Jason Sharpe
5 Unit Play Take #353 Colorado +4 over Nebraska (3:30pm est):
The Colorado Buffaloes very quietly put on one of the best displays in the country last week as they thrashed rival Colorado State 45-13 in an awesome team performance on both sides of the football. A lot went wrong for the Buffaloes last season which was just one year after they posted a surprising 10-4 record overall. CU has an experienced starting quarterback in Steve Montez who's 16 career starts under his belt. Montez was nearly perfect last week going 22 of 25 for 338 yards in the win. The other side in this one has a true freshman quarterback going for them in this contest. Nebraska also will have to deal with first game nerves in this one as their season opener last week was cancelled due to bad weather. The Cornhuskers will make some noise under new head coach Scott Frost in the future but I don't think that will happen until later on down the road. The wrong team is favored in this one according to my numbers. Take Colorado plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #355 Louisiana Monroe +5.5 over Southern Mississippi (7:00pm est):
ULM struggled a bit last week at home against Southeastern Louisiana but that was to be expected as SELA is a solid FCS program and one who has a legit D-1 quarterback running their team this year. Speaking of good quarterback play, ULM has that with returning starter Caleb Evans back again this season. Evans is a big time QB for this level of play which is huge and gives the Warhawks a chance every time they plays a team of similar ability like they do here in this game. USM is without last year's starting quarterback in this one as he's currently suspended and his loss is huge for an already thin team hit hard with losses. The Golden Eagles had an easy week one win but they also played a weaker than average FCS squad in their opener. USM is missing a ton of guys this year and I think they've taken a big step backwards overall. Take Louisiana Monroe plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #342 East Carolina +17 over North Carolina (3:30pm est):
There's lots of hidden information in the box score for East Carolina in their week one home loss to North Carolina A&T and most of it shows that ECU completely outplayed NC A&T in the game but they shot themselves in the foot time after time The Pirates got down to the 2-yard line twice in the game only to turn the football over both times, once resulting in a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown for their opponent. Two other times ECU had to settle for short field goals while in inside their opponents 5 -yard line. Added all up and incredibly they scored just 6 points overall on those four different possessions that went inside the other team's 5-yard line. This is year number three for ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery so things are in place and you should see better performances going forward from this squad. North Carolina A&T beat a very good Jacksonville State team the week before playing ECU (ranked #6 in FCS) and that speaks volumes about how good NC A&T is this year. North Carolina was down 24-3 in the middle of the 4th quarter their last week at California but managed to score two late touchdowns to lose by a respectable 24-17 score in the game. The Tar Heels offense struggled all game and it's going to be difficult here for them to cover this kind of margin. Take East Carolina plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #321 Duke +3 over Northwestern (12:00pm est):
I felt coming into the year this Northwestern team was a fraud last year going 10-3 overall and caught a ton of breaks along the way. The Wildcats took advantage of a +4 turnover margin last week in their season opener to win a close one on the road in Purdue in a game that I feel they were outplayed. This might be Duke head coach David Cutcliffe's best team yet this year as the Blue Devils bring back a ton of guys from last year's squad. This is the role that Cutcliffe excels in as his team has went 12-2 against the spread the last 14 times as an underdog of +4 or lower going 10-4 straight-up as well. They hammered Northwestern last season in this matchup winning by a 41-17 score in that game. Take Duke plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #324 Kansas State +8 over Mississippi State (12:00pm est):
We are getting lots of extra line value here in this one and that's because of Kansas State's narrow three point win last week over FCS foe South Dakota. The Wildcats were -4 in turnovers for the game and add that in with their 13 penalties and it's actually pretty impressive that KSU was able to overcome all of that and still get the victory. Don't disregard South Dakota either as the Coyotes would be one of the better teams a conference like the Sun Belt, MAC and C-USA this season. There's no doubt last week was a very uncharacteristic showing for a Bill Snyder coached football team but you don't want to place too much stock in the performance as Kansas State is one of the most consistent teams in the country year after year. Snyder is one of the best head coaches in college football and especially in this role here as the Wildcats have went 9-3 as a home underdog since 2011 and he'll face off against a rookie head coach in Joe Moorhead in this game. One thing that makes KSU such an under the radar team is how well they play special teams and we seen an example of that again last week as they went 4 for 4 in field goal attempts and also returned a punt for a touchdown in the game. Keep in mind last year the Wildcats were ranked #1 in special teams play at Football Outsiders FEI report. Take Kansas State plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #338 UNLV -23.5 over UTEP (9:00pm est):
UTEP is a total mess right now as they went 0-12 last year and have a 1st year head coach this season. They were hammered in their season losing by 20 points to an FCS team while playing at home. UNLV went toe to toe with mighty USC for most of the game in their season opener last week. Some might think the Rebels kept things close because the Trojans were playing a true freshman quarterback and they were able to hang around because of that but the reality is UNLV was also moving the football on offense in the game rushing for over 7 yards per carry and 300 yards on the ground in the game. This is head coach Tony Sanchez best team so far at UNLV and they should be able to pick their score in this one. Take UNLV minus the points here.
5 Unit Play Take #353 Colorado +4 over Nebraska (3:30pm est):
The Colorado Buffaloes very quietly put on one of the best displays in the country last week as they thrashed rival Colorado State 45-13 in an awesome team performance on both sides of the football. A lot went wrong for the Buffaloes last season which was just one year after they posted a surprising 10-4 record overall. CU has an experienced starting quarterback in Steve Montez who's 16 career starts under his belt. Montez was nearly perfect last week going 22 of 25 for 338 yards in the win. The other side in this one has a true freshman quarterback going for them in this contest. Nebraska also will have to deal with first game nerves in this one as their season opener last week was cancelled due to bad weather. The Cornhuskers will make some noise under new head coach Scott Frost in the future but I don't think that will happen until later on down the road. The wrong team is favored in this one according to my numbers. Take Colorado plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #355 Louisiana Monroe +5.5 over Southern Mississippi (7:00pm est):
ULM struggled a bit last week at home against Southeastern Louisiana but that was to be expected as SELA is a solid FCS program and one who has a legit D-1 quarterback running their team this year. Speaking of good quarterback play, ULM has that with returning starter Caleb Evans back again this season. Evans is a big time QB for this level of play which is huge and gives the Warhawks a chance every time they plays a team of similar ability like they do here in this game. USM is without last year's starting quarterback in this one as he's currently suspended and his loss is huge for an already thin team hit hard with losses. The Golden Eagles had an easy week one win but they also played a weaker than average FCS squad in their opener. USM is missing a ton of guys this year and I think they've taken a big step backwards overall. Take Louisiana Monroe plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #342 East Carolina +17 over North Carolina (3:30pm est):
There's lots of hidden information in the box score for East Carolina in their week one home loss to North Carolina A&T and most of it shows that ECU completely outplayed NC A&T in the game but they shot themselves in the foot time after time The Pirates got down to the 2-yard line twice in the game only to turn the football over both times, once resulting in a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown for their opponent. Two other times ECU had to settle for short field goals while in inside their opponents 5 -yard line. Added all up and incredibly they scored just 6 points overall on those four different possessions that went inside the other team's 5-yard line. This is year number three for ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery so things are in place and you should see better performances going forward from this squad. North Carolina A&T beat a very good Jacksonville State team the week before playing ECU (ranked #6 in FCS) and that speaks volumes about how good NC A&T is this year. North Carolina was down 24-3 in the middle of the 4th quarter their last week at California but managed to score two late touchdowns to lose by a respectable 24-17 score in the game. The Tar Heels offense struggled all game and it's going to be difficult here for them to cover this kind of margin. Take East Carolina plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #321 Duke +3 over Northwestern (12:00pm est):
I felt coming into the year this Northwestern team was a fraud last year going 10-3 overall and caught a ton of breaks along the way. The Wildcats took advantage of a +4 turnover margin last week in their season opener to win a close one on the road in Purdue in a game that I feel they were outplayed. This might be Duke head coach David Cutcliffe's best team yet this year as the Blue Devils bring back a ton of guys from last year's squad. This is the role that Cutcliffe excels in as his team has went 12-2 against the spread the last 14 times as an underdog of +4 or lower going 10-4 straight-up as well. They hammered Northwestern last season in this matchup winning by a 41-17 score in that game. Take Duke plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #324 Kansas State +8 over Mississippi State (12:00pm est):
We are getting lots of extra line value here in this one and that's because of Kansas State's narrow three point win last week over FCS foe South Dakota. The Wildcats were -4 in turnovers for the game and add that in with their 13 penalties and it's actually pretty impressive that KSU was able to overcome all of that and still get the victory. Don't disregard South Dakota either as the Coyotes would be one of the better teams a conference like the Sun Belt, MAC and C-USA this season. There's no doubt last week was a very uncharacteristic showing for a Bill Snyder coached football team but you don't want to place too much stock in the performance as Kansas State is one of the most consistent teams in the country year after year. Snyder is one of the best head coaches in college football and especially in this role here as the Wildcats have went 9-3 as a home underdog since 2011 and he'll face off against a rookie head coach in Joe Moorhead in this game. One thing that makes KSU such an under the radar team is how well they play special teams and we seen an example of that again last week as they went 4 for 4 in field goal attempts and also returned a punt for a touchdown in the game. Keep in mind last year the Wildcats were ranked #1 in special teams play at Football Outsiders FEI report. Take Kansas State plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #338 UNLV -23.5 over UTEP (9:00pm est):
UTEP is a total mess right now as they went 0-12 last year and have a 1st year head coach this season. They were hammered in their season losing by 20 points to an FCS team while playing at home. UNLV went toe to toe with mighty USC for most of the game in their season opener last week. Some might think the Rebels kept things close because the Trojans were playing a true freshman quarterback and they were able to hang around because of that but the reality is UNLV was also moving the football on offense in the game rushing for over 7 yards per carry and 300 yards on the ground in the game. This is head coach Tony Sanchez best team so far at UNLV and they should be able to pick their score in this one. Take UNLV minus the points here.
Strike Point Sports
4-Unit Play. Take #307 Georgia Tech (-3) over South Florida (Noon, Saturday, September 8)
Both of these teams made quick work of their FCS opponents in week one of this season and now they get to see who has the stronger case for being underrated. The Bulls have finished in the top 25 the last two seasons with little fanfare and they produced some bigs wins along the way. Coach Charlie Strong is attempting to replace all everything Quentin Flowers and that will be no easy task offensively. They have question marks all over the field and playing a hard nosed team like the Jackets will answer those questions quickly. The rambling wreck were 5-6 last year but could have been much better if not for some sloppy play and too many turnovers. This season they have a loaded backfield with TaQuon Marshall with Benson and Mason behind him so expect a ton of misdirection and power plays. This will be a tough battle throughout but G tech has the experience and that will be the difference in a Yellow Jacket win.
3-Unit Play. Take #325 Arizona (+3.5) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, September 8)
Arizona has a new face on the sideline in Kevin Sumlin who took over for Rich Rodriguez after he was fired in January. Sumlin knows how to coach offense and he has a special weapon in Khalil Tate at his disposal which should be exciting for all Wildcat hopeful. They lost last week to BYU and should struggle early this season in finding their identity but a date with a Houston team is not all that intimidating. Sumlin knows Houston and they struggled against Rice last week which is not a great sign at all. This will be a high scoring entertaining game and the Wildcat offense should be able to keep up with the Cougars so take the points and Arizona but don't be shocked if Zona wins this one outright.
6-Unit Play. Take #348 South Carolina (+10) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 8)
The Gamecocks are ranked 24th in the nation and have an early season shot to prove they belong in the SEC powerhouse conversation. They pounded Coastal Carolina last week 45-14 and it wasn't that close. The Cocks had 557 yards of total offense and were up 45-0 then Will Muschamp called off the dogs. Jake Bentley will have to duplicate his performance under center from last week and the defense will have to be as good as they have been in a long time if they want to pull off the upset. South Carolina has a chance to make a statement and they will do just that by staying with the National Champion runners-up from last year. Georgia is as good as it gets in D1 and they will be ready to play but the Gamecocks will be in this one the whole way so take the points.
4-Unit Play. Take #307 Georgia Tech (-3) over South Florida (Noon, Saturday, September 8)
Both of these teams made quick work of their FCS opponents in week one of this season and now they get to see who has the stronger case for being underrated. The Bulls have finished in the top 25 the last two seasons with little fanfare and they produced some bigs wins along the way. Coach Charlie Strong is attempting to replace all everything Quentin Flowers and that will be no easy task offensively. They have question marks all over the field and playing a hard nosed team like the Jackets will answer those questions quickly. The rambling wreck were 5-6 last year but could have been much better if not for some sloppy play and too many turnovers. This season they have a loaded backfield with TaQuon Marshall with Benson and Mason behind him so expect a ton of misdirection and power plays. This will be a tough battle throughout but G tech has the experience and that will be the difference in a Yellow Jacket win.
3-Unit Play. Take #325 Arizona (+3.5) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, September 8)
Arizona has a new face on the sideline in Kevin Sumlin who took over for Rich Rodriguez after he was fired in January. Sumlin knows how to coach offense and he has a special weapon in Khalil Tate at his disposal which should be exciting for all Wildcat hopeful. They lost last week to BYU and should struggle early this season in finding their identity but a date with a Houston team is not all that intimidating. Sumlin knows Houston and they struggled against Rice last week which is not a great sign at all. This will be a high scoring entertaining game and the Wildcat offense should be able to keep up with the Cougars so take the points and Arizona but don't be shocked if Zona wins this one outright.
6-Unit Play. Take #348 South Carolina (+10) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 8)
The Gamecocks are ranked 24th in the nation and have an early season shot to prove they belong in the SEC powerhouse conversation. They pounded Coastal Carolina last week 45-14 and it wasn't that close. The Cocks had 557 yards of total offense and were up 45-0 then Will Muschamp called off the dogs. Jake Bentley will have to duplicate his performance under center from last week and the defense will have to be as good as they have been in a long time if they want to pull off the upset. South Carolina has a chance to make a statement and they will do just that by staying with the National Champion runners-up from last year. Georgia is as good as it gets in D1 and they will be ready to play but the Gamecocks will be in this one the whole way so take the points.
Allen East man
3-Unit Play. Take #325 Arizona (+3.5) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 8)
I will go with the underdog in this one. Arizona was upset in the first game against BYU. That spread was inflated. I used BYU as my free pick on the site last week and that was an easy win. But now I think that the books have overreacted the other way. Houston was not impressive against Rice. They pulled away and won 45-27. But they were losing 24-17 at halftime and losing 27-17 in the third quarter. Houston will get a tougher test from Arizona. The Wildcats will want revenge for a loss to the Cougars last September, 19-16. And new head coach Kevin Sumlin is going to want to get his first win at his new school. I think that Arizona will play better this week and they will get the outright win here. Take the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #347 Georgia (-10) over South Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
I like Georgia in this SEC matchup. The Bulldogs are massive favorites to win the SEC East. They are one of the best teams in college football and one of the favorites to get back to the national championship game. This team could be defending national champions if not for an OT loss to Alabama last year. Georgia had no problem in the opener with Austin Peay, winning 45-0 and covering the spread. They have one of the best offensive lines and one of the best running games in college football. Last week the Bulldogs ran for 284 yards on 8.6 yards per carry. South Carolina is a big underdog for a reason. Georgia is 17-5 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS in conference games. The Bulldogs are on a 5-1 ATS run overall and they won easily over South Carolina last year, 24-10. The Bulldogs have won three straight in this series and four of the last five. All of their wins have been blowouts. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in this series and I like Georgia to win big.
7-Unit Play. Take #368 Missouri (-18.5) over Wyoming (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
This game should be a blowout! Missouri has one of the best quarterbacks and one of the best offenses in the SEC. I think that they won't have a problem against an overmatched Wyoming team that is already playing its third game and its second road game. Wyoming was blown out 41-19 at home last week against Washington State, a weaker team from the Pac-12. Now they have to go on the road and take on this much better Missouri team and I can see another blowout similar to last week's three-touchdown loss. The Cowboys offense is really struggling with its rookie quarterback after losing Josh Allen to the NFL. This looks like an improved Missouri defense and they should be able to shut the freshman quarterback down. Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Wyoming is 2-5 ATS after a double-digit loss at home and they have had a problem bouncing back after blowout losses in the past. Wyoming is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine September games. The SEC dominated the rest of college football last week. I think that will continue this week in the nonconference games and I am looking for a blowout here from the Tigers and Drew Lock. This spread has already moved up from 16.5 to 18.0 and that tells me where the sharp money is on this game. Lay the points and go with Mizzou.
4-Unit Play. Take #379 Cincinnati (+1.5) over Miami, OH (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
The Bearcats scored a big upset last week at UCLA. They were 15-point underdogs in that game and won outright over the Bruins. They are on the road again this week but much closer to home. This is a rivalry game with nearby Miami for the Victory Bell. The wrong team is favored in this one. Miami is coming off a tough loss at home to Marshall last week. That game was not as close as the 35-21 score looked. Marshall was up 28-7 in the second half of this game and 35-21 before Miami scored a garbage time touchdown. This Cincinnati team is even better than Marshall and the Bearcats have beaten Miami 12 straight times. Cincinnati went on the road and beat Miami 21-17 last year as a 3.5-point underdog and they haven't had much of a problem with the Redhawks over the past several years. I like Cincinnati to get the job done here.
4-Unit Play. Take #382 Texas (-23) over Tulsa (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
Texas is coming off another disappointing loss to Maryland last week on the road. That was a strange game. That game included a long weather delay in the second half that took away Texas' momentum. But now the Longhorns are back home and they need a big win here. Tulsa struggled against Central Arkansas last week. They gave up 27 points and did not cover the spread in a 38-27 win. They are really going to struggle with an improved Texas team in this one. The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a loss. Tulsa is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and they are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against teams from the Big 12. Last year Texas lost its opener to Maryland and then turned around and beat San Jose State 56-0. I do not think that Texas will win that big this week against Tulsa. But I do think that they will get a blowout win. I had this spread at 29 so I think that there is some value here with this team. Look for the Longhorns to bounce back. Lay the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #325 Arizona (+3.5) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 8)
I will go with the underdog in this one. Arizona was upset in the first game against BYU. That spread was inflated. I used BYU as my free pick on the site last week and that was an easy win. But now I think that the books have overreacted the other way. Houston was not impressive against Rice. They pulled away and won 45-27. But they were losing 24-17 at halftime and losing 27-17 in the third quarter. Houston will get a tougher test from Arizona. The Wildcats will want revenge for a loss to the Cougars last September, 19-16. And new head coach Kevin Sumlin is going to want to get his first win at his new school. I think that Arizona will play better this week and they will get the outright win here. Take the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #347 Georgia (-10) over South Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
I like Georgia in this SEC matchup. The Bulldogs are massive favorites to win the SEC East. They are one of the best teams in college football and one of the favorites to get back to the national championship game. This team could be defending national champions if not for an OT loss to Alabama last year. Georgia had no problem in the opener with Austin Peay, winning 45-0 and covering the spread. They have one of the best offensive lines and one of the best running games in college football. Last week the Bulldogs ran for 284 yards on 8.6 yards per carry. South Carolina is a big underdog for a reason. Georgia is 17-5 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS in conference games. The Bulldogs are on a 5-1 ATS run overall and they won easily over South Carolina last year, 24-10. The Bulldogs have won three straight in this series and four of the last five. All of their wins have been blowouts. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in this series and I like Georgia to win big.
7-Unit Play. Take #368 Missouri (-18.5) over Wyoming (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
This game should be a blowout! Missouri has one of the best quarterbacks and one of the best offenses in the SEC. I think that they won't have a problem against an overmatched Wyoming team that is already playing its third game and its second road game. Wyoming was blown out 41-19 at home last week against Washington State, a weaker team from the Pac-12. Now they have to go on the road and take on this much better Missouri team and I can see another blowout similar to last week's three-touchdown loss. The Cowboys offense is really struggling with its rookie quarterback after losing Josh Allen to the NFL. This looks like an improved Missouri defense and they should be able to shut the freshman quarterback down. Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Wyoming is 2-5 ATS after a double-digit loss at home and they have had a problem bouncing back after blowout losses in the past. Wyoming is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine September games. The SEC dominated the rest of college football last week. I think that will continue this week in the nonconference games and I am looking for a blowout here from the Tigers and Drew Lock. This spread has already moved up from 16.5 to 18.0 and that tells me where the sharp money is on this game. Lay the points and go with Mizzou.
4-Unit Play. Take #379 Cincinnati (+1.5) over Miami, OH (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
The Bearcats scored a big upset last week at UCLA. They were 15-point underdogs in that game and won outright over the Bruins. They are on the road again this week but much closer to home. This is a rivalry game with nearby Miami for the Victory Bell. The wrong team is favored in this one. Miami is coming off a tough loss at home to Marshall last week. That game was not as close as the 35-21 score looked. Marshall was up 28-7 in the second half of this game and 35-21 before Miami scored a garbage time touchdown. This Cincinnati team is even better than Marshall and the Bearcats have beaten Miami 12 straight times. Cincinnati went on the road and beat Miami 21-17 last year as a 3.5-point underdog and they haven't had much of a problem with the Redhawks over the past several years. I like Cincinnati to get the job done here.
4-Unit Play. Take #382 Texas (-23) over Tulsa (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8)
Texas is coming off another disappointing loss to Maryland last week on the road. That was a strange game. That game included a long weather delay in the second half that took away Texas' momentum. But now the Longhorns are back home and they need a big win here. Tulsa struggled against Central Arkansas last week. They gave up 27 points and did not cover the spread in a 38-27 win. They are really going to struggle with an improved Texas team in this one. The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a loss. Tulsa is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and they are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against teams from the Big 12. Last year Texas lost its opener to Maryland and then turned around and beat San Jose State 56-0. I do not think that Texas will win that big this week against Tulsa. But I do think that they will get a blowout win. I had this spread at 29 so I think that there is some value here with this team. Look for the Longhorns to bounce back. Lay the points.
