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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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actually i'm wrong they lost 8.7 billion last quarter but had alot of writeoffs and things and has 26.6 billion in cash and equivalents left for now

their loss from operations after tax was 1.4 billion

they aren't close to done for now

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Ford posts $8.7 billion 2nd-quarter loss
Bryce G. Hoffman / The Detroit News

Ford Motor Co. posted an $8.7 billion second-quarter loss today -- the worst quarterly results in the automaker 105-year history.

..................

Excluding special items, the company's loss from continuing operations was $1 billion before taxes and $1.4 billion after taxes, translating into a loss of 62 cents per share. Wall Street had been anticipating a loss of 27 cents per share, according to a survey of a dozen analysts by the Thomson Financial Network.

That compared to a net profit of $750 million, or 31 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2007.

The one-time write-offs included a $5.3 billion charge stemming from a decline in the value of Ford's North American assets and, more troubling, a $2.1 billion decline in the value of its lending arm's lease portfolio.

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markets really put up a fight to hold down 2% all day....anywho like i said likely a grind but we heading lower probably waterfalling to some degree....near term bottom sometime in late september my time frame target.....and than they can dead cat bounce it into elections.....and than in 2009 we take out dow 10,000....likely will hold 10k on this swoon down
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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more where this came from spread throughout the financial markets

fnm/fre paper everywhere

and this particular paper goes to 0 under a government bailout scenerio anyway

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JPMorgan Says Fannie, Freddie Share Value Drops $600 Million
By Edgar Ortega

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by market value, said the value of a $1.2 billion investment in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae has declined by half so far this quarter.

Losses from the investment in perpetual preferred shares in the two U.S. mortgage lenders may cut into quarterly earnings, the New York-based company said today in a regulatory filing.

''The precise amount of losses that may be incurred on these securities for the third quarter is difficult to determine, given the significant volatility being experienced in the market values of these securities,'' JPMorgan said in the filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edgar Ortega in New York at ebarrales@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 25, 2008 12:59 EDT
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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volume still really crudy today

buying interest continues to dry up as we begin to rollover

will pick up again as we approach another near term bottom
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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secular bear started in 2000 IMO....regardless of how you blame the bush administration in this whole mess.....

with some comments from J6P

more can be found here

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/25/are-you-better-off-now-than-8-years-ago/

FROM CNN’s Jack Cafferty:

Ronald Reagan had some success with this question a few years ago and things weren’t nearly as crummy then as they are now: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? But this time it’s been 8 years.

Think about it: unemployment is rising. The rate stands at 5.7% and we have lost 463,000 jobs since the first of the year. And so is inflation. It’s accelerating at a faster rate than it has in 17 years. Gas prices are up 34% in the last year. Oil was around $26 a barrel when President Bush was inaugurated… it touched $147 a few weeks ago. More than 1 million homes are now in foreclosure.

Here are some national comparisons between today and where things were 8 years ago: Americans’ wages have actually gone down since the last recession ended. And we are spending 14.1% of our disposable income on debt; that’s higher than it was in 2001.

Americans are pretty glum about the future, too. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at almost 85% in 2001; now it’s just below 52%.

Also, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll finds 75% of those surveyed think the economy is in bad shape; that’s compared to just 43% who felt that way a year ago.

So as the conventions get under way and the campaign for the White House heats up — voters have a lot to think about.

Here’s my question to you: With the election 71 days away, are you better off now than you were eight years ago?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

Anthony from Wildwood Crest, New Jersey writes:
Not even close! If you add the Bush years plus 2 happy additions called mouths to feed, we are STRUGGLING!!! If it was up to me, we would get rid of the pathetic Electoral College that allowed him in and change the 2 term limits. Why do we have representatives and senators who decide what happens in America until they are 90, but can’t re-elect a great president who had a SURPLUS? Remember those good ole days called the ‘90s?

Stacy from Virginia writes:
Jack, I cannot complain about the past eight years personally. My salary has steadily increased, I bought a reasonable house, I got married and my wife and I are expecting twins in October. The country, however, is not better off than 8 years ago. Eight years ago, there was optimism, a healthy economy, and a federal budget that had a surplus. No there is fear and pessimism, an economy in danger and record deficit spending.

Gary from Asheville, North Carolina writes:
The more relevant question is whether Americans have gotten what they deserved by twice voting into the presidency a man they would prefer to have a beer with. Al Gore and John Kerry were “boring” while George Bush was just a down-home kind of guy. Americans, at least the Democrats, seem prepared to do the same thing again, vote for someone they would like to go clubbing with. Obama is cool in a Harry Belafonte kind of way. But nobody really knows what he thinks, just like Bush. That’s scary.

David writes:
In a word, yes! Those who were prudent with finances and did not take risky or ill-advised mortgages should be better off. Those who racked up huge debt on credit cards and the like reap what they sow!

John from Atlanta writes:
You got jokes. Have you gotten a raise lately? Paid for a gallon of gas? Tried to get a job in Ohio or Indiana? Had a foreclosure? Know someone who has? Lost a relative in the Iraq War, or know someone going… again? Yeah, you got jokes.

Chris from Valley, Alabama writes:
Jack, Sure we are if you make $5,000,000 and own 7 houses or is it 8 or 9? Tell you what, let my staff get back with your staff on the exact numbers.

Filed under: 2008 Election • US Economy

155 Comments | Add a comment | Permalink
Mark - Asheville, NC August 25th, 2008 2:11 pm ET

Of course not. But that isn’t going to elect Obama - this is not 1980, and he isn’t Ronald Reagan.
Jed in Redding, CA August 25th, 2008 2:12 pm ET

I must say that I am much better off than I was eight years ago. But that is despite President George W. Bush and certainly not because of him.
Jo ann Fulton August 25th, 2008 2:12 pm ET

Jo Ann
Washington STATE
We retired in 1999 and have some pension benefits plus Social Security. The pensions do not adjust to inflation and so we have gone backwards in 8 years on everything we buy. We are now very limited on the entertainment or extras we can allow. Our estimate is that our buying power has been cut by half.
Jayne August 25th, 2008 2:12 pm ET

Absolutely not. We can no longer afford health insurance, our business income has dropped a good 50% or more and our house, which we hoped would be a good investment, is now worth about as much as a used pup tent. Third world here we come.
dee, mi August 25th, 2008 2:13 pm ET

Definately not!!! McCain seems to think that the economy is great under the Bush policies. Seems like everytime he opens his mouth - dumb rolls out. The man is either senile or blind if he can’t see what’s happening to middle-class America.
Frank from Peterborough August 25th, 2008 2:13 pm ET

Well Jack I would have answer yes to this question but then I’m a Canadian and we don’t have the home foreclosures and bankruptcies you people are now experiencing.

I guess the main reason would be we are not spending billions of our tax dollars plus borrowing money to finance a foreign invasion and their subsequent reconstruction.
True Believer Mississippi August 25th, 2008 2:14 pm ET

Jack! No one believe they better off today after 8 years of bush, cheney. To answer your question NO.
Steve C August 25th, 2008 2:15 pm ET

Only the Elitists like John McCain are better off.

Steve
Laguna Niguel, CA
Josh in Sylvania, Ohio August 25th, 2008 2:16 pm ET

No, worse off than eight years ago. The economy in my state of Ohio is in shambles because of George W. Bush and those blasted Republicans. I guess any state who has been under Republican rule as long as my state has would be in economic shambles as well. Well Jack, in my state Ohio Republicans had sixteen years to do something to about the economy. But the only things they have done was help the rich executives move jobs overseas, find ways to get out of paying their fair share of taxes. I would love to take Bush and show him first hand what his reckless free trade policies have done to my state.
Tom, Avon, Maine, The Heart of Democracy August 25th, 2008 2:16 pm ET

Bin Laden is better off now than he was 8 years ago. Putin is better off now than he was 8 years ago. Big Oil is better off now than it was 8 years ago. America’s fortunes have suffered.
Richard McKinney, Texas August 25th, 2008 2:18 pm ET

That is a loaded question Jack. The wealthy and those with money and retirement accounts invested in oil are doing wonderfully. Those that are not are in a world of hurt.
Everything comes back to what the United States Congress has done or failed to do in the last 8 years. Bush could not have gone to war without their approval. They gave the nod for war. Lets start looking at the real problem with our government instead of blaming the moron cast as president. Electing a new president will not alter congress. Not one damn bit.
There is nothing in this country with a lower approval rating then the United States Congress.
Donna Colorado Springs,Co August 25th, 2008 2:27 pm ET

No, I’m not. Fortunately, my husband has a better job than he did eight years ago, but the cost of living and the price of gas has gotten so out of hand, that our budget is stretched just like everybody elses. I put all of the blame squarely on the shoulders of King George, and it terrifies me to think that McCain is hiding in the shadows just waiting to do exactly the same things to us that Bush did.! God help us all!
Sam from Philadelphia, PA August 25th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

I’m much better off than I was 8 years ago. I’ve got a really nice house in a beautiful neighborhood… for now.
Annie, Atlanta August 25th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

Not even close.
Jan Davis, Knoxville, TN August 25th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

Absolutely I am worse off than 8 years ago. In the Tennessee Valley we’ve just heard our already high electric rates are going up an additional 20 percent. Gas prices have affected me negatively. Everytime I go to the store or K-Mart, prices on just normal items like toilet paper keep rising. I think a lot of businesses are just taking advantage of the current economic situation in this country. I support Obama to ensure that things start turning around for the middle class. If we elect McCain, the middle class will no longer exist!
Peter TX August 25th, 2008 2:29 pm ET

What do you think Jack, when poor African countries currencies are gaining seriously on the dollar and lots of Europeans rather travel all the way to buy stuff here because it is cheaper due to a weak dollar, when you have to get an extra job just to get by, not even meeting your former standard of living eight years ago. what do you think Jack? it’s sure getting ugly in my wallet.

Peter, Dallas TX
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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you can trace the fault all the way back to FDR if you want

aka FNM/FRE and all the other shite....

no parties fault overall....we've just added more government and bailing along the way when things got kinda dicey...and might be reaching a point where no government can "save us" aka put it off for another day anymore

we had a good run from post great depression 30s to 2000

probably time for one of those bumps in the road

looking at things very long term
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also just thinking big picture american's haven't come up with a "big" discovery over the course of the past 8 years

like in the past we had the train, car, plane, assembly line, all that kinda shite along the way

than in the 80s up to 2000 it was the computer/internet revolution, technology boom with cell phones and all the other shit

right now we ain't doing much of anything other than finding cheap places of labor (china) and optimizing shit (and like the japs in cars doing better than us)

who knows what the next "big" thing is and most people don't see it before it comes....but it hasn't come

i mean we doing all the alternative energy shit but most of that can't compete with oil unless prices sky high

we need to come up with some sort of energy revolution (likely using the sun) to get us moving forward down the road
 

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Deflation.... I think not

Deflation is assumed here to mean the falling cost of living. Deflation is the failure of debt. That looks toward the OTC derivative meltdown and the ongoing collapses occurring now in financial entities that require liquidity increases through rescues that use public money. Increased liquidity results in an increased cost of living regardless of economic conditions. That is an economic axiom


How about a Chicken and $100,000 in every pot?
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The Bush Administration will do what they did the last time the "D" word was used as recorded below. That was totally dollar negative long term. Should Obama win, his administration would invent social approaches to money and business that the Bush and Roosevelt administration never heard of. These approaches will without any doubt be long-term dollar negative
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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commercial banks have been J6Ps money supply to keep up with the inflation that wages weren't keeping up with that allowed homes and all the other shit to bubble

we'll see how much or how many rebate check campaigns they do before the end

for now deflation is starting to win IMO

and fed outta rate cuts (well can cut to zero at some point i guess), already opened discount window, already bailed bsc, already gave us a rebate check, says they got a blank check ready for FNM/FRE etc...etc...

plus i'm just talking near term as these banks are locked up and can't lend....

could easily see big time inflation once that cleared up....but that point seems years away at this point

see WM quietly tankorama....3.60 now....july low was 3......WM going tits up would really cause a ruckus....likely not happening till 2009 if it does though i think.....
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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WM showing their desperation rolling out 5% cds

national city (NCC) has very high cd rates now too...at 5%

higher the rates the more desperate you know they are right now.....US bank (a safe big bank) 12 month cds at 3.15%

WaMu 5.00% APY 1-Year CD Rate (HOT!)

1.jpg
Posted in CD Rates by J. Wu
August 25, 2008 12:02 PM - 5 Comments
A few weeks ago we had a huge discussion about WaMu’s secret in-branch rates.
Now, Washington Mutual has quietly rolled out a killer 5.00% APY interest rate on their 12-month and 13-month CD accounts.
Although I strongly believe that this rate hike is a sign of desperation (have you seen their stock lately?) from WaMu, this yield is so awesome that it’s not going to stop me from opening an account. Just be sure to stay within FDIC insurance limits!
Rumor is that this promotion is valid until 8/29/2008, so keep that in mind if you are interested in this.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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y here comes an oil rally up over 2 bucks on the hurricane in gulf worries....even though dollar up (euro continues to get trashed)

looks like digestion day on the markets so far.....
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well the grind continues slowly turning over as the day progresses

once again tech's leading the charge (vs. SPX and dow)

we got the peak of the july rally on aug 11th looking back just been chopping/grinding lower since than....

should be in the low 10,000s on the dow in a month or so...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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gustav really starting to look like the fall guy for this plundge....volume will probably continue to be weak going into labor day weekend.....just made landfall in haiti but averted the dominican/haiti border which has huge mountains that can rip hurricanes to shreads....we'll see how much of cuba it dodges once it gets past haiti

if it ends up in the gulf as a strong cane after labor day as projected, the markets can than blame this leg down on mother nature when it has little to do with it......
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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j crew down 13.5% on earnings in AH

16:02 JCG prelim $0.28 vs $0.32 First Call consensus; revs $336.2 mln vs $337.86 mln First Call consensus

16:03 JCG sees FY09 $1.44-1.54 down from $1.70-1.75 vs $1.71 First Call consensus
 

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CHK made a nice gain for the good guys today (me) looking to get over the $52.00 price make a nice 7% profit and re-buy at a much lower price.
 

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CHK is a great stock, owned it for years

3 weeks ago I traded that bitch in at 45 out at 50, in at 43 out at 47 in at 42 out at 45 over the course of a week for a few dimes on the side

they are the market leader in NG, like DAW says that is what runs when the money flows into the sector

love NG. Predicted it would go to $15 when it was at $7 in JAN, but it got too hot too fast like oil and they took it down. I heard afterwords that Cramer was pumping it so that doesn't help but also a warm summer

NG gas will still get to $15 in the next 6 months most likely, especially with the news from Farmers Almanac that it will be a cold winter (which is why they have popped).......... I've held PMGYF for years also, as they are a very well run NG producer in Canada. It's at a decent price now, but I like to buy on 10% pullbacks. Gains are not huge but it is a very safe play and pays a 14% divy. Keep sending Daddy that check every month
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well yesterday volume was lowest so far in 2008 on NYSE continued snore for now as we grind on down very very slowly up a nudge to start it

oil keeps going cane or not figured it was due for a bounce

looks like gustav stalled over haiti and chewed it up pretty good we'll see how it does once it reemerges over water

jdog what's with these continued wild claims like NG 15 in 6 months "most likely"....i mean you can be bullish but these targets are nuts
 

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Aug 28, 2008
AsiaTimes

Foreign spigot off for US consumers
By Max Fraad Wolff

As US public attention shifts from the Olympics to running mates and the celebrity "news" de jour, the infrastructure beneath your house is termite-infested. Just beneath the nicely painted exterior and behind all the new appliances, doubt is boring through the beams, gnawing at the studs.

Alongside falling prices, rising mortgage rates, stricter credit conditions and general malaise, the structure that supports American home ownership is being condemned by market valuation. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have nose dived and been downgraded toward a smaller future - and these are more important names for your future than Joe, Sam, Kathy, Mitt, Meg ...

Fannie Mae was created in the depths of the Great Depression to decrease foreclosure and increase home ownership. In 1968, it was re-chartered as a public company, removed from within official government agency status. Freddie Mac, since its inception in 1970, has financed 50 million homes.

Fannie and Freddie mission statements make clear, they exist to facilitate, ease and cheapen home ownership. They do this by acting as liaisons between international capital markets and mortgage seekers. They borrow at preferential rates - based on the implicit/explicit - assurance of the US government. Borrowed funds are used to buy mortgages and bundles of mortgages. They provide credit guidelines and purchase mortgage issued by banks. This reduces banks' risk and provides banks with more cash, more quickly to make more loans at lower costs. These firms, then, exist to facilitate, ease and accelerate bank lending for home purchase.

Fannie and Freddie form a central hub between lenders and investors. After they buy American mortgages, they bundle sell and guarantee repayment. This transforms mortgages into investments for banks, corporations and governments all over the world. Your home mortgage, bundled with many other folks' mortgages, is sold, repackaged and assured by Fannie and Freddie. This reduces risk and assures global savings flow in to support American purchases of homes. International investment is the foundation on which our home ownership was built.

Well over US$1 trillion of our mortgages have been sold to foreign investors this way in the recent past. As you sit down and read this, your mortgage may well be "owned" by a firm, individual or central bank thousands of miles away. This relationship is neither healthy nor sustainable in its present form. Rising defaults, falling dollars and the sheer size of past borrowing are turning people off to American mortgages. The foundation below our houses is shifting.

What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the link between middle-class America and the global financial markets it has over-tapped across the last several decades. Fannie and Freddie were the support infrastructure connecting houses to capital market access. They have been caught with weak financials, swollen balance sheets and escalating default, just like the home owners they assist. The size of their retained mortgage portfolios is truly gigantic.

The extent of the firms' guarantee commitments is global in scope. Sixty-six global central banks buy loans bundled and or backed with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae involvement. As of June 30, 2007 foreign entities and individuals held over $1.4 trillion in securities of US agencies such as Freddie and Fannie.

Fannie Mae's June 2008 statement declares a gross mortgage portfolio of $750 billion and guarantees of mortgage backed securities and loans of $2.6 trillion. Freddie Mac's June statement details a retained portfolio balance of $792 billion and a total mortgage portfolio balance of $2.2 trillion. These two giants have retained interest in over $1.5 trillion and guaranteed over $4.5 trillion in mortgages, mortgage backed securities and loans. There are $11 trillion in outstanding mortgage liabilities in the US.

The US housing market continues to melt down with dire consequence. In the seven years from 2001 through late 2007, household real estate value increased by $8.873 trillion to $22.495 trillion. It has since fallen by $426 billion. Many claim we are at or a near a bottom. These claims should be viewed with extreme weariness. The housing downturn is not over and it will take a while after it is over to judge the damage.

The search for parallels with today yields little. The closest one finds is the interesting decline in home ownership across the period 1905-1920 followed by a surging rise across the '20s and then collapse across the 1930s. Fannie was born of this collapse, the ideology of The New Deal and sense that government-driven market interventions could broaden home ownership in America. This was a success. Home ownership did grow spectacularly across the period from 1938-2007. It is falling now as Fannie and Freddie flounder.

In 1940, US home ownership stood just below 44%. At the start of 2008 68% of Americans owned their home. Over the decades, Fannie and Freddie changed, middle-class America changed and the global financial realm underwent several revolutions. The last and most transformative revolution involved the rise of securitization and integration of global financial markets.

Securitization involves transforming assets and promises of future payment into financial products for sale to investors. International financial integration tears down the walls between national banking systems and allows savings, loans and payments to be gathered and transferred across international boundaries.

A world of wealth poured into US real estate through securitization and deregulation. This flow was channeled and molded by the actions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The decline of these firms will have dramatic and long-lasting implications for home mortgage finance. This will impact the price of American homes, the cost and ease of borrowing for home ownership.

Housing prices have further to fall and global savings will likely never be lent to American consumers at recent percentage levels. Across the past few years America has been borrowing over 50% of the world's internationally available savings. The diminishing role of Fannie and Freddie will impact more people, for far longer than presidential running-mate selections. Policy makers and managements in Fannie and Freddie are stuck. Today's consumer strength, their missions and international financial realities no longer align.

We face a housing finance future different from the recent past. Fannie and Freddie will not be able to function in the same way, or to the same extent. The debates about and plans for these firms will touch millions of families through housing prices, finance terms and cost. Fannie and Freddie are much more important than Joe, Sam, Kathy, Mitt, Meg ...

-------------------------------
Max Fraad Wolff is a doctoral candidate in economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and editor of the website GlobalMacroScope.
 

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tiz,

If obama wins the election, what is the chance he eliminates the no tax for home sellers holding their home for 2 years? Could this be a reason for alot of inventory on the market today?
 

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