Saturday 7/19/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 17, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 17, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 17, 2014

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Saturday, July 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (1 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/19/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 17, 2014

CFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Saturday, July 19

7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games

superbeets · Jul 18, 2014

Danish SAS Ligaen Su 20Jul 13:00

OB Odense

v

Hobro IK

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		4/7	14/5	5	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT OB ODENSE	RECENT FORM
ALHLAWHWHLAL Most recent	Unknown	–-–-–-–-–-–- Most recent

KEY STAT: Hobro have lost all four of their pre-season friendlies

EXPERT VERDICT: Newly promoted Hobro have had a far from ideal pre-season, badly struggling in friendlies against lower-league opposition. Troels Bech's first campaign at Odense was a tail of survival, but they should have far too much for the new boys here.

RECOMMENDATION: OB
3

superbeets · Jul 18, 2014

Danish SAS Ligaen Su 20Jul 16:00

Silkeborg

v

FC Copenhagen

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		9/2	3	4/7	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SILKEBORG	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-–-–- Most recent	1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 3 2 - 0	HDALHDAWAWHW Most recent

KEY STAT: Copenhagen lost only one of their last nine Superliga games

EXPERT VERDICT: Copenhagen were unable to retain their Superliga title last season and their estimated €10 million spending spree rightfully sees them installed as favourites this time around. Silkeborg bounced back from their relegation at the first attempt and their only priority this term will be staying off the bottom.

RECOMMENDATION: Copenhagen
3

superbeets · Jul 18, 2014

Danish SAS Ligaen Su 20Jul 18:00

Midtjylland

v

Brondby

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		6/4	23/10	7/4	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MIDTJYLLAND	RECENT FORM
HWADHWALHLAL Most recent	0 - 1 5 - 2 1 - 1 1 - 1	AWHDADHWHDAD Most recent

KEY STAT: Brondby won two of the three meetings between these sides last season

EXPERT VERDICT: This pair took Copenhagen right to the wire battling for the second Champions League spot last year, with both falling agonisingly short. The away side look to have strengthened well over summer and may be Copenhagen's nearest challengers. They look a fair price for an away win.

RECOMMENDATION: Brondby
1

superbeets · Jul 18, 2014

League of Ireland Su 20Jul 19:00

Dundalk

v

Athlone Town

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		1/5	6	10	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DUNDALK	RECENT FORM
HDADAWHWAWHL Most recent	Unknown	HWALHWADHLHW Most recent

KEY STAT: Athlone have scored 11 goals in their last four matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Bookmakers don’t give bottom club Athlone Town a prayer against high-flying Dundalk, but the visitors have shown signs of improvement recently with just one defeat in four. Dundalk needed a stoppage-time penalty to beat them in April and if the hosts are tired after their Europa League tie against Hajduk then Athlone could cause them problems.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

superbeets · Jul 19, 2014

Danish SAS Ligaen Mo 21Jul 18:00

Esbjerg

v

Randers Freja

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		21/20	12/5	13/5	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ESBJERG	RECENT FORM
HDAWHWAWHDAD Most recent	2 - 2 4 - 0 1 - 3 2 - 2	AWHDHLALADHD Most recent

KEY STAT: Randers were winless in their final five Superliga games last term

EXPERT VERDICT: These two middle-of-the-road sides won’t be troubling the top end this season, but Esbjerg are capable of following up on their Europa League qualification of last campaign. Randers proved to be something of a bogey team last year, winning all three meetings, but the home side should put things right.

RECOMMENDATION: Esbjerg
2

dodo97 · Jul 19, 2014

Do Ian Cameron's (Sportsmemo) CFL plays ever get posted here? Curious to see what he likes. I enjoy his podcasts.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

dodo97 said:
Do Ian Cameron's (Sportsmemo) CFL plays ever get posted here? Curious to see what he likes. I enjoy his podcasts.

hardly ever if at all.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5400 Class Rating: 36

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SHADY WAYS 9/5

# 5 MORRISON MIST 4/1

# 4 LADYLOOKINFORGOLD 3/1

I think SHADY WAYS is a very good choice. This filly with Medina in the saddle makes her a contender. Has solid early lick and will probably fare soundly versus this group of horses in this race. MORRISON MIST - Must be in sound condition if the trainer is bringing her back so soon.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SA - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 92

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED IN A STATE BRED RACE AND HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 19 ALLOWED 4 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1A AFT 12/1

# 5 DOIMAKEYAHAPPY 2/1

# 7 BECKNERVILLE 5/1

I think AFT is a decent selection and could score at a price in here. The price could be right on this one. The conditioner wheels this one back soon to race again. DOIMAKEYAHAPPY - He has been running strongly and the Speed Figures are among the best in this field. This gelding with Delacruz in the saddle makes him a key contender. BECKNERVILLE - Has been racing solidly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me give my vote to this gelding.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:24pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ARATHORN (ML=5/1)

ARATHORN - McKee and Smith getting together are a handicapper's friend. Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Sub-par outing last race out at Indiana Downs was due to the off-going (he ran fourth). Expect better in this race on a fast track. He has the uppermost earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DANCE FLOOR MANIAC (ML=9/5), #6 AKAPESCHE (ML=4/1), #7 DRIFTING WIND (ML=9/2),

DANCE FLOOR MANIAC - You should normally wager against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. There may be a set back this time out, after the good effort last time out. AKAPESCHE - Earned a substandard fig last time around the track in a $4,000 Claiming race on July 10th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating. DRIFTING WIND - Tough to take this runner at the odds after the finish (third) in the last event. In any affair of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs of late. Recorded a run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race in a $10,000 Claiming race on June 3rd. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #5 ARATHORN on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Sacramento - Race #7 - Post: 4:21pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 IMPLICATED (ML=2/1)
#7 SUN KISS (ML=15/1)

IMPLICATED - This jock and conditioner have a fabulous winning pct when they are put together. You don't need to look any further. This horse has my money. Way too much pace. You have to consider the solid works of late. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a crucial selection factor. This animal is ranked number 1 in this group. SUN KISS - This mount should be rocking and rolling in the lane.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 LIVELAUGHLOVE (ML=3/1), #1 STREAMLINER (ML=9/2), #9 SIZZLING BEL (ML=8/1),

LIVELAUGHLOVE - Oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1 make this horse a pass by my criteria. STREAMLINER - Had to show me much more than that in the last race. Never made much of an impact. Don't feel this steed will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's Equibase class figure. SIZZLING BEL - Doesn't seem to be worth 8/1 this time out. Pass on her this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #3 IMPLICATED to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at North Side Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 4:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$625 - NON WINNERS $515 L6 OR $88 PS IN 2013-14

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 KAITLINS KOWGIRL 5/2

# 3 ST PADDYS LUCK 7/2

# 2 MANIC HISPANIC 9/2

KAITLINS KOWGIRL is the most competitive play in this race. Cannot put a finger on it, but strongly consider this mare for a wager. Could provide us a win based on very good recent speed ratings - earning an avg of 72. With a 71 average class figure, this solid standardbred has one of the most solid class edges in the bunch. ST PADDYS LUCK - A very good play in here as he has one of the highest winning stats in the field as well as super credentials all around. This entrant looks dangerous. Take a good look at the 70 average speed rating. MANIC HISPANIC - Have to think about a contender coming out of the North Side Downs 2 position. The win pct is very good, way above normal. Could surprise us at a fairly reasonable price. Don't leave out.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Del Mar

RACE 9 - DEL MAR THOROUGHBRED CLUB - 6:04 PM PACIFIC POST

The San Clemente Handicap

8.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE II THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#7 SANDIVA
#12 MY CONQUESTADORY
#8 ISTANFORD
#10 SHEZA SMOKE SHOW

#7 SANDIVA, an Irish bred entry, is 5-1 in the morning line, takes a class drop (-11), and is the overall speed leader in this graded stakes field racing at the mile distance on the turf, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #12 MY CONQUESTADORY, a 9-2 shot, has hit the board in three of her four career starts to date, winning twice in her first two "adventures."

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #7 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 4:09 PM EASTERN POST

The Sanford Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#9 CINCO CHARLIE
#2 SILVERHILL
#8 NONNA'S BOY
#4 BIG TROUBLE

Well folks ... if you enjoy a little Thoroughbred Racing History to accompany your handicapping efforts today ... the only loss in the great Man o War's career occurred in the 1919 Sanford, when he was defeated by a horse named Upset. Off to a bad start, Man o War made up all but half a length. In later years, Willie Knapp, the rider of the winner, said, "I've always been kind of sorry I beat him. He was too much of a horse for that." The race is named for the Sanford family. In Saratoga's early days, the Sanford horses, many of whom were named after members of the Mohawk tribe, were often walked to the racetrack from the family's Hurricana Farm in Amsterdam. Prior to 1927 the race was run as the Sanford Memorial Stakes. Here in the 100th renewal of this graded stakes test ... #9 CINCO CHARLIE is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field, and has nice early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint. He's undefeated in a two race career .. winning both in "POWER RUN FASHION." He's out of the Indian Charlie lineage, whose progeny have hit the board in 48% of nearly 9,000 combined lifetime starts. For your information folks, Indian Charlie also qualifies for my Three Star Sire list ... if you would like a description of the rigid rules that I "employ" to make this list, kindly send me an email ... and yes ... this list, and the "rules" are indeed free!

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Alberta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 2:55 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$2700 - CLAIMING 4000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 HECTOR PROTECTOR 3/1

# 8 WESTERN CHROME 6/1

# 2 NATIONAL INTEREST 2/1

If you want a great play this time, feast your eyes on HECTOR PROTECTOR. This solid standardbred looks dangerous considering the high class markings. Don't throw out of any exotics. Battling soundly, earned a formidable speed rating in his last race (74). Gelding has one of the strongest win percentages in the group of animals and that could be the deciding factor when they cross the wire. WESTERN CHROME - Could beat this bunch, just look at the TrackMaster SR - 76 - from his last race. Strong driver-trainer ratings make this horse a sharp choice. Very likely will be putting money down for this one. NATIONAL INTEREST - Could be the top in the grouping here, showing very nice ratings of late. Avg speed is a solid 83. This race horse has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 83 average class number. Should play well in this race.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jul 19, 2014

Northfield: Saturday 7/19 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

Race 8: 5 / 1 / 1,3,4 / 2,3,5,6 = $12

Best Bet: CORNERBACK (7th)

Spot Play: NOAH COUNT (9th)

Race 1

(4) FRISK THE TOWN looked like a winner before the miscue and should offer the best value of the contenders. (5) COOTER DUNN freshman colt will be tough to beat even with a suspect pilot as long as he stays trotting. (2) CROWNED WITH GLORY has stayed flat in all of his starts and owns the best win in the field by far.

Race 2

(4) UF FAST FEELIN has been consistently putting in good efforts and should be in line for a decent trip. (5) BIG BOSSMAN could have the most upside in the field but looks to offer low value; fires early. (1) FEELIN SPEEDY gets the best post and has room to improve.

Race 3

(4) LANTERNS CHIP gets sent out for proven connections and has a good burst of speed off the gate. (7) I KNOW MY CHIP two-year-old is two for two but faces his toughest test yet; threat. (5) BK'S MAGIC MAN will offer a big price and could hit the ticket with some racing luck.

Race 4

(1) CHIP'S DREAMER raced gamely to a tough opponent last out and would be tough to beat with a similar effort. (9) FULL FORCE has good gate speed and should get a great trip up close. (4) LOOKSLIKEFIRE had a win at this level the start prior; threat.

Race 5

In a field with few contenders (4) CHIPS A MILLION should get a crack at the favorite late and could be sitting on a big effort with the second time lasix. (2) KICK A LOT was super impressive last out drawing off and the freshman trotter should get a fairly easy lead. (1) MISCHIEVOUS CHIP two-year-old colt should be in a great spot if he stays on gait.

Race 6

(1) FRISKIE ADAM is undefeated on the year, draws the best post, and will look to ration out his speed. (2) CHANCE I MIGHT pacer is ultra-consistent but would need more to hit the top spot. (3) DIAMONDKEEPER gets sent out for the top barn in the country which can never be overlooked.

Race 7

(3) CORNERBACK gelding was an easy winner in his debut and should have more to offer. (6) NOBLES FINESSE raced greenly last start but did flash some ability and should be ready for an improved effort. (1) INDIAN SPIRIT gets the best post and should be in line for a ground-saving trip.

Race 8

(5) GRAY CAMO was impressive last out taking his time to get to the lead before stepping on the gas late. (1) BORN VILLAIN was no match last out to the top choice but does have plenty of room to improve. (2) RC FRISKIE improved greatly last out and has some upside.

Race 9

(1) NOAH COUNT has good gate speed and has been racing gamely against older, more seasoned opponents. (5) MASTER MIGHTY could get a crack late from up close; threat. (8) SOUL TRAIN looks to have the most ability but needs to overcome a terrible post.

Race 10

(4) LONESOME ATTACK as long as the pacer doesn't get caught up in an early speed duel he should have a big chance for a victory. (3) ARTIST NIGHT was razor sharp in his first start off the layoff and should be better second start back. (1) TRUE TO MACH beat a really nice field last out convincingly and gets the best post.

Race 11

(3) ROMPAWAY GALAXY gelding wins for fun if he stays trotting. (5) CAN'TCUTTHATCHIP is on a nice win streak and would be the horse to beat should the top choice falter. (6) HOORAY FOR WILLIE could also find himself with a big chance in the right scenario.

Race 12 - Battle of Lake Erie

(3) BOLT THE DUER will be sitting no less than a pocket trip into a big-time speed duel. The impeccably bred stallion gets a big post edge and is in a touch softer. (4) CLEAR VISION eight-year-old is the key to the race in how the scenario unfolds. If the pacer ends up parked the mile it could set up for closers. (1) NIGHT PRO has won twenty-one races in twenty-eight starts and gets a chance to prove he can pace with the best; threat.

Race 13

(3) JS TANGO went a big effort last out down in class and will be tough to beat with a similar effort. (2) HAWAII AND SUN has been facing much tougher and will look to do some damage down in class. (1) CRAIG MICHAEL was a game winner last out but faces tougher.

Race 14

(6) KAHOKU gets a big driver change and should offer good value. The nice looking trotter could change things up a bit and try to leave for position. (8) ROSE RUN LOGAN gelding has been lights out when he minds his manners; short price. (2) ANNIE'S ROCKETMAN will be sitting on the lead or in the pocket but would need some luck to hit the top spot.

Race 15

(4) ALLAMERICAN PEWTER is just now rounding back into racing shape and picks up a much better pilot. (3) GUN SHOW has yet to win on the year but takes a big drop in class. (2) ALLAMERICAN COMET is also just now coming back from a long layoff and has lots of room to improve.