SPORTS WAGERS
UCONN +5½ over SMU
The Mustangs are one of the hottest teams in the country with 10 straight win to go along with a 21st place ranking in the polls. SMU is a lock for the Main Event but they have some unfinished business to attend to first. The Mustangs are currently one game ahead of Cincinnati in the win column for first place in the AAC and they haven’t lost since a 66-64 defeat at Cincinnati on Jan. 12. In the rematch game against the Bearcats 13 days ago, SMU won 60-51. However, the Mustangs trailed by nine points with 10 minutes remaining and Cinci went ice cold. It appeared as though the Bearcats were going to beat them again, this time by double-digits but for the final 10 minutes they simply couldn’t knock down a shot. That was SMU’s best win of the year because a close looks shows that it has played mostly cupcakes and that Cincinnati (twice) is the only ranked team they have played all year. With a 24-4 record and that aforementioned 10 game winning streak, SMU’s résumé looks pretty sweet and now the market will pay inflated points to back them here. This is also a game the Mustangs could easily overlook, as they beat UConn by 20 earlier in the year and they’ll close out their regular season with two home games against Tulsa and Memphis on Thursday and next Saturday respectively.
With just one week left in the regular season, this is the time of year that motivation or lack thereof comes into question. That said, UConn has plenty of motivation, as it is vying for a first-round bye in the AAC Tournament from March 9-12 in Hartford. That’s significant because with a 14-13 overall record and a 9-6 conference mark, the Huskies only ticket to the Big Dance will come via a Conference Tournament win and don’t think it can’t happen because it can. UConn is hot and they’re good too. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games with four players averaging double-figures over that span. The Huskies also have a +9.6 scoring and +2.2 rebounding margin since Feb. 8. The Huskies played a much tougher out-of-conference schedule than SMU, which included games against Oregon, Syracuse and Ohio State. Kevin Ollie is one of the best prepped coaches in the country and this is the time of year that UConn often thrives. We’re calling the outright upset but the true value is in the inflated points we’re being
OKLAHOMA +109 over Kansas St
The Kansas State Wildcats life as a bubble team took a big hit with their 80-68 loss at home in its latest to Oklahoma State as a 3½-point favorite. While a loss to the Cowboys won't sink their season on its own, it's K-State's recent form that has it on the outside looking in. The Wildcats blew a 14-point lead to OSU and have now lost seven of their last nine games. That horrible run includes four straight losses at home. Wins over ranked West Virginia and Baylor still look good on paper, but with K-State unable to take care of business against the rest of the Big 12, all those signature wins accomplish is artificially increase the Wildcats' value. Kansas State has been favored seven times in 2017 and it has managed to cover just once in a three-point victory over two-win Texas as a 2-point favorite. The Wildcats lost five of those games outright and pushed in the other. K-State enters play today tied with both TCU and Texas Tech. As it turns out, K-State has those two squads on deck to finish the season. The more pressing issue, however, is that K-State is in extremely weak form and have the look of a team that has lost its confidence. That’s not the type of team we’re interested in spotting road points with.
These young Sooners might not be racking up wins but they’re racking up experience and they’re playing damn good ball heading into the Big 12 Tournament. Much was made when OU lost the services of one of their few seniors, Jordan Woodard three games ago, but their freshman and sophomores have responded averaging 65.6 points per game with the bench pitching in 30.3 PPG. The Sooners' team effort is encouraging and they are on the verge of being a force in the Big 12 as soon as next season. OU's young guns have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom and much of that has to do with just how deep the Big 12 is this season. In their last two games, the last place Sooners have gone toe-to-toe with ranked Baylor and in-state rival Oklahoma State. While it didn't get the win, OU covered both games and played their hearts out in a couple of very tough road games. It might be easy to discount the Sooners based on their position as Big 12 basement dwellers, but doing so may hurt your bankroll. OU’s position at the bottom of the standings only increases the value on the Sooners the rest of the way. The Big 12 is going to send its fair share of teams to The Big Dance but the Sooners are going to have to win their way in through the conference tournament. Until then, OU has a great opportunity to play spoiler for the rest of their conference brethren on the bubble and K-State is likely going to be its next victim. Wrong side favored.
