Ben Burns Personal Favorite
MARLINS
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 8/14/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The Marlins have always been excellent as home favorites in this range and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Marlins are 10-5 (+2.8) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range this season, 28-17 (+4.9) the last couple of seasons and 112-71 (+14.9) the past decade. Willis certainly hasn't had his best season and he's currently suffering through the worst losing streak of his career. However, he's been significantly better lately, recording a respectable 3.86 ERA his last three starts, averaging greater than six innings per start. That's alot better than his opponent, Kim, has been lately. Over his last three starts, Kim has a poor 5.69 ERA and a terrible 2.054 WHIP, averaging barely more than four innings per start. Note that the last time that Kim faced the Marlins (June 2006) his team lost by a score of 13-0 with Kim giving up six earned runs in five innings. The bullpens have similar stats as the Diamondbacks' relievers have a 4.37 ERA on the road while the Marlins bullpen is slightly better with a 4.19 ERA at home. The Marlins average 4.8 runs per game on offense, when playing at home. The Diamondbacks average a mere 3.8 runs per game, when playing on the road. Willis is no quitter. He recently was quoted as saying: "I'm battling. This game is not made for the weak. For people on the outside, that's hard to fathom. I don't feel sorry. I don't feel down at all." Despite his current losing streak, I feel that Willis is still a more talented pitcher than Kim, his former teammate. I expect him to have a decent outing and for his team to rally around him. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns Big Chalk GOM
JAYS
Game: Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Time: 8/14/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Reason: I'm laying the price with TORONTO. It must seem like deja vu to Roy Halladay. Like they were for his last start and like they have been so many times in the past, the Jays are coming off a loss and desperately need their ace to deliver a win. Time and time again, Halladay has thrived in this situation. In his last start, he outpitched Wang and the Jays beat up on the Yankees. That brought the Jays to a perfect 8-0 in his last eight home starts, winning those eight games by an average of more than five runs per game! For the season, Halladay is 9-1 in 12 starts at the Rogers Centre. Note that the last time Halladay faced the Angels here, he tossed a complete game and the Jays won 5-1. Saunders has fared well in a couple of home starts vs. the Jays. However, he has never pitched here and he'll face a Jays team which has won nine of its last 12 home games vs. left-handed starters. As a team, the Angels are terrific at home but below 500 on the road. They've also lost six of their last seven visits to Toronto. Look for Halladay to outpitch Saunders as the Jays earn a much needed victory and improve to 14-6 the last 20 times they were a host in this series. *Big Chalk GOM
Ben Burns' BLUE CHIP Total
UNDER yankees/orioles
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Game Time: 8/14/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: Cabrera has pitched quite well on the road lately. Most recently, he allowed only one run through seven complete innings at Tampa Bay. That game finished well below the total with a final score of 3-1. Nine of Cabrera's last 11 road starts have now seen 11 or fewer (combined) runs scored. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 7-3-1 in those 11 games. As a team, despite yesterday's game finishing above the number, the Orioles have seen the UNDER go 10-6 their last 16 road games and 6-4-2 their last dozen games at Yankee Stadium. Karstens has never started against the Orioles. However, he was very sharp when he faced them in relief, allowing one run and only one hit over five innings. Looking back to last season and we find that five of Karsten's last six starts produced 11 combined runs or less. Looking at some "other" stats and we find that both teams have been profitable to UNDER bettors in their current role. In fact, the Orioles have seen the UNDER go a near-perfect 7-0-1 in eight games this season when listed as a road underdog in the +150 to +175 range. Meanwhile, we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 40-18-5 the past three seasons when the Yankees were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Look for those numbers to improve as tonight's final combined score to fall below the generous number once again.