Joe Gavazzi
W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week
Nebraska (+2-) vs. Michigan State 12:00 PM ET
Looks like an easy lay for Bowl qualifier Michigan State at 6-4 SU vs. a 3-7 SU Nebraska team who could easily have “Tossed the Towel”. Current form, however, suggests otherwise and that this is a game in which it is the W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored). The Michigan State rush defense has been solely responsible for the Spartans success. Clearly they have the better stop unit in this game by 17 points, 133 yards and 1.4 YPPL. The offense, however, has gone AWOL. That inability has, in no small part, been a function of QB Lewerke, who has completed just 37% of his passes with a 0/2 ratio in his L2G. Credit to Nebraska 1st year HC Frost for keeping the train on the tracks after an 0-6 SU start. The wheels could clearly have come off. Since that 0-4 ATS beginning, however, Nebraska has covered 5 straight vs. FBS opponents. Their offense has really clicked on this field where a balanced and explosive “200 Club” attack is averaging 38/541. Key to the success of this play is the fact we have a better “YPPL Dog” (30-14 ATS) making the W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored).
W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week
Nebraska (+2-) vs. Michigan State 12:00 PM ET
Looks like an easy lay for Bowl qualifier Michigan State at 6-4 SU vs. a 3-7 SU Nebraska team who could easily have “Tossed the Towel”. Current form, however, suggests otherwise and that this is a game in which it is the W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored). The Michigan State rush defense has been solely responsible for the Spartans success. Clearly they have the better stop unit in this game by 17 points, 133 yards and 1.4 YPPL. The offense, however, has gone AWOL. That inability has, in no small part, been a function of QB Lewerke, who has completed just 37% of his passes with a 0/2 ratio in his L2G. Credit to Nebraska 1st year HC Frost for keeping the train on the tracks after an 0-6 SU start. The wheels could clearly have come off. Since that 0-4 ATS beginning, however, Nebraska has covered 5 straight vs. FBS opponents. Their offense has really clicked on this field where a balanced and explosive “200 Club” attack is averaging 38/541. Key to the success of this play is the fact we have a better “YPPL Dog” (30-14 ATS) making the W.T.F. (Wrong Team Favored).
Ben Burns
3* San Jose st / Nevada under
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total. The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to ju…st 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the under Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday.
3* San Jose st / Nevada under
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total. The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to ju…st 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the under Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday.
