DWAYNE BRYANT
SATURDAY, November 3, 2018
College Football -- Noon ET
[395] Oklahoma State at [396] Baylor
PLAY: [396] BAYLOR +6 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%
Huge look-ahead/letdown/flat spot for the visiting Cowboys. Okie State is off an upset win over Texas and they have the huge Bedlam showdown with arch-rival Oklahoma on deck. Baylor is off a blowout loss to West Virginia, and the Bears are 2-0 SU off a double-digit loss this season. Baylor is also 6-2 ATS in its last 8 as a home dog.
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College Football -- 3:45 PM ET
[345] Boston College at [346] Virginia Tech
PLAY: [345] Boston College -2 (-106)
BET SIZE: 4%
Long gone are the days of Frank Beamer and a Hokies team that dominated with defense and special teams. These Hokies are rebuilding, and the defense is young and depleted. BC has lost three straight to VT, but this is the Eagles' time to break through. BC has a veteran offensive line and a very talented RB (AJ Dillon) that can control the line of scrimmage. Control the line of scrimmage (and the clock), control the game.
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College Football -- 4 PM ET
[391] Charlotte at [392] Tennessee
PLAY: UNDER 47.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
My football totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 41
4% play at 45.5 or higher
3% play at 44 to 45
No play below 44
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#405 Penn St at #406 Michigan 3:45 PM ET
The Play: 1% on #406 Michigan -12 (+104)
This is one of those games where the average bettor sees two big-name programs, a double-digit spread, and can't grab the points with the big-name dog fast enough. After all, Penn State was in the playoff picture last season and again earlier this season.
Michigan has had this game circled since the schedule was announced, given that they were embarrassed in primetime 42-13 last season in Happy Valley. The season prior, it was Michigan rolling here at home, 49-10. Now the scene shifts back to the Big House in Ann Arbor, and Big Blue is the better team with tons of motivation.
Michigan's defense is #1 in the nation, holding teams to a whopping 218 yards below their season average. That is just crazy. Crazy good, that is.
The Wolverines' lone loss was the season opener in South Bend against an Irish bunch that are in the thick of the playoff picture. Michigan is also coming off a bye week, so they've had extra rest and prep time for this matchup.
Penn State's wins this season have come against weaker foes. When they played solid competition, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State, and probably should've lost to Iowa at home last weekend.
Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 as home chalk, while Penn State is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 as road dogs against Top 10 teams.
If it looks like too many points to lay, it's probably not nearly enough. Such is the case here. Lay it with MICHIGAN.
SATURDAY, November 3, 2018
College Football -- Noon ET
[395] Oklahoma State at [396] Baylor
PLAY: [396] BAYLOR +6 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%
Huge look-ahead/letdown/flat spot for the visiting Cowboys. Okie State is off an upset win over Texas and they have the huge Bedlam showdown with arch-rival Oklahoma on deck. Baylor is off a blowout loss to West Virginia, and the Bears are 2-0 SU off a double-digit loss this season. Baylor is also 6-2 ATS in its last 8 as a home dog.
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College Football -- 3:45 PM ET
[345] Boston College at [346] Virginia Tech
PLAY: [345] Boston College -2 (-106)
BET SIZE: 4%
Long gone are the days of Frank Beamer and a Hokies team that dominated with defense and special teams. These Hokies are rebuilding, and the defense is young and depleted. BC has lost three straight to VT, but this is the Eagles' time to break through. BC has a veteran offensive line and a very talented RB (AJ Dillon) that can control the line of scrimmage. Control the line of scrimmage (and the clock), control the game.
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College Football -- 4 PM ET
[391] Charlotte at [392] Tennessee
PLAY: UNDER 47.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
My football totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 41
4% play at 45.5 or higher
3% play at 44 to 45
No play below 44
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#405 Penn St at #406 Michigan 3:45 PM ET
The Play: 1% on #406 Michigan -12 (+104)
This is one of those games where the average bettor sees two big-name programs, a double-digit spread, and can't grab the points with the big-name dog fast enough. After all, Penn State was in the playoff picture last season and again earlier this season.
Michigan has had this game circled since the schedule was announced, given that they were embarrassed in primetime 42-13 last season in Happy Valley. The season prior, it was Michigan rolling here at home, 49-10. Now the scene shifts back to the Big House in Ann Arbor, and Big Blue is the better team with tons of motivation.
Michigan's defense is #1 in the nation, holding teams to a whopping 218 yards below their season average. That is just crazy. Crazy good, that is.
The Wolverines' lone loss was the season opener in South Bend against an Irish bunch that are in the thick of the playoff picture. Michigan is also coming off a bye week, so they've had extra rest and prep time for this matchup.
Penn State's wins this season have come against weaker foes. When they played solid competition, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State, and probably should've lost to Iowa at home last weekend.
Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 as home chalk, while Penn State is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 as road dogs against Top 10 teams.
If it looks like too many points to lay, it's probably not nearly enough. Such is the case here. Lay it with MICHIGAN.
