Ferringo Baseball
Ferringo Baseball
2.5-Unit Play. Take #952 Cincinnati (-130) over St. Louis (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 13)
You all know how I feel about Kip Wells and Aaron Harang. There really isn’t much more to say than that. The Cardinals are not the same team since they lost Scott Rolen and the Reds have been one of the nice surprises of the second half of the season. This is great value on a clear pitching mismatch.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #964 Seattle (-140) over Tampa Bay (10 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 13)
Jeff Weaver is the American League Kip Wells. The guy is pathetic. But you know who’s more pathetic? The D-Rays. They had to make a late flight out after blowing yet another huge lead against the Red Sox last night. At this point they have to already be thinking about their offseason plans. The Mariners are going to try to build some momentum off last night’s walk-off win and I think they do so by scraping one out against the Rays. I also really like the ‘over’ in this game and I suggest dropping a Unit on that as well.
Ferringo Baseball
2.5-Unit Play. Take #952 Cincinnati (-130) over St. Louis (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 13)
You all know how I feel about Kip Wells and Aaron Harang. There really isn’t much more to say than that. The Cardinals are not the same team since they lost Scott Rolen and the Reds have been one of the nice surprises of the second half of the season. This is great value on a clear pitching mismatch.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #964 Seattle (-140) over Tampa Bay (10 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 13)
Jeff Weaver is the American League Kip Wells. The guy is pathetic. But you know who’s more pathetic? The D-Rays. They had to make a late flight out after blowing yet another huge lead against the Red Sox last night. At this point they have to already be thinking about their offseason plans. The Mariners are going to try to build some momentum off last night’s walk-off win and I think they do so by scraping one out against the Rays. I also really like the ‘over’ in this game and I suggest dropping a Unit on that as well.
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: West Virginia at Maryland Sep 13 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: Play on West Va. at 7:45 ET. Last week West Va. had just six points at the half in Huntington, West Va. versus Marshall. However, the Mountaineers scored 42 points in the second half to win, 48-23. They finished with 511 total yards and after two games, rank seventh in the nation in ypg (526.5) and fourth in scoring at 55.0 ppg. West Va. is 2nd in rushing yards at 339.0 ypg (7.0 ypc with 12 TDs!), featuring the dynamic one-two combination of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton (both Heisman candidates). White has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards (4 TDPs and no INTs), plus run for 222 yards (8.2 ypc) and three more TDs. Slaton has 255 yards (6.4 ypc) and five TDs. The defense has allowed 23.5 ppg but Maryland's offense is hardly a threat. Maryland's D has been great, allowing 46.5 ypg rushing (1.9 ypc) and 128.5 ypg through the air (49% completions). However, the Terps have played Villanova (Div I-AA) and Florida International (loser of 13 straight). Ironically, West Va's Rich Rodriguez and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen are both in their seventh years at their respective schools and both own identical 52-24 marks. However, Rodriguez has the much superior team and will cover this double-digit spread with "room to spare," after last week's "wake-up call" at Marshall. West Va. is my 15* Prime Time Showdown.
Game: West Virginia at Maryland Sep 13 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: Play on West Va. at 7:45 ET. Last week West Va. had just six points at the half in Huntington, West Va. versus Marshall. However, the Mountaineers scored 42 points in the second half to win, 48-23. They finished with 511 total yards and after two games, rank seventh in the nation in ypg (526.5) and fourth in scoring at 55.0 ppg. West Va. is 2nd in rushing yards at 339.0 ypg (7.0 ypc with 12 TDs!), featuring the dynamic one-two combination of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton (both Heisman candidates). White has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards (4 TDPs and no INTs), plus run for 222 yards (8.2 ypc) and three more TDs. Slaton has 255 yards (6.4 ypc) and five TDs. The defense has allowed 23.5 ppg but Maryland's offense is hardly a threat. Maryland's D has been great, allowing 46.5 ypg rushing (1.9 ypc) and 128.5 ypg through the air (49% completions). However, the Terps have played Villanova (Div I-AA) and Florida International (loser of 13 straight). Ironically, West Va's Rich Rodriguez and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen are both in their seventh years at their respective schools and both own identical 52-24 marks. However, Rodriguez has the much superior team and will cover this double-digit spread with "room to spare," after last week's "wake-up call" at Marshall. West Va. is my 15* Prime Time Showdown.
Ben Burns NCAA
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Regular:
air force under TOM
maryland ROAST
Ben Burns' Pitching MISMATCH of the Month (38-19 L57!) -- Thursday
I'm playing on TORONTO. While the "Wildcard" spot is all but mathematically out of the question, the Jays should have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Burnett has been brilliant lately. In his most recent start he pitched eight complete innings, while allowing just three hits and one run. That marked the fourth time in his six starts since returning from the disabled list that Burnett has allowed one run or less. In fact, he is 3-1 with a miniscule 1.90 ERA over that stretch! Note that he allowed three runs or less in all six of those starts, lasting greater than six innings in ALL of them. On the other hand, Kennedy lasted just five innings his last time out. Note that was just Kennedy's second career start and that he allowed seven hits and three walks. For the season, Burnett is 5-2 with an excellent 2.74 ERA and 1.027 WHIP at home for the season. Burnett is also 3-2 with a solid 3.73 ERA vs. the Yankees. In his lone start against them this season, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, en route to a 6-0 Toronto victory. While Burnett is backed by a Jays' bullpen which has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 1.046 WHIP at home, Kennedy will be supported by a Yankees' bullpen which has a poor 4.46 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Yankees could get looking ahead to tomorrow's big game/series vs. Boston and also that they haven't swept a series here in more than four years. Behind another strong start from Burnett, look for the Jays to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep. *Pitching Mismatch of the Month
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Regular:
air force under TOM
maryland ROAST
Ben Burns' Pitching MISMATCH of the Month (38-19 L57!) -- Thursday
I'm playing on TORONTO. While the "Wildcard" spot is all but mathematically out of the question, the Jays should have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Burnett has been brilliant lately. In his most recent start he pitched eight complete innings, while allowing just three hits and one run. That marked the fourth time in his six starts since returning from the disabled list that Burnett has allowed one run or less. In fact, he is 3-1 with a miniscule 1.90 ERA over that stretch! Note that he allowed three runs or less in all six of those starts, lasting greater than six innings in ALL of them. On the other hand, Kennedy lasted just five innings his last time out. Note that was just Kennedy's second career start and that he allowed seven hits and three walks. For the season, Burnett is 5-2 with an excellent 2.74 ERA and 1.027 WHIP at home for the season. Burnett is also 3-2 with a solid 3.73 ERA vs. the Yankees. In his lone start against them this season, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, en route to a 6-0 Toronto victory. While Burnett is backed by a Jays' bullpen which has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 1.046 WHIP at home, Kennedy will be supported by a Yankees' bullpen which has a poor 4.46 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Yankees could get looking ahead to tomorrow's big game/series vs. Boston and also that they haven't swept a series here in more than four years. Behind another strong start from Burnett, look for the Jays to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep. *Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose
Game: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Sep 13 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite. In their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter they are 12-4. Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games. Francis is on the mound tonight and in his last 8 starts as a favorite, the Rockies are 7-1. In his last 51 starts overall the Rockies are a money making 35-16. The Phillies are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Philadelphia was ponded 12-0 last night by the Rockies. Durbin's on the mound and the Phillies have lost 3 of his last 4 starts. Philadelphia has dropped 4 of the 6 meetings with Colorado this season.
Colorado Rockies
Game: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Sep 13 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite. In their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter they are 12-4. Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games. Francis is on the mound tonight and in his last 8 starts as a favorite, the Rockies are 7-1. In his last 51 starts overall the Rockies are a money making 35-16. The Phillies are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Philadelphia was ponded 12-0 last night by the Rockies. Durbin's on the mound and the Phillies have lost 3 of his last 4 starts. Philadelphia has dropped 4 of the 6 meetings with Colorado this season.
Colorado Rockies
JR Miller
Premium
COLORADO ROCKIES -114 at Phillies (Francis-Durbin)
We have to like Francis over Durbin. Check their stats in their last few games. Meanwhile, in the last three games of this series the Rockies' bats have beaten hell out of the Phillies' bats. Better pitcher, better bats...What could possibly go wrong go wronq go wronkcxftg...? We'd take the Rockies up to -125, even here on the road.
Rangers at Athletics OVER 9.0 +101 (Millwood-Gaudin)
Neither of these pitchers have been up to par in their recent games. Both appear to be vulnerable, and both these teams' batting stats are currently substantially above average. Note that the Rangers have traveled 2,000+ miles since yesterday (from Detroit), and the Athletics traveled from Seattle since yesterday. (Being a pro baseball player sometimes seems as much about traveling as it is about playing baseball.) In any case, we'd take the 'Over' 9.0 here up to a posted line of -120, so getting +101 seems to offer solid value.
Premium
COLORADO ROCKIES -114 at Phillies (Francis-Durbin)
We have to like Francis over Durbin. Check their stats in their last few games. Meanwhile, in the last three games of this series the Rockies' bats have beaten hell out of the Phillies' bats. Better pitcher, better bats...What could possibly go wrong go wronq go wronkcxftg...? We'd take the Rockies up to -125, even here on the road.
Rangers at Athletics OVER 9.0 +101 (Millwood-Gaudin)
Neither of these pitchers have been up to par in their recent games. Both appear to be vulnerable, and both these teams' batting stats are currently substantially above average. Note that the Rangers have traveled 2,000+ miles since yesterday (from Detroit), and the Athletics traveled from Seattle since yesterday. (Being a pro baseball player sometimes seems as much about traveling as it is about playing baseball.) In any case, we'd take the 'Over' 9.0 here up to a posted line of -120, so getting +101 seems to offer solid value.
[FONT=arial, helvetica][SIZE=-1]Ben Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE (6-1 L7 PF's!) -- Thursday[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica][SIZE=-1] [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica][SIZE=-1]I feel that they'll have the "momentum" on their side and I'm laying the price with the SEATTLE MARINERS. These teams were on the opposite end of dramatic games last night. The Devil Rays figure to be somewhat deflated tonight after blowing a 4-0 lead and losing on a 2-run walkoff homerun in the bottom of the ninth. On the other hand, the Mariners finally snapped their skid last night, earning an extremely important win with a RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. As outfielder Guillen commented: "Hopefully this is a wake-up call, and we can start winning games from here on." I expect that to be the case, at least for tonight, and for the Mariners to carry that positive momentum into their series with the Devil Rays. Admittedly, Weaver hasn't been great lately. However, his stats remain superior to Hammel's stats for the year. In fact, despite coming off a solid outing,. Hammel is just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.610 WHIP as a starter. Note that he will be supported by an atrocious Tampa Bay bullpen which has a 7.98 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road. The Mariners have won seven of their last eight home games in this series. They are also a highly profitable 17-4 (+11.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Look for them to win back to back games for the first time this month. *Personal Favorite[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica][SIZE=-1] [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica][SIZE=-1]I feel that they'll have the "momentum" on their side and I'm laying the price with the SEATTLE MARINERS. These teams were on the opposite end of dramatic games last night. The Devil Rays figure to be somewhat deflated tonight after blowing a 4-0 lead and losing on a 2-run walkoff homerun in the bottom of the ninth. On the other hand, the Mariners finally snapped their skid last night, earning an extremely important win with a RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. As outfielder Guillen commented: "Hopefully this is a wake-up call, and we can start winning games from here on." I expect that to be the case, at least for tonight, and for the Mariners to carry that positive momentum into their series with the Devil Rays. Admittedly, Weaver hasn't been great lately. However, his stats remain superior to Hammel's stats for the year. In fact, despite coming off a solid outing,. Hammel is just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.610 WHIP as a starter. Note that he will be supported by an atrocious Tampa Bay bullpen which has a 7.98 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road. The Mariners have won seven of their last eight home games in this series. They are also a highly profitable 17-4 (+11.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Look for them to win back to back games for the first time this month. *Personal Favorite[/SIZE][/FONT]
