SERVICE PLAYS Aug 14th 2007

[Murphy8276]

IC PLAY OF THE DAY: CWS vs OAKLAND


Play: OAKLAND
Comments: IC PLAY OF THE DAY: OAKLAND A'S...write up for this game is included in IC
IC MLB TOTAL: Baltimore vs New York Yankees


Play: Yankees/Orioles Over 10.5
Comments: IC MLB TOTAL: Yankees/Orioles Over 10.5. If Wang/Guthrie goes to 13 runs in Yankee stadium, then why not Cabrera/Kars - who are both worse pitchers than their counterparts. The Yanks are in the hunt and the Oriole are coming off a loss and runs can come plenty given the Yanks have had success against Cabrera throughout this his life and both times this year, the total has gone over and Kars has struggled against the rangers, red sox and devil rays in earlier outings this year and I can't see him having a quality start today. I think this game goes over around the 5th or 6th inning as the over is 6-1 when the O's face a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.3, the over is 4-1 in the Yanks last 5 home games and the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams.
IC WNBA: MINNESOTA vs SEATTLE


Play: MINNESOTA LYNX +9
Comments: IC WNBA: Lynx +9 (bump it up if it is at +8.5) I think the Lynx have a great shot at winning outright today and at worst, they hang in for the 2-4 point loss on the road today. The Lynx have already beaten this team twice when Lauren Jackson was healthy and Janelle Burse was healthy but now Jackson is back which will help this greatly but the fact the Lynx lost on the road to the Sparks is a big deal in my opinion, because this is a rivalry and will come down to the final minutes. The Lynx have shown they can hang with many teams and it is tough to play LA on the road, but in an up and down game, this team does very well and you'll see that today as I have them at a 40% shot at winning this game SU - so hence, this is why it it is on the card. I know Seattle has big revenge tonight, but I frankly don't care as the Lynx need to show up strong after a tough loss to the Sparks on the road. The Storm are 0-5 ATS following a straight up win.
IC MLB TOTAL: CWS vs OAKLAND


Play: Oakland/White Sox Over 8.5
Comments: Oakland/White Sox Over8.5 I am going to make Jon Garland beat me in this game today. I think the chances of the White Sox winning this game and it going under are slim and I will take my chances here. Garland got beat up last time by the young A's team who is hitting the ball well for the most part after the Rangers series as well as the Tiger series and the Whitesox were embarrassed by Jeff Weaver at home and shutout and although Dinardo is good, this White sox team has been rocking the ball against other foes including against some of the better pitchers in the league including picking up at least 5 or more runs against Sabathia, Washburn, Batista and Laffey. When Garland pitches, games typically go over as well. I think once again that Dinardo will pitch well enough to win but I think the A's just rock Garland and this will be a high scoring final, quite possibly 6-4 or even 9-4 but the A's win. This game comes down to who will be worse, or less worse, and I think Dinardo will be

LVTR POWER PLAY: NY Mets vs Pittsburgh


Play: NY METS
Comments: LVTR POWER PLAY: NY METS!!! Hernandez 9-2 Away off a team win. Snell 0-3, 5.82 ERA L3 starts. Mets won last six Hernandez starts (3-0, 2.72). Snell is 0-6, 8.16 in his last six starts.
The Straley Group: Baltimore vs New York Yankees


Play: Orioles vs Yankees over 10.5
Comments: Straley - Yankees over 10.5
The Wise Owl Syndicate - Mets vs Pittsburgh


Play: New York Mets
Comments: The Wise Owl Syndicate - Mets

IC MLB TOTAL: KC vs Texas


Play: Royals/Rangers Over 10
Comments: IC MLB TOTAL: Royals/Rangers Over 10. I don't trust Kyle Davies after a great start, and I don't trust Kevin Millwood at all given his lack of performance over his last few starts as well. Davies pitched great at home, but I question how well he will do on the road as he is likely to get roughed up and although the Royals have trouble putting up runs at times, they did hit Litsch well yesterday and have had solid success against Millwood and 10 is not a bad total for this match up here as when two bad teams hook up, games typically go over as the offenses get it together. The over is 4-1-1 when the Royals play a losing team

LVTR : Arizona vs Florida


Play: Florida
Comments: LVTR mlb: play on The Florida Marlins with Willis. Yes we know Willis has been mired in a slump but there are days where the stars align and this is the day. Let's look closer at Willis. 0-3 TSR, 3.86 ERA L3 starts. Those ERA numbers would have been good enough to win on most teams. His era has dropped almost two full points because of it. This tells us that Willis is getting stronger as the season progresses. Kim who used to play for Florida will start against his former team as he takes the mound for Arizona. This guy is like Jekyll and Hyde. He seems to like those road games out west but can't seem to adjust to the humidity in the Florida air. He went back to his old ways in his first start in Arizona as he gave up 5 runs in 2.5 innings and was booed out of the stadium by the hometown fans. If you look deeper at Willis numbers, you’ll see he gets wins when he faces an opposing teams worst pitcher. Dontrelle can't ask for more than what he's getting tonight, If he stays on course as he has in his last three, Marlins will have an early lead and should be able to hang on for a victory.

LVTR POWER PLAY #2: SAN FRAN vs Atlanta


Play: Atlanta
Comments: LVTR POWER PLAY #2: Take Altanata Braves. We are giving up a good amount to risk on this game but the numbers are too strong to look past and it's an isolated situational play that rarely comes along. San Fran is coming off a double header from Monday and played late into the night. They now have to fly south to Atlanta and face a well rested Braves team. San Fran is in such dissarray that they had to call up a pitCher from the minor leagues as the double header threw their pitching rotation out of whack. Atchison: San Francisco 0-7 SU after a win by 6+ runs. Smoltz: Atlanta 11-3 SU playing with a day off

 

[patriots12]

Chicago Hotsides


+68.44 for 2007 baseball
-72.11u for 2006 baseball


2 Units NY Mets -140
2 Units Atlanta -1.5 -110
1 Unit Milwaukee -130
1 Unit Colorado -105
1 Unit Toronto -160
1 Unit Florida -135
1 Unit Texas -144
1 Unit Philly -105
1 Unit Cleveland -145

 

[patriots12]

Wild Bill


Arizona +125 (1 unit)
Mets -140 (1 unit)
Over 8 1/2 Mets-Pirates (1 unit)
Reds +130 (1 unit)
Colorado +105 (1 unit)
Houston +135 (1 unit)
over 8 1/2 Dodgers-Astros (1 unit)
Detroit +130 (1 unit)
Angels +150 (1 unit)
A's +110 (1 unit)
Seattle -110 (1 unit)

 

[patriots12]

Russ Culver

Pirates +128
Giants +220
Astros +135
Royals +132
Mariners -105
TB-Boston UNDER 10 -115 (Kazmir-Lester)
NY-Pittsburgh UNDER 8 1/2 -116 (Hernandez-Snell)
Cincinnati-Chicago UNDER 8 -120 (Harang-Zambrano)
Chicago-Oakland UNDER 8 1/2 -105 (Garland-DiNardo)

 

[patriots12]

Will Cover

4* Arizona

 

[patriots12]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (9-2 or 82% winners since July 18!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Sea Mariners at 10:05 ET. Richie Sexson hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth to lead the Mariners to a 4-3 win in Monday's opener. Seattle (66-50) has now won six of its last seven games and is 12-4 since July 27. The Mariners have been atop MLB's moneyline standings (plus-$2,177) for quite awhile now, with a good portion of those profits coming at home (plus-$1,524). On the mound for Seattle tonight is Horacio Ramirez. Ramirez, like Ervin Santana and Wandy Rodriguez, is a DISASTER on the road but is Sandy Koufax-like at home. He is 1-3 with a 13.50 ERA and .410 opponent batting average in six road outings but owns a solid 3.24 ERA (OK, that's not QUITE Sandy Koufax numbers!) in seven home starts, where he's 6-0 (team is 7-0). Let's contrast this to the Twins, who have dropped 12 of their last 15 games on the road and are trying to avoid a season-high sixth straight overall loss. The Twins (58-60) are two games under .500 for the first time since June 9 due to a stagnant offense. They have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 12 games and are averaging just 1.8 runs during a five-game losing streak. Matt Garza (1-3, 1.70 ERA) has been one of the biggest victims of the Twins' offensive struggles. He has gotten two or fewer runs of support in all but one of his six starts and no runs in three of those games. Despite holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all of his six starts this season, he has recorded just one victory. With all this, Seattle opened as a small $1.20 favorite and the early 'move' came in on the Twins. You MUST be kidding? The opener should have been about $1.50! Oddsmaker's Error on the Sea Mariners.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* AL Game of the Week (current 8-1 run / 91-31 on the Y-T-D!)
My 15* play is on the Oak A's at 10:05 ET. The A's have won eight of their last 13 games after Monday's 7-2 win at Detroit. Although they lost two of three against the White Sox here in Oakland during April, the A's are 26-10 in Oakland against the White Sox since 2000! Meanwhile, the White Sox have lost four of their last six. Jon Garland will take the mound and the pitcher who has posted back-to-back 18-win seasons, has struggled for most of '07. He's 8-7 with a 4.56 ERA in 23 starts in '07, with the White Sox going 10-13. The right-hander is just 3-7 with a 4.44 ERA in 12 starts (team is 4-8) against the Athletics in his career. Lenny DiNardo will start for the A's. The lefty made his first 11 appearances this year out of the bullpen but 13 of his last 14 appearances have been in the role of a starter. His first start came back on May 29 and he's allowed two ERs or less EIGHT times. He's made six post-All Star starts and except for a terrible outing at Seattle (which 'kills' lefties!), he's 3-1 witha 2.64 ERA in his other five starts (A's are 4-1). That bodes well tonight against a White Sox team that's struggled this decade in Oakland and one that THIS YEAR, is only 13-23 (minus-$1,135) when facing a lefty! AL Game of the Week 15* Oak A's.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (now 91-31 since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the NY Mets at 7:05 ET. Let me get some bad news out of the way early. New York (65-52) entered a six-game homestand last Tuesday with a 4 1/2-game cushion in the division standings but Mets pitchers posted a 5.33 ERA as the team lost four of six games, including two of three against division rival Atlanta. The Mets now lead second-place Philadelphia by three games with Atlanta trailing by 3 1/2. The Mets hope to regroup at PNC Park. They were swept in a three-game series in Pittsburgh last year, and have lost seven of their last eight contests there. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh swept a three-game series in San Francisco over the weekend, then split a doubleheader against the Giants at home on Monday. Now to WHY I'm playing the Mets. New York has the league's best record against NL Central opponents at 21-9 and is 20-9 (plus-$1,200) when facing a right-handed starter on the road (at night), averaging 5.4 RPG. Let's not forget that the Pirates own the NL's worst record (49-67) and that they rank 26th in MLB's moneyline standings (minus-$1,102), including minus-$926 here at home. Now to the CLINCHER! Since the All Star break, El Duque is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his six starts (Mets are 6-0), while Pittsburgh's Ian Snell (a right-hander), has IMPLODED. He's 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA in his starts, with Pittsburgh losing all six. I'll also throw into the mix the fact that while Pittsburgh returned home on Sunday night from a six-game road trip to play a doubleheader with the Giants on Monday, the Mets had an "off day!" Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* NY Mets.

Good Luck...Larry

 

[Moon88]

Excellent info guys thanks!!!