Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-125) over Chicago Cubs
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-110) over Oakland
Runline System Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-175) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, +115) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-175) over Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-1.5, +120) over Seattle
Underdog System Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+120) over Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+180) over L.A. Dodgers
2-Unit Play. Take Boston (+100) over Tampa Bay
Today's Total
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Tampa Bay at Boston
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-125) over Chicago Cubs
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-110) over Oakland
Runline System Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-175) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, +115) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-175) over Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-1.5, +120) over Seattle
Underdog System Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+120) over Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+180) over L.A. Dodgers
2-Unit Play. Take Boston (+100) over Tampa Bay
Today's Total
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Tampa Bay at Boston
DCI
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3, best-of-7
ORLANDO 98, Boston 94
Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3, best-of-7
HOUSTON 100, L.A. Lakers 99
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7
Boston vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PITTSBURGH 4, Washington 3
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Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3, best-of-7
ORLANDO 98, Boston 94
Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3, best-of-7
HOUSTON 100, L.A. Lakers 99
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7
Boston vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PITTSBURGH 4, Washington 3
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
After stealing the home-court advantage in Boston, the Magic return home to Amway Arena tonight looking to go up 2-1 on the Celtics when this best-of 7 Eastern Conference semifinal series resumes.
Orlando got Game 1 in Boston on Monday 95-90 as a 1½-point underdog, then got crushed in Game 2 on Wednesday, falling 112-94 as a four-point pup. In the Game 2 rout, the Celtics got 31 points from reserve Eddie House who shot 11-for-14 from the field, including 4-for-4 from behind the three-point line. Boston shot 51.2 percent from the floor and also got 22 points from Ray Allen, winning easily despite superstar Paul Pierce managing just three points on 1 of 4 shooting.
Despite Wednesday’s setback, the Magic have won four of their last five (3-2 ATS) and six of their last nine (4-5 ATS) overall. They won two of their first three home playoff games in the opening round against the 76ers, including a big Game 5 win 91-78 as 8½-point favorites in their most recent home contest. On the opposite side, Boston has alternated wins and losses in its last seven outings (4-2-1 ATS), but it did manage to steal Game 3 in its opening-round series against the Bulls in Chicago, winning 107-86 as a 3½-point ‘dog.
Orlando has still won three of the last four (2-2 ATS) against the Celtics this season, but failed to cover both regular season meetings in Florida, losing 90-80 on Jan. 22 as a 4½-point home chalk followed by an 84-82 victory as a 3½-point favorite on March 25. The host has won nine of the last 12 in this series and covered the number in 22 of the last 32, even though the road team is currently on a 4-1 ATS run. Finally, Boston has gotten the cash in seven of the last 11 overall.
The Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference semifinal games and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 13 after a spread-cover, but they are on positive streaks of 44-17-1 ATS as road ‘dogs, 7-1-1 on the road, 4-0 on Fridays and 7-0-1 as a playoff pup. Orlando is on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 3-11 against the Atlantic Division, 1-4 as a favorite and 5-15 as a home chalk of up to 4 1/2-points, but the Magic are 48-20-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
Wednesday’s game soared over the posted total, but the under is 4-1 in the last five series clashes and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Florida.
Boston has stayed under the total in 15 of 22 as a road ‘dog and four of five against teams with winning records, but it is on “over” streaks of 13-3 overall, 37-18 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 6-1 after getting one day off. Orlando is on a plethora of “under” streaks that include 11-4 overall, 24-9 as a home favorite, 5-1 at home, 3-0 as a chalk, 11-4 against the Atlantic Division, 6-2 after getting a day off and 4-0 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at (5) Houston (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
After knotting up their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series in a physical Game 2, the Lakers travel to the Toyota Center in Houston for Game 3 against the Rockets.
Los Angeles dominated the second half of Game 2 on Wednesday and pulled away for a 111-98 victory, covering as a 10-point favorite. Only three Lakers reached double-digits in scoring and one of those was Derek Fisher, who was ejected from the game for a flagrant foul on the Rockets Luis Scola, with Fisher subsequently being suspended for this contest. Kobe Bryant scored 40 points and Pau Gasol added 22 for Los Angeles, who shot 50 percent from the floor as a team. Houston’s Ron Artest scored 25 points before being tossed in the fourth quarter after getting two technical fouls when he got tangled up with Bryant on a rebound.
Houston has won 10 of its last 14 overall (8-6 ATS) while the Lakers have won 12 of their last 15 (8-7 ATS).
The Rockets are 36-8 at home this season and won all three first-round playoff home games over Portland (1-2 ATS) at the Toyota Center, including a series-clinching 92-76 rout on April 30 as a five-point favorite. Los Angeles is 30-13 on the road (24-19 ATS) and took Game 4 in Utah in its opening-round series, winning 108-94 as a five-point chalk.
The Lakers have won five of six against Houston this season and they are 2-0 SU and ATS in Houston, winning 102-96 on March 11 as 3½-point pups and winning 105-100 on Jan. 13 as four-point favorites. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Rockets and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 visits to Houston.
Phil Jackson’s squad is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 3-8 as a playoff favorite, 1-5 on the road against teams with winning home records and 0-4 following a straight-up win, but it is 8-3-1 ATS in conference semifinal action and 5-2 against the Southwest Division. Rick Adelman’s Rockets are on ATS slumps of 4-10 against Pacific Division teams, 7-16 as a home ‘dog, 3-9 on Fridays and 1-4 after playing after one day off, but they are on positive ATS runs of 39-19-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 at home and 14-6 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points.
Wednesday’s Game 2 went well over the total after Game 1 barely stayed below the posted number. The under is 3-1 in the last four clashes.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of six after a spread-cover and four of their last five conference semifinal games, but they are on “under” runs of 8-2 on the road, 20-8 as a favorite, 4-1 on Fridays, 4-1 overall and 14-6 after getting a days off. It’s all “unders” for the Rockets, including 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 9-3 on Fridays, 10-4 following a straight-up loss, 5-1 against Western Conference teams, 7-2 as a home ‘dog and 6-0 at home against teams with winning road marks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago (16-12) at Milwaukee (16-13)
The Cubs make their second trek of the season to nearby Milwaukee as they open a weekend series against the Brewers, with rookie Randy Wells scheduled to make his big-league debut against Milwaukee’s Dave Bush (1-0, 4.36 ERA).
Chicago is coming off a two-game sweep of the Astros in Houston, winning 6-3 on Wednesday and 8-5 on Thursday. The Cubs have won six of their last seven games, a run that comes on the heels of a 2-7 slump. However, they’re 2-5 in their last seven Friday contests and they’ve lost five straight games as an underdog.
Milwaukee lost 6-5 at Cincinnati on Wednesday, ending a four-game winning streak. Still, the Brewers have won eight of their last 11 and 12 of their last 16 overall. Additionally, they’re on runs of 6-2 at home, 6-1 against N.L. Central rivals, 7-2 as a favorite and 9-4 against right-handed starters.
Chicago took two of three in Milwaukee a month ago, and the Cubs have won nine of the last 13 meetings overall and eight of the last 11 at Miller Park.
Wells was 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in five games (26 innings) at Triple-A Iowa, with the right-hander walking seven and striking out 21.
Bush has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his first five starts this season and 10 of his last 11 going back to 2008. On Sunday, he yielded three runs in seven innings against Arizona, getting a no-decision in the Brewers’ 4-3 home victory. The right-hander’s lone victory came on the road, where he’s 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in three games (two starts).
With Bush on the mound, Milwaukee is on hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 20-8 at home and 4-0 when favored. However, the Brew Crew have dropped 11 of Bush’s last 12 starts against the Cubs, including four straight at home. For his career, Bush is 1-7 with a 4.80 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) against Chicago, including a no-decision on April 11 when he gave up three runs in 6 1/3 innings with the Brewers losing 6-5.
For Chicago, the “over” is on runs of 9-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 8-3-2 against divisional rivals. The over is also 6-1 in the Brewers’ last seven against N.L. Central foes and 17-5-1 in Bush’s last 23 home starts, but the under has been the play in each of the Milwaukee’s last five home games and each of its last five Friday outings.
Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 12-4-2 overall, 14-4-2 in Milwaukee, 4-1-2 when Bush faces Chicago and 4-0-1 when Bush takes on the Cubs at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (14-16) at Boston (18-11)
The Rays and Red Sox get together for the third time this season and second straight weekend, with Tampa Bay ace James Shields (3-2, 3.51) scheduled to take the mound at Fenway Park for the second time in a month. Boston will counter with Brad Penny (2-1, 7.61).
The Rays are coming off a two-game series sweep of the Yankees in New York, including Thursday’s 8-6 victory. Tampa Bay has followed up a 4-11 slump by going 6-2 in its last eight. The Rays have also won 20 of their last 26 Friday contests and six of their last eight against the A.L. East. But otherwise Joe Maddon’s club is in funks of 6-8 on the road, 2-5 as a favorite and 0-4 as a road chalk.
Boston used a 12-run sixth-inning to obliterate the Indians 13-3 on Thursday. The Red Sox are on impressive streaks of 16-5 overall, 75-32 at Fenway Park, 10-3 against division rivals, 49-21 at home against right-handed starters, 9-2 on Friday, 19-7 in series openers and 15-2 when playing on grass.
The Red Sox beat Tampa Bay on Opening Day in Boston, but the Rays have taken five of the last six clashes, including two of three in Florida last weekend. However, Tampa Bay is still just 15-48 in its last 63 games at Fenway Park (playoffs included).
Shields has given up just six runs in his last three starts covering 21 1/3 innings (2.53 ERA), but he’s just 1-1. The victory came against the Red Sox on Sunday, when he gave up two runs in 7 1/3 innings en route to a 5-3 triumph. That made up for a poor Opening Day start at Fenway on April 7, when Shields gave up five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, losing 5-3. The right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.84 ERA in 12 career starts (regular season and playoffs) against the Red Sox, including 0-4 with a 9.56 ERA in four games at Fenway Park.
Penny went against Shields in Tampa Bay on Sunday and gave up three runs in six innings, but still took the loss, the second time in a row Boston has lost behind Penny after winning his first three starts. The burly right-hander is 1-0 in two home starts – both Red Sox victories – despite giving up 11 runs (10 earned) in nine innings (10.00 ERA). Including Sunday’s loss, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against the Rays.
With Shields on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 6-1 on Friday, 6-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0 when facing the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in four of Penny’s five starts this season.
Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in five of its last seven on the road, but Boston carries “over” trends of 7-2-1 overall, 8-2-1 versus right-handed starters, 6-2 at home and 11-3-1 against losing teams. Finally, the over/under has alternated in the seven head-to-head meetings this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
After stealing the home-court advantage in Boston, the Magic return home to Amway Arena tonight looking to go up 2-1 on the Celtics when this best-of 7 Eastern Conference semifinal series resumes.
Orlando got Game 1 in Boston on Monday 95-90 as a 1½-point underdog, then got crushed in Game 2 on Wednesday, falling 112-94 as a four-point pup. In the Game 2 rout, the Celtics got 31 points from reserve Eddie House who shot 11-for-14 from the field, including 4-for-4 from behind the three-point line. Boston shot 51.2 percent from the floor and also got 22 points from Ray Allen, winning easily despite superstar Paul Pierce managing just three points on 1 of 4 shooting.
Despite Wednesday’s setback, the Magic have won four of their last five (3-2 ATS) and six of their last nine (4-5 ATS) overall. They won two of their first three home playoff games in the opening round against the 76ers, including a big Game 5 win 91-78 as 8½-point favorites in their most recent home contest. On the opposite side, Boston has alternated wins and losses in its last seven outings (4-2-1 ATS), but it did manage to steal Game 3 in its opening-round series against the Bulls in Chicago, winning 107-86 as a 3½-point ‘dog.
Orlando has still won three of the last four (2-2 ATS) against the Celtics this season, but failed to cover both regular season meetings in Florida, losing 90-80 on Jan. 22 as a 4½-point home chalk followed by an 84-82 victory as a 3½-point favorite on March 25. The host has won nine of the last 12 in this series and covered the number in 22 of the last 32, even though the road team is currently on a 4-1 ATS run. Finally, Boston has gotten the cash in seven of the last 11 overall.
The Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference semifinal games and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 13 after a spread-cover, but they are on positive streaks of 44-17-1 ATS as road ‘dogs, 7-1-1 on the road, 4-0 on Fridays and 7-0-1 as a playoff pup. Orlando is on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 3-11 against the Atlantic Division, 1-4 as a favorite and 5-15 as a home chalk of up to 4 1/2-points, but the Magic are 48-20-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
Wednesday’s game soared over the posted total, but the under is 4-1 in the last five series clashes and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Florida.
Boston has stayed under the total in 15 of 22 as a road ‘dog and four of five against teams with winning records, but it is on “over” streaks of 13-3 overall, 37-18 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 6-1 after getting one day off. Orlando is on a plethora of “under” streaks that include 11-4 overall, 24-9 as a home favorite, 5-1 at home, 3-0 as a chalk, 11-4 against the Atlantic Division, 6-2 after getting a day off and 4-0 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at (5) Houston (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
After knotting up their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series in a physical Game 2, the Lakers travel to the Toyota Center in Houston for Game 3 against the Rockets.
Los Angeles dominated the second half of Game 2 on Wednesday and pulled away for a 111-98 victory, covering as a 10-point favorite. Only three Lakers reached double-digits in scoring and one of those was Derek Fisher, who was ejected from the game for a flagrant foul on the Rockets Luis Scola, with Fisher subsequently being suspended for this contest. Kobe Bryant scored 40 points and Pau Gasol added 22 for Los Angeles, who shot 50 percent from the floor as a team. Houston’s Ron Artest scored 25 points before being tossed in the fourth quarter after getting two technical fouls when he got tangled up with Bryant on a rebound.
Houston has won 10 of its last 14 overall (8-6 ATS) while the Lakers have won 12 of their last 15 (8-7 ATS).
The Rockets are 36-8 at home this season and won all three first-round playoff home games over Portland (1-2 ATS) at the Toyota Center, including a series-clinching 92-76 rout on April 30 as a five-point favorite. Los Angeles is 30-13 on the road (24-19 ATS) and took Game 4 in Utah in its opening-round series, winning 108-94 as a five-point chalk.
The Lakers have won five of six against Houston this season and they are 2-0 SU and ATS in Houston, winning 102-96 on March 11 as 3½-point pups and winning 105-100 on Jan. 13 as four-point favorites. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Rockets and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 visits to Houston.
Phil Jackson’s squad is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 3-8 as a playoff favorite, 1-5 on the road against teams with winning home records and 0-4 following a straight-up win, but it is 8-3-1 ATS in conference semifinal action and 5-2 against the Southwest Division. Rick Adelman’s Rockets are on ATS slumps of 4-10 against Pacific Division teams, 7-16 as a home ‘dog, 3-9 on Fridays and 1-4 after playing after one day off, but they are on positive ATS runs of 39-19-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 at home and 14-6 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points.
Wednesday’s Game 2 went well over the total after Game 1 barely stayed below the posted number. The under is 3-1 in the last four clashes.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of six after a spread-cover and four of their last five conference semifinal games, but they are on “under” runs of 8-2 on the road, 20-8 as a favorite, 4-1 on Fridays, 4-1 overall and 14-6 after getting a days off. It’s all “unders” for the Rockets, including 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 9-3 on Fridays, 10-4 following a straight-up loss, 5-1 against Western Conference teams, 7-2 as a home ‘dog and 6-0 at home against teams with winning road marks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago (16-12) at Milwaukee (16-13)
The Cubs make their second trek of the season to nearby Milwaukee as they open a weekend series against the Brewers, with rookie Randy Wells scheduled to make his big-league debut against Milwaukee’s Dave Bush (1-0, 4.36 ERA).
Chicago is coming off a two-game sweep of the Astros in Houston, winning 6-3 on Wednesday and 8-5 on Thursday. The Cubs have won six of their last seven games, a run that comes on the heels of a 2-7 slump. However, they’re 2-5 in their last seven Friday contests and they’ve lost five straight games as an underdog.
Milwaukee lost 6-5 at Cincinnati on Wednesday, ending a four-game winning streak. Still, the Brewers have won eight of their last 11 and 12 of their last 16 overall. Additionally, they’re on runs of 6-2 at home, 6-1 against N.L. Central rivals, 7-2 as a favorite and 9-4 against right-handed starters.
Chicago took two of three in Milwaukee a month ago, and the Cubs have won nine of the last 13 meetings overall and eight of the last 11 at Miller Park.
Wells was 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in five games (26 innings) at Triple-A Iowa, with the right-hander walking seven and striking out 21.
Bush has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his first five starts this season and 10 of his last 11 going back to 2008. On Sunday, he yielded three runs in seven innings against Arizona, getting a no-decision in the Brewers’ 4-3 home victory. The right-hander’s lone victory came on the road, where he’s 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in three games (two starts).
With Bush on the mound, Milwaukee is on hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 20-8 at home and 4-0 when favored. However, the Brew Crew have dropped 11 of Bush’s last 12 starts against the Cubs, including four straight at home. For his career, Bush is 1-7 with a 4.80 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) against Chicago, including a no-decision on April 11 when he gave up three runs in 6 1/3 innings with the Brewers losing 6-5.
For Chicago, the “over” is on runs of 9-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 8-3-2 against divisional rivals. The over is also 6-1 in the Brewers’ last seven against N.L. Central foes and 17-5-1 in Bush’s last 23 home starts, but the under has been the play in each of the Milwaukee’s last five home games and each of its last five Friday outings.
Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 12-4-2 overall, 14-4-2 in Milwaukee, 4-1-2 when Bush faces Chicago and 4-0-1 when Bush takes on the Cubs at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (14-16) at Boston (18-11)
The Rays and Red Sox get together for the third time this season and second straight weekend, with Tampa Bay ace James Shields (3-2, 3.51) scheduled to take the mound at Fenway Park for the second time in a month. Boston will counter with Brad Penny (2-1, 7.61).
The Rays are coming off a two-game series sweep of the Yankees in New York, including Thursday’s 8-6 victory. Tampa Bay has followed up a 4-11 slump by going 6-2 in its last eight. The Rays have also won 20 of their last 26 Friday contests and six of their last eight against the A.L. East. But otherwise Joe Maddon’s club is in funks of 6-8 on the road, 2-5 as a favorite and 0-4 as a road chalk.
Boston used a 12-run sixth-inning to obliterate the Indians 13-3 on Thursday. The Red Sox are on impressive streaks of 16-5 overall, 75-32 at Fenway Park, 10-3 against division rivals, 49-21 at home against right-handed starters, 9-2 on Friday, 19-7 in series openers and 15-2 when playing on grass.
The Red Sox beat Tampa Bay on Opening Day in Boston, but the Rays have taken five of the last six clashes, including two of three in Florida last weekend. However, Tampa Bay is still just 15-48 in its last 63 games at Fenway Park (playoffs included).
Shields has given up just six runs in his last three starts covering 21 1/3 innings (2.53 ERA), but he’s just 1-1. The victory came against the Red Sox on Sunday, when he gave up two runs in 7 1/3 innings en route to a 5-3 triumph. That made up for a poor Opening Day start at Fenway on April 7, when Shields gave up five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, losing 5-3. The right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.84 ERA in 12 career starts (regular season and playoffs) against the Red Sox, including 0-4 with a 9.56 ERA in four games at Fenway Park.
Penny went against Shields in Tampa Bay on Sunday and gave up three runs in six innings, but still took the loss, the second time in a row Boston has lost behind Penny after winning his first three starts. The burly right-hander is 1-0 in two home starts – both Red Sox victories – despite giving up 11 runs (10 earned) in nine innings (10.00 ERA). Including Sunday’s loss, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against the Rays.
With Shields on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 6-1 on Friday, 6-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0 when facing the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in four of Penny’s five starts this season.
Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in five of its last seven on the road, but Boston carries “over” trends of 7-2-1 overall, 8-2-1 versus right-handed starters, 6-2 at home and 11-3-1 against losing teams. Finally, the over/under has alternated in the seven head-to-head meetings this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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WUNDERDOG
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 runs -110 (runline)
I like the value on Baltimore here on the runline. CC Sabathia was supposed to be the savior of the pitching staff, but he has looked pretty ordinary. He hasn't won a start since April 11, as he has struggled all season. To make matters worse, he must now throw to a minor league catcher that has never caught him before as Jose Molina pulled a quad muscle last night. That also means the Birds are going to be aggressive on the base paths, and steal some bases. They have their best chance in this series with Guthrie on the mound as he is the only bona fide starter on the O's staff that gives them a chance to win each time out, so I will back them on the runline at home.
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 runs -110 (runline)
I like the value on Baltimore here on the runline. CC Sabathia was supposed to be the savior of the pitching staff, but he has looked pretty ordinary. He hasn't won a start since April 11, as he has struggled all season. To make matters worse, he must now throw to a minor league catcher that has never caught him before as Jose Molina pulled a quad muscle last night. That also means the Birds are going to be aggressive on the base paths, and steal some bases. They have their best chance in this series with Guthrie on the mound as he is the only bona fide starter on the O's staff that gives them a chance to win each time out, so I will back them on the runline at home.
WUNDERDOG
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)
The news for the Yankees just keeps getting worse. Last night Jose Molina pulled a quad muscle, and that leaves the Yankees with no experienced big league catcher, with Jorge Posada already on the shelf. They have lost their top two bullpen pieces in Bruny and Marte, who are both on the DL. Xavier Nady, the projected everyday right fielder, is gone for the year. Then the unthinkable happened last night as Mariano Rivera gives up back-to-back HRs in the ninth. That makes four he has given up already, matching his total from all of last year! CC Sabathia was supposed to be the savior of the pitching staff, but he hasn't looked big-time. He hasn't won a start since April 11, and the Yankees are now on a six- game losing streak. Jeremy Guthrie is the only bona fide starter on the O's staff that gives them a chance to win each time out. Over his career, he has a winning record vs. the Yankees. Too many things going wrong for the Yanks right now, with the value Baltimore here and I'll go with the Birds in this one.
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +1.5 runs -110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
I wrote significantly about what I liked about the Baltimore value here, but that confidence increases on the runline. CC Sabathia has struggled all season, and now he must throw to a minor league catcher that has never caught him before. That also means the Birds are going to be aggressive on the bases, and steal some bases. They have their best chance in this series with Guthrie on the mound, and I will also play them on the runline.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.1)
The Milwaukee Brewers were expected to take a step back without Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia in the rotation, but here they are with the same number of wins as the Cubs through the first month. The Cubs will recall Randy Wells from AAA Iowa to get the start here, and he has a total of five big league innings under his belt. So being his first big league start, and on the road, expect the nerves to be running high. Dave Bush gets the ball for the Brewers and after a lousy start to the season he has pitched well over his last three games. The Brewers have been getting better pitching than the Cubs on the season, and with a rookie going on the road, I have to go with the Brewers in this one.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +160 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.2)
I shared my thoughts on the moneyline in this one, but I'm also turning to a runline opportunity here. Dave Bush has had somewhat of a pedestrian career, but he has been much above that while pitching at home. Bush has led the Brewers to a 23-10 mark over his last 33 home starts. He goes against a rookie today making his major league debut on the road as a starter, and I like the big advantage for the Brewers here. I'll also take them on the runline.
Game: Florida at Colorado (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 11 -130 (risk 2 to win 1.5)
It has been a rough start for Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, as he has yet to produce a quality start in six appearances on the season. His saving grace here is that he is facing a team he has done as well against as any other over his career. Nolasco has a career 2.04 ERA against the Rockies, and if he is going to produce a good start this will be where he gets it. Jason Hammel has pitched much better, and his last start was a gem over the Giants where he shut them out over six innings, lowering his ERA to 3.45 in the process. This is a favorable pitching matchup for both pitchers, and I like this one to finish UNDER the total.
Game: Washington at Arizona (9:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
This one is hard to figure from the total standpoint. The Diamondbacks are averaging a major league low in runs scored at 3.6 a game, but at the same time are big-time on defense, ranked No. 8 in runs allowed per game. This doesn't look to me like the spot for a National League total to be in double-digits. The Nats are far from a consistent run-producing team, and they have played UNDER in six of their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The D-backs have played 8-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 after a loss. These teams have also played four of their last five to the UNDER, and when playing in Arizona they have played to a mark of 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15. I will go with the UNDER in this one.
Game: Toronto at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +100 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)
The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a big start, and are the first team in baseball to reach 20 wins. Are they the Tampa Bay of this year? I don't think so. They lost 200+ innings from AJ Burnett, and over the course of the season that will show. They were also one of the worst teams in baseball against left-hand pitching last year and finished dead last in the American League at 3.8 runs per game. Scott Richmond has given the Jays’ staff a lift as he has pitched very well so far, but still only has 10 big league starts under his belt. Josh Outman has been quite pedestrian for the A's, but he'll get a chance to face a lineup that struggled over the long haul last year against southpaws, so I'm goin’ with the A's in this one.
PICKS CONFIRMED GL
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)
The news for the Yankees just keeps getting worse. Last night Jose Molina pulled a quad muscle, and that leaves the Yankees with no experienced big league catcher, with Jorge Posada already on the shelf. They have lost their top two bullpen pieces in Bruny and Marte, who are both on the DL. Xavier Nady, the projected everyday right fielder, is gone for the year. Then the unthinkable happened last night as Mariano Rivera gives up back-to-back HRs in the ninth. That makes four he has given up already, matching his total from all of last year! CC Sabathia was supposed to be the savior of the pitching staff, but he hasn't looked big-time. He hasn't won a start since April 11, and the Yankees are now on a six- game losing streak. Jeremy Guthrie is the only bona fide starter on the O's staff that gives them a chance to win each time out. Over his career, he has a winning record vs. the Yankees. Too many things going wrong for the Yanks right now, with the value Baltimore here and I'll go with the Birds in this one.
Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +1.5 runs -110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
I wrote significantly about what I liked about the Baltimore value here, but that confidence increases on the runline. CC Sabathia has struggled all season, and now he must throw to a minor league catcher that has never caught him before. That also means the Birds are going to be aggressive on the bases, and steal some bases. They have their best chance in this series with Guthrie on the mound, and I will also play them on the runline.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.1)
The Milwaukee Brewers were expected to take a step back without Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia in the rotation, but here they are with the same number of wins as the Cubs through the first month. The Cubs will recall Randy Wells from AAA Iowa to get the start here, and he has a total of five big league innings under his belt. So being his first big league start, and on the road, expect the nerves to be running high. Dave Bush gets the ball for the Brewers and after a lousy start to the season he has pitched well over his last three games. The Brewers have been getting better pitching than the Cubs on the season, and with a rookie going on the road, I have to go with the Brewers in this one.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +160 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.2)
I shared my thoughts on the moneyline in this one, but I'm also turning to a runline opportunity here. Dave Bush has had somewhat of a pedestrian career, but he has been much above that while pitching at home. Bush has led the Brewers to a 23-10 mark over his last 33 home starts. He goes against a rookie today making his major league debut on the road as a starter, and I like the big advantage for the Brewers here. I'll also take them on the runline.
Game: Florida at Colorado (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 11 -130 (risk 2 to win 1.5)
It has been a rough start for Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, as he has yet to produce a quality start in six appearances on the season. His saving grace here is that he is facing a team he has done as well against as any other over his career. Nolasco has a career 2.04 ERA against the Rockies, and if he is going to produce a good start this will be where he gets it. Jason Hammel has pitched much better, and his last start was a gem over the Giants where he shut them out over six innings, lowering his ERA to 3.45 in the process. This is a favorable pitching matchup for both pitchers, and I like this one to finish UNDER the total.
Game: Washington at Arizona (9:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
This one is hard to figure from the total standpoint. The Diamondbacks are averaging a major league low in runs scored at 3.6 a game, but at the same time are big-time on defense, ranked No. 8 in runs allowed per game. This doesn't look to me like the spot for a National League total to be in double-digits. The Nats are far from a consistent run-producing team, and they have played UNDER in six of their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The D-backs have played 8-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 after a loss. These teams have also played four of their last five to the UNDER, and when playing in Arizona they have played to a mark of 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15. I will go with the UNDER in this one.
Game: Toronto at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +100 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)
The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a big start, and are the first team in baseball to reach 20 wins. Are they the Tampa Bay of this year? I don't think so. They lost 200+ innings from AJ Burnett, and over the course of the season that will show. They were also one of the worst teams in baseball against left-hand pitching last year and finished dead last in the American League at 3.8 runs per game. Scott Richmond has given the Jays’ staff a lift as he has pitched very well so far, but still only has 10 big league starts under his belt. Josh Outman has been quite pedestrian for the A's, but he'll get a chance to face a lineup that struggled over the long haul last year against southpaws, so I'm goin’ with the A's in this one.
PICKS CONFIRMED GL
SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
MLB PAY PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) +185 (1)
Dodgers (Billingsley)
KANSAS CITY (MECHE) -120 (2)
Angels (Palmer)
TORONTO (RICHMOND) -108 (3)
Oakland (Outman)
Tampa Bay (Shields)
BOSTON (PENNY) EVEN (4)
Atlanta (Reyes)
PHILADELPHIA (HAMELS) -170 (5)
Cubs (Wells)
MILWAUKEE (BUSH) -123 (6)
Detroit (Verlander)
CLEVELAND (LEE) -128 (7)
Seattle (Jakubauskas)
MINNESOTA (BAKER) -161 (8)
Pittsburgh (Karstens)
METS (NIESE) -170 (9)
San Diego (Gaudin)
HOUSTON (RODRIGUEZ) -156 (10)
ST. LOUIS (PINEIRO) +113 (11)
Cincinnati (Cueto)
Yankees (Sabathia)
BALTIMORE (GUTHRIE) +145 (12)
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MLB PAY PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) +185 (1)
Dodgers (Billingsley)
KANSAS CITY (MECHE) -120 (2)
Angels (Palmer)
TORONTO (RICHMOND) -108 (3)
Oakland (Outman)
Tampa Bay (Shields)
BOSTON (PENNY) EVEN (4)
Atlanta (Reyes)
PHILADELPHIA (HAMELS) -170 (5)
Cubs (Wells)
MILWAUKEE (BUSH) -123 (6)
Detroit (Verlander)
CLEVELAND (LEE) -128 (7)
Seattle (Jakubauskas)
MINNESOTA (BAKER) -161 (8)
Pittsburgh (Karstens)
METS (NIESE) -170 (9)
San Diego (Gaudin)
HOUSTON (RODRIGUEZ) -156 (10)
ST. LOUIS (PINEIRO) +113 (11)
Cincinnati (Cueto)
Yankees (Sabathia)
BALTIMORE (GUTHRIE) +145 (12)
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SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
NBA PLAYOFFS CONF. SEMI'S PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Against the Spread
Boston
ORLANDO -4 (1)
LOS ANGELES -1 (2)
Houston
OVER / UNDER
Boston / Orlando OVER 189 (1)
Los Angeles / Houston UNDER 195 (2)
Money Line
Boston
ORLANDO -180 (1)
LOS ANGELES -125 (2)
Houston
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NBA PLAYOFFS CONF. SEMI'S PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Against the Spread
Boston
ORLANDO -4 (1)
LOS ANGELES -1 (2)
Houston
OVER / UNDER
Boston / Orlando OVER 189 (1)
Los Angeles / Houston UNDER 195 (2)
Money Line
Boston
ORLANDO -180 (1)
LOS ANGELES -125 (2)
Houston
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