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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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speaking of labor day

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Americans skip Labor Day trips as costs rise
By Carey Gillam and Rebekah Kebede
Fri Aug 22, 9:53 AM ET
After missing out on summer vacations because of high fuel prices and a weakening economy, many Americans won't be going anywhere over the Labor Day weekend either.

The number of people traveling 50 miles or more will drop by 0.9 percent this Labor Day weekend compared with last year, the biggest drop in at least eight years, according to travel and auto group AAA.

The expected decline comes after similar slowdowns in travel during the normally packed Memorial and Fourth of July holiday weekends this year. Americans have also experienced a downturn in overall summer travel because of rising gasoline prices and a weak dollar, which makes foreign travel more expensive for Americans.

Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is commonly seen as the last chance to get away while the weather is still hot. But for many this year, that won't be happening.

"I just can't afford it," said 26-year-old Ashley Tyrrell, who plans to skip her annual end-of-summer trek from her home in Overland Park, Kansas, to a family cabin in Wisconsin.

"I work full time. But food, gas, everything has just gone through the roof," said Tyrrell. "It's horrible. Congress is on vacation and they're probably soaking up the rays somewhere. We're soaking up high gas prices."

AAA said its annual online survey showed 34.38 million people plan to travel 50 miles or more between August 30 and September 1, down from 34.7 million last year.

That would be the biggest decline in travel during the end-of-summer holiday since at least 2000 and the first decline since 2006, the group, formerly known as the American Automobile Association, said in its survey of 8,500 people.

The number of Americans who travel by car will fall 1.1 percent to 28.64 million. Meanwhile, some 3.96 million people are planning to travel by plane, a decline of 4.5 percent from last year. Other modes of travel, such as train and bus, are expected to get a 12.5 percent boost with 1.8 million travelers, AAA said.

"More travelers concerned about the economy, gasoline prices and rising airfares are opting to travel by train, bus, motorcycle and cruise ship to their holiday weekend destinations," AAA President and CEO Robert L. Darbelnet said in a news release.

BARBEQUE INSTEAD

A big factor for many will be fuel prices, which are 33 percent higher than last year at around $3.70 a gallon.

Nancy Corral of Los Angeles, California, who usually drives down to a beach house in Ensenada, Mexico, with a group of her girlfriends will have a Labor Day barbeque instead.

"Nobody has enough gas money to fill up the truck, so we're not going anymore," said 24-year-old Corral, who teaches seventh-grade English. "It's too expensive, there's not enough money to rent a house like we normally do."

Brett Stoll, a 26-year-old insurance adjuster from Cincinnati, plans to attend a baseball game, watch fireworks and barbeque while keeping Labor Day travel to a minimum.

"Some of my buddies couldn't afford it this year. It just costs too much," said Stoll.

Among the reasons for an expected big decline in air travel are fares that have climbed about 15 percent higher than last year and fees for checked baggage and other services that were previously complimentary, AAA noted.

"Economic uncertainty and the heavy hit from sky-high energy prices mean that many vacation and business travelers are choosing to stay closer to home -- if they go at all," said James C. May, President and CEO of Air Transport Association of America, a trade organization representing several leading U.S. airlines.

But not everyone is deterred by rising costs.

This summer's driving season has actually seen increased travel by people living in and around New York city, spokesman Robert Sinclair of the Automobile Club of New York said earlier this week, before AAA's national survey was released.

"New Yorkers have been bucking the trend that we've seen in the rest of the country," Sinclair said. "New Yorkers want to hit the road.."

(Additional reporting by Andrea Hopkins in Cincinnati and Jennifer Martinez in Los Angeles; Editing by Eddie Evans)
 

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Already skipped since last year. I can't afford to drive all the way from Des Moines to Dallas to visit my niece 3 times a year anymore (July 4, Labor Day, Thanksgiving). I can only visit her on Thanksgiving...
 

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I don't see any deflation.....

True Deflation is a decrease in the money supply, but I'll play along with the Keyseisans for a second:nohead:

So what prices are decreasing to make these suggestions?

Certainly not any of the items one needs on a regular basis. Even things one does not need. I own a swimming pool repair company and we are getting supplier increases from 5-10% EVERY THREE MONTHS NOW.

Unprecidented price increases - smells of hyperinflation if anything

Stock Market, Houses, Flat Screens,SUV's Yes. but that is three out of many many many more that are rising astronomically.,

Thats not deflation:ohno:
 

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Silvercorp just raised their annual dividend by 60%, in addition to buying back 2 millions shares.

Also, they are working on a NYSE listing that may come as early as SEPT, when the yearly dividend is paid

Once we get these paper markets, I.E. the Comex and GLD to show the true current value of silver, the one that you find at your local dealer or on ebay, which is $16.00.......buckle up.

Silvercorp is the lowest cost producer on the planet
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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True Deflation is a decrease in the money supply, but I'll play along with the Keyseisans for a second:nohead:

So what prices are decreasing to make these suggestions?

Certainly not any of the items one needs on a regular basis. Even things one does not need. I own a swimming pool repair company and we are getting supplier increases from 5-10% EVERY THREE MONTHS NOW.

Unprecidented price increases - smells of hyperinflation if anything

Stock Market, Houses, Flat Screens,SUV's Yes. but that is three out of many many many more that are rising astronomically.,

Thats not deflation:ohno:

your looking at the past dude i'm talking forward

everybody is now peaking out at passing the peak inflation in raw commodities to the consumer right now....the markets lag the commodity markets....

we'll see if oil, corn, copper, you name it....stay down from the highs for a while going foward with the gloom and doom

eventually they will be forced even into the necessities to cut due to continued erosion of demand

one thing helping inflation too is chinese wage inflation that's why you saw the big core PPI number last month china having to pass along higher prices in the shit you don't need category

bad news as that gonna crimp margins when they trying to pass along higher prices to the dead consumer

i'm on the fence on how it all goes

but hyperinflation for now seems highly unlikely.....flat prices, slightly higher prices, lower prices in the necessities...whatever the outcome i think equity markets scroomed

still think "BS" (which takes everything into account from homes to a loaf of bread) CPI/PPI numbers will go negative at some point

now after there is a clear bottom in the "credit crunch" that's when a potential hyperinflationary scenerio could pop up if the sheep go back to spending beyond their means and the fed isn't on top of it raising rates....
 

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your looking at the past dude i'm talking forward

everybody is now peaking

LMFAO

10 months ago you were saying the same shit, and what happened?

Now, after being badly embarrassed, you are saying in essence...OK OK OK I was wrong, but the shit is all off by 50% in the last month after doubling in the last twelve......ah ha! deflation:missingte. NOW I will be correct.

WOW
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i was talking about raw commodities

i never said negative cpi/ppi shit till recently that shit lags

i'm usually early

i'll be honest i thought the end of the equity markets was back in early 2007 i was a little early on that too

chances are i'll flip to equity bull to early too :)

we'll see if that was the peak in commodities for several years

and like i've said i'm not confident in my calls in that arena anyway

i'm a huge devil's advocate so i just like butting heads

lower equities is the name of the game....commodity markets too confusing a picture right now to deal with

although i like gold down here as inflation or deflation i like its value in a doom and gloom environment
 

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anything can happen short term. Ther is one clear bull market since 01 and that is commodoties..........just look at any chart

Americans are the joke of the planet

trade trade trade. Gotta catch that bottom. Thats all well and good, but why the fuck try to pick a bottom in RE or Financials when they are in a long term bear market..............why not try to pick a bottom in something in the bull market?

Commodity supercycles last an average 18 years, and we are not even half ways through this one. There are periods when they correct, and they can last for 1-2 years. They are buying oppt's. The Bull is intact
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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long term view this is how i see things

i think commodities are in a secular bull started in 2001 but is about to go through a cyclical bear

commodities had a great run a few years of negative doesn't change the long term prospects

while equity markets i believe started a secular bear in 2000 and is now exiting a cyclical bull
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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actually i should correct that

US!! equity markets are in a secular bear

the secular shit last about 15 years on average and has cyclical runs in the middle

rest of the world catching up (although they gonna go down the tubes near term with us) thus the reason commodities are in a long term secular bull (rest of the world producing more shit) and since us so dependent on import of resources specifically oil that hurts us

that's assuming a global depression isn't coming LOL
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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so we are halfway there and if you take the dow in nominal terms its much lower than it was in 2000

obviously inflation over the long haul helping equity markets stay afloat better

just read your 18 year super cycle

that's where i think we are now on commodity front the 1 or 2 years of pullback....why hold on

they've gone up 6 straight years....and doom and gloom is obviously gonna hamper demand on the near term

that's my point

that said if we got big banks failing left and right at some point....than all bets are off....and the above is irrelevant.....

bottom line though super doom and gloom or not equities going lower for a while....2009 i expect the fireworks to really get going.....and i'm guessing consumed commodities minus maybe gold are too
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Thats all well and good, but why the fuck try to pick a bottom in RE or Financials when they are in a long term bear market..............

they aren't in a long term bear market

they will bottom the fastest and first IMO

since they are the epicenter of this current mess

i mean look at these financial charts just amazing shit

the overall market on the other hand is....and all this shit will spill into all areas

plus bear moves typically don't last long especially when you got the fed inflators always in the background

your working against the fed all the time short.....if you could short the markets in nominal terms since 2000 you'd be up huge

in nominal terms we will be a in bear for a long time

its a tough fucking market reason i try to make calls

the buy and hold permabull days have been over since 2000
 

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Big wealth is created by buying early on in a bull market and holding

you guys can't see the forest thru the trees. Turn off the noise. it is generated for one purpose and that is to rob you

I've came across "your type" for the last several years, in person and on the PB board. To a tee almost, it is people who are young, missed out on any huge multi-bagger Keynesian gains, and want nothing more than to buy on the cheap and laugh at all the sheep who were talking shit for years

market does not give anybody what they desperately want

Gold is for people who have accumulated wealth, on the backs of the Keynesian Fraud, and wish to merley protect it from the fall-out
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i have gold and will add more along the way don't worry

bottom line is i think the funny money debt games that were created during this past cyclical bull could cause a systemic nightmare

that's why i'm so focused on the short side and in that situation cash is king unless people lose faith in fiat like it was during the last global depression in the 30s

the fed inflators took it a bit too far to try to drag us outta the depths of the tech bubble

on top of bush waging wars funded by foreigners (back in the day we funded our own war debt), cutting taxes while spending snowballed, rising deficit to 10 trillion, entitlement system nightmare going forward with baby boomers retiring, and negative savings rate (we have no savings for a rainy day)
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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last time americans had a negative savings rate was in the 30s when we were ALREADY in a great depression
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Gold is for people who have accumulated wealth, on the backs of the Keynesian Fraud, and wish to merley protect it from the fall-out

shorts that pilled in prior to great depression made out like bandits :103631605

we'll see how ugly it gets.....

i just don't think you take how bad this whole thing could be seriously

maybe gold goes ballistic with it too...but i know oil and other commodities did shitty last time depression came

we'll see
 

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Guys do any of you Read Jim Sinclair(gold bug) if so what do you think of him??


I mostly read Richard Maybury(guy has been so dead on its scary)....Wish I only did more of what he said....and Richard Young(very solid)
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i used to back in my early gold bug days

he's right up jdog's alley

i read a little bit of everybody

and everybody has their biases

everybody calls me tizgloom but that's just cause the times call for it

tizbull will rise one day
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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man i looked up this maybury dude

chaostan lmao

he's tizgloom but as war strategist and how it affects investments it looks like at first glance

good luck predicting chaos dude.....you have the right name though....
 

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