Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- Phillies-Nationals OVER
10 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS
PHILLY/WASHINGTON OVER --- To be honest, I was completely surprised to see this total as low as it is tonight. I truly believed it would come out around 10.5, but to see it at 9.5 is an absolute steal and I’m jumping all over it.
These two teams have already faced each other five times this season and the combined run total for both teams is 64 runs, or, over 10 per game. The Nats have already had 16 of their games finish OVER the total while the Phillies have pushed past the number 17 times in 30 games. What’s even more encouraging is what the Nationals have been doing lately. Listen to these recent final scores... 6-3, 9-7, 11-7, 10-8, 5-4, 2-1, 11-9… the list goes on and on. Something I noticed about this Nationals team early on was the fact they have a really good hitting lineup, but they just don’t have a lick of pitching. Shoot, their best pitcher might be a young prospect named Jordan Zimmerman who hasn’t really hit his stride yet.
Tonight’s pitcher, John Lannan, has already seen the Phillies once this year, allowing 9 hits and 3 ER in 5 innings of work, as the Phillies would eventually score 7 runs. What excites me most about this OVER play with Lannan on the hill is his WHIP (1.50). Every inning he pitches, you can just about guarantee at least one baserunner, and if you do that long enough to the Phillies lineup, they’re going to make you pay.
On the other side we have Joe Blanton and his inflated 6.82 WHIP and 1.60 WHIP. Blanton has seen the Nats twice already this season, and one of those games resulted in a 13-11 Phillies win. Blanton’s ERA vs. Washington in 2009 is 9.00 and his opponent’s batting average against is over .300. Bottom line: Joe Blanton isn’t very good right now and probably should account for at least 4 ER tonight.
Both of these teams have very potent offenses and there’s no reason to think this game stays under 10 runs. Play the OVER as your top play of the day.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS --- I’m not sure if you were with me on Sunday when I gave you my highest rated MLB play of the season, but it was on Toronto, and Brett Cecil was on the hill. Until he gets going a little bit more, we’re going to get GREAT prices when we back this guy. Oh sure, eventually he’ll be giving -150 and -160 when he pitches at home, but tonight the money line is basically even. That, my friend, is a steal.
Cecil has pitched just twice this year, and his team has won both games despite the fact that he’s only 1-0 himself. In his two starts, Cecil has been brilliant, going 14 total innings, allowing just one ER, 11 hits and two walks for a WHIP under 1.00. Not bad for a rookie, eh? And If his 0.64 ERA isn’t enough for you, what about the fact that he’s struck out six batters in each game and his pitch count per inning dropped from 16 to 13 from game 1 to game 2? So far so good for this 23-year-old.
Cecil will face John Danks tonight, and although he’s been very good so far this year, he hasn’t been as good as Cecil and is more than capable of imploding. Danks hasn’t seen the Blue Jays yet this season (but Toronto did still win two of three earlier this year), but in one appearance vs. the Blue Jays in 2008, Danks suffered a 5-2 loss. In 2007, Danks faced the Blue Jays just once (again) and was on the short end of a 4-3 score.
Toronto is the hottest hitting team in Major League Baseball and is thankful to see the Yankees leave the building. They welcome fresh blood this evening and I see no chance for the White Sox to pull off the win.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS