Saturday Service Plays 11/17/18

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Marc Lawrence

CFB - 3* Game 325 - Wisconsin (+4)
Edges - Badgers: 12-0 SU in this series; 5-0 ATS away with a win percentage of .600 or more when coming off an off an away game; and 5-1-1 ATS as road dogs of 7 or less points; and 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS away under Paul Chryst … Boilermakers: 7-18 SU and 7-17-1 in Last Home Games versus .400 or greater opponents, including 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS against those same foes coming off a double-digit loss … We cement the call with this from our Perfect System club as it tells us to: PLAY ON any college conference dog in Game 11 of the season of they were a bowl team last year and are coming off a SU ATS conference loss of 7 or more points and are facing an opponent off a SU loss as a favorite of -5 or more points in which they scored 30 or fewer points. That's because these dogs are 14-0 ATS in this role since 1980. With that we recommend a strong 3* play on Wisconsin. Thank you and good luck as always.
CFB - 3* Game 353 - Cincinnati (+7.5)
Edges - Bearcats: Head coach Luke Fickell 9-2-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points, including 6-0-1 ATS with a .500 or greater record … Knights: 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS at home versus .800 or greater opponents … Furthermore, the Bearcats only loss this season came in overtime against Temple, and they are playing tonight with revenge while owning 145 YPG the better defense. This is where upsets occur. With that we recommend a strong 3* play on Cincinnati. Thank you and good luck as always.
 

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Northcoast Newsletter Keys:

Power Plays:
4.5* Utah State, Marshall, Southern Miss, Fresno State
4* Syracuse, Vanderbilt,SMU
3* Arkansas State, Ga. Southern, California
2* Pitt, Cincinnati

Power Sweep:
4* West Virginia
3* So. Cal, Kentucky
2* Cincinnati, Nebraska

Underdog Play of the Week:
Wisconsin +6.5 Purdue
 

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Anyone have Essler’s NBA play for Saturday. Thanks

Essler 3* AAC GOY CINCY +7.5
Analysis:
Here's the thing - there's all this talk about UCF and a CFB playoff snub as a non Power 5 conference, but if they don't win THIS game they won't even win the AAC. First, revenge. Last year Cincinnati lost this game 51-23 at home, and it wasn't even THAT close. It was rain-shortened, and U¨CF scored on all eight possessions, seven of them touchdowns. When people think UCF they think Milton and offense, but it's the Bearcats defense that's #2 in the nation in opponents completion percentage AND 14th in opponents yards per rush. On the other side, it's UCF's defense that's 101st in the nation, allowing 213 rushing yards per game. As fate would have it, Cincinnati can run the ball - they're averaging 213 yards per game on the ground. UCF's defense, quite frankly, can suck. They let Temple hang 40 on them whereas UC only allowed Temple 17 in regulation. UCF let Navy rush for 374 yards last week, and the odd thing about that is they of course knew what Navy was going to do and STILL couldn't stop it. In the end, Cincinnati hasn't lost by more than 7 this season and they're not going to here - and an outright Bearcat win would not surprise me.
 

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Mike Tierney
Indiana 28, Umass 41, Oregon St 33.5, UCF -7, USC -3, Texas Texh -6.5 Af/Wyoming Under 41.5
Sdgst + 13.5, Colorado St 28.5, Hawaii- 6.5
 

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The Rainman Memphis

10 star: Central Fl
5 star: Navy; Pittsburgh
1 star: temple; Baylor

Ncaab
1 star: Charlotte; St. Louis
 

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VAUGHN WILSON
Your Pick: Georgia -41 (-113)
Your Pick: UL Monroe +8 (-110)
Your Pick: Ohio St / Maryland Over 57.5 (-110)
 

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Any Norm Hitzges ?

Picks of the Pole
DOUBLES:
Cuse +10 1/2 ND
W. Va -5 Ok St
SINGLES
Minn -2 NWestern
Duke +28 1/2 Clem
Temp -13 1/2 SoFL
Tenn +6 Missou
Cincy +7 UCF
Utah St -28 Col St
Marsh l -28 UTSA
Baylor -2 TCUSo.
Miss +1 La. Tech
Vandy -2 1/2 Miss
BC--FSU UNDER 49
ULa La -17 1/2 So. Al
 

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ESPN+ College Football Best Bets
Stanford Steve Coughlin 37-15-1 ATS (last week: 2-2)


No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Maryland Terrapins (O/U 58.5)
12 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)


Coughlin: The Ohio State offense wasn't pretty last week, but I liked what I saw from the Buckeyes in short-yardage situations when they inserted Tate Martell at QB, giving them a running presence from the QB position. Maryland comes in off a brutal loss in Bloomington in which the Terrapins lost QB Kasim Hill for the year and saw their chances at a bowl dwindle; they play Ohio State and Penn State to close the season.


Maryland was severely limited on the offensive side of the ball and really focused on its run game, and you can only imagine that the Terrapins will try to do the same this week with a backup QB under center. The problem is the Ohio State defense was great against the run last week, and on the other side of the ball, the team has superior talent at the skill positions on offense. I don't see the Buckeyes looking ahead to Michigan. I'll take the road team and give the points.


ATS pick: Ohio State -14
Score: Ohio State 38, Maryland 15


********
Pittsburgh Panthers (-7) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (O/U 61)
12 p.m. ET Saturday (ACC Network)


Coughlin: There's plenty for these two teams to play for. Wake Forest looks to go to a bowl game for the third straight season, which has been done only once in school history, while the Panthers come in knowing that a win clinches a spot in the ACC title game. It's crazy to think that Pitt could be the sixth team to represent the ACC Coastal Division in that game in the past six years.


I liked what I saw from the Demon Deacons last week, as they came from behind on the road against a nationally ranked team in NC State. The question is whether the Pitt run game will dominate the Deacs' defense. The Panthers are second in the ACC, averaging more than 259 yards on the ground per contest, and they will go against a defense that has not been good all season. But it is noteworthy that Wake Forest held NC State to 47 rushing yards last week. I'll take the home team and the points to cover.


ATS pick: Wake Forest +7
Score: Pitt 31, Wake Forest 30


********
Stanford Cardinal (-2) at California Golden Bears (O/U 45)
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday


Coughlin: This one just doesn't feel right. Cal has overcome a lot this year, most recently coming back to beat USC on the road last week to become bowl-eligible. But when I look back, the last time these two rivals came into the "Big Game" with the same record, Cal came out victorious in Palo Alto as a pretty big favorite. From my perspective, it might be the most painful loss of the Jim Harbaugh/David Shaw era on The Farm.


Stanford has won every meeting since, but you have to remember that Cal equaled its longest win streak in the series with five straight victories from 2002 to '06 and won seven of eight from 2002 to '09. The Bears have done whatever they needed to do on offense to get wins this season, and they even beat Washington without scoring an offensive TD. I think the home team covers.


ATS pick: Cal +2
Score: Stanford 21, Cal 20


********
Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks (-3.5; O/U 64)
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday


Coughlin: This line stuck out to me immediately when I saw them come out, and I think it's because of the home team more than the visiting team. Oregon, as we all know, is a great team in recent history at home, and to see them giving only 3.5 points caught my attention. Plenty of people took shots at Herm Edwards before the season, but as we sit here before Week 12, if the Sun Devils win in Eugene and against Arizona in Tucson, they will play in the Pac-12 Title game.


To me, this week is a little too daunting for the guys from Tempe, as they will be without Merlin Robertson for the first half after he was ejected for targeting in the second half against UCLA last week. I'm just not confident in that offense on the road, in an environment such as Autzen Stadium. Plus, I figure the Ducks' offense will come out fast and try to get QB Justin Herbert going, as he has been average of late and hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards since the first loss of the season against Stanford. I like the home team, and I'll give the points.


ATS pick: Oregon -3.5
Score: Oregon 39, Arizona State 27


********
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen (-5.5; O/U 52.5)
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday


Coughlin: Tulsa hasn't won a road game all season.
Navy hasn't won a game since Sept. 22.
Four of Tulsa's eight losses are by single digits.
I'll take Navy and say it wins by more than five.


ATS pick: Navy -5.5
Score: Navy 31, Tulsa 23
 

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Dusty Dvoracek - ESPN Analyst & WWLS Sports Animal Host - OKC radio show so they always pick the OU & OSU games, Lines were as of 1:00 p.m Thursday
38-17 YTD, 13-2 last three weeks
- Lock of The Week
Iowa St. +2.5
- OU -36
- OSU +4.5
- Cal +2
- NU +1.5
 

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Dean 615
26-18-2 On the season

Baylor -2
Nebraska +2.5
West Virginia -4.5
Purdue -4.5
Ole Miss +3
 

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Will Cain on ESPN Radio Show
#5 Baylor PK
#4 New Orleans Saints -8
#3 Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
#2 Syracuse +10.5
#1 Minnesota Vikings +2.5


Doug Kezerian - Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5
** Previously undefeated when releasing on Cain's show until last week
 

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