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Saturday 11/04/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Dr Bob
Clemson @ No Carolina St.
NC State’s star back Nyheim Hines (654 yards at 5.5 ypr) has been upgraded to probable, which will certainly help the Wolfpack given how poorly they ran at Notre Dame last week after Hines was injured after just 2 runs (just 2.8 yards per rushing play). NC State does tend to play better against better competition, aside from last week, but the Clemson defense is just too good and I’d favor the Tigers by 6 points even if NC State quarterback Ryan Finley does not throw an interception (he threw his first of the season last week). My math favors Clemson by 7 ½ points so I’d steer clear of the side while leaning under.
Ohio St. @ Iowa
My math model favors Ohio State by 19.3 points after factoring in the absence of the Buckeyes’ top receiver Parris Campbell, who has averaged 10.5 yards per pass thrown to him, but Iowa has been a good underdog for many, many years, as teams that play conservatively on offense and play good defense often are. Iowa is 23-8 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 18-3 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. The last few seasons the Hawkeyes are 3-0 ATS as a big dog, losing by just 2 points as a 10 point home dog to Wisconsin in 2014, beating Michigan here last season as a 21 ½ point dog and nearly upsetting Penn State on this field earlier this season as a 12 ½ point dog (lost 19-21). I really like the way Ohio State is playing and they dominated Penn State last week from the line of scrimmage (7.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl), but I’ll pass on this one since I don’t want to go against Iowa as a big home dog.
Iowa St. @ West Virginia
West Virginia is an overrated team and Iowa State is legit. The Cyclones have a very good defense that has allowed just 18.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team and they have held good offensive teams Texas Tech and TCU to just 20 points combined at 4.6 yppl the last two weeks. West Virginia does have a good offense (1.0 yppl better than average) but the Mounties’ attack is only 0.1 yppl better than the ISU defense and Iowa State’s offense (+0.1 yppl) has an advantage over a WVU defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Iowa State also has better special teams and my math model picks this game dead-even at 29.4 points apiece
Clemson @ No Carolina St.
NC State’s star back Nyheim Hines (654 yards at 5.5 ypr) has been upgraded to probable, which will certainly help the Wolfpack given how poorly they ran at Notre Dame last week after Hines was injured after just 2 runs (just 2.8 yards per rushing play). NC State does tend to play better against better competition, aside from last week, but the Clemson defense is just too good and I’d favor the Tigers by 6 points even if NC State quarterback Ryan Finley does not throw an interception (he threw his first of the season last week). My math favors Clemson by 7 ½ points so I’d steer clear of the side while leaning under.
Ohio St. @ Iowa
My math model favors Ohio State by 19.3 points after factoring in the absence of the Buckeyes’ top receiver Parris Campbell, who has averaged 10.5 yards per pass thrown to him, but Iowa has been a good underdog for many, many years, as teams that play conservatively on offense and play good defense often are. Iowa is 23-8 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 18-3 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. The last few seasons the Hawkeyes are 3-0 ATS as a big dog, losing by just 2 points as a 10 point home dog to Wisconsin in 2014, beating Michigan here last season as a 21 ½ point dog and nearly upsetting Penn State on this field earlier this season as a 12 ½ point dog (lost 19-21). I really like the way Ohio State is playing and they dominated Penn State last week from the line of scrimmage (7.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl), but I’ll pass on this one since I don’t want to go against Iowa as a big home dog.
Iowa St. @ West Virginia
West Virginia is an overrated team and Iowa State is legit. The Cyclones have a very good defense that has allowed just 18.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team and they have held good offensive teams Texas Tech and TCU to just 20 points combined at 4.6 yppl the last two weeks. West Virginia does have a good offense (1.0 yppl better than average) but the Mounties’ attack is only 0.1 yppl better than the ISU defense and Iowa State’s offense (+0.1 yppl) has an advantage over a WVU defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Iowa State also has better special teams and my math model picks this game dead-even at 29.4 points apiece
