IMO, Phils under is easy money. With the news that Ryan Howard developed an infection in his Achilles tendon is not good news. The Phils expected or hoped he would be back by early May, not gonna happen. Howard missing from the lineup changes how pitchers will pitch to this team. They also loose any power they had. This team does not move runners well at all. They don't bunt runners over. They just don't manufacture runs over a consistent basis. Missing Howard for two plus months will hurt.
The mets are gonna be better then people think. now i still think its very realistic for us to finish last, its also possible for us to contend. Ike davis is probably the 2nd best 1B in the NL with howard missing time.
Before Ike was hurt in 129 abs he had 20 runs, 7 hrs, 25 rbis, hit .302
times x4 making his abs 519(close to what he should have this year) his sts would have been 80 runs, 28 hrs, 100 rbis, and .302
now factor in the fences have been moved in 8 feet and the some of the walls lowered from 15 ft to 8 ft
i really think our line up will be decent. Torres leading off kinda sucks cant argue that. murphy hittin 2nd is perfect hes a .300 contact hitter who should get on base and move torress into scoring position pretty easily. then wright, davis, duda i have high expectations for. i truly think duda is like last years morse. a possible 30 hrs 300 average isnt out of the question although 25 hrs and 280 is closer to expected. There are reports that Bay is going back to his old swing and feels good about it. the past 2 years hes tried to change it up and it hasnt worked. if he contributes in anyway itll be huge. now thole and tejada are alittle shakey towards the bottom but showed alittle promise last year. obviously like most NL teams 7 and 8 hitters arent that great...
now to the SP's...Johan is back and i have no clue what to expect. i wanna see him pitch in spring training before i draw a conclusion but if he can come back and be close to as effective as he once was (maybe 15 wins, 3.5 era, 175 k's?) probably alittle on the high end he could come back and be great or a complete dud.
RA. Dickey has been surprising the last 2 years. as solid of a sp as weve had. which isnt saying much, but i think u can expect eras in the mid 3's again.
Johnathon Niese- theres a story on espn about how he pitched better then his stats showed and watching the games id agree. the kid will never be a cy young or anything but a solid #2-3 pitcher who can be pretty good
Mike pelfrey- ok...im not big on him. he had a 4.7 era and the year before a 3.6. the kid has some potential and eats innings but hes so inconsistent that ive almost given up on him.
Dillon Gee- has some potential but very inconsistent.
now the pitching staff is certainly cause for concern. theres a lot of questions problems but we have 2-3 sp prospects who are almost major league ready. they should compete for rotation spots this season and they will def becalled up at some point. i think some of these kids could be pretty solid in the 2nd half...i mean can they be worse then pelfreys 4.7 era lol
bullpen- this was one of our biggest problems last year. we had the 3rd worst bullpen in MLB in terms of ERA. weve added Frank francisco and jon rauch from toronto, as any bluejay fan will tell u those two were a rough duo to watch but both suffered through injuries last year and francisco has some decent stuff. we also added a RP from SF who was solid. a 2.62 ear with 66 k'sin 68 innings and a 1.17 whip. weve tried to address this problem and i believe well go from one of the worst bullpens in the majors to a decent one(not a huge step but maybe 15th in era instead of 29th)
if you read all that youll see im pretty realistic about the mets this year. im in no way lobbying that their gonna take this division etc but i do believe their a better team then people think and they have the upside to finish 2nd (if all falls into place, johan back to ace, ike all star, duda last years morse, wright and bay bounce backs etc) thats alot to happen but every other team in the division has huge questions too. certainly last place isnt out of the question and i myself think they probably do finish in 4th....
just a few other thoughts on the NL east... phillies are solid but they lost some bullpen depth, howard will miss some time and his stats have decreased every year. what can u expect from utley? rollins is getting older what are u gonna get from him? polanco? will worley repeat a great year? a few questions in philly
Atlanta- i really like atlanta actually but their offense relys on chipper who cant stay healthy and is gettin pretty old, heyward whos still a kid and off a terrible year. freeman again whos a young kid and needs time to develop, uggla who hits .240 but puts out 30 just not 100% sold on the middle of the lineup and hanson off injury makes me slightly nervous
marlins- can reyes stay healthy again? will hanly bounce back and not be a distraction? will JJ be healthy and a ace? will the rest of the rotation be any good(love annibal snachez after that eh)
nats- zimmerman bounce back? morse repeat? strasberg still alittle young to be the ace they need(but still a stud) harper a year away, adam larouche have anything to offer? (solid bp and and i absolutely love jordan zimmerman and gio gonzelez)
Before Ike was hurt in 129 abs he had 20 runs, 7 hrs, 25 rbis, hit .302
times x4 making his abs 519(close to what he should have this year) his sts would have been 80 runs, 28 hrs, 100 rbis, and .302
now factor in the fences have been moved in 8 feet and the some of the walls lowered from 15 ft to 8 ft
i really think our line up will be decent. Torres leading off kinda sucks cant argue that. murphy hittin 2nd is perfect hes a .300 contact hitter who should get on base and move torress into scoring position pretty easily. then wright, davis, duda i have high expectations for. i truly think duda is like last years morse. a possible 30 hrs 300 average isnt out of the question although 25 hrs and 280 is closer to expected. There are reports that Bay is going back to his old swing and feels good about it. the past 2 years hes tried to change it up and it hasnt worked. if he contributes in anyway itll be huge. now thole and tejada are alittle shakey towards the bottom but showed alittle promise last year. obviously like most NL teams 7 and 8 hitters arent that great...
now to the SP's...Johan is back and i have no clue what to expect. i wanna see him pitch in spring training before i draw a conclusion but if he can come back and be close to as effective as he once was (maybe 15 wins, 3.5 era, 175 k's?) probably alittle on the high end he could come back and be great or a complete dud.
RA. Dickey has been surprising the last 2 years. as solid of a sp as weve had. which isnt saying much, but i think u can expect eras in the mid 3's again.
Johnathon Niese- theres a story on espn about how he pitched better then his stats showed and watching the games id agree. the kid will never be a cy young or anything but a solid #2-3 pitcher who can be pretty good
Mike pelfrey- ok...im not big on him. he had a 4.7 era and the year before a 3.6. the kid has some potential and eats innings but hes so inconsistent that ive almost given up on him.
Dillon Gee- has some potential but very inconsistent.
now the pitching staff is certainly cause for concern. theres a lot of questions problems but we have 2-3 sp prospects who are almost major league ready. they should compete for rotation spots this season and they will def becalled up at some point. i think some of these kids could be pretty solid in the 2nd half...i mean can they be worse then pelfreys 4.7 era lol
bullpen- this was one of our biggest problems last year. we had the 3rd worst bullpen in MLB in terms of ERA. weve added Frank francisco and jon rauch from toronto, as any bluejay fan will tell u those two were a rough duo to watch but both suffered through injuries last year and francisco has some decent stuff. we also added a RP from SF who was solid. a 2.62 ear with 66 k'sin 68 innings and a 1.17 whip. weve tried to address this problem and i believe well go from one of the worst bullpens in the majors to a decent one(not a huge step but maybe 15th in era instead of 29th)
if you read all that youll see im pretty realistic about the mets this year. im in no way lobbying that their gonna take this division etc but i do believe their a better team then people think and they have the upside to finish 2nd (if all falls into place, johan back to ace, ike all star, duda last years morse, wright and bay bounce backs etc) thats alot to happen but every other team in the division has huge questions too. certainly last place isnt out of the question and i myself think they probably do finish in 4th....
just a few other thoughts on the NL east... phillies are solid but they lost some bullpen depth, howard will miss some time and his stats have decreased every year. what can u expect from utley? rollins is getting older what are u gonna get from him? polanco? will worley repeat a great year? a few questions in philly
Atlanta- i really like atlanta actually but their offense relys on chipper who cant stay healthy and is gettin pretty old, heyward whos still a kid and off a terrible year. freeman again whos a young kid and needs time to develop, uggla who hits .240 but puts out 30 just not 100% sold on the middle of the lineup and hanson off injury makes me slightly nervous
marlins- can reyes stay healthy again? will hanly bounce back and not be a distraction? will JJ be healthy and a ace? will the rest of the rotation be any good(love annibal snachez after that eh)
nats- zimmerman bounce back? morse repeat? strasberg still alittle young to be the ace they need(but still a stud) harper a year away, adam larouche have anything to offer? (solid bp and and i absolutely love jordan zimmerman and gio gonzelez)
kinda liking the mets over 74.5 wins, they won 77 last year with a ton of injury problems. granted reyes won the batting title and wont be in the line up. just think they have a slightly better team then last year so their win total should increase by maybe a few games? maybe 79 wins give or take? biggest problem of course is every team in the division is a tough game.
on another note the brewers total im sure is higher then 82.5 now that braun is back but even if they move that to 88 or so i love it. not really sure how they dont win 90+. they picked up aramis ramirez to help with the fielder void, grienke was lights out in the 2nd half, gallardo is a stud #2, krod and axford as good a 1-2 in the bullpen youll find...wonder if anyone knows this total?
on another note the brewers total im sure is higher then 82.5 now that braun is back but even if they move that to 88 or so i love it. not really sure how they dont win 90+. they picked up aramis ramirez to help with the fielder void, grienke was lights out in the 2nd half, gallardo is a stud #2, krod and axford as good a 1-2 in the bullpen youll find...wonder if anyone knows this total?
hope my local puts these out asap i love the brew crew over. the cards lossing pujols was a bigger lose then fielder. they signed aramis to at least help fill the void. if ricki weeks stays healthy they should easily clear 84. i mean seriously braun, weeks, hart, aramis all good for 20 with potential of 30 + hrs. plenty of power left and i love their staff and pen. in a weak divison they should be pretty damn solid. fielder is really worth 12 games? even with aramis to take his spot?
Could I please get +5 games and the Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis this year??? St Louis lost the best player in baseball by far and don't think that won't have an affect on the St Louis line-up.
IF and it's a BIG IF the team total on the Brewers is only 82.5 load up the BIG BILL$ and pound the Brew Crew OVER 82.5 wins....This had to be made with the suspension of Ryan Braun a given. The Brew Crew have three solid starters in Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo and a very dominant closing crew. The loss of Fielder will hurt but Aramis Ramierez isn't a stiff and other pick-ups will only help, not only offensively but defensively as well. With an O/U of 82.5 they are basically saying Brew Crew is a .500 ball club( etc. 81-81)...I don't think so
PLAY OVER 82.5 WINS BREWERS!!!!!
Yours in Winners
BernieV
IF and it's a BIG IF the team total on the Brewers is only 82.5 load up the BIG BILL$ and pound the Brew Crew OVER 82.5 wins....This had to be made with the suspension of Ryan Braun a given. The Brew Crew have three solid starters in Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo and a very dominant closing crew. The loss of Fielder will hurt but Aramis Ramierez isn't a stiff and other pick-ups will only help, not only offensively but defensively as well. With an O/U of 82.5 they are basically saying Brew Crew is a .500 ball club( etc. 81-81)...I don't think so
PLAY OVER 82.5 WINS BREWERS!!!!!
Yours in Winners
BernieV
