Guaranteed Pick:
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Ball St. at Nebraska Sep 22 2007 12:30PM
Prediction: Nebraska
Reason: Play on Nebraska at 12:30 ET. The last thing Ball St. needed was Nebraska getting embarrassed by USC, the week before the Cardinals visited Lincoln. Unfortunately for Ball St, that's exactly what happened! After opening with a 14-13 home loss to Miami-Ohio, Ball St. has won two straight on the road, including last week's draining 34-31 OT win at Navy. The Cardinals won despite allowing 521 rushing yards and now get a Nebrska team looking to "make up" for its non-competitive performance against USC. Making matters worse, this will be Ball St's third straight road game. Ball St. QB Nate Davis has not been quite as sharp completion-wise as LY (61.2%), connecting on just 53.3% so far, but he does have eight TDs versus just one interception. The problem though, is that the Ball St. defense (allowing 268.7 ypg on the ground and 6.2 ypc), will have to face a solid Nebraska running game (186.3 ypg) plus face a QB in Sam Keller, looking for a breakout game. Expectations were high entering the USC game and all Nebraska can do now is "take it out" on Ball ST. Expect just that to happen! Since losing to Southern Miss in Lincoln in his first year at Nebraska ('04), Callahan has won all five of his home games versus non-conference opponents, going 4-1 ATS. In the four ATS wins, the Cornhuskers have 'covered' by a combined total of 91 points, winning the last three games by the combined score of 157-20! Fill in the blanks here. Nebraska is my 25* Blowout GOY.
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: East Carolina at West Virginia Sep 22 2007 12:00PM
Prediction: East Carolina
Reason: Play on East Carolina at 12:00 ET. West Va's dynamic duo of RB Steve Slaton (392 yards / 5.9 ypc / 8 TDs) and QB Pat White (244 yards / 6.4 ypc plus 63.3 % with a 4-0 ratio) have been joined by freshman RB noel Devine (256 yards / 15.1 ypc)! West Va. has averaged 343.7 ypg and 7.1 ypc with 16 rushing TDs in '07. In comparison, East Carolina averages just 101.0 ypg on the ground (2.9 ypc). The Pirates' leading rusher is QB Patrick Pinkney, who has only 109 yards. Pinkney has however, proven to be an effective passer (65.7%), who has made few mistakes (five TDs and just one INT). On paper it's all Mountaineers but just as we saw on September 1 in Blacksburg, East Carolina is better on the field than on paper. Va. Tech, a 27 1/2-point favorite, escaped with just a 17-7 win at home that day. So what else is new? East Carolina is now 10-1 as a road dog under Skip Holtz! Last year, West Va. came to Greenville and beat East Carolina 27-10 (East Carolina covered as a 21-point dog) and it's hard to imagine any team playing any better against the West Va. rushing attack than the Pirates, who held the Mountaineers to 153 yards and 3.6 ypc. East Carolina's rush D has allowed only 86.0 ypg in '07 and 2.5 ypc. Take the points! 15* East Carolina.
Game: Air Force at BYU Sep 22 2007 3:00PM
Prediction: BYU
Reason: Play on BYU at 3:00 ET. BYU has handled Air Force easily in each of the last three years, winning by an average margin of 19 ppg. The Cougars won't take the Falcons lightly though, as Air Force, under first-year head coach Troy Calhoun, has opened 3-0. The Falcons are already 2-0 in MWC play (beat Utah and TCU), while the Cougars will be playing their conference opener, here. Air Force may been lucky to beat both Utah and TCU (especially the Horned Frogs, who basically gave the game to Air Force) but none the less, Air Force is 3-0. The Cougars have had problems with turnovers and penalties in losses to UCLA and Tulsa but QB Max Hall, a question mark at the beginning of the season, keeps getting better. He threw for 537 yards and four TDs in the 55-47 loss at Tulsa and there is no way the Air Force secondary can effectively stop the Cougars' passing game. The UCLA loss ended a BYU 11-game winning streak and now, after back-to-back losses, the Cougars will be focused and ready. How about this pointspread stat? The SU winner of this series has gone 19-1 ATS the last 20 meetings! 15* BYU.
Game: Miami Ohio at Colorado Sep 22 2007 3:30PM
Prediction: Colorado
Reason: Play on Colorado at 3:30 ET. Miami-Ohio got lucky back on August 30, edging Ball St, 14-13. The RedHawks have since lost back-to-back games, a three-OT affair at Minnesota, before getting crushed by rival Cincinnati last Saturday, 47-10. Miami's OL has been banged up all season but the expected return to health of RB Brandon Murphy gave Miami hope its running game (under 100 ypg in '06) would take some pressure of its two QBs. Neither Kokal nor Raudabaugh figured to remind anyone of Roethlisbeger and they haven't. Kokal's been benched and Raudabaugh will start. However, the bigger news is that Murphy is done for the year (injured again) and his backup (Bratton), will sit out this week out as well. Miami has allowed 451 ypg and 33.7 ppg after three games and this trip to Boulder is the team's third road game in its first four! Colorado QB Cody Hawkins had 306 passing yards versus Florida St last Saturday night and RB Hugh Charles could be ready to contribute again to a running game that really misses him. Dan Hawkins was a big winner at Boise State but after a 2-10 mark in his first year at Boulder, sees no win is insignificant these days. The Buffs have seven teams on their schedule which played in bowl games last year and Miami is NOT one of them. Like, Colorado, Miami has fallen on hard times (also 2-10 in '06) but all the scheduling edges favor Colorado is this one. Plus, Hawkins' team owns the talent edge on both sides of the ball. 15* Colorado.