the timing is ideal - control has been the downfall for McClung in his career, and after five walks in his last outing vs. Baltimore, we can believe that issue will be returning to the table again. And now his challenge vs. the Twins also ramps up - the first meeting came on a Sunday afternoon, after Minny had swept the first two games of the series at Miller Park. In a day game following a night game, and with no DH, Joe Mauer did not play against McClung, only coming in later to pinch hit.
While McClung is capable of quickly crashing back to earth, Blackburn is showing that his 6-4/3.68 is for real, particularly the 2.20 from this mound. After getting roughed up against the White Sox on a windy day in Chicago three starts back, his only genuinely bad outing all season, he rebounded to beat Cleveland on the road in this next start, and then worked a sparkler in that 6-1 win over Arizona that brought us back a 4* ticket - he allowed only three hits over seven innings, and did not walk a batter. Those two starts are what lead us to say that his numbers are “for real” - after the worst outing of the season he showed no lapse in confidence at all, walking only one of the 46 batters he faced in the two ensuing wins. And with that deep and talented bullpen behind him, we are guaranteed a quality arm on the mound for every inning of this one, making this price far too low for the current circumstances - a Milwaukee team that has not played a winning opponent on the road since May 17-18, an ugly 0-3 sweep against the Red Sox in Fenway, is over-valued here.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -115
8.5
-121 -115
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox Jun 27 2008 4:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CUBS/WHITE SOX Over
We have cashed two 6* tickets playing the White Sox under in the last three days, and the opening premise was a simple one - they will have drastic offensive swings, literally, based on the conditions at hand, and the oddsmakers are going to have a difficult time dealing with it. Today’s line is an outstanding example. In those last two 6* plays we were dealing with fresh bullpens, and neither a ballpark nor starting pitchers that were conducive to home runs being hit. Yet the opener was ‘8’ in Los Angeles in the Buerhle/Lowe matchup on Tuesday, before falling to ‘7.5’, and there were ‘8’s’ to first pitch in Danks/Kershaw yesterday. Now we have a huge shift in ballparks; a much tougher offensive opponent; a warm day with the a cross wind that does not hurt our purposes (right to left early, then out to left later in the day); and instead of facing strangers the offenses are each up against a starter that they just saw less than a week ago. And what is the line? 8.5. Once again the market is behind the curve, and we will take full advantage.
With the White Sox it is all about home runs. they are #3 in the Major League’s at producing them, but the overwhelming majority have come here on the South Side. But look how much trouble the marketplace is having distinguishing between the overall offensive punch, and the specifics - 11 of the last 13 White Sox road games have played Under the Total, and 25 of 33. But in the month of June, when the temperatures began to climb, the games here have gone Over at a 9-3-1 clip, and it is easy to see why - in six of those games the Chicago offense topped the total by themselves. We believe that the conditions are ripe for more of the same today.
Jose Contreras took his hot streak about as far as he can at his age, but the wheels have since come off. Over his last three starts it has been a horrendous 0-3/10.12, including a dismal drubbing at Wrigley last weekend when he was raked for nine runs on 10 hits over 3.1 innings, with three of them crossing over those ivy walls. Having allowed 30 hits over 16 innings of those last three starts there is little reason to fear an immediate turnaround, especially against an offense that just saw him, and is well aware of what is in his arsenal.
Meanwhile Ryan Dempster earns legit market respect here off of his 9-2/2.63, and he dominated the White Sox in that 7-1 rout on Sunday night. But there are a couple of keys here. First, every bit of Dempster’s solid showing is in this line, and perhaps more than should be. Yes, he has been good. No, we do not expect him to maintain it. Here are a couple of those keys - of the 127 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #118. In other words, he has been piling up the stats vs. very weak competition. And on that same list, he is #124 in BABIP (“Batting Average on Balls in Play”). In other words, he has also been very lucky. And in terms of that earlier domination of the Cubs, that came with the DH in effect, and Jim Thome sidelined for most of the game. But the ChiSox still had 10 hits, the high allowed by Dempster this season, including a double by Thome when he was finally able to step in as a pinch hitter.
Now the Sox get Thome in from the start, and also a quick second look. What is that worth? In first meetings against opponents this season, it is a 2.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for Dempster. In the four second meetings those numbers go to 3.63 and 1.34, and note that the ERA is saved by five unearned runs over the 22.1 innings. No team has had an immediate back-to-back against him, and now that White Sox get that opportunity. And with Dempster having allowed a home run in each of his last five road starts, he is much more vulnerable here than those All-Star worthy base numbers show.
The bullpens for both teams do not bring the usual edges either, with the opposing hitters getting plenty of looks last week. Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks have been outstanding for the White Sox, but each worked yesterday, and now face the tough adjustment of the long plane ride home that segues into this early start. Meanwhile the Cubs had to go deeply into their pen yesterday; do not have Carlos Marmol on the best of form; will not have Scott Eyre at all, a needed lefty option vs. this lineup; and have only been able to get 13 pitches from Kerry Wood since Saturday. The door is open for plenty of runs here, yet we only need to find four from each team and it is mission accomplished.
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Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox OFF
OFF
9
-117 -120
9
-120 -115
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics Jun 27 2008 10:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 8 betED
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 5* SAN FRANCISCO/OAKLAND Over
One of the advantages that even mediocre pitchers get in Inter-League play is that they get a chance to work to batters that have little experience against them, and sometimes the weaker a pitcher is, the more likely he is to pitch above his level - hitters often have a difficult time sitting back and taking pitches that look very hittable. That advantage does not exist here, with the A’s already seeing Kevin Correia, and the Giants facing Dana Eveland, in that series across the Bay two weeks ago. And that makes this Total far too low for a pair of suspect arms.
Correia checks in at 1-5/5.20 for the season, and the idea of making him a starter appears to be a failure. It is partially a case of lacking stamina, but even more-so the fact that there simply is not enough stuff to fool batters on the second or third pass through the lineup in a given game. That was the case against Oakland in the first meeting, when he opened the game well, but by the time the counting was done it was five earned runs over 5.1 innings. And with twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2) in the follow-up from that one at Kansas City, there just it not much to fear.
Meanwhile we have written often about Eveland in recent weeks, including cashing both a 5* Over and a 5* Side ticket with Florida in the last game against him. And while it took some late-inning success against the bullpen to break that one open, note how much he struggled through the his part of the game - 12 of the 29 batters that he faced reached base, and he labored to the tune of 103 pitches for 6.1 innings. But he was fortunate to strand 10 of those 12 runners, which keeps his ERA in a solid range, and also creates this value for us. It was similar to his win at San Francisco two starts back, when nine Giants reached base, and only one scored. And three starts back against the Yankees it was 11 of 26 reaching, with only three scoring. The bottom line? The pitching forms may show a guy with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, but that came because of baseball roulette, and not strong pitching - stranding 28 of 33 runners in 19 innings is something that does not continue. Now the Giants get a second quick look at a guy with major control issues (18 walks over 23.1 innings of his last four outings), and this time can take full advantage, especially with a bit of a revenge spark from being swept in that earlier series adding some spice.
