Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (off 2-0 Thursday sweep!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's "TKO" 20* Friday Night IL BAILOUT BLOWOUT! (TKOs = 2-0!)
I'm laying the price with the Angels on Friday. Joe Saunders is having a great year for Los Angeles. He's been almost un-hittable on the road, posting a 1.89 ERA this season with a sparkling WHIP of 1.09. That's in the American League, where a designated hitter bats. Amazing numbers. Note that he already shut down the Dodgers once this year at home, throwing seven strong innings in a game where the Dodgers got to use a DH. He'll be facing the LA Dodgers tonight at Chavez Ravine, and the pitchers will be batting. Chan Ho Park gets the start for the home team. He's not even a major league caliber starter at this point�just a desperation fill-in. The Halos are 16-7 their last 23 games, and have been dominant so far against the National League. The slumping Dodgers are 11-22 their last 33 games, and just dropped two of three on this field to the White Sox. We're getting a World Championship contender from the superior American League at a cheap price against a slumping opponent representing the woeful NL West. Oh, the Halos are 12-3 in the 15 games Saunders has started this year! The Angels minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* IL BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! (2nd TY, won 1st)
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday. Nick Blackburn has been very tough for opponents to hit this season, particularly at home. The Minnesota hurler has a 2.20 ERA in the Metrodome, with a solid 1.24 WHIP. Against teams getting their first look at him in 2008, his ERA is a very strong 2.96 wherever the games have been played. He may have trouble in the second half of the season once division rivals get their timing down. Right now, the first look teams are struggling badly. Milwaukee didn't see Blackburn when these teams met last week. And Minnesota took two out of three on the road anyway. You may not be aware that red-hot Minnesota has won 11 of its last 12 games, and is 9-2 its last 11 home games. The wagering markets have been very slow to react to the Twins' hot run the past few weeks, and to Blackburn's level of effectiveness all season. We've got the hottest team in baseball, at a short price, throwing a pitcher who's very difficult to hit in a first look. And, we've also got an American League team hosting a National League team in a season where the AL is just dominating Interleague action. The Twins minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
BIG AL's #1 BASEBALL SIDE WINNER; 5-1 RUN LAST 6
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Toronto comes into this game against Atlanta off of their third win in their last four games, but more importantly, that win came against the hottest starter in the Major Leagues in Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez. The Jays not only beat Volquez and the Reds, they trounced them by six runs (7-1). Jays outfielder Vernon Wells missed an entire month with an injury, and although Toronto did not seem to benefit much at first from his return in the second week of June, Wells seems to have really found his stride now and has sparked a recent surge in offense for this team that has now scored a total of 34 runs in their last four games and outscored their opponents by 21 runs during this time. At 11-27, the Braves continue to be one of the worst teams in the Majors on the road and things haven't been so great at home either, as Atlanta is coming into this road series off of a six-game homestand in which they only managed to go 3-3 against the likes of Milwaukee and Seattle. Toronto's righthander Dustin McGowan has decent overall numbers at 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA, but he has been lights out in front of the home crowd at 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA when starting at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's FRIDAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER; 5-1 LAST 6
At 8:10pm our selection is Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. Two teams with almost identical records begin a three game interleague series with two starters who are also very similar. Milwaukee's Seth McClung and Minnesota's Nick Blackburn are both righthanders in their mid-20s with winning records and ERAs right around 3.8 runs per game. McClung in particular has been incredibly effective lately for the Brewers. In his last start on June 21, McClung was practically unhittable for six innings against the Orioles before folding a bit and that is to be expected from a converted reliever who's had only six starts in his last two Major League seasons. McClung has been particularly stingy this season, only giving up 43 hits in almost 55 innings so far, and if the Brewers keep his innings down he should continue to be very productive for them. Blackburn has been more generous in the hits department, but he has only surrendered 15 walks in 93 innings and if you ignore his poor performance on June 6th against the Rangers in which he gave up seven earned runs, Blackburn has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his other six starts between May 16 and now. Six of Milwaukee's last eight road games have gone under the total. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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