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Saturday 11/04/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Dr Bob
Massachusetts @ Mississippi St.
UMass quarterback Andrew Ford (7.0 yards per pass play) is doubtful to play and backup Ross Comis is more of a runner (6.1 yards per run) than he is a passer (5.6 yppp on 61 pass plays) so expect more running from the minutemen in this game. That will shorten the game a bit, which has my model leaning under, and how much Miss State wins by depends on how much their backups play in the 4th quarter.
Minnesota @ Michigan
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck made a mistake in switching quarterbacks from Conor Rhoda, who was pretty good (7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp) to Demry Croft, who has completed just 42.7% of his passes and has averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Whether Michigan has made a mistake in switching quarterbacks is yet to be determined, but Brandon Peters certainly looked good last week in completing 11 of 15 passes for 128 yards. I see value on Michigan because Minnesota’s offense isn’t as good as their season numbers with Croft at quarterback.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St.
The difference in this game is defense, as both teams are very good offensively (Oklahoma is +2.9 yppl and Oklahoma State is +1.8 yppl) while Oklahoma State is 1.2 yppl better than average defensively (excluding garbage time yards allowed by backups) while the Sooners are just 0.1 yppl better than average on that side of the ball. My math favors Oklahoma State by 4½ points so I’ll lean with the Cowboys.
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Wake Forest is a worthy opponent, even with the loss of top receiver Greg Dortch, who is out for the season. The Irish offense is very one-dimensional in favor of their great rushing attack but Wake Forest has been very good against the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yprp) and holding Louisville to 6.4 yprp last week was actually a good performance (the Cardinals would average 7.0 yprp on the road against an average team). The Irish should still be able to put up huge rushing numbers because they are so good in that aspect of their offense, but Brandon Wimbush is still very inconstant as a passer (51.8% completions) and Wake Forest should have decent success throwing the football even without Dortch. My math model favors Notre Dame by 12½ points so I’ll lean a big with the Demon Deacons.
LSU @ Alabama
LSU is not as good defensively this season as they normally are and the Tigers have had issues defending the run (5.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense), which is a major issue against an Alabama team that loves to run the ball and is among the best in the nation at doing so. My math model projects 290 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play for the Tide in this game and their defense should keep the Tigers’ offense in check, as they usually do.
Penn St. @ Michigan St.
It’s tough to know how Penn State will react after last week’s devastating come-from-ahead loss to Ohio State and I’m not sure if the Nittany Lions will have much left in their emotional tank after getting amped up to face Michigan and the Buckeyes the last two weeks. Michigan State has a very good defense but the offense will struggle against a very good Penn State defense. Overall, the math favors Penn State by just 8½ points so there really isn’t much value on the side – although Michigan State is 11-2 ATS as a conference dog of 3 points or more the last 7 seasons, including their 14-10 win as a double-digit dog at Michigan last month. I would lean under though.
Arizona @ USC
Kahlil Tate has won the Pac-12 offensive player of the week honor in all 4 weeks in which he has been the quarterback of the Wildcats and Arizona has averaged a 49 points on 568 yards at a ridiculous 9.5 yards per play. Tate has averaged 11.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 4 of those games and Arizona has averaged 7.5 yards per rushing play or higher in all 4 of those games – so those incredible offensive numbers do not appear to be a fluke given how consistently incredible they have been against some pretty good defensive teams that collectively are 0.3 yards per play better than average, which is better than USC’s defense (0.1 yppl better than average). I’m using Tate’s career yards per run average of 10.4 yards per run In my model rather than the 13.6 yprp he’s average this season and the math still projects 8.4 yprp for Arizona in this game and 9.1 yards per play.
USC, meanwhile, is projected to rack up 649 yards at 7.6 yards per play, which is enhanced by the large number of plays the Trojans are expected to run (because Arizona tends to score so quickly, which gives the ball back to USC). While Arizona is projected to average more yards per play the Wildcats aren’t going to run nearly as many plays (they’ve averaged a -30 in play differential the last 4 weeks) and overall the math favors USC by 6 points but with both teams scoring a bundle. I like the over in this game, as nobody yet has figured out how to stop Arizona’s offense with Tate at the controls and Arizona’s worse than average defense isn’t likely to slow down the Trojans, who will have more possessions than usual to rack up points.
South Florida @ Connecticut
My math model favors South Florida by 23.3 points but the Bulls’ major bowl dreams were dashed with last week’s home loss to Houston and teams coming off their first loss this late in the season have a tendency to letdown. I call it the bubble has burst letdown and it has been a consistent phenomenon. USF applies to a 13-45-1 ATS subset of a 48-90-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s loss so I’ll lean with the Huskies as a big home dog against a Florida team that won’t like playing in the cold weather.
Massachusetts @ Mississippi St.
UMass quarterback Andrew Ford (7.0 yards per pass play) is doubtful to play and backup Ross Comis is more of a runner (6.1 yards per run) than he is a passer (5.6 yppp on 61 pass plays) so expect more running from the minutemen in this game. That will shorten the game a bit, which has my model leaning under, and how much Miss State wins by depends on how much their backups play in the 4th quarter.
Minnesota @ Michigan
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck made a mistake in switching quarterbacks from Conor Rhoda, who was pretty good (7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp) to Demry Croft, who has completed just 42.7% of his passes and has averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Whether Michigan has made a mistake in switching quarterbacks is yet to be determined, but Brandon Peters certainly looked good last week in completing 11 of 15 passes for 128 yards. I see value on Michigan because Minnesota’s offense isn’t as good as their season numbers with Croft at quarterback.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St.
The difference in this game is defense, as both teams are very good offensively (Oklahoma is +2.9 yppl and Oklahoma State is +1.8 yppl) while Oklahoma State is 1.2 yppl better than average defensively (excluding garbage time yards allowed by backups) while the Sooners are just 0.1 yppl better than average on that side of the ball. My math favors Oklahoma State by 4½ points so I’ll lean with the Cowboys.
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Wake Forest is a worthy opponent, even with the loss of top receiver Greg Dortch, who is out for the season. The Irish offense is very one-dimensional in favor of their great rushing attack but Wake Forest has been very good against the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yprp) and holding Louisville to 6.4 yprp last week was actually a good performance (the Cardinals would average 7.0 yprp on the road against an average team). The Irish should still be able to put up huge rushing numbers because they are so good in that aspect of their offense, but Brandon Wimbush is still very inconstant as a passer (51.8% completions) and Wake Forest should have decent success throwing the football even without Dortch. My math model favors Notre Dame by 12½ points so I’ll lean a big with the Demon Deacons.
LSU @ Alabama
LSU is not as good defensively this season as they normally are and the Tigers have had issues defending the run (5.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense), which is a major issue against an Alabama team that loves to run the ball and is among the best in the nation at doing so. My math model projects 290 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play for the Tide in this game and their defense should keep the Tigers’ offense in check, as they usually do.
Penn St. @ Michigan St.
It’s tough to know how Penn State will react after last week’s devastating come-from-ahead loss to Ohio State and I’m not sure if the Nittany Lions will have much left in their emotional tank after getting amped up to face Michigan and the Buckeyes the last two weeks. Michigan State has a very good defense but the offense will struggle against a very good Penn State defense. Overall, the math favors Penn State by just 8½ points so there really isn’t much value on the side – although Michigan State is 11-2 ATS as a conference dog of 3 points or more the last 7 seasons, including their 14-10 win as a double-digit dog at Michigan last month. I would lean under though.
Arizona @ USC
Kahlil Tate has won the Pac-12 offensive player of the week honor in all 4 weeks in which he has been the quarterback of the Wildcats and Arizona has averaged a 49 points on 568 yards at a ridiculous 9.5 yards per play. Tate has averaged 11.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 4 of those games and Arizona has averaged 7.5 yards per rushing play or higher in all 4 of those games – so those incredible offensive numbers do not appear to be a fluke given how consistently incredible they have been against some pretty good defensive teams that collectively are 0.3 yards per play better than average, which is better than USC’s defense (0.1 yppl better than average). I’m using Tate’s career yards per run average of 10.4 yards per run In my model rather than the 13.6 yprp he’s average this season and the math still projects 8.4 yprp for Arizona in this game and 9.1 yards per play.
USC, meanwhile, is projected to rack up 649 yards at 7.6 yards per play, which is enhanced by the large number of plays the Trojans are expected to run (because Arizona tends to score so quickly, which gives the ball back to USC). While Arizona is projected to average more yards per play the Wildcats aren’t going to run nearly as many plays (they’ve averaged a -30 in play differential the last 4 weeks) and overall the math favors USC by 6 points but with both teams scoring a bundle. I like the over in this game, as nobody yet has figured out how to stop Arizona’s offense with Tate at the controls and Arizona’s worse than average defense isn’t likely to slow down the Trojans, who will have more possessions than usual to rack up points.
South Florida @ Connecticut
My math model favors South Florida by 23.3 points but the Bulls’ major bowl dreams were dashed with last week’s home loss to Houston and teams coming off their first loss this late in the season have a tendency to letdown. I call it the bubble has burst letdown and it has been a consistent phenomenon. USF applies to a 13-45-1 ATS subset of a 48-90-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s loss so I’ll lean with the Huskies as a big home dog against a Florida team that won’t like playing in the cold weather.
